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5. Analysis of Reconviction Rates

5.1 Overall reconviction rates

Of the 46,918 offenders with an index conviction in 2003-04, Table 2 shows that 22 per cent were reconvicted within 6 months, 33 per cent within one year, 45 per cent within two years. The proportion of offenders who received a custodial reconviction was 6 per cent within 6 months rising to 14 per cent after 2 years.

Table 2: Persons released from a custodial sentence or given a non-custodial sentence in 2003-04
Percentage reconvicted within 6 months to 2 years, by sex and age

5.2 Reconviction rates by sex and age

Male offenders are more likely to be reconvicted than females, 46 per cent of males were reconvicted within two years compared to 38 per cent of females. This difference applied across all age groups. However, for those persons who are reconvicted within two years, there was little difference between the sexes in the average number of reconvictions acquired.

5.3 For male offenders, the overall reconviction rate decreases with age. 56 per cent of those males aged under 21 were reconvicted within 2 years compared with 36 per cent of those aged over 30. Females aged 21-25 were more likely to be reconvicted than any other female age group, with 45 per cent being reconvicted within 2 years. Females over 30 were the group least likely overall to be reconvicted within 2 years (30 per cent). For custodial reconvictions, offenders aged in their twenties were more likely to receive a custodial reconviction compared with younger and older offender age groups.

Table 3: Persons released from a custodial sentence or given a non-custodial sentence in 2003-04
Percentage reconvicted within 2 years, by sex, age and number of reconvictions

1. Average for offenders who had at least one reconviction within 2 years.

5.4 Reconviction rates by number and type of previous convictions

Table 4 shows that the likelihood of reconviction increased markedly with the number of previous convictions held by the offender at the time of their index conviction. Three quarters of those offenders with over 10 previous convictions were reconvicted within two years compared with only 26 per cent of offenders with no previous convictions. Similarly, 62 per cent of those offenders with over 10 previous custodial convictions were given a further custodial conviction within two years compared to 7 per cent of those with no previous custodial convictions.

Table 4: Persons released from a custodial sentence or given a non-custodial sentence in 2003-04
Percentage reconvicted within 6 months to 2 years, by number and type of previous convictions ⁽¹⁾

1. Convictions since start of 1989.
2. Convictions resulting in probation or community service.

5.5 The length of time to reconviction is also likely to be shorter for those offenders with higher numbers of previous convictions. Sixty-one per cent of offenders with over 10 previous convictions are reconvicted within 1 year compared to less than 40 per cent for all other groups. This is further illustrated by Chart 1 on page 1 which shows the reconviction rates in each month of the first two years following the offender's index conviction. The reconviction rates for offenders with over 10 previous convictions are significantly higher than the other groups from month 1.

5.6 For those offenders who had at least one reconviction within two years, the average number of reconvictions rose from 2.0 for those with no previous convictions to 3.4 for those with over 10 previous convictions.

Table 5: Persons released from a custodial sentence or given a non-custodial sentence in 2003-04
Percentage reconvicted within 2 years, by number and type of previous convictions ⁽¹⁾ and number of reconvictions

1. Convictions since start of 1989.
2. Convictions resulting in probation or community service.
3. Average for offenders who had at least one reconviction within 2 years.

5.7 Reconviction rates by index disposal and index crime

Those offenders who were discharged from a custodial sentence (64 per cent) or given probation (61 per cent) were on average more likely to be reconvicted within two years than those given a monetary penalty (41 per cent) or community service (39 per cent). Offenders discharged from custody were much more likely to acquire a custodial reconviction: 43 per cent were given a further custodial sentence within two years compared to 10 per cent of those given a non-custodial sentence as their index disposal. Of those offenders with at least one reconviction within two years, those who were discharged from custody (3.3) or given probation (3.0) have a greater number of reconvictions on average than those given community service (2.2), a monetary penalty (2.3) or another form of disposal (2.3).

Table 6: Persons released from a custodial sentence or given a non-custodial sentence in 2003-04
Percentage reconvicted within 2 years, by index disposal and crime in 2003-04

Table 7: Persons released from a custodial sentence or given a non-custodial sentence in 2003-04
Percentage reconvicted within 2 years, by index disposal and crime in 2003-04 and number of reconvictions

1. Average for offenders who had at least one reconviction within 2 years.

5.8 The comparison of reconviction rates across disposals is complicated by a number of issues. Pseudo reconviction rates can have a differential effect across different types of disposal and this is discussed further in Section 8. In addition, the characteristics of offenders receiving different disposals are likely to be different. Indeed, the risk of re-offending is often taken into account at the time of sentence. The issue of offender characteristics is considered in Table 8.

