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Annex B: Scenario development project
Malcolm Hutchinson, Viable Futures

An introduction to the process and the intentions for the scenarios

The structure of the report

B.1 This report synthesises activities that have culminated in the creation of a set of four scenarios describing Scotland in 2021 in four different ways for use in current and future discussions on the strategic contribution to be made by and challenges facing Scotland's colleges. Three formal workshops were held with the working group, one meeting with the steering group, a number of semi-structured interviews with nominated stakeholders, and a number of smaller workshops and meetings of the cross-stakeholder scenario development team. The report:

• describes the role for the scenarios;
• outlines the scenario matrix used to create the basic template from which the scenario narratives were written;
• provides further background detail of underlying differences in the scenarios;
• sets out the four scenario narratives; and
• provides methodological and further background information (Appendices B1 and B2).

Scenarios and their role in the Review of Scotland's Colleges

B.2 One of the four workstreams of the Review of Scotland's Colleges ( RoSCo), the Strategic Futures workstream, has the remit to consider the strategic implications that may present themselves for Scotland's colleges in the future. To assist in their task, it was decided to engage in aspects of scenario thinking. This report incorporates four possible scenarios for 2021 that have been constructed for that purpose. These are plausible futures that describe different Scotlands in 15 years time. The scenarios have been developed as a collaborative effort with various representative groups of the stakeholders in Scotland's learning system and tribute is paid to the steering group, the working group and in particular to considerable efforts of the small scenario development team formed from membership of the working group.

B.3 The four scenarios are descriptions of different strategic contexts within which the colleges' stakeholders and leadership may have to respond. The scenarios deliberately do not describe the numbers, structures, roles or outputs and outcomes for and of the colleges. There are also no judgements made as to whether these scenarios represent 'good' or 'bad' outcomes for Scotland. Their principal purpose is to ask the question "is the college sector prepared for a number of equally possible futures and, if not, what should be done about that?".

B.4 Scenarios are not predictions or forecasts of the future. They are simply thinking tools to encourage debate around the possibilities that the future may hold given a number of current trends, change drivers and uncertainties. The scenarios do however represent the shared views of a number of important stakeholders that have been part of the developmental process and have agreed that each of the elements within and each of the scenarios as a whole are plausible. It is possible that elements within each of the four scenarios presented here may occur in or before 2021. It is also important to bear in mind that no one scenario has been constructed as a preferred option for a future Scotland. They contain aspects that should be of concern to those leading the policy, strategy and operational readiness of the colleges towards the next 5 to 15 years who have the responsibility to ensure Scotland's colleges remain excellent, thrive in a viable and in a sustainable manner and from which to be held to account. The key to the process is to use the scenarios to address some critical strategic challenges.

B.5 The scenario process recognised that the tertiary education system operates within a political framework but the scenarios themselves are not concerned with the party political nature of any future government in Scotland. They are deliberately politically neutral. They assume no particular political administration, single party control or forms of coalition.

B.6 Some early discussions based on these scenarios during the implications workshop that were focused on what might be required to achieve favourable outcomes surfaced some preliminary thoughts for the college sector and its engagement within the learning system and with other critical players. Outline feedback from these discussions is available as unedited workshop feedback. Much more extensive use of the scenarios as prompts for strategic conversations between stakeholders is however required to optimise the benefit from having created them.

Outline summaries of the scenarios

Content, Smart and Enlightened

B.7 Scotland in 2021 is fairly similar to Scotland in 2006. In particular there is a similar feel to civic society and the learning market but the effects of 'certainties' such as demographic change and further environmental decay have now made considerable impacts. This is a Scotland which, whilst not amongst the richest nations of the world, has chosen not to continue to chase growth, has a highly educated population and is recognised as one of the most enlightened small countries in the world.

