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4. Which groups think that having a Scottish Parliament is increasing standards?

4.1 This section explores a number of key questions: How do perceptions of the impact of devolution on public services vary among different groups? Who is most likely to think that the Scottish Parliament is increasing standards? Is this view more likely in particular demographic groups - for example, men versus women or younger versus older people? Or is it underlying attitudes and beliefs ( e.g. whether people support devolution or independence) that drive views on this issue?

4.2 Analysis was conducted to determine which socio-demographic and attitudinal factors were significantly and independently associated with believing that the Scottish Parliament was increasing standards in each of the public services discussed. ⁷

4.3 Two sets of regression models were created - one including only demographic factors, for instance age, sex and social class, and one which also included attitudinal factors such as constitutional preference and trust in government. Key findings are summarised here. However, full tables showing the proportions in different groups who thought the Scottish Parliament was increasing, reducing or making no difference to standards in health, education and public transport in 2006 are included in the annex ( Annex A, Tables A.2 to A.4).

4.4 While a wide variety of factors which may explain differences in attitudes were included in analysis, it is important to bear in mind that attitudes are often very complex and may be driven by a large number of other factors, not all of which can be measured by a single study.

Demographic differences

Age

4.5 Age was the only demographic factor significantly associated with views about the impact of the Parliament on public services after other demographic and attitudinal factors were controlled for in regression analysis. In particular, analysis showed that:

• Overall, younger people (aged 18-24) tended to be the age group who were most positive about the impact of the Parliament on standards in public services.
• They were particularly positive about the impact of the Parliament on education - half (52%) of 18-24 year-olds thought it was increasing the standard of education, compared with just a quarter (23%) of those aged 65 or older who said the same.
• In relation to public transport, those in the oldest age group (65 and above) were also more positive than those in the middle two aged groups (aged 25-64). For example, 35% of those aged 65 or older said having a Scottish Parliament was increasing standards in public transport, compared with just 23% of those aged 40-64 who said the same. These patterns reflect levels of service use, as both the youngest and oldest age groups were also more likely to be frequent users of public transport.

Service use

4.6 Positive perceptions of the impact of the Scottish Parliament on standards were also more prevalent among those likely to be 'service users'. For example:

• A third (33%) of those who used public transport at least once a week thought having a Scottish Parliament was increasing standards in this area, compared with just 17% of those who did not use public transport at all ( Annex, Table A.4).
• Users of the school system (as indirectly measured by whether there are children of school age living in the household) were more likely to say the Parliament was increasing standards in education (37% of those with school aged children said this, compared with 28% of those without school aged children - Annex A, Table A.3).
• The positive perceptions held by younger people, who are more likely to be current or recent users of the education system, also suggests that users' views were on the whole more positive than those of non-users.
• Having a disability or long term illness was used as a proxy for health service use. ⁸ Multivariate analysis ⁹ found a higher likelihood of a positive evaluation among those with a disability or illness compared to those without.

Urbanity/rurality

4.7 Perceptions of the impact of the Scottish Parliament on public transport (but not health or education) varied by the type of area people lived in, from 32% in 'accessible rural areas' who thought devolution was increasing standards in public transport, to just 21% in 'accessible small towns' ( Annex A, Table A.4).

Education, occupational sector and deprivation

4.8 Those with higher level qualifications were more like to be positive about the impact of the Scottish Parliament on standards in education - 32% of those with degree/higher level qualification said it was increasing standards, compared with 21% of those with no qualifications. This is consistent with the finding that service users are more likely to report positive views ( Annex A, Table A.3).

4.9 Those working in the public sector were more likely to provide a positive evaluation of the impact of the Scottish Parliament on the health service (26% said it was increasing standards, compared to 20% of those who worked in the private sector) (Annex A, Table A.2).

But attitudes also matter

4.10 While attitudes do vary significantly between the groups discussed above, multivariate analysis suggests that demographic factors, like age, service use and area, were in fact relatively less powerful than other attitudinal factors in explaining beliefs about the impact of the Scottish Parliament.