Table 8: Persons released from a custodial sentence or given a non-custodial sentence in 2003-04
Percentage reconvicted within 2 years, by index disposal in 2003-04 age, sex and number of previous convictions ⁽¹⁾

1. Convictions since the start of 1989.

5.9 Once the age, sex and particularly the number of previous convictions of offenders are taken into account, the differences observed in average reconviction rates for different types of index disposal are found to be less significant. These factors are all strongly associated with the likelihood of reconviction. Table 8 shows that for all types of disposal, and for all sex and age groups, the percentage of offenders with over 10 previous convictions who were reconvicted within two years - typically over 70 per cent - were all fairly similar. This was also broadly the case for offenders with smaller numbers of previous convictions. In other words, the number of previous convictions held by an offender appeared to be the dominant factor in terms of the likelihood of reconviction. The main exception to this pattern was for offenders with no, or only one or two, previous convictions who were given probation. These offenders, particularly those in the younger age groups, had higher reconviction rates than offenders of the same age and with a similar previous conviction history who had other types of index disposal, even compared with those discharged from custody.

5.10 Reconviction rates also vary according to the index crime. Table 6 on page 10 shows that those offenders with a sexual crime as their index crime had the lowest reconviction rate on average (16 per cent reconvicted within two years) although this is based on a particularly small number of offenders (466). Those with a crime of dishonesty as their index crime had the highest reconviction rate (57 per cent reconvicted within two years). Many offenders acquire convictions for a variety of crimes. For example, Table 9 shows that, with the exception of those convicted of fraud, between 17 and 29 per cent of offenders with an index conviction in 2003-04 in the dishonesty crime categories were reconvicted for a violent crime within two years. Conversely, offenders convicted for certain categories of crime are more likely to be reconvicted for the same type of crime: the percentage reconvicted within two years for the same type of crime as the index crime was highest for prostitution offences (60 per cent), shoplifting (47 per cent), breach of the peace (30 per cent) and housebreaking (27 per cent).

Table 9: Persons released from a custodial sentence or given a non-custodial sentence in 2003-04
Percentage reconvicted within 2 years for selected crimes, by index crime, in 2003-04

1. Excluding housebreaking.
2. See Annex note 12 for definition.

Chart 2a: Reconviction rates of offenders discharged from custody or given non-custodial sentences in 2003-04 by index crime

Chart 2b: Custodial reconviction rates of offenders discharged from custody or given noncustodial sentences in 2003-04 by index crime

5.11 Reconviction rate by age at first conviction

The younger an offender is at the time of their first conviction, the more likely they are to be reconvicted. Almost three quarters (72 per cent) of those offenders aged under 16 at their first conviction are reconvicted within two years of their index conviction in 2003-04. This compares to just 22 per cent of those offenders in the 2003-04 cohort who were aged over 30 at their first recorded conviction. Of all those offenders in this cohort, 14 per cent receive a custodial reconviction within two years. This increases significantly to 43 per cent for those who received their first conviction when they were under 16. As noted at point 16 of the annex, convictions for those aged under 16 will generally have involved the more serious types of offence.

Table 10: Persons released from a custodial sentence or given a non-custodial sentence in 2003-04
Percentage reconvicted within 6 months to 2 years, by sex, number of previous convictions and age at first conviction ⁽¹⁾

1. Convictions recorded since 1989.

5.11 The age of the offender at the time of their first conviction also affects the number of reconvictions they are likely to accrue in the follow up period. Thirty-nine per cent of those offenders aged under 16 at the time of their first conviction have 3 or more reconvictions within two years of their index conviction in 2003-04. Of those offenders with at least one reconviction, the average number of reconvictions decreases markedly with age at first conviction. Offenders who were under 16 at the time of their first conviction have on average 3.3 reconvictions within two years of their index conviction in 2003-04, decreasing steadily to 2.0 for those over 30 at the time of their first conviction.

5.12 Taking the number of previous convictions into account as well as the offender's age at the first of those convictions, those offenders who are youngest at the time of their first conviction and have the most previous convictions have the highest reconviction rates. For example, 81 per cent of offenders who have over 10 previous convictions and were under 16 at the time of their first conviction are reconvicted within two years of their index conviction in 2003-04.

Table 11: Persons released from a custodial sentence or given a non-custodial sentence in 2003-04
Percentage reconvicted within 2 years, by sex, age at first conviction ⁽¹⁾ and number of reconvictions

1. Convictions recorded since 1989.
2. Average for offenders who had at least one reconviction within two years.

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