The Scottish Government

Title

Population Growth and Healthy Life Expectancy. Purpose Target

Associated Target

To match average European ( EU15) population growth over the period from 2007 to 2017, supported by increased healthy life expectancy in Scotland over this period.

Brief Description

As outlined in the Government Economic Strategy ( GES) population growth is a key contributor to, and consequence of, a more vibrant and a more dynamic economy.

The population target addresses the demographic challenge that Scotland faces. Over the period 2007 to 2017, Scotland will match average EU15 population growth, supported by increased healthy life expectancy over this period.

Strategic Objective(s) to Which Indicator Relates

This indicator informs progress in relation to all five Strategic Objectives:

Wealthier and Fairer;
Healthier;
Safer and Stronger;
Greener; and,
Smarter.

More Detailed Definitions

Definitions of Keywords

Net Migration: The difference between the number of people entering the country and number of people leaving. Short term international migrants are excluded.

European Union 15 ( EU15) - Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Germany, Netherlands, Denmark, UK, Ireland, Greece, Portugal, Spain, Austria, Sweden and Finland.

Life Expectancy: The average number of years that a new born baby would live if they experienced the age-specific mortality rates for the area, for the time period used, throughout their life.

Healthy Life Expectancy: The estimated average number of years that a new born baby could be expected to live in 'good health'. The discrepancy between healthy and total life expectancy, therefore, indicates the average number of years likely to be spent in 'poor health'.

Total Fertility Rate: The average number of children that would be born to a woman over her lifetime if she were to experience the exact current age-specific fertility rates ( ASFRs) through her lifetime. It is obtained by summing the age-specific rates for a given time-point.

Mortality Rate: Mortality rate is a measure of the number of deaths in the population. It is typically expressed in units of deaths per 1000 individuals per year.

Natural Change: The difference between the number of births and deaths.

Evidence Source

Population: Scotland

Mid-year population estimates published by the General Register Office for Scotland ( GROS). The estimated population includes all those usually resident, whatever their nationality. Members of UK and non- UK armed forces stationed in Scotland are included; UK forces stationed outside Scotland are excluded. Short-term international migrants are excluded.

Population: EU15

Start of year population estimates published by Eurostat. Population growth for the EU15 will be measured using the total (combined) population of the 15 countries - this is a weighted approach. An alternative approach is to use an unweighted measure, where each of the 15 countries individual population growth rates are added together and the total divided by 15 to give a EU15 countries' average.

Healthy Life Expectancy

Produced by ISD using GROS population estimates and death registrations and General Household Survey/Scottish Household Survey data on self-assessed health. HLE is derived by combining estimates of life expectancy ( LE) in years with data on self-assessed health (from surveys).

Baseline and Past Trends

Population

Baseline: The baseline Scottish Data will be the mid-2007 population estimate which will be published in April 2008. Baseline EU15 data will relate to January 2007.

The end point for the target will be the mid-2017 population estimates for Scotland, which will be published around April 2018. Total growth for Scotland's population will be the growth from the mid-2007 estimates to the mid-2017 estimates. Total growth for the EU15 will be the difference between January 2017 estimates, and the January 2007 estimates.

Past trends

Scotland and EU15:

Table 1: Population Change, EU15 and Scotland, 1995-2005 and 2000-2005.

The table shows that growth rates for Scotland have lagged behind the EU15 over the 10 year and five year period. In particular, Scotland recorded negative population growth over the period 1995-2005. The position improved marginally over the latest five year period for Scotland.

The chart below illustrates annual population growth for the EU15 and Scotland, 1996-2005.

Chart 1: Annual Population Growth, EU15 and Scotland, 1996-2005

Source: General Regsiter Office for Scotland - Midyear Population Estimates
Eurostat EU15 - Start of Year Population Estimates

More up-to-date information for Scotland shows an increase of 0.4% from 2005-2006. Comparable figures for the EU15 are not yet available.

Healthy Life Expectancy

Baseline, most recent, value (2005): Men 66.9 years; Women 68.4 years

Previous values:

Men
1998 - 65.2
2000 - 65.0
2001 - 65.6
2002 - 65.5

Women
1998 - 68.2
2000 - 68.0
2001 - 68.6
2002 - 68.6

Chart 2 below illustrates life expectancy ( LE) and healthy life expectancy ( HLE) at birth, 1980-2005. Given the use of survey data in the measure the trend also shows the 95% confidence limits on the annual point estimate.

Chart 2: Life / Healthy Life Expectancy at Birth 1980-2005

Source: Information Services Division Scotland - Healthy Life Expectancy in Scotland Report (1980-1999)
Information Services Division Scotland (2000-2005)

Methodology

Population

Scottish population estimates are produced using the demographic cohort component method. The estimates are based on the most recent census. Each year the population is 'aged on' one year (that is, the 0 year olds become 1 year olds and so on), the number of births in the year are added, the number of deaths subtracted and adjustments made for estimated migration (based on the best proxy sources available) and other changes in special populations.

The target will be measured by calculating the percentage change in population for Scotland and the EU15 over the period 2007-2017.

Healthy Life Expectancy

HLE is derived by combining estimates of life expectancy ( LE) with data on self-assessed health (from surveys).

Estimates of HLE are less robust than estimates of LE due to the use of survey data; the fact that health status is self-assessed brings in an element of potential bias to the estimates. HLE estimates have much wider confidence intervals than LE estimates. Chart 2 above illustrates this.

Data Ownership and Quality Assurance

Population: Scottish mid-year population estimates are National Statistics.

Healthy Life Expectancy: The three individual elements which feed into this measure are National Statistics but the measure itself isn't.

Publication of Data

Population: Scotland

Data is published on GROS website ( http://www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/) and are also available from SNSwww.sns.gov.uk and summarised in High Level Summary. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Population-Migration

Estimates are published annually in April of the following year so mid-2007 estimates will be published in April 2008 and mid-2017 estimates should be published in April 2018.

The estimates are based on the most recent census. However the 2007 estimates will be revised in light of the 2011 census.

Population: EU15

Data is published on Eurostat website. The data are taken from the Europe in Figures publication:

http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page?_pageid=2693,61100649,2693_62309131&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL

Healthy Life Expectancy

These data are owned by the Information and Statistics Division ( ISD). In spring 2008, ISD will be updating and expanding the HLE topic on the website of the Scottish Public Health Observatory (Scot PHO). The HLE estimates will then be regularly updated, as further data become available.

http://www.scotpho.org.uk/hle