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Destinations of Leavers from Scottish Schools: 2006/07

This Statistics Publication Notice presents national and Education Authority level information on the destinations of young people leaving Scottish schools (publicly funded and grant-aided secondary schools) and updates the publication "Destinations of Leavers from Scottish Schools: 2005/06". Data linking the destinations of school leavers to pupil characteristics is presented for the first time. In addition, the accompanying tables include limited information on leavers from independent secondary schools.

The Statistics Publication Notice and accompanying tables can be found on the Scottish Government Web Site: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/stats/bulletins/00631

The Main Findings for Leaver Destinations from Publicly Funded Secondary Schools are:

• Just under 87 per cent of 2006/07 school leavers are in positive destinations; higher education, further education, employment, voluntary work or training
• The proportion of young people entering full-time further or higher education has fallen slightly from just below 54 per cent in 2005/06 to just under 53 per cent in 2006/07
• The proportion of leavers entering employment has increased by around 2 percentage points to a little over 28 per cent in 2006/07
• The proportion who are unemployed and seeking employment or training has remained relatively stable at around 11 per cent since 2005/06
• The proportion who are unemployed and not seeking employment or training has decreased slightly to 1.5 per cent in 2006/07

More detailed analysis of these destinations is presented in the following sections. Firstly, information is provided on leavers who enter positive destinations, as defined in the Scottish Budget Spending Review 2007 ¹. Positive destinations therefore include higher education, further education, employment, voluntary work and training. The report then goes on to consider all other destinations and presents the results of an analysis of leaver destinations by gender and other pupil characteristics.

Leavers from Publicly Funded Secondary Schools who enter Positive Destinations

The proportion of school leavers entering positive destinations in 2006/07 is just under 87 per cent. A number of changes were made to the 2006/07 survey, which included collecting more detailed categories than in previous years. This means that this figure is not directly comparable to the proportion entering positive destinations in 2005/06, since those entering voluntary work ² can now be separately identified and included in the positive destination category.

Analysis of change over time

In order to allow time series comparisons, voluntary work is included under 'unemployed and not seeking' in the following sections.

Leavers from Publicly Funded Secondary Schools entering employment, training, Further Education or Higher Education

Percentage of School Leavers Entering Higher Education, Further Education, Employment or Training: 1992/93 to 2006/07

Using comparable definitions shows that there has been an increase of just over one percentage point in the proportion of leavers entering employment, training, FE or HE destinations on the previous year. The proportion of school leavers entering full-time employment is slightly over 28 per cent in 2006/07, which is about two percentage points higher than the 2005/06 figure of just over 26 per cent.

The proportion of school leavers entering training or full-time further education has not changed since 2005/06, remaining at around five per cent and just over 23 per cent respectively.

Leavers from Publicly Funded Secondary Schools who enter Other Destinations

All other destinations ³ have shown small falls since 2005/06. The 'unemployed and not seeking employment or training' category (which includes those entering voluntary work for consistency with previous years) has fallen slightly from just above two per cent in 2005/06 to 1.5 per cent in 2006/07.

School leavers with an unknown destination may be in a positive destination. Follow-up studies have shown that around 63 percent of those with an unknown destination in September are in positive destinations in March, suggesting that leavers with an unknown destination are less likely to enter positive destinations than those with known destinations.

Percentage of School Leavers Entering Unemployed Seeking, Unemployed Not Seeking, Other Known or Unknown Destinations: 1992/93: 2006/07

note: In 2002/03, the 'other known destinations' category was split into 'unemployed and seeking employment or training' and 'unemployed and not seeking employment or training'.
Unemployed and not seeking category includes those doing voluntary work.

Destinations of School Leavers from Publicly Funded Secondary Schools by Gender

Girls are more likely to enter full-time further or higher education than boys after leaving school, while boys are more likely to enter the categories of training, employment or unemployed and seeking.

A similar pattern has been observed in previous years, however since 2005/06 the differences between the genders has widened, particularly in employment and higher education destinations. The proportion of boys entering employment is now eleven percentage points higher than the proportion of girls entering employment, compared with nine percentage points higher in 2005/06. The proportion of girls entering further or higher education is just over 15 percentage points higher than the proportion of boys, compared with 14 percentage points higher in 2005/06.

Percentage of School Leavers from Publicly Funded Secondary Schools by Destination and Gender: 2006/07

note: Leavers going onto voluntary work are included under 'unemployed not seeking'

Destinations of School Leavers from Publicly Funded Secondary Schools by Other Characteristics

Analysis of school leaver characteristics and location help to identify the groups of young people who are at risk of not entering a positive destination when they leave school.

Living in one of the most deprived areas, as defined by the 2006 Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation ( SIMD) is a strong indicator that a school leaver is less likely to enter a positive destination. Around 77 per cent of school leavers from the ten per cent most deprived areas entered a positive destination compared with just over 93 per cent of those from the ten per cent least deprived areas. Similarly, just under twelve per cent of those from the most deprived areas entered higher education, compared with over half (53.3 per cent) of those from the least deprived areas.

