The Scottish Government

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OVERALL CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

International comparisons

1. International comparisons need to be treated with some caution as definitions vary and socio-economic factors need to be taken into account. The measured outcomes from education also tend to be limited and comparisons of the softer more tenuous outcomes such as citizenship or social values are nigh impossible. Scotland's investment per pupil based on 2003 figures is slightly below the OECD average for primary education but above the average in secondary. In addition, investment since 2001 is likely to have increased at above the average international level, given the investment following the agreement 'A Teaching Profession for the 21 ^st Century'. In general, class sizes are greater than pupil: teacher ratios, as pupil teacher ratios often include teachers supporting individual pupils and non-teaching management staff. In Scotland, pupil: teacher ratios in primary and secondary schools are in the middle of the range of comparator countries (Denmark, Finland, and the Netherlands). Unlike the majority of European countries Scotland has invested in classroom support for teachers.

Class size research

2. The majority of class size research projects have focussed on primary education. The updated literature review commissioned by the Class Size and Resources Working Group suggested that by 2006, although the class size debate had tended to polarise researchers, more of a consensus was emerging. Many researchers noted a relationship between small classes and attainment in the early years even if they disagreed on the exact nature of the relationship. Research also highlighted the other issues that are important in determining attainement such as classroom processes, the quality of teaching, the prior attainment of the child and parental background.. While a number of researchers considered that reductions for younger children were probably useful they considered that there were more cost-effective ways of providing young children with individualised attention.. According to the researchers class size reduction is attractive because it maintains the existing structure of schools while simply adding more resources but there is no evidence that in the long-term it will be sufficient to raise the attainment of all pupils.

3. The Class Size Working Group's commissioned pilot study on the effects of class size on attainment at Standard Grade seemed to suggest that there was no evidence that smaller classes were associated with higher attainment. However the pilot only covered one authority North Lanarkshire and only referred to S4 and it would be dangerous to draw conclusions for Scotland as a whole or indeed across the range of subjects. The methodology involved however did appear to be sound and provide the basis for a further longitudinal study that would help to assess the impact of class sizes on attainment in secondary education.

Options for Additional Expenditure

4. The projected decline in pupil numbers could have an impact on total education expenditure in future years. For example, our initial estimates suggest that this could lead to a reduction in future expenditure of 4.2 per cent (or £200m) in real terms by 2015-16. Teachers represent the largest element of education expenditure and therefore decisions over the number of teachers and the salary levels for these teachers will have a significant impact on overall education expenditure in future years. The levels of expenditure on education are matters for the government of the day however budgetary constraints and calls for the more efficient use of existing resources to obtain improved educational outcomes are likely to be the backdrop to decisions on which areas of educational expenditure should be prioritised. The recent "Report of the external Budget Review Group" commented that they were surprised to hear of the lack of significant data and research to support any particular model of class size. The research chapter of this report sets out what evidence there is but it is acknowledged that there is no particular Scottish evidence. The Group also commented on the recent emphasis on input measures such as teacher numbers. While they recognise that this may have been effective it will be necessary in future programmes to ensure that the impact upon educational outcomes is fully evaluated as they are rolled out.

Recommendations

5. A longitudinal study into the impact of class sizes along the lines proposed in Chapter 2 should be commissioned.

6. The effects of the reduction in P1-P3 classes to a maximum of 18 should be evaluated as the reductions are rolled

Annex 1

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development ( OECD)

Plays a prominent role in fostering good governance in public service and corporate activity. The OECD helps governments to ensure the responsiveness of key economic policies via sectoral monitoring and is well known for its individual country surveys and reviews.

Programme for International Student Assessment ( PISA)

A three-yearly OECD study assessing the performance of 15 year olds in reading literacy, mathematical literacy and scientific literacy. Over 275,000 students from 41 countries took part in the survey in 2003.

Eurydice network

The information network on education in Europe.

Progress in International Reading Literacy Study ( PIRLS) 2001 survey

A large international comparative study of the reading literacy of young students. In Scotland, Primary 5 pupils take part in this study.

Annex 2

Membership of the Class Sizes, Staffing and Resources Working Group

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