The Scottish Government

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CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION

Demographic context

1.1 For a considerable time, Scotland has been a country of net out-migration, with more people leaving to live elsewhere than moving in. However, since the 1960s net out-migration has reduced significantly and from the late 1980s Scotland has been experiencing a net migration gain rather than loss. In 2003 and 2004 net gains were 9,000 and 26,000 respectively. ³ However, in-migration has not been large enough to counteract the wider trend of indigenous population decline. The population continued to fall between the 1991 and 2001 censuses. Current forecasts are that it will fall further from 5.05 million in 2002 to under 5 million by 2007 and to 4.84 million by 2027. The population is aging with the number of people at pensionable age estimated to rise by 25% by 2027. ⁴

1.2 It is projected that in-migration gains will continue due to the rising number of Accession 8 (A8) nationals entering Scotland as well as the Scottish Government's initiatives, such as 'Fresh Talent' ⁵, which aim to increase the number of economic migrants, especially skilled migrants, and the UK Government's policy of dispersing asylum seekers and refugees. The Scottish Refugee Council estimates that there are currently around 10,000 asylum seekers/refugees resident in Scotland - the majority from countries where English is not the first language. ⁶

1.3 In-migrants have generally been concentrated in the main population centres: Glasgow, Edinburgh, Dundee and Aberdeen. Analyses of in-migration trends in Scotland over the last 20-30 years between censuses show that:

• Migrants from elsewhere in the UK have predominantly gone to the Edinburgh and Aberdeen areas, but more recently significant numbers have moved to rural areas such as the Highlands, Argyll and Bute, reversing population decline. Indeed, between 1992 and 2003, net in-migration rates have been highest in areas around Edinburgh (East and West Lothian), the Borders, Perth and Kinross with the highest net out-migration rates in Aberdeen and the Glasgow-Clyde area;
• Commonwealth migrants, particularly of Black and Minority Ethnic ( BME) origin, have also tended to settle in the major cities, notably Glasgow, with concentrations in specific areas of the city, Edinburgh, Dundee and East Renfrewshire. These are predominantly Pakistani with smaller numbers from other parts of the Indian sub-continent and Chinese;
• Other migrants, principally asylum seekers from a wider range of countries, have moved to the Glasgow area mainly since 2000, as a result of the local authority in partnership with the Home Office housing them in the short term. In August 2006, asylum seekers numbered just over 5,000. The largest groups, making up about half the total, came from Congo, Iran, Iraq, Turkey, Pakistan and Somalia. ⁷

1.4 More recent trends are difficult to quantify. Some studies indicate that in-migration has increased significantly since 2001 and that much larger numbers are coming from other parts of the European Union, especially since 2004 from the A8 countries, Poland, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Slovenia and Hungary. ⁸

1.5 Worker Registration Scheme ( WRS) data shows that from 1 May 2004 until 31 December 2006, 38,797 A8 nationals (8% of the UK total) were residing in Scotland, two thirds of whom were from Poland and the remainder predominantly from Lithuania and Slovakia. ⁹ There has been little let up in the last year so Scotland may well be attracting around 15,000 new migrants a year, half of which are suggested to remain at least a year. ¹⁰ New migrants are mainly working in agriculture, tourism, hospitality, manufacturing and food processing. These are not all occupations which have been traditionally associated with non-English speaking migrants and many of these jobs will be in rural areas. ¹¹

1.6 Some local studies indicate that migrants are settling in the major cities but also in smaller urban centres and rural areas which have not traditionally had many in-migrants from outside the UK. Research commissioned by Communities Scotland has highlighted growing numbers in Tayside as a whole in particular in the areas around Dundee. ¹² There are similar increases in South and North Lanarkshire where Polish migrants mainly are working in food processing and agriculture. ¹³ A similar pattern is reported in England with considerable growth in rural areas of the country where there are low numbers of BME in-migrants. ¹⁴ Other evidence supports this, such as reports about the growing Bulgarian community in Dundee. ¹⁵

