« Previous | Contents | Next »
Listen
This publication provides results of a special survey of S1 and S2 class sizes and the annual survey on children educated outwith school, together with the latest projections of pupil numbers and provisional pupil numbers used in funding of local authorities.
The main findings are: -
Maths and English class sizes in S1 and S2
- The average class size in S1 Maths was 18.5 (25.6 in 2003), in S2 Maths was 18.7 (25.3 in 2003), in S1 English was 18.4 (26.2 in 2003) and in S2 English was 18.6 (25.7 in 2003).
- There were 318 (1)schools (85 per cent of the 376 secondary schools) that had an average class size of 20 or less in each of S1 Maths, S2 Maths, S1 English and S2 English, compared to 35 schools (nine per cent) in 2003.
- In Maths, 93 per cent of schools had an average class size of 20 or less for S1. For S2 the figure was 90 per cent.
For English the figure was 94 per cent for S1 and 90 per cent for S2.
In 2003 these figures were all around twelve per cent. - There were 64 (1) schools (17 per cent) where no classes had more than 20 pupils, compared to 27 schools in 2003.
- There were about 2,800 classes (out of 12,300) that had more than 20 pupils. This represents 23 per cent of classes, compared to 84 per cent in 2003. Four fifths of these classes were in schools where the average class size for the cohort group was 20 or less, leaving 550 other classes, in 58 schools, with more than 20 pupils, where the average in the cohort was more than 20.
- Sixty-three per cent of S1 and S2 pupils were in Maths classes of 20 or fewer pupils, (compared to twelve per cent in 2003) and 79 per cent were in English classes of 20 or fewer (compared to eight per cent in 2003).
(1) This includes two schools with only composite classes, which are not included elsewhere in the tables of this report.
Children educated outwith school
- In 2006/07 there were 956 children who received local authority education at home or in hospital due to prolonged ill health, or through special arrangements put in place as a result of family illness. A further 216 children received education at home under 'other extraordinary circumstances'.
- In 2006/07, 564 children were known by local authorities to be receiving home education as a result of parental choice, who had at some point in the past been in local authority school education. This figure had decreased by 16 (three per cent) from the previous year, although this varied between local authorities.
- Another 139 children who had never been in local authority school education were known by local authorities to be receiving home education as a result of parental choice, an increase of 13 (ten per cent) from the previous year.
- The total number of children known to be educated at home due to parental choice, 703, represents 0.1 per cent of the population aged 5-15, the same as in recent years. It is recognised that there may be more children educated outwith school who are not currently known to local authorities, and that any changes in numbers known may be due to information management.
National pupil projections (2006 based)
- The General Register Office for Scotland published new population projections in October. These projected an increased birth rate and a higher level of net inward migration. This has the effect of increasing the number of pupil projected for future years compared with previous projections, initially in pre-school, in primary from 2010, and in secondary from about 2018.
- The total number of pupils receiving publicly funded school education is projected to decrease steadily from 700 thousand in 2006, to 660 thousand in 2013, then rise until peaking at 680 thousand in 2022.
- The number of pupils in publicly funded primary schools is projected to continue to fall steadily from 380 thousand in 2006, to 370 thousand in 2010, then rise until peaking at 390 thousand in 2018.
- The number of pupils in publicly funded secondary schools is projected to decrease steadily from 310 thousand in 2006 to 270 thousand in 2016, then rise until peaking at 290 thousand in 2024.
- The number of pupils in publicly funded special schools has been projected to change in line with the projected change in the number of children of school age, but have also been marginally adjusted to account for some remaining potential impact of mainstreaming of pupils with additional support needs. It has been assumed that the number of pupils in the independent sector will remain constant.
Local authority pupil projections
(2004 based, 2006 based projections will become available in January 2008)
- Overall pupils numbers were projected to fall in all local authorities by 2010, varying from two per cent in Falkirk to 13 per cent in East Dunbartonshire.
- In primary the rate of change varies from an increase of 0.4 per cent (Falkirk) to a 15 per cent decrease (East Dunbartonshire). In secondary the rate varies from an increase of 0.4 per cent (East Renfrewshire) to a decrease of 13 per cent (Shetland Islands).
Provisional pupil numbers for 2007
- In September 2007 there were about 375,500 pupils in 2,167 local authority primary schools, 309,200 pupils in 378 local authority secondary schools and 6,400 pupils in 176 local authority special schools. Of those pupils whose ethnic background was declared, 6.3 per cent were from minority ethnic backgrounds (including "white-other"), compared to 5.6 per cent in 2006. These are provisional pupil numbers, final figures will be published in February.
