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CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION: EVALUATING CLOSING THE OPPORTUNITY GAP

1.01 This chapter introduces this interim evaluation of Closing the Opportunity Gap (hereafter CtOG). It comprises four parts:

• it relates CtOG to the wider context of social inclusion policy in Scotland and the UK;
• it describes the key elements of CtOG;
• it sets out the terms of reference for this interim evaluation;
• it outlines the structure of the report.

The period to which this evaluation of Closing the Opportunity Gap pertains, is that of the second Scottish Executive

TACKLING POVERTY AND SOCIAL EXCLUSION IN THE UK

1.02 The inter-related, but discrete, goals of tackling poverty and social exclusion came to the fore in the UK with the election of the Labour Government on 1 May 1997. Successive Labour Governments have re-affirmed the importance of tackling poverty and social exclusion to the work of UK government.

1.03 Since 1997, the UK Government have sustained a multi-faceted approach to tackling poverty and social exclusion. Of particular note to this interim evaluation of CtOG, are the following characteristics of this approach:

• The commitment made in 1999 to eradicate child poverty within a generation
• Investment in a welfare-to-work strategy, and the guiding principle of 'work for those who can and security for those who cannot' ². This was exemplified by numerous active labour market and employability policies, such as the various New Deals implemented since 1997 ³.
• The formation of the Social Exclusion Unit ( SEU) to tackle particular forms of social exclusion ( e.g. teenage pregnancy, rough sleeping) and facilitate a cross-government policy response. The SEU was replaced with the Social Exclusion Taskforce, which published Reaching Out, its action plan on social exclusion in November 2006 ⁴.
• The publication since 1999 of an annual Opportunities For All report, to describe the Government's strategy and monitor progress in addressing poverty and social exclusion ⁵.
• The retention as reserved powers in Westminster of two of the main levers of government control over poverty - welfare benefits and taxation policy - following the introduction of devolution in July 1999 ⁶.

FROM THE SOCIAL JUSTICE STRATEGY TO CLOSING THE OPPORTUNITY
GAP

1.04 Since 1999, the Scottish Executive has pursued a strategy to tackle poverty and facilitate social inclusion which complements the approach of the UK Government. For example, the Scottish Executive shares the belief and investment in active labour market and welfare-to-work measures ( e.g. Skillseekers, Worknet, Modern Apprenticeships ⁷), has endorsed the commitment to eradicate child poverty within a generation, and it has not used its tax-varying powers to diverge from UK policy.

1.05 Closing the Opportunity Gap ( CtOG) is the name of the Scottish Executive's current strategy to tackle poverty and disadvantage in Scotland ⁸. CtOG superseded the initial approach to promoting social inclusion - the Social Justice Strategy ( SJS) - in 2004. The SJS comprised ten long-term Targets and twenty-nine Milestones across five population groups ⁹, which were monitored on an annual basis between 1999 and 2003 ¹⁰.

1.06 The replacement of the SJS by CtOG resulted from a Cabinet review of social inclusion policy led by the Minister for Communities. The development of CtOG reflected the Scottish Executive's desire to focus on the most important issues and activities to overcome poverty in Scotland for which the Scottish Executive has devolved responsibility.

CLOSING THE OPPORTUNITY GAP: AIMS, OBJECTIVES AND TARGETS

1.07 CtOG adopts a similar approach to tackling poverty and exclusion to that pursued by the UK Government through Opportunities for All; i.e. it is a wide-ranging strategy which operates at three levels: Aims, Objectives and Targets.

1.08 The three CtOG Aims are:

• To prevent individuals or families from falling into poverty
• To provide routes out of poverty for individuals and families
• To sustain individuals or families in a lifestyle free from poverty.