Stewardship Society

B.8 Scotland's progress has been central to European success and in particular the growth of the EU's small country economies. Through the path to 2021 Scotland has been very successful in attracting private sector investment, has developed an internationally renowned and thriving social economy optimising the input of a strong voluntary sector. Successive government policies and partnerships with key national economic stakeholders have continued to provide a sustainable, genuinely mixed economy with well rewarded private, public and voluntary career opportunities.

Planning to Survive

B.9 Scotland has never quite connected economically despite early promise and puts its faith in planning and directive policies of government to stabilise the economy and elements of societal breakdown. For some, it is a comfort zone country with high dependency on the state; for others a country with restrictions and barriers to creativity and individualism. Scotland in 2021 has major government intervention and regulation in the economy, society and the learning system. It is a safe and secure but risk averse and protectively traditionalist nation.

MacTiger

B.10 The Scottish economy of 2021 is more successful than in 2006 and society is significantly more consumerist in its nature. It enjoys a strong education system focused primarily on the demands of individual learners. Challenges for Scottish 2021 society include dealing with labour shortages in key areas of the public sector, pockets of high social deprivation, a breakdown in earlier traditional community values, rural depopulation and environmental degradation. Scotland has become a less tolerant nation. Given the opportunities that are available to individuals, the nation is generally less inclined to support those "not pulling their weight".

The scenario matrix

B.11 The four scenarios have been developed from a standard two axes or 2x2 matrix (see table). The two axes represent what emerged after considerable discussion by the working group participants, members of the steering group, the scenario development team and other contributors. The two most significant change drivers that were perceived to carry the highest levels of both uncertainty and impact on the future of Scotland's colleges are reflected on the two axes.

B.12 The 'x', or horizontal axis, reflects "the nature and shape of Scotland's economy". To the left extreme of this axis is a picture of a Scotland that may have a poorer economic position, strength and potential than in 2006, for example, in terms of GDP per capita. It may also be significantly more sluggish than, for example, many other comparable international competitors. It reflects an economy that never quite embraced the challenges and opportunities from a more globalised and knowledge-based trading and economic environment. To the right extreme, the economy tends to a significantly successful international 'small country' economy with relatively high GDP per capita and significant levels of connectivity to knowledge-based markets. The least successful economic position is reflected in Planning to Survive while the most successful position is of MacTiger. No inference is made to the relative worth of current economic policies as these different economic outcomes will have been due mostly to global and international events, some of which Scotland would have little control over.

B.13 The ' y', or vertical axis, represents a construct developed by the scenario team which has been termed 'responsibility for learning'. This was required as the workstream's working and steering groups did not feel that any one of three significant uncertainties reflected in isolation the way the future might play out. The axis therefore reflects a convergence of three principal factors:

• the levels of individual choice available to learners inherent in the learning system;
• the range of provision in the learning system; and
• the desire, requirement or capacity, particularly of government and to an extent the business sector, to plan and direct the learning system.

B.14 At the upper extreme of the 'y' axis there is a situation of almost complete laissez-faire and consumer/user driven learning with a significantly wide range of learning provision and modes of delivery on offer, essentially a consumer-driven learning system with minimal intervention by government. At the other extreme, the learning system is highly planned and to an extent shaped by government and possibly business interests to 'plan and provide' outputs and outcomes believed to be more attuned to intended economic development objectives.

B.15 The scenarios are formed from the interplay of these two key uncertainties populated with a range of other change drivers and trends derived from primary data (workshop and interview material) and secondary research data from other futures work elsewhere. None of the scenarios however operate at the extremes. A list of the most important drivers and uncertainties surfaced during the development of these scenarios and the manner in which they play through each scenario is included at Appendix B2.

B.16 Mapping the zones where the different scenarios play out on the matrix is also important to consider when reading the diagram. It intends to highlight visually the fact that each scenario sits on a different position on both the axes than its counterpart scenarios. That means that no scenario exists in the same set of economic conditions or the learning system's approach to responsibility to learning.

