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Annex B1: Methodology
B1.1 The methodology used followed a standard scenario construction practice and is described later. In essence this combined primary data, from facilitated workshops and discussions involving a wide range of core stakeholders within the tertiary education system and the further education and colleges sector, and the consideration of secondary research material from others' futures work. The outputs from this process are a number of narratives describing four different but plausible Scotlands around 2021 that could very well provide operational contexts for Scotland's colleges at that time.
B1.2 The outputs are therefore a set of high level qualitative scenarios outlining alternative futures with accompanying explanatory material to guide the reader through each and the core differences between them. The set of scenarios, and the underlying framework and process that informed their development, can be used after this phase of activity as a foundation for deeper and more detailed scenario planning exercises, including the input of some quantitative data if useful and prudent. The process will inform the work of the review and provide a further prompt to the strategic futures facing Scotland's colleges and the college sector.
B1.3 Scenarios are pictures of plausible futures, best constructed from a combination of primary and secondary data, and facilitate structured thinking about uncertainty and the complex interplay of higher impact change drivers. The primary data in this project has been developed from a range of semi-structured discussions, some conducted earlier with the Scottish colleges' leadership and other key stakeholders and some more recently from workshops, one-to-one and telephone interviews, workshops and scenario development meetings. The secondary material has been generated from others' futures and scenario material broadly investigating the same timeframe for Scotland or the education and learning dynamic. This includes for example the Executive's Futures Project's Strategic Audit and Trends Analysis, the Foresight 2020 scenarios, the recently published Learning and Skills Council scenarios and studies of e-learning and educational developments internationally.
B1.4 They may require, and would benefit from, further refining as a result of additional discussions with, for example, other review workstream considerations and outputs. The scenarios are not pictures derived externally from the tertiary education system or colleges sector, but as a synthesis, in scenario format, of the hopes, concerns and significant uncertainties, opportunities and issues of core stakeholders.
Malcolm Hutchinson, Viable Futures
28 November 2006
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