1.09 CtOG comprises six high level Objectives, which were announced on July 12, 2004:

1. To increase the chances of sustained employment for vulnerable and disadvantaged groups - in order to lift them permanently out of poverty
2. To improve the confidence and skills of the most disadvantaged children and young people - in order to provide them with the greatest chance of avoiding poverty when they leave school
3. To reduce the vulnerability of low income families to financial exclusion and multiple debts - in order to prevent them becoming over-indebted and/or to lift them out of poverty
4. To regenerate the most disadvantaged neighborhoods - in order that people living there can take advantage of job opportunities and improve their quality of life
5. To increase the rate of improvement of the health status of people living in the most deprived communities - in order to improve their quality of life, including their employability prospects
6. To improve access to high quality services for the most disadvantaged groups and individuals in rural communities - in order to improve their quality of life and enhance their access to opportunity.

1.10 CtOG also comprises ten lower level Targets. Each Target has a designated lead officer, the Target Owner, based within a Scottish Executive Department, who is responsible for monitoring policy. Full information of targets and monitoring plans are available on the Scottish Executive Closing the Opportunity Gap website ¹¹.

1.11 The ten CtOG Targets were launched on December 9, 2004:

A. Reduce the number of workless people dependent on DWP benefits in Glasgow, North & South Lanarkshire, Renfrewshire & Inverclyde, Dundee, and West Dunbartonshire by 2007 and by 2010.
B. Reduce the proportion of 16-19 year olds who are not in education, training or employment by 2008.
C. Public sector and large employers to tackle aspects of in-work poverty by providing employees with the opportunity to develop skills and progress in their career. NHS Scotland will set an example by providing 1000 job opportunities, with support for training and progression once in post, between 2004 and 2006 to people who are currently economically inactive or unemployed.
D. To reduce health inequalities by increasing the rate of improvement for under 75 Coronary Heart Disease mortality and under 75 cancer mortality (1995-2003) for the most deprived communities by 15% by 2008.
E. By 2008, ensure that children and young people who need it have an integrated package of appropriate health, care and education support.
F. Increase the average tariff score of the lowest attaining 20 per cent of S4 pupils by 5% by 2008.
G. By 2007 ensure that at least 50% of all 'looked after' young people leaving care have entered education, employment or training.
H. By 2008, improve service delivery in rural areas so that agreed improvements to accessibility and quality are achieved for key services in remote and disadvantaged communities.
J. To promote community regeneration of the most deprived neighborhoods, through improvements by 2008 in employability, education, health, access to local services, and quality of the local environment.
K. By 2008 increase the availability of appropriate financial services and money advice to disadvantaged communities to reduce their vulnerability to financial exclusion and multiple debts.

1.12 CtOG Aims, Objectives and Targets should not be regarded as exclusive or discrete. Indeed, there is an assumption that CtOG Targets will contribute to the achievement of the Objectives and that, in turn, Objectives will contribute toward the achievement of Aims.

1.13 Furthermore, there is a web of interactions and causal links across CtOG Aims, Objectives and Targets which extends beyond these directional links. For example:

• Work to effect change in any single CtOG Target can also effect change in other CtOG Targets; e.g. actions in pursuit of Target J (community regeneration) may contribute to Target A (reducing worklessness)
• Work to effect change in a particular CtOG Target can also effect change across a range of CtOG Objective; e.g. improvements in Target F (educational attainment) may impact positively in Objectives 1 (sustained employment), and 2 (confidence of young people)

1.14 In addition, CtOG measures are only one element in a much wider range of activity to tackle poverty and social inclusion in Scotland undertaken by:

• UK Government
• Scottish Executive
• Local Government
• Voluntary and Community sector
• Private enterprise

EVALUATING CLOSING THE OPPORTUNITY GAP

1.15 The Scottish Executive undertakes continual monitoring of progress towards the ten CtOG Targets. This interim evaluation is the first phase in monitoring the overall effectiveness of CtOG. and the effectiveness of Departmental activity contributing to the achievement of these. The interim evaluation of CtOG detailed in this report concentrates on the first phase of the third part of the CtOG evaluation; i.e. analysing progress to January 2007 in progress towards the Aims, Objectives and Targets respectively of the strategy.