Primary drivers and core factors differentiated in each scenario

B.17 The previous section describes the two primary drivers used to construct the basic scenario template. From this a number of other key change drivers and uncertainties are introduced into the scenario development. The following table and the text which follows illustrate how each of these change forces, uncertainties and factors of particular interest to the colleges sector have been played into each scenario. This should be used to add a deeper insight into, for example, what kind of operational context is being suggested in each different 2021. The table below outlines how some other assumptions about a number of issues of direct relevance to the college sector are intended to play through each of the four scenarios.

The four scenario narratives

B.18 The following four narratives are copies of articles from editions of political and economic commentary magazines in 2021. They describe four different contexts from which Scotland's colleges and the sector's stakeholders in 2021 will have to operate.

Content, Smart and Enlightened

Overview

B.19 Scotland in 2021 is fairly similar to Scotland in 2006. In particular there is a similar feel to civic society and the learning market but the effects of 'certainties' such as demographic change and further environmental decay have now made considerable impacts. This is a Scotland which, whilst not amongst the richest nations of the world, has chosen not to continue to chase growth, has a highly educated population and is recognised as one of the most enlightened small countries in the world.

Narrative

B.20 Scotland's economy in 2021 is as " productive and successful as we need it to be, given our first priority on maximising the overall well-being and happiness of the whole population" in a recent Scottish Government document. One of the defining moments came in 2017 when Scotland was first in the Global Sustainability Index UN award. Ageing downshifters to an extent saved the country's economic crisis by engaging in the wide diversity of opportunities in re-skilling and career re-entry, government funded programmes of the 2010s. They now form a high proportion of the self-learning communities of practice evidenced across Scotland underpinning a renaissance of Scotland's less densely populated areas and middle and small sized towns. Technological and communications investment and innovations in the late 2000s paid off with little talk now of a digital divide. Despite the potential to modernise learning delivery, helped by earlier investments in technology and communications, learners and learning providers in Scotland have been quite slow to fully embrace the modernisation potential. In comparison to other countries, Scotland feels secure, safe, and tolerant. As a result of this and a wide choice of learning opportunities, Scotland has become increasingly more attractive to international students.

B.21 A higher level of active citizenship is prevalent throughout 2021 Scotland. This is also manifested in a more sophisticated politics and political engagement in society. The climate and environmental catastrophes that impacted on Scotland's west coast eight years ago shocked the country into a realism on individual environmental responsibility and awareness. These triggers provide continuing opportunities and motivation for awareness raising and learning. The strong encouragement across society for all to participate in learning and participation is not necessarily from the desire to obtain employment or career advancement. There is a broad acceptance of the desire to learn for 'learning's sake' and for the inherent social, health and welfare benefits that accrue as a result. Participation rates in learning are very high in comparison to comparator countries. Whilst Scotland's population is now one of the oldest amongst the smaller nations, the strengths and contributions from the population have been embraced through a positive attitude to genuine lifelong learning and its very real contribution to the development of a sustainable society.

B.22 Green issues have become increasingly mainstream. Scotland to 2021 opted, with a number of the world's smaller nations, not to chase economic growth but maintain focus on developing and maximising its inherent societal and environmental opportunities. In doing so, it lost out on many purely economic benefits from increased globalisation of services in the early 2000s but avoided a number of negative impacts, particularly the loss of social cohesion and social capital generation. To an extent it is also relatively more peripheral to Europe than in 2006.

B.23 There is a better understanding of the important correlation between levels of national (and to an extent individual) happiness and overall health and well being. Since 2015, Scotland has remained in the top three of small nations NHI (National Happiness Index published by OECD). Despite this, many younger people over the last 10 to 15 years felt that Scotland was not a dynamic place to further high earning potential careers and a higher proportion of Scotland's younger population left after achieving vocational and professional accreditation. The economy did not match their income aspirations. Those that remain however are amongst the most successful entrepreneurs of their international peer group. Many of the younger people in more successful EU countries have now achieved such income levels within their own countries and no longer come to Scotland in search of work. Scotland continues to have some transient immigration, with young people coming from the new accession countries of Serbia and Albania.