Contents
Class sizes
Table 1.1 Number of schools by average class size in S1/S2 Maths & English
Table 1.2 Number of S1/S2 Maths classes by size
Table 1.3 Number of S1/S2 English classes by size
Chart 1 Frequency of S1/S2 Maths & English class sizes, 2003 and 2007
Table 1.4 Average class size by local authority
Table 1.5 Number of schools with average class size over 20
Table 1.6 Number of classes over 20, by local authority
Map 1 Average class size by local authority
Children Educated Outwith School
Table 2.1 Children educated outwith school in Scotland, 2001/02 to 2006/07
Chart 2: Children educated outwith school in Scotland, 2001/02 to 2006/07
Table 2.2 Children educated outwith school, by local authority, 2006/07
Projections
Table 3.1 2006-based Scotland level pupil projections, by sector
Chart 3: Number of pupils at September, publicly funded primary and secondary schools
Table 3.2 2006-based Scotland level pupil projections, by age
Table 3.3 2006-based Scotland level pupil projections, by stage
Table 3.4 2004-based local authority pupil projections for primary
Table 3.5 2004-based local authority pupil projections for secondary
Map 2 2004-based local authority pupil projections, primary and secondary
Provisional pupil numbers
Table 4.1 Provisional pupil numbers for 2007, and number of pupils from minority ethnic backgrounds
BACKGROUND NOTES
S1 and S2 Maths and English Class Sizes
1. These figures represent a snapshot of schools as at School Census week ( i.e. week commencing 17 th September 2007). Information was collected in a special exercise and was received from all 376 schools with S1/S2 pupils. Information on primary class sizes will be published in Pupils in Scotland 2007 in February 2008.
2. The 2003 Partnership Agreement for a Better Scotland, in relation to the recruitment of extra teachers, stated that
We will target these additional teachers on reducing class sizes to a maximum of 20 in S1 and S2 for Maths and English.
Circular 1/2007 then confirmed that
The Executive's commitment will be met if, in each school, S1 Maths, S2 Maths, S1 English and S2 English classes each average 20 pupils.
3 .The circular also confirmed that the principles which are set out in relation to P1-P3 class sizes in The Education (Lower Primary Class size) (Scotland) Regulations 1999 would also be applied to S1/S2 Maths and English classes. For example children who join a class after the end of a placing round, or as a result of a successful placing appeal, would be exempt.
4. There were 41 classes over 20 with two teachers. All classes with two teachers were treated in the analysis as two classes with half the number of pupils.
5. A few schools used team teaching, where, for example, eleven teachers were used to teach ten classes. This report however is based on the minimum number of teachers in a class during the week, and thus in this example there would be only ten teachers counted.
6. There were four composite S1/S2 classes, in two schools, which have generally not been included in the analysis. They all had ten pupils. There were also two secondary schools with no S1/S2 pupils.
Children Educated Outwith Schools
7. This survey was run for the first time in Autumn 2001. Local authorities provided details of all children who were educated outwith school at any point during the school year, whether out of necessity (Section 14 of the Education (Scotland) Act 1980) or by parental choice (Section 30). The survey replaced and extended the previous survey of pupils educated outwith school ( SC4) which provided only a snapshot picture of Section 14 children during a given week in September. This year's results are therefore comparable with figures from 2000/01 onwards, but not comparable with earlier figures.
8. Following the Standards in Scotland's Schools etc. Act 2000 education authorities must make special arrangements for the education of children who are unable to attend school because of prolonged ill-health and exemptions caused by family illness. The Executive issued guidance to authorities on this duty in December 2001. Authorities may also make special arrangements for children who cannot attend because of extraordinary circumstances.
9. Section 30 of the Education (Scotland) Act 1980 states that parents have a duty to provide efficient education for their school age children which is suited to their age, ability and aptitude. They may do this by ensuring that their child attends a local authority school regularly, or by other means, including the provision of education at home. Children who receive education at home under Section 30 do so as a result of parental choice, and are distinct from those who, due to illness or exceptional circumstances, are unable to attend school.
10. Parents of children who have started to attend a local authority school must seek the LA's consent before withdrawing their child from school to educate them at home. LAs reported that they were aware of 564 such children who were educated at home in 2006/07. Parents of children who have never attended a local authority school are not required to seek the consent of their LA in order to educate them at home. LAs reported that they were aware of 139 such children, although there are likely to be others. If LAs become aware of such children they have a responsibility to intervene if an efficient and suitable education is not being provided.
11. The Scottish Government publishes guidance on home education for local authorities and parents. The purpose of this guidance is to promote a consistency of approach across Scotland by setting out the legislative position, providing advice on the roles and responsibilities of education authorities and parents, and giving examples of good practice. The guidance is available on the Scottish Government website at http://www.scotland.gov.uk/library5/education/gcech-00.asp .
The Scottish Government has conducted a consultation on the home education guidance, and would intend to publish revised guidance this winter.
