Title | Overall prevalence of problem drug misuse |
National Indicator/Target | To decrease the estimated number of problem drug users in Scotland by 2011 |
Brief Description | Estimates of the numbers of adults (age 15 to 64) who misuse opiates and/or benzodiazepines (including methadone). Studies were carried out to estimate prevalence in 2000 and 2003, and a study is currently being repeated to provide estimates for 2006 (due to be published at the end of 2008). |
Strategic Objective(s) to Which Indicator Relates | This indicator informs progress in relation to: Healthier; Safer and Stronger |
More Detailed Definitions |
Definitions of Keywords | Problematic drug users: People who can be identified as using: - Opiates (including heroin and methadone)
- Cocaine powder problematically
- Crack cocaine
- Benzodiazepines illicitly
Age range: Estimates for 2006 will be based upon those between 15 and 64 years of age. Historical estimates (for 2000 and 2003) were for those between 15 and 54 years of age, and comparable figures will be derived in the new study. |
Evidence Source | Estimates are produced through commissioned research, using an internationally-recognised capture-recapture methodology. Data on drug users is collected from: - The Scottish Drug Misuse Database
- Drug Treatment Agencies
- Hospital admissions
- Hepatitis C Register
- Social Enquiry Reports
- Scottish Police Forces
and is used to produce estimates of the number of problematic drug users at a variety of geographical levels, and broken down by age (males only) and gender, as well as the number of injecting drug users, problematic powder or crack cocaine users. |
Baseline and Past Trends | Estimates of prevalence in 2006 (due to be published in 2008) will be taken as the baseline. We can be reasonably confident, though not certain, that between 2000 and 2003 there was a decrease in the prevalence of problematic drug use from 55,800 in 2000 to 51,000. Table 1: Estimated numbers of problem drug users (opiates and/or benzodiazepines): Scotland 2000 and 2003. 
Source: Estimating the National and Local Prevalence of Problem Drug Misuse in Scotland Centre for Drug Misuse Research, University of Glasgow Scottish Centre for Infection and Environmental Health. http://www.drugmisuse.isdscotland.org/publications/local/prevreport2004.pdf. In addition, the 2003 study found that: - An estimated 51,582 individuals were misusing opiates and/or benzodiazepines. This corresponds to 1.84% of the population aged between 15 and 54.
- 31% of problematic drug users were female.
- For males, 30% were aged between 15 and 24, 45% between 25 and 34 and 25% aged between 35-54.
- An estimated 18,737 people were injecting opiates and/or benzodiazepines in 2003
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Methodology | The validity, reliability and precision of any drug prevalence estimation method are important issues. The study employs the 'capture recapture' methodology (involving log-linear modelling). The capture-recapture methodology explicitly models various relationships and dependencies between data sources and to an extent between different genders and age groups. For a given set of data, differing estimates can be obtained and these estimates are evaluated in terms of validity and precision. Statistical techniques have been developed to maximise the validity of capture-recapture methods, such as undertaking sensitivity analyses. The study will use the 'boot-strapping' process to achieve 95% confidence intervals. For more information on the methodology employed see: http://www.drugmisuse.isdscotland.org/publications/abstracts/prevalence3.htm For methodological developments in the area see: http://www.homeoffice.gov.uk/rds/pdfs06/rdsolr1606.pdf |
Data Ownership and Quality Assurance | The evidence source is not National Statistics nor is National Statistics status to be sought. The source is a commissioned research project. The ownership of the research materials and of the reports lies with Scottish Ministers. |
Publication of Data | The final research report and/or the executive summary are likely to be published, if satisfactory, in the annual ISD bulletin Drugs Misuse Statistics Scotland and on the drugs misuse website www.drugmisuse.isdscotland.org As well as a main national report, reports will be provided for each of the Scottish NHS Boards areas, Local Authority areas and ADAT areas (where not coterminous with a NHS Board or Local Authority area). The results at the Community Health Partnership area will be provided in the relevant NHS Board / ADAT / Local Authority reports. It is currently being investigated whether reports at the Police Force area and Community Justice Authority areas would be useful in addition to those results being contained in the main, national report from the study. |