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Annex B2: Core change drivers and uncertainties
Introduction
B2.1 The scenario methodology used in the project is well tested and has been the basis of many successful scenario thinking outcomes over many years. Whilst attempting to work with what stakeholders have suggested are the two primary uncertainties and those felt to have the most significant impact on the tertiary education system and the colleges' sector, there were many other factors that workshops participants and other contributors felt should be captured. The next most significant set, which have been played into most or all of the four scenarios but in slightly different ways, are described below.
Overview of change drivers
B2.2 It could be argued that to an extent, the demographics may change but the overwhelming 'certainty' is that of a considerably different demographic structure in Scotland than ever before given the data from the Executive's trends and futures work. A short demographics think paper was issued to members of the working group to support their knowledge of this change driver.
B2.3 World events are, perhaps by definition, completely out of anyone's real control and certainly out of Scotland's further education sector. To an extent there are polarised views about the trajectory and therefore impacts of 'globalisation' and as a change driver offers some interesting and contrasting 'what-ifs'.
B2.4 Government's impact appears perhaps less certain, however, as international research is demonstrating there is a significant degree of convergence around governments' role, size, impact and levels of intervention. This is no less evident in the UK and Scottish context. World events and 'globalisation' may however influence these parameters.
Demographic change
B2.5 Perhaps the most 'known' about or relatively certain, given that the trends indicate an ageing population in Scotland over the time period of the potential scenario horizon of 20 years. The uncertainty dynamic in the demographics trend may however be the emerging change and scale of in migration and changes in population flows in the EU. Globalisation and perhaps some world events or 'shocks' will also have an impact on this driver.
'Globalisation' effects
B2.6 This does not simply imply changes in the global macro economies, business movements and capital flows, but includes such factors as the role and intervention powers of governments and the state; the shifts in societal values as 'globalisation' impacts are felt; the adoption or rejection of business models and values; the use and influence of technology and technological change; the environmental impact of a more 'globalised' economy based on for examples the developments in the BRICs countries (Brazil, Russia, India & China) and in particular the Indian and Chinese 'industrial revolution' phases.
World events
B2.7 What some term the 'MacMillan effect' from the 1960s UK Prime Minister's comment about " events, dear boy, events". Wholly unpredictable, not only as cataclysmic events. An important consideration given that no-one predicted the scale and audacity of 9/11, but the changes that this wrought in the world since then has been, some would argue, fundamental. Perhaps however given the primary focus for the work, the strategic futures of the Scottish colleges, it was felt less useful to introduce any 'events' formally into the scenario set. Some introduction of such world events may be used during the implications workshop.
Impact of government fiscal and policy approaches
B2.8 This includes the regulatory, funding and policy context aspects of local, national and international government and the intervention by the state in further education.
Malcolm Hutchinson, Viable Futures
28 November 2006
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