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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1. The work of the Group took place before the election of the new Scottish government. During the debate on a "Smarter Scotland " on 20 June the Scottish government reaffirmed its plans to reduce P1-P3 classes to a maximum of 18 and to provide access to a fully qualified nursery teacher for every nursery aged child, starting with children in deprived communities.
2. The Class Size and Resources Working Group was established in 2005. The group met on 8 occasions between its establishment and the finalisation of this report in 2007. Benchmarking information was collected from a number of sources to enable the group to establish Scotland's relative position to other European countries with regard to educational provision.
3. An updated literature review on the impact of class sizes on attainment was commissioned along with a research project on the decision making process on class sizes. A pilot project was carried out into the practicality of using SQA data for assessing the impact of class sizes on attainment in S4.
Bench marking conclusions
4. International conclusions need to be treated with some caution as definitions vary across countries and contextual factors need to be taken into account. It can be difficult to be confident that like is being compared with like. But:
- There is no clear relationship between overall investment including for example teacher salaries and non teaching costs in education in any one year and attainment. There are international examples of high spend and lower attainment than expected and low spend and higher attainment than expected.
- Scotland's investment per pupil based on 2002 figures is in line with the OECD average for primary education and above the average in secondary. In addition, investment since 2001 is likely to have increased at above the average international level, given the investment following the agreement 'A Teaching Profession for the 21 st Century'.
- In general, class sizes are greater than pupil: teacher ratios, as pupil teacher ratios often include teachers supporting individual pupils and non-teaching management staff. In Scotland, pupil: teacher ratios in primary and secondary schools are in the middle of the range of comparator countries (Denmark, Finland, and the Netherlands).
- The concept of the classroom assistant is not that common in the rest of Europe. Scotland is in the minority in providing support in the classroom apart from some additional support needs.
Class size research conclusions
5. Although most researchers agree that there is a relationship between small classes, especially in the early years, and pupil attainment, many accept that this is only part of a complex picture. Other factors such as classroom processes, the quality of teaching, the prior attainment of the child and parental background, are all likely to contribute.
6. The majority of research projects on the impact of class sizes on attainment are in the primary sector. No relevant research has been carried out in Scotland and there may be some doubt as to the transferability of research findings between different education systems. The work of Professor Blatchford in England is likely to be of particular relevance to Scotland. The Class size and Pupil Ratio research project which he oversaw recognised that the factors affecting pupil attainment were complex but concluded that:
- There was a clear effect of class size difference on academic attainment in the reception year
- Small classes work best for literacy for children who are most in need academically, and have the most ground to make up.
- For low achieving children, class size must be reduced to below 20 if they are to benefit from the reduction.
- There was no evidence that pupils in smaller classes (in England) from year 4 onwards made more progress in maths, English or science.
Other researchers, while noting the possible benefits from class size reductions, claim that there are more cost-effective ways of providing young children with individualised attention when they most need it. Class size reduction is attractive because it maintains the existing structure of schools while simply adding more resources. This may be a necessary step, but there is no evidence that in the long-term it will be sufficient to raise the attainment of all pupils.
7. Most evidence is in primary but the research commissioned by the CSWG on the impact of class size on Standard Grade results suggest that further work could be carried out to help assess the impact on secondary.
Expenditure conclusions
8. Before considering options for expenditure the group looked at current levels of expenditure and how they may be influenced by for example changes in pupil numbers. The Group concluded:
- Gross revenue expenditure on education was £4.4 billion in 2005-06, representing a rise of 3.5 per cent in real terms over the previous year.
- The projected decline in pupil numbers could have an impact on teacher numbers and total education expenditure in future years. For example, our initial estimates suggest that this could lead to a reduction in future expenditure of 4.2 per cent (or £200m) in real terms by 2015-16. However there is now a commitment to reduce P1-P3 to a maximum of 18 which will reduce or remove any saving.
- Teachers represent the largest element of education expenditure and therefore decisions over the number of teachers and the salary levels for these teachers will have a significant impact on overall education expenditure in future years.
9. Options for further expenditure were also noted by the Group. These were not recommendations but rather examples of the implications particular developments could have on educational expenditure.
Recommendations
10. A longitudinal study into the impact of class sizes along the lines proposed in Chapter 2 should be commissioned.
11. The effects of the reduction in P1-P3 classes to a maximum of 18 should be evaluated as the reductions are rolled out.
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