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5. Changes in perceived impact of the Scottish Parliament
5.1 Questions on the perceived impact of the Scottish Parliament on standards in health and education have been asked in previous years of SSA, as well in the 1997 Referendum and Election Surveys 14. However, earlier questions were asked prospectively, with respondents asked to say what impact they think the Scottish Parliament would have on services. Bearing in mind these differences in question wording, it is possible to examine whether views on the impact of devolution on the health service and on education have changed over time. Taking attitudes to the health service first, Table 2 shows that:
- There is a clear difference in prospective aspirations for devolution ( i.e. what impact people thought the Parliament would have on services, as asked up till 2003) and current perceptions (what impact people think it is having, as asked in 2006).
- 'Pre-devolution' measures (as collected by the Election and Referendum studies, both conducted in 1997) show that prior to its creation, almost two-thirds (65% just after the referendum on devolution) expected that having a Scottish Parliament would improve standards in the health service. Just a quarter (28%) felt that standards would not change.
- Data from the 1999 and 2001 SSA surveys reflect feelings in the 'early days' of devolution. Whilst a majority (around a half) still believed the impact of the Scottish Parliament on the health service would be positive, expectations appeared to have been dampened somewhat compared with pre-devolution figures. The proportion who felt that the Parliament would have a negative impact on the health service remained low, at less than 10%, but there had already been an increase in the proportion who felt that the Scottish Parliament would make no difference to health service standards (42% in 2001, compared with 25% after the 1997 election).
- By the end of the first term of the new Parliament (2003), more people felt that the Parliament would make no difference to health service standards than felt it would have a positive impact (46% compared with 37%).
- The 2006 data show what people thought seven years on from the introduction of the Scottish Parliament. This time, people were asked to say what impact they think the Parliament 'is' having on standards. As discussed above, the majority view was that the Parliament was making no difference (62%), while around 1 in 5 thought that the Parliament was having a positive impact on standards in the health service.
- Thus early positive aspirations about the likely impact of devolution on public services appeared to weaken in the early years, then give way to more sceptical views of its actual impact after almost two terms of the Scottish Parliament. That said, the proportion who thought having a Scottish Parliament was making things worse remained very low (fewer than 1 in 10).
Table 2 Impact of the Scottish Parliament on standards in the health service (column %)
| 1997 1
(Pre-devolution) | 1997 2
(Pre-devolution) | 1999 3
(Early days) | 2001 4
(Early days) | 2003 4
(End of first term) | 2006 5
(Seven years on) |
|---|
% | % | % | % | % | % |
|---|
Better/increase | 59 | 65 | 49 | 45 | 37 | 22 |
|---|
Worse/reduce | 6 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 10 | 9 |
|---|
No difference | 25 | 28 | 41 | 42 | 46 | 62 |
|---|
Don't know | 10 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 7 |
|---|
All | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
|---|
Sample size | 882 | 657 | 1482 | 1605 | 1508 | 1594 |
|---|
Base = all respondents.
1. Election Study (May to July 1997) - 'And as a result of this Scottish Parliament, would the standard of the health service in Scotland become better, worse or would it make no difference?
2. Referendum Study (Sept to Oct 1997) - 'And as a result of this Scottish Parliament, will the standard of the health service in Scotland become better, worse or will it make no difference?
3. In 1999 the question was 'And as a result of this Scottish Parliament, will the standard of the health service in Scotland become better, worse or will it make no difference?'
4. In 2001 and 2003 the question was (And as a result of having a Scottish Parliament) will the National Health Service in Scotland become better, worse or will it make no difference?
5. In 2006 the question was (From what you have seen and heard so far) do you think that having a Scottish Parliament is increasing the standard of the health service in Scotland, reducing the standard of the health service in Scotland, or is it making no difference?
Note: not all columns add to exactly 100% due either to rounding or because a small number of people have not answered.
5.2 A similar picture is seen with respect to education (Table 3):
- Early prospective aspirations for devolution were very positive. Just after the 1997 referendum, 71% thought having a parliament would increase the standard of education.
- However, these gradually tailed off in the early days of devolution (to 43% by 2000).
- SSA started asking about current perceptions of the impact of the Parliament earlier with respect to education than health. As soon as the question shifted to asking what impact the Parliament is having (from 2001 onwards), less positive reactions emerged - only between a quarter and 3 in 10 have said the Parliament is increasing standards in education over the last 5 years.
- Although there has been a recent increase in the proportion saying the Scottish Parliament is making standards better (from 23% in 2003 to 30% in 2006), it is too early to say whether this is the start of a trend towards more positive perceptions of devolution's impact on education standards.
Table 3 Impact of the Scottish Parliament on education standards (column %)
| 1997 1
(Pre-devolution) | 1997 2
(Pre-devolution) | 1999 2
(Early days) | 2000 3
(Early days) | 2001 4
(Early days) | 2002
(Early days) | 2003
(End of one term) | 2006
(Seven years on) |
|---|
% | % | % | % | % | % | % | % |
|---|
Better/increase | 62 | 71 | 56 | 43 | 27 | 25 | 23 | 30 |
|---|
Worse/ reduce | 25 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 6 |
|---|
No difference | 4 | 19 | 35 | 49 | 59 | 58 | 59 | 52 |
|---|
Don't know | 10 | 7 | 5 | - | 9 | 11 | 11 | 11 |
|---|
All | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
|---|
Sample size | 882 | 676 | 1482 | 1663 | 1605 | 1665 | 1508 | 1594 |
|---|
Base = all respondents.
1. 1997 Election Study - 'And as a result of this Scottish Parliament, would the quality of education in Scotland become better, worse or would it make no difference?'
2. In the 1997 Referendum study and 1999 SSA the question was 'Will a Scottish Parliament increase the standard of education in Scotland, reduce the standard of education in Scotland, or will it make no difference?'
3. In 2000 the question was 'Do you think that having a Scottish Parliament is going to increase the standard of education in Scotland, reduce the standard of education in Scotland, or will it make no difference?'
4. In 2001, 2002, 2003 and 2006 the question was (From what you have seen and heard so far) do you think that having a Scottish Parliament is increasing the standard of education in Scotland, reducing the standard of education in Scotland, or is it making no difference?
Note: not all columns add to exactly 100% due either to rounding or because a small number of people have not answered.
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