Those school leavers who live in large urban areas are less likely to enter a positive destination than those from more rural areas, although this may be linked to deprivation since many deprived areas are in urban locations.

Staying-on in school past the minimum leaving age is a good indicator that the young person will enter a positive destination upon leaving school. Just over 94 per cent of school leavers who left at the end of S6 entered a positive destination, compared with around three quarters (76.5 per cent) of those who left at the end of S4.

Leavers with Additional Support Needs ( ASN) are less likely to enter a positive destination than those without. Almost 87 per cent of school leavers with no recorded ASN entered a positive destination compared with just under 83 per cent of those with a Record of Needs ( RoN) or a Co-ordinated Support Plan ( CSP) and almost 72 per cent of those with an Individualised Educational Programme, but no RoN or CSP.

Background Notes

1. National Statistics Publication

This is a National Statistics Publication. It has been produced to high professional standards set out in the National Statistics Code of Practice and Release Practice Protocol: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/about_ns/cop/default.asp

These statistics undergo regular quality assurance reviews to ensure that they meet customer needs. They are produced free from any political interference.

2. Sources

Information on the destination of leavers from publicly funded schools is provided to the Scottish Government by Careers Scotland who are part of Scottish Enterprise and Highlands & Islands Enterprise. This is the first year that the data has been supplied at the pupil level.

Unless otherwise stated, all figures relate to publicly funded secondary schools.

Information from independent schools is collected directly from the schools and has been collected at pupil level for the fourth year. Limited data on the characteristics of these leavers is available and has not been presented here.

Information on pupil characteristics, e.g. main learning difficulty, pupil stage, etc. is taken from the September 2006 Pupil Census: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2007/02/27083941/0

This is the first year that pupil level data has been available for publicly funded schools. The main advantage of this is that it allows the school leavers destination to be matched to other information held by the Scottish Government so that additional, more detailed analysis can be carried out.

A more detailed technical note detailing the process by which leaver destination was linked to pupil census results is published alongside this statistical publication and is available through: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/stats/bulletins/00631

The data relate to the latest known destination of leavers in September 2007. For example, a school leaver who left in June 2007 and travelled for several months but who is known to have taken up employment prior to September will be counted under 'employment'.

There are slight variations in previously published percentages for 2005/06. This is due to improved methods of cleaning the data.

Percentages may not always total 100 percent due to rounding.

3. School Leavers

A school leaver is classed as a young person of school leaving age who left school during or at the end of the school year, where the school year is taken to run from 1 August to 31 July.

In practice, many young people do not decide whether or not to leave school until after they have received the results of external examinations, have tried to get a job or achieve entry to further or higher education or training. For many pupils, therefore, it is only possible to identify later whether they have effectively left school by 31 July.

It should be noted that this Statistics Publication Notice does not contain information on the destinations of leavers from special schools. The number of leavers from these schools is small and fluctuates from year to year.

4. Leaver Destination

The following categories for leaver destination are included in the Statistics Publication Notice.

Positive: includes higher education, further education, training, voluntary work and employment. This is in line with the definition of positive destinations set out in Indicator 10 of the Scottish Budget Spending Review 2007: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2007/11/30090722/18

Full-time Higher Education: includes leavers following HND (Higher National Diploma) or HNC (Higher National Certificate) courses, degree courses, courses for the education and training of teachers and higher level courses for professional qualifications. It also includes programmes at a level higher than the standard of the New National Qualifications (Intermediate 1, Intermediate 2, the new Higher) which were introduced in 1999/00, Advanced Higher, introduced in 2001, Scottish Certificate of Sixth Year Studies, and the National Certificate of Education of England, Wales or Northern Ireland at Advanced Level. Leavers with a deferred, unconditional place in higher education have also been included in this category.

Full-time Further Education: includes leavers undertaking full-time education which is not higher education and who are no longer on a school roll.

Training: includes leavers who are on a training course and in receipt of an allowance or grant, such as Skillseekers, but who are not employed. It should be noted that a large proportion of leavers entering employment may also be participants in training such as Modern Apprenticeships.

Employment: includes those who are employed for a minimum of 21 hours per week and who are in receipt of payment from their employers. It includes young people undertaking training in employment through Skillseekers and Modern Apprenticeships. Where a leaver has more than one job, the leaver will be included in the 'employment' category if they work more than 21 hours per week in total.

Unemployed and seeking employment or training: includes those who are registered with Careers Scotland and are known by them to be seeking employment or training. This is based on regular contact between Careers Scotland and the client. This does not refer to the definition of 'unemployed' used by the Benefits Agency to calculate published unemployment rates.

Unemployed and not seeking employment or training: includes all those individuals who are not seeking employment or training for a range of reasons. The reasons may involve sickness, prison, pregnancy, caring for children or other dependents, involvement in full time unpaid voluntary work or taking time out. It may also include school leavers who are employed and/or in education part time for less than 21 hours per week.

NOTE: the above two categories are comparable to the single 'other known destination' category from publications prior to 2002/03.

Unknown: includes all leavers whose destination is not known either to Careers Scotland or to the school attended.