B.24 Public investment in education and learning over the early 2000s remained substantial, the legacy remaining in terms of a reasonable learning system capital estate and infrastructure, but now starting to deteriorate. A diversity of learning delivery opportunities co-exist with a variety of funding models enjoying significantly more localised approaches to allocation and accountability. Given the comparative lack of strength in the economy, there is a moderately low and declining level of public funding available for the learning system, however, public funding for learning, as a % of total funding from public sources, remains significant. Other, and in some cases, increasing reliance on, funding comes from international organisations, public educational and corporates, prepared to pay a premium to have their users learn in a less frenetic and environmentally healthier country. Older people who are willing to pay to combine foreign travel whilst undertaking leisure courses in retirement are an important market.

B.25 Funding is more individualised and focused on learner choices, however, decisions must be made in partnership with provider organisations and some funding remains as direct provision to some learning institutions. Learners are entitled to study to what was once known as Honours level with some funding available for those able to proceed to the highest level of academic awards. Due to the low level of direct public funding available, funding for learners has become more means tested from SCQF level 9 onwards. A growing number of young people choose not to continue with tertiary education as they see no economic benefit for doing so, however, as lifelong learning is highly regarded in this society, more people are being encouraged to learn as a hobby. A significant level of learning, teaching and education is also provided on a voluntary basis.

B.26 Core public services challenges in 2021 remain to assist an ageing population to continue to work actively for longer whilst still addressing some of the chronic health conditions inherited from the early 2000s. Serious concerns remain about the capacity and viability of core public services, in particular chronic healthcare and later-life housing provision given a smaller and aging population. There is increasing demand for people to undertake care responsibilities for families and older relatives. Given fewer young people and smaller school rolls, colleges, universities and businesses are now competing for the youth market. This has led to tug-of-war for public resources, for example, health and care system or a modernised public learning system. The two years of obligatory community or public service provision all younger, indigenous learners (late school, college and university) have to provide if their learning is supported by public funding was resisted at first, but is now seen as a world leader.

B.27 Opportunities and labour shortages continue to prevail in a highly competitive jobs market. Earlier in-migration that addressed the labour gaps in Scotland in the 2000s have however become a deeper societal problem. Whilst many in-migrants remain in Scotland, more leave to follow work globally. The evolving skills and knowledge transfer potential from alternative fuels and renewable energy have proved a significant windfall for Scotland, not only economically, but also in the education and training opportunities for indigenous training and education providers. Home-based and international students and businesses in these disciplines form a significant part of the learning provision available.

Stewardship Society

Overview

B.28 Scotland's progress has been central to European success and in particular the growth of the EU's small country economies. Through the path to 2021, Scotland has been very successful in attracting private sector investment, and has developed an internationally renowned and thriving social economy optimising the input of a strong voluntary sector. Successive government policies and partnerships with key national economic stakeholders have continued to provide a sustainable, genuinely mixed economy with well rewarded private, public and voluntary career opportunities.

Narrative

B.29 Scotland 2021 is a relatively successful economically in regional and international rankings but has had to continuously compete in a extremely competitive world economy. The world economies are only just recovering from the aftermath of a number of 'trade and resource' wars between China and the USA. Scotland has enjoyed many benefits from the emerging alliances of small countries of the EU that resulted from the disenchantment of the widening EU and creeping fragmentation of the concept after Turkey and Israel joined in 2019. The permanent home of the EU Regional Economies Bank is based in Dundee, which in one respect reflects Scotland's growing place in Europe. Its economy is to an extent also held back by having a less highly educated and skilled workforce at most professional and vocational levels due to significant underinvestment and some young population decline in the 2010s. It enjoys a lesser GDP per capita than was promised by the Tiger party before their collapse in 2017, however, the attitude to work-life balance and nurturing of talent across all ages has to an extent moderated any societal fall out.