1.7 At the same time, the number of asylum applications has fallen significantly. For the UK as a whole in 2006, there were 27,800 asylum seekers including dependants, about a quarter of the total in 2001. ¹⁶

Need for ESOL - English for Speakers of Other Languages

1.8 The economic and social importance of English for Speakers of Other Languages ( ESOL) learning has been well recognised as a key factor in the successful integration of migrants. Competency in English is known to help secure stable employment and improve the quality of daily life and welfare and contribute to social inclusion, integration and active citizenship. This has been strongly supported by the UK Government's Commission on Integrated Cohesion. ¹⁷

1.9 Changes to the UK naturalisation requirements under the Nationality, Immigration and Asylum Act 2002, stipulate that to apply for British citizenship applicants must show sufficient knowledge of English, Welsh or Scots' Gaelic, and life in the UK, to be considered for naturalisation. Under the Home Office's five year strategy, Controlling Our Borders: Making Migration Work for Britain, ¹⁸ to make migration work those who apply for permanent leave to remain in the UK will also have to demonstrate language knowledge.

1.10 A significant proportion of A8 migrants who have been surveyed for this study report that they have been attracted to the UK because of the opportunity to improve their English. Many are staying longer than they expected and over a third report taking up ESOL courses since they came. ¹⁹

1.11 ESOL needs are likely to arise from:

• established BME communities where language skills for older residents born abroad remain low and where the population continues to increase from in migration because of family and cultural ties;
• continuing temporary settlement of asylum seekers and refugees of whom those given leave to stay may well make Scotland their home;
• some skilled migrants attracted to Scotland and encouraged to stay after visiting or learning in Scottish institutions; and
• skilled and unskilled migrants from the EU arriving since EU enlargement, many of whom may work and settle in Scotland for longer periods.

1.12 The pattern and nature of ESOL need may also be changing. The most recent in-migrants - including those from A8 countries and asylum seekers - are not evenly distributed and many are living in areas that have not previously had considerable numbers of in-migrants with ESOL needs.

ESOL learning in Scotland

Provision

1.13 In the Lifelong Learning Strategy from 2003, the Scottish Executive explained its commitment to encouraging "the best possible match between the learning opportunities open to people and the skills, knowledge, attitudes and behaviours which will strengthen Scotland's economy and society." ²⁰ Increasing demands on ESOL providers have led to the Scottish Government's additional investment of £5.4 million to support for part-time ESOL and non-advanced and advanced vocational courses from 2001-2004. In publishing its ESOL strategy in March 2007 to improve progression, inclusion and the quality of teaching, the Scottish Government pledged to increase funding by £5 million during 2007/08 to create around an additional 4000 classroom places so that language is not a barrier to people settling in Scotland. ²¹

1.14 Currently, ESOL provision is offered by a variety of organisations, including FE colleges, local authority adult and community learning, work based learning, private providers, Higher Education Institutions ( HEIs) and voluntary organisations. This is funded in a variety of ways, though chiefly by the Scottish Government through the Scottish Funding Council ( SFC) to FE colleges and through its general grant to local authorities for adult education and adult literacies. Other funding comes from the European Social Fund ( ESF), Jobcentre Plus schemes, and projects to assist with employment and skills training. There is also anecdotal evidence that private language schools have grown in scale in the last few years.

1.15 In addition, ESOL is being combined with preparations for citizenship testing. NIACE (National Institute for Adult and Continuing Education) and LLU+ (at London South Bank University) have produced a pack of learning and teaching materials which combines ESOL teaching with a citizenship content. Through Home Office resources this pack has been adapted to Scotland and piloted at five Scottish Qualifications Authority ( SQA) centres in the first part of 2006. ²²

1.16 It was estimated in the 2003-4 research that most learners, around 80%, attended classes delivered by FE colleges, either in colleges or in outreach classes at community centres, and most learners were part-time. ²³ The range of choice was considered greater in urban areas with FE college providers able to offer more opportunities for different levels of learning and different modes (full-time and part time).