5. Interpretation of figures for individual Education Authorities

Many factors affect the destinations of leavers. Examples include the following points which should be noted when comparing figures for individual Education Authorities.

• A number of school leavers take a 'year out' before continuing their education or entering employment. Apart from pupils with a deferred unconditional place for Higher Education, pupils taking a 'year out' are included in the 'unemployed and not seeking employment or training' category.
• The destination of leavers from individual Education Authorities may depend partly on location.
• Economic factors may affect the availability of employment in the local area. A major construction project or the opening of an industrial enterprise may present many new opportunities. Equally, lack of local employment may encourage leavers towards further education or training.
• In certain areas, or particular years, the pattern of school leaver destinations may be affected by the opportunities available through Skillseekers and Modern Apprenticeships, partnerships between education and business or special arrangements for entry to higher education.
• There may be a strong local tradition for pupils either to stay on at school or to leave school as early as possible, affecting the numbers who stay on long enough to gain the necessary entrance qualifications for higher education.
• Fluctuations in the figures from year to year are likely. For example, differences in the proportion of leavers proceeding to higher education may derive from the ability of pupils in a particular year group. Similarly, there may be short-term opportunities for employment in some localities. In Education Authorities with only a few leavers, a small change in the number of leavers in each destination category can make a big difference in percentage terms from year to year.
• In 2006/07, the guidance sent to independent schools was revised to make it clear that leavers with an unknown destination would be counted as being not in education, employment or training. This may account for the increase in the number of leavers from Independent schools going into unemployment and the decrease in the proportion of unknowns.
• 147 leavers entered voluntary work in 2006/07. These leavers are included in the unemployed and not seeking employment or training category, but are included in the total number of those entering positive destinations. Leavers who go on to do voluntary work are counted under 'unemployed and not seeking employment or training' in all tables unless otherwise stated. 2006/07 is the first year in which separate information on voluntary work is available.
• A total of 448 school leavers who moved outwith Scotland have not been included in the results.
• For those pupils who had a Record of Needs ( RoN) immediately prior to the commencement of the Education (Additional Support for Learning) (Scotland) Act 2004, on 14 November 2005, the education authorities must, within 2 years (November 2007), establish whether or not such pupils require a Co-ordinated Support Plan ( CSP). The provision being made for the recorded pupil is preserved as a minimum level of support unless there is a significant change in the individual's additional support needs or until the date that it is established that they require a plan, or if they do not require a plan, 2 years from the date that it is established. Such pupils are referred to in this publication under the heading "with RoN".
• Individualised Educational Programmes ( IEPs) are written plans setting targets that a child, with special educational needs, is expected to achieve. Targets should be limited in number and focus on key priorities of learning. They should be simple, clearly expressed and measurable.
• Pupils may have an IEP with another record of support needs, but they cannot have both a CSP and a RoN. Pupils with any combination of support needs are categorised as having Additional Support Needs.
• Figures collected from the Pupil Census on the number of children looked after by local authorities appear to be incomplete when compared with similar data from social work services departments. The Scottish Government is working to support Local Authorities with improving the sharing of information in respect of children in their care as part of their Corporate Parent duties.

6. Enquiries

Copies of the tables are available on the Scottish Government's website at http://www.scotland.gov.uk/stats/bulletins/00631.

Public enquiries (non-media) about the information contained in this Statistics Publication Notice should be addressed to:

Euan Smith

+44 (0)131 244 0304
educ.outcomes.stats@scotland.gsi.gov.uk

Media enquiries about the information in this Statistics Publication Notice should be addressed to Sarah Cuthbert-Kerr on 0132 244 2670.

Tables:

Table 1: Percentage of school leavers from publicly funded schools in Scotland by destination category: 1992/93 to 2006/07
Table 2: Percentage of school leavers from publicly funded schools in Scotland by destination category and gender: 2004/05 to 2006/07
Table 3: Percentage of school leavers from independent schools in Scotland by destination category: 1995/96 to 2006/07
Table 4: Percentage of school leavers from independent schools in Scotland by destination category and gender: 2004/05 to 2006/07
Table 5: Young People in Training (16-24 year olds with employed or trainee status): 1998 to 2006

Percentage of school leavers from publicly funded secondary schools in Scotland by destination category and…
Table 6: 6-fold urban/rural classification
Table 7: 2006 SIMD Decile
Table 8: learning difficulty (where the school leaver has Additional Support Needs)
Table 9: Additional Support Needs
Table 10: whether they were identified as being looked after by the Local Authority
Table 11: Free School Meals registration
Table 12: ethnic background
Table 13: national identity
Table 14: stage of leaving
Table 15: whether they are declared or assessed disabled

Table 16: Percentage of school leavers from publicly funded secondary schools in Scotland by characteristics and whether they've entered a positive destination
Table 17: Percentage of school leavers from publicly funded schools in Scottish Education Authorities by destination category: 2004/05 to 2006/07

Maps:

Map 1: Destinations of school leavers: percentage going to higher education, 2006/07
Map 2: Destinations of school leavers: percentage going to positive destinations, 2006/07

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