Constitutional preference ¹⁰

4.11 As might be expected given that these questions are designed to measure views about the impact of devolution on public services, attitudes varied significantly by constitutional preference. The most common view across all groups, regardless of their attitudes to devolution in principle, was that having a Scottish Parliament was making no difference to standards in public services. However, supporters of either devolution or independence were more likely than those who would prefer not to have a Scottish Parliament to say the Parliament was having a positive impact. For example, 26% of those supporting devolution and 21% of those supporting independence thought having a Scottish Parliament was increasing standards in the health service, compared with just 6% of those in favour of Westminster rule ( Annex A, Table A.2). Similar patterns are apparent for education and public transport.

Awareness of Scottish Executive activities

4.12 Respondents were asked how much they had seen or heard about the work of the Scottish Executive over the last 12 months. Thirty-five per cent said they had heard 'a great deal' or 'quite a lot', while a similar proportion (33%) had heard 'not very much' or 'nothing at all'. Those who said they had heard 'a great deal' or 'quite a lot' were more likely than those who had heard 'not very much' or 'nothing at all' to say the Scottish Parliament was increasing standards in the health service, education and public transport. For example, 38% of those who had heard 'a great deal' felt that the Scottish Parliament was increasing standards in education, compared with 20% of those who had heard little ( Annex A, Tables A.2 to A.4).

Perceptions of influence, trust and responsibility

4.13 Beliefs about which institutions have most influence over how Scotland is run and levels of trust in the Scottish Executive are discussed in detail in a separate report on the 2006 Scottish Social Attitudes survey (Ormston & Sharp, 2007). However, trust in the Scottish Executive and perceptions of its influence were both strongly related to beliefs about the impact of the Parliament on services. ¹¹

• Those who believed the Scottish Executive had most influence over how Scotland is run ¹² were more likely than those who thought the UK government most influential to say the Scottish Parliament was increasing standards in health and education (33% compared with 17% for the health service, and 39% compared with 27% for education - Annex A, Tables A.2 and A.3).
• Those who did not trust the Scottish Executive to make fair decisions ¹³ were less likely to think the Scottish Parliament was having a positive impact on health, education and transport. For health in particular, the difference between those who trusted the Scottish Executive to make fair decisions and those who did not was considerable - only 5% of those who did not trust the Scottish Executive thought the Scottish Parliament was having a positive impact on standards in the health service, compared with 35% of those who trusted them 'a great deal' or 'quite a lot' ( Annex A, Tables A.2 to A.4).

4.14 Those who hold the Scottish Executive responsible for standards in key public services (findings on which are discussed later in this report) were also much more likely to think that devolution was having a positive impact on these services. For example, 46% of those who thought the performance of public transport in the previous 12 months was the result of Scottish Executive policies also thought having a Scottish Parliament was increasing standards in public transport, compared with just 26% who attributed recent standards in this area to UK government policies. As might be expected, the most common evaluation given by those who continued to attribute standards in key public services in Scotland to the UK government was that the Scottish Parliament makes no difference to standards (71% said this in relation to the impact on the health service, 60% in relation to education, and 62% in relation to public transport - Annex A, Tables A.2 to A.4).

4.15 These findings appear to reflect the 'reverse symmetry' in attributions of credit and blame (or in this case, attributions of credit vs. lack of impact), discussed further below. Where people believe the Scottish institutions have most influence, they are also generally more likely to think that this influence is having a positive impact.

A note on 'causation' - which attitudes come first?

4.16 Of course, the precise nature of the relationship between beliefs about the impact of the Parliament on public services and broader attitudes towards the devolved institutions is not obvious from these findings. For example, one might think being more aware of Scottish Executive activities could lead people to believe they are having a positive impact on public services. However, perhaps it is simply that those who are predisposed to think devolution will have a beneficial impact pay most attention to the activities of the Executive and Parliament. Similar observations could be made with respect to many of the relationships between attitudes reported above. What is clear, however, is that assessments of the impact of the Parliament on public services in particular appear to be bound up with both support for devolution in principle, and general awareness and perceptions of the impact of the devolved institutions in practice.

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