1.16 Such an evaluation requires judicious interpretation of data, careful contextualisation of activities and outcomes to assess the net contribution of CtOG, and analysis of the various associations between CtOG Targets, Objectives and Aims. The challenges encountered in this analysis and assessment are discussed in Chapter 2.

AIMS OF THIS REPORT

1.17 The three primary aims in this report are to analyse progress towards:

• achieving the overarching CtOG Aim of tackling poverty in Scotland
• fulfilling each of the six higher-level CtOG Objectives
• attaining the outcomes set for each of the ten lower-order CtOG Targets.

1.18 Supplementing these primary aims are two subsidiary aims:

• to appraise the extent to which CtOG is contributing towards the Scottish Executive's Equalities agenda
• to advise on future measurement of CtOG Aims, Objectives and Targets and the relationships between these in the context of wider Scottish Executive and UK social inclusion policy

1.19 It is important to clarify the scope of this evaluation: CtOG is evaluated as given: the evaluation concentrates on the impact and effectiveness of CtOG, it is not the objective to discuss whether or not CtOG would be the most effective way for the Scottish Executive to tackle poverty in Scotland.

METHODS

1.20 This interim evaluation has made best use of available data by contextualising the results, making clear the limitations of existing data, and ensuring that the analysis undertaken serves as an appropriate baseline for future evaluation. This is achieved by adhering to the following guiding principles:

• assessing progress in terms of the direction of travel (is progress being made?) and the pace of change (is sufficient progress being made for the goal to be achieved by the end date?)
• focusing evaluation on the specified target populations
• disaggregating data wherever possible to assess the impact of CtOG on Equalities groups and other key sub-populations
• focusing on the primary goal of each Objective, and making reference to the likely impact of this primary goal on each secondary goal, where appropriate
• explaining how Objectives are interpreted and measured, and providing clear explanations of what constitutes progress for each
• considering the array of associations between and among CtOG Aims, Objectives and Targets
• examining both absolute and relative progress; i.e. 'closing the gap'
• recognising that CtOG is a collective strategy when interpreting the significance of the relative contribution of different agencies to CtOG outputs and progress

1.21 This evaluation comprises three bodies of work; a fuller account of these methods is provided in Annex One.

1.22 Stage One comprised three tasks: evaluation of progress towards CtOG Aims, evaluation of progress towards CtOG Targets, and appraisal of the extent to which CtOG is contributing towards the Scottish Executive's Equalities agenda. These evaluations made use of available data sources.

1.23 Stage Two evaluated progress against the six CtOG Objectives, for the general Scottish population, for specific populations of Equalities groups and other key sub-populations, and generated recommendations for future analyses.

1.24 Stage Three returned to the preliminary analysis of progress against the three CtOG Aims (from Stage One) to evaluate the extent to which trends reflect CtOG interventions.

1.25 This interim evaluation is 'expert-led'. While a more participative approach to evaluation has certain merits, unfortunately the time constraints and over-riding objectives of the interim evaluation do not lend itself to such an approach.

REPORT STRUCTURE

1.26 This report is structured into five substantive Chapters, followed by a conclusion.

• Chapter Two outlines the challenges that must be overcome in evaluating CtOG at this time and the factors which must be borne in the mind throughout the report. This Chapter complements the more extensive account of the project methodology presented in Annex One.
• Chapter Three evaluates the Aims of CtOG, i.e. the extent to which CtOG has contributed toward the reduction of poverty in Scotland.
• Chapter Four evaluates the extent to which progress has been made for each of the six CtOG Objectives.
• Chapter Five summarises evidence for progress each of the ten CtOG Targets. This Chapter complements the more extensive review of Target evidence presented in Annex Four.
• Chapter Six summarises the evaluation of the impact of CtOG. Two further issues are considered: the extent to which CtOG is contributing toward the Equalities agenda in Scotland; and the extent to which CtOG itself is making a difference to the Targets, Objectives and Aims it is working towards.

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