B.30 Scotland enjoys high quality and accessible public services that have innovated well around effective integration and innovations in service planning and delivery. Government policy has been to intervene in a number of core services, particularly education and personal care services, to address the traumatic experiences of the late 2010s. Government at a local level takes a more active role following the success of voting reforms in the 2007 elections, with local community planning partnerships having a significant role in local governance feeding into regional and national policy debates. Despite early forecasts of 'statism', the three different layers of governance have been seen to work well and there is much higher engagement in the political process. The linkage between government, business and the voluntary sectors, without the need for national partnerships evidenced in Ireland, was positive and supported by the successive coalition administrations.

B.31 There is, as a result of some of the corporate failures in the late 2010s, a stronger legislative and regulatory framework in the workplace, for example, manifesting in more certification and the rigour of licences to practice for a wide range of jobs. Social entrepreneurialism is a significant economic activity supported by vibrant education and training provision in this sector. A number of strategic alliances with what were once known as 'developing countries' proved successful and the knowledge transfer from planning and delivering high quality public services formed another high added value economic contribution.

B.32 Relatively stable economic success matched to positive sustainable development policies is considered by most people as the sensible way for Scotland in 2021, suiting its developing, but only just emerging, cosmopolitan and internationally diverse workforce. There remains the underlying concern, particularly within the business sector, that Scotland's economy continues to be highly sensitive to economic shocks from global conditions. Very few global reach or international businesses have relocated or remain headquartered here due to a higher corporate and personal tax regime than some of Scotland's direct competitors.

B.33 A relatively high level of public investment prevails as part of a significant overall expenditure on learning comparative to the earlier years of the 21st century. The trade-off for more government and business planning in education and training is a better funded learning system. This has emerged primarily from higher levels of corporate investment in learning and training coupled to lifelong learning partnership agreements being refreshed between the individual learner and funding organisations throughout life's ages and stages.

B.34 While participation in lifelong learning remains high in 2021, there has not been any substantial change from the early 21st century. With the focus on skills and learning to satisfy economic demands, personal attainment by individual learners is not the highest priority for public investment. Many learners now choose to invest their own resources in attaining higher qualifications. With an ageing population, the focus of the lifelong learning system has shifted from preparing young people for work, to retraining opportunities and building flexibility and capacity in the adult population. Though this means that much of the adult population is engaged in learning, some less willingly than others, there remain pockets of non-engagement where learners cannot or do not take up publicly-funded learning, but lack the resources to pay for their own preferred learning options. The greater degree of choice (which often translates to self-fund learning) is available only to those from high-income backgrounds or the international learning tourists. Students from low-income backgrounds are likely to be limited to state or employer funded provision.

B.35 Private sector employer and union bodies have had an increasing role in deciding on provision required to meet their needs, including control of some learner funding in vocational and professional training. Both public and private sector require high-skilled workers and funding is targeted to deliver targets in these areas. Public funding is particularly focused on developing core 'employability' skills for all generic to most jobs and providing a common basis for the 2020s economy, implying continuous re-skilling. The re-skilling of existing workers is the primary market for traditional learning providers, those that did not fully embrace the modernisation opportunities and they cater for a predominantly older and the less willing learner groups.

B.36 A national review of learning institutions adopted in 2015 delivered a smaller but wholly integrated number of learning institutions and organisations. Individuals' funding is on the basis of economic or societal requirements. Technological and media advances directed at the learning sector supported this transition, though the public funding and planning mechanisms in place mean that provision cannot always keep pace with the rate of technological progress. A further development has been the removal from the learning lexicon of the 'academic year'; learning provision takes place where and when required.

B.37 Since 2015, there has been a considerable growth in, and strong competition from, private and voluntary sector training providers as well as increasingly higher levels of medium and longer term corporate or 'in-house' training by public and private sector organisations. One impact of this is that non-vocational learning is becoming marginalised, particularly that funded by government or the corporate sector. The voluntary and social entrepreneurship players, however, recognise this aspect in the learning market as a fruitful area. Scotland is maintaining its place as an international centre of