Pupil number projections
12. Pupil projections are produced by the Scottish Government for use in teacher workforce planning and for other policy developments. The modelling process uses information from:
a) Census of Pre-school Education Centres, Jan 2007 and previous.
b) Pupil Census September 2006 and previous.
c) General Register Office for Scotland - mid-year population estimates up to 2006.
d) General Register Office for Scotland - 2006 based population projections
Pre-school
13. The methodology employed in projecting numbers of children in pre-school centres uses the 2006 Pre-school Census pupil counts, split by age, and population projections. Figures used in these projections are headcounts.
Primary and Secondary
14. Firstly, the percentage of pupils of each age, in each sector, compared to the total number of children in the population was calculated.
15. Then, for a given cohort moving through the school, the participation rate for a given year was projected using the knowledge of the previous year's participation rate for that cohort, together with the average change in participation rates at that age. For example, if 98.2% of 6 year-olds were in mainstream primaries in 2005, and on average over the past four years the participation rate of 6 year-olds had increased 0.3 percentage points by the time they are 7, then the projected participation rate for 7 year-olds in 2006 would be 98.5%.
16. A similar methodology was used for 16 - 18 year olds, but some changes were made to avoid distortion due to leavers. The average change in participation rates were based on fewer years, so that more recent years were given greater weight. In addition, where the participation rate for 17 and 18 year-olds resulted in a lower participation rate than the average over 2003 to 2005, the average was used instead.
17. The participation rates for 19 year olds was calculated using the 4 year average rates for 2002-2005.
18. Participation rates for cohorts not yet in the system were calculated using four year average rates for 3, 4 and 5 year-olds, which are then projected forward using the same methodology as above.
19. The projections for pre-school and primary school age children are increasingly affected by predicted birth rates and unknown participation rates - this introduces a greater element of uncertainty.
Special Schools
20. Pupil numbers in special schools are projected using age-specific participation rates. The lower estimate from the Audit Scotland/ HMIE publication Moving to Mainstream has then been used, phased in over 7 years, to adjust the figures to account for the potential impact of mainstreaming of pupils, arising from section 15 of the Standards in Scotland's Schools etc. Act 2000. These have been subtracted from the special school figures and added to primary and secondary schools in proportion to the primary/secondary ratio in mainstream pupil numbers.
Independent Schools
21. Following trends in recent years, the number of pupils in independent schools has been projected to remain constant. Projections for publicly funded schools have then been reduced to account for the resulting slight decrease in the proportion of the population in publicly funded schools.
Local authority projections
22. The same methodology has been used to produce local authority projections up to 2010. However, since the 2006 based population projections are not yet available, the amended 2004 based projections have been used. These projections are used in the allocation of funding to local authorities, to minimise the effect of changing populations over the period of funding settlement. No adjustments have been made to LA projections for the effect of mainstreaming or of changes in the proportion in the independent sector.
23. Local authority projections will not sum to Scotland level projections as they are modelled separately. The Scotland totals also include grant aided schools and the effect of mainstreaming and the independent sector.
24. Maps on page 22 show the percentage decrease of primary and secondary pupils by local authority between 2006 and 2010. The range of pupil loss across the local authorities was split into five sections to make the categories in each map, based on the average change. For example, in primary the average change in the local authority projections is a 4.4% drop, so the categories are formed by 6.6%, 4.4%, 2.2% and zero.
Provisional pupil numbers
25. Final results of the September 2007 pupil census will be published in February 2008. In order to provide up-to-date data for use in the 2007 grant aided expenditure calculations the necessary limited range of data was extracted from census returns and returned to local authorities for checking. In the case of eight local authorities, who had not returned their census data in time, spreadsheets containing the summary information were returned instead.
General
26. This is a National Statistics publication. National Statistics are produced to high professional standards set out in the National Statistics Code of Practice. They undergo regular quality assurance reviews to ensure that they meet customer needs. They are produced free from any political interference.
27. Many of the data are rounded separately and so may appear not to sum to their total.
28. This report was edited by: Mal Cooke and Carrie Graham
29. All tables are available on the Scottish Government website at http://www.scotland.gov.uk/stats/bulletins/00621
Enquiries
30. Public enquiries (non-media) about the information contained in this statistical publication notice should be addressed to
Mal Cooke,
Statistician,
Education Information and Analytical Services,
Area 1-B,
Victoria Quay,
Edinburgh EH6 6QQ.
Telephone 0131 244 1689 or e-mail school.stats@scotland.gsi.gov.uk.
31. Media enquiries about the information in this statistical publication notice should be addressed to:
Marion Mackay: 0131 244 3070
Statistical Publication Notice
20 th November, 2007
« Previous | Contents | Next »