Supply and demand

1.17 Only the University of Abertay study has made any previous estimate of supply and demand for ESOL learning in Scotland. They calculated around 50,000 potential learners in Scotland in 2004 on the basis of estimating that a third of the total of second language speakers reported in the 2001 census (adjusted for migration trends) needed ESOL learning. They estimated that in 2003-4 there were just over 12,000 learners attending around 700 ESOL courses or studying at home with a tutor in the publicly funded sector. ²⁴ It is therefore very likely that there is considerable unmet demand though the private sector and HEIs meet some of it. Lengthy waiting lists were reported in Glasgow and Edinburgh. This has continued to be the case with reports by colleges in some areas that courses are substantially oversubscribed because of demand from workers from the A8 countries.

The aims and objectives of this study

1.18 In January 2007 GHK Consulting was commissioned by the then Enterprise, Transport and Lifelong Learning Department of the Scottish Government with the aim of examining whether and, if so, to what extent the demand for ESOL from publicly funded provision has increased since 2004 when the A8 countries joined the EU and what impact the new UK citizenship test/ ESOL with citizenship has had on demand for ESOL. For this project GHK also carried out an international comparison in order to produce a case study of Australia's English as a Second Language ( ESL) provision, the background and language needs of learners, the different types of provision available and the policy responses to increased migration in terms of provision (nature, scale of availability, quality, fee contribution). The aim was to gain further information on this country's experience of migration and provision of ESL, for comparisons with the Scottish system and to identify examples of good practice. For details of this please see Annex 4.

1.19 The key objectives of the research were to provide the following:

• an accurate picture of the current and projected levels of provision/demand for ESOL considering numbers of learners studying, waiting lists, waiting times, and current capacity with analysis by learning level, mode of study and sector;
• as far as possible an analysis of the ESOL learners and their characteristics (gender, age, employment status and qualifications, nationality/ethnic origin, and disability); and
• an understanding of issues around ESOL provision including how many ESOL learners have adult literacy needs, the potential for charging fees to some learners, the numbers of ESOL learners wanting to take citizenship tests and the relative costs of ESOL courses.

1.20 As a consequence this study seeks to measure supply and demand for ESOL learning by developing an in-depth picture of suppliers of ESOL learning and their funding bodies, and mapping this supply of courses, against revealed demand and estimates of potential or required demand. It then seeks to understand the drivers of supply and demand from discussions with providers, learners and other stakeholders.

Report structure

1.21 Chapter 2 outlines the quantitative and qualitative methodology used for the study. Chapter 3 provides an overview of the supply of ESOL across Scotland through examining the number of learners undertaking classes since the EU enlargement. Chapter 4 provides a profile of learners from providers. In Chapter 5 we map the match between supply and demand and of ESOL across Scotland to assess the extent of mismatch. In Chapter 6 we present the results of our qualitative research with learners, providers and stakeholders which explored the factors affecting the supply of ESOL provision. In Chapter 7 we draw on the interviews of learners, providers and stakeholders to explore some of the factors that have affected demand for ESOL courses. Chapter 8 draws out the findings from interviews with 8 HEIs about their ESOL provision. Chapter 9 draws out some conclusions and recommendations based on our findings.

1.22 The Annexes provide additional information used in conducting this study. Annex 1 is the online survey of providers; Annex 2 contains the topic guides for the interviews. Annex 3 lists the sample of regions we used in our fieldwork. Finally, Annex 4 offers the international comparison.

Key Points from this chapter

• In-migration to Scotland is increasing and projected to grow, compensating for indigenous population decline. Data shows increasingly that migrants are arriving from A8 countries and that the number of asylum applications has fallen;
• Migrants have been concentrated in main population centres but more recently there are increasing numbers settling into new areas, including more rural parts of Scotland;
• The economic and social importance of ESOL learning is a key factor in the successful integration of migrants. English competency is known to improve quality of life and welfare and to contribute to social inclusion;
• The introduction of the citizenship test could affect the increased need for ESOL as it includes a language requirement;
• Provision is offered by a diversity of organisations such as FE colleges, local authorities, employers, private providers, HEIs, and voluntary organisations which are funded in a variety of ways. Most learners attend courses at FE providers.

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