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CHAPTER FIVE: DEMAND AND SUPPLY

5.1 In this chapter we consider the evidence of the match between supply and demand and assess the extent of mismatch; in particular, the geography of potential under-provision.

Evidence of over subscribed provision

5.2 It appears that most classes are full, with drop outs replaced from waiting lists during the first few weeks that a course runs. Few providers report having places unfilled.

Evidence of under supply/over demand

5.3 With incomplete returns and a sample of qualitative provider interviews, it is not possible to produce a systematic assessment of the extent to which demand is greater than supply. As a surrogate for unmet demand, waiting lists have their limitations, not least because they are administered very differently. As providers told us, some ruthlessly prune them, some do not have them as a matter of policy and at a few providers only some learners go on the waiting list.

5.4 At one FE college, they have had to apply strict criteria to keep waiting lists to a minimum. They currently only make ESOL classes available to asylum seekers and people who have gained permanent UK residency (and of these only those who have pre-school childcare needs, who are learners with significant barriers to learning or travelling people with children in local schools and people who have a script different to English). This would effectively rule out A8 nationals. In another FE college, they have stopped taking applications, as their waiting lists are too long. Once they fill their courses they return the applications and open the process for the next academic year.

5.5 Just over half of the voluntary and FE providers interviewed had continuous waiting lists. Other providers as a rule did not keep them even though they had more applicants than places; one operated a mailing list so that enrolment/applications for new courses could be drawn to people's attention. The numbers of people estimated on waiting lists ranged from 20 to 500; the length of time before getting on a course varying from a few weeks (if taking up vacancies or being referred to another course/provider) to more than a year.

5.6 In general it looks as if waiting lists are longer and more common in Central West than in more rural areas such as South East where the range of provision is less varied. However, it should be noted that there are variations between similar providers in the same area and between different providers. In both Central East and Central West providers closer to the city centres have much longer waiting lists than those in other areas. Providers state that this is because they are more accessible to people who work and to public transport. Generally where providers have waiting lists they reported that they have seen an increase in demand over the past year.

5.7 In Central West experiences vary among FE providers. Waiting lists in one place are a new phenomenon, in a few there are no waiting lists, and in others very long waiting lists. One FE provider reported that between August and November 2006, there were 800 enquiries which they were unable to place. Another provider in this region commented that their waiting list decreased slightly, from 3 years ago, because of the drop in asylum seekers in the area.

5.8 In Central East one FE provider commented that they have to reject half of applicants due to a lack of spaces. Managing the waiting list is also very time-consuming. They do not see a difference in demand from past years and report that the waiting list has always been the same. However, a CLD Partnership in this region reported that they have witnessed demand for ESOL courses increasing since 2005.

5.9 In the South East, North East/ NI and South West there are only short waiting lists. Providers say this is because there are fewer types of course (mainly for those with lower levels of English proficiency) available. Some providers have commented that they charge fees for classes leading to an SQA qualification to offset some of the administrative costs of processing the qualification. One CLD Partnership in the South East commented that this year is the first that they are offering ESOL provision and they presently have waiting lists. Another Partnership in this same region reported that they do not have waiting lists, as they operate on a roll-on-roll off basis and they do have a high level of turnover. In the North East/ NI one FE provider commented that they have not had waiting lists until this year and there are usually no more than six people waiting. However, this college only provides basic level ESOL and does not offer advanced courses. They know that there is a demand for this, but the college does not have the resources to offer the course.

5.10 Over half of the providers interviewed reported that their accredited courses had waiting lists. However, of this group only a small number had waiting lists in the past. One provider in the Central area commented that their learner population increased from 12 to 120 in the past year, which is the reason for the present waiting list. A CLD Partnership in this region commented that there has been a definite increase in demand since 2005. A CLD Partnership located in Fife and Tayside also commented that while waiting lists have existed in the past there has been a dramatic increase in the past 2 years due to migration into the area of A8 nationals. An FE provider in Central West stated that the demand has increased over the past few years and that previously waiting lists have not been kept as there was not a large number of learners in the area. However, with the sudden increase of Polish migrants there are now not enough classes to meet demand.

5.11 In Fife and Tayside, in many cases, lists are short and many people can get a place through referral. One voluntary provider pointed out that as courses have expanded they have established waiting list systems. However, one FE college in this region commented that they no longer hold waiting lists, as learner populations are mobile and their needs for courses can change because of employment.

" We have abandoned waiting lists, as they are difficult to manage. We have lots of people enquiring every week, some of them work. You also find that people disappear and you spend time chasing people. We tell prospective learners to keep in touch."

5.12 There are mixed views on changes to the length of waiting lists and the causes. In Central West, for example, there have been slight increases because of A8 learners, but not huge. One FE provider reports that three years ago, there were 1,000 people on the waiting lists. Now, the numbers have fallen slightly because of the decrease in asylum seekers. However, waiting periods on waiting lists now are longer because learners are less likely to drop out.

5.13 In other areas A8 learners are generally the cause of waiting lists and demand management. A CLD Partnership in Fife and Tayside commented that while the waiting lists in this region have been significant in the past, there has been a noticeable increase in the last 18 months, especially with an increase of learners from the A8 countries. Further, another provider in this region commented that waiting list demand is seasonal. There is often higher demand in the summer because of the seasonal work taken on by A8 nationals. There is also a counter effect in that learners are working and they are therefore unable to access the provision as easily, as a result they offer more part time courses between September and December. There are 7 part time groups which cater for over 90 learners.

Potential demand

5.14 Only a survey and assessment of all people whose first language is not English might establish the level of need for ESOL. For potential demand we can assess where demand might be greatest and the relative scale of demand from the whereabouts of possible non-English speakers.

A8 Migrants

5.15 For A8 nationals we have used the WRS data although, as described in the method chapter, it has some limitations.

5.16 A8 migrants in Scotland have increased significantly in 2006 over 2004 and 2005. Nearly 18,000 registered in 2006 of which nearly three quarters were from Poland rising from two thirds in 2004 and 2005. The remaining A8 migrants are mostly from Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Latvia and Lithuania. Of all of the A8 migrants, only Polish, Hungarian and Slovakian migrants increased in number in 2006 over 2004 and 2005. ³²

5.17 In 2006, large numbers of A8 nationals were living in the main cities, Glasgow, Edinburgh, Dundee and Aberdeen, as well as in other areas around them especially Angus, and Aberdeenshire and in Highland and Perth and Kinross. One stakeholder in the Glasgow area even estimated that there could be as much as twice the number of A8 migrants that official figures show. At the same time, around a quarter of the A8 population lived in Fife and Tayside. This distribution had changed since 2004 and 2005. There was higher growth in Central West, with the proportion rising from 14.4% to 17.9%. The increase was especially strong in Glasgow, the North East/ NI, (especially in Aberdeen), and the South West, (especially in Dumfries and Galloway and South Lanarkshire). There are only a few areas that have relatively small numbers of A8 nationals; some around Glasgow, such as Inverclyde and West Dunbartonshire, as well as other areas such as Clackmannanshire and Orkney. ³³

5.18 Polish nationals are the predominant migrant group in most areas, significantly so in Edinburgh. However, there are some areas with larger numbers of other nationals which suggest specific concentrations. Examples include Latvians in Aberdeen, Aberdeenshire, Angus, Highland and Perth and Kinross; Lithuanians in Aberdeenshire, Angus and Perth and Kinross; Czechs in Perth and Kinross and Angus; Slovakians in Highland and Glasgow ³⁴. Table 5.1 shows the numbers of A8 migrants overall in Scotland disaggregated by country of origin, while Table 5.2 shows the concentration of A8 nationals in the different areas of the country. Table 5.3 shows the number of asylum seekers by area in 2004 and 2006.

Table 5.1 A8 Nationals on WRS

Source: WRS

Table 5.2 A8 Nationals area of residence

Source: WRS

Table 5.3 Asylum seekers

Source: Home Office (via CSMP)

5.19 The number of non-white, non- UK Nationals serves as a proxy for both new non A8 migrants and potential settled demand. While not all non-white, non- UK nationals have ESOL needs, the percentage distribution of this particular group provides information on the overall geographical spread of migration in Scotland. In 2004, over half of this population resided in Central West, while this percentage dropped to 47.7% by 2006 (see Table 5.4). There also continues to be a substantial migrant population in Central East. This is relatively consistent with the pattern of the BME population in Scotland.

Table 5.4 Non-White, Non- UK Nationals

Source: Annual Population Survey ( ONS)

The match between supply and potential demand

Impact of A8 Migration

5.20 The national picture suggests that the market for ESOL provision has responded to some of the growth in demand from A8 nationals, absorbing many of them in the last two years. Waiting lists have been used in some cases in response to growing demand and trends in the numbers of the main groups of learners (A8 nationals, refugees and asylum seekers, relatives of UK nationals) give some clues to the degree of balance and imbalance in supply and demand across Scotland when assessed against the pattern of ESOL provision.

5.21 As a starting point, it is worth reflecting on the correlation between the distribution of ESOL learning and A8 nationals. Table 5.5 below shows that there is not a close match. Central East, Fife and Tayside and to a large degree Central West have a higher proportion of ESOL learners in 2005-6 than their proportion of A8 nationals in 2006. For all the other areas it is the other way around with particularly large differences in the North East/ NI, South West and Highlands.

5.22 Demand is not just affected by A8 nationals, though it suggests that some areas which have not traditionally had either FE or CLD Partnership funding for ESOL, are not equipped with sufficient places.

Table 5.5 ESOL learners compared to A8 nationals

Source: WRS, SFC, SQA, Provider Questionnaires, Provider Interviews

Impact of Overall Migration

5.23 Just over a quarter of the estimated number of potential learners appear to have undertaken ESOL in 2005-6 (Table 5.6). The proportion varies significantly from area to area which suggests that provision is not equally available. Central West and South West are less well provided for; Central West especially with 44% of potential learners and only a third of the learners. Fife and Tayside has the highest proportion of potential learners in provision.

Table 5.6 Publicly funded ESOL learners and demand

Source: WRS, CSMP, ONS, SFC, SQA, Provider Questionnaires, Provider Interviews

5.24 Some regions have responded more positively than others in accommodating the influx of A8 migrants. Table 5.6 illustrates the regional change in supply in relation to the estimated change in potential demand.

5.25 Regions without much ESOL demand prior to A8 Accession have experienced the greatest growth in provision, some even at a greater growth rate than the estimated potential demand (Central, Highlands/ WI, and North East/ NI). This is because many local authorities in these regions were previously providing little or no ESOL, and have increased this since 2004.

5.26 In South West and South East, the change in supply has paralleled the growth in potential demand. Fife and Tayside has also experienced growth in provision comparable to the growth in demand.

5.27 Provision has risen least in the regions that traditionally had both large-level ESOL provision and high numbers of migrants. In Central East there was over a 100% increase in potential demand and only a 34% increase in provision. Conversely in Central West provision has decreased by 12%, while potential demand has increased by almost a third. Table 5.7 illustrates the change in provision in relation to population

Table 5.7: Provider response to change in demand (2004-2006)

Source: WRS, CSMP, ONS, SFC, SQA, Provider Questionnaires, Provider Interviews

Key points from this chapter

• Many providers attribute the growth of demand to A8 migrants;
• The number of A8 migrants has increased hugely since EU enlargement, while the numbers of settled migrants and asylum seekers has not increased significantly;
• There is a substantial demand for ESOL among asylum seekers and other migrants. The majority of asylum seekers are primarily in Glasgow;
• Just over half the voluntary and FE providers have continuous waiting lists, while other providers do not in many cases just because they do not keep data on them rather than because there is not a need;
• There are regional differences but also variations between providers in the same area. Waiting lists are more common in Central West than in more rural areas. This may be because they can offer more choice of courses and a greater chance of getting on a course;
• Waiting lists are used by providers in different ways, some use them regularly, others have ceased to use them and just re-open the application process when there are drop outs. Where providers have waiting lists they have seen them increase;
• Waiting lists are more common in accredited courses. Over half of the providers interviewed reported that these courses had waiting lists;
• There is a correlation between publicly funded ESOL and potential demand. The majority of provision and aggregate demand is in Central West, Central East and Fife and Tayside. Regions without much ESOL demand before EU enlargement have experienced the greatest growth in provision, some even at a greater growth rate than estimated potential demand;
• Areas that historically have had both large volume ESOL provision and high numbers of migrants, such as Central East and Central West, also have increased potential demand since A8 Accession;
• Provision in Central West has fallen though potential demand has risen nor has provision gown in Central East in proportion to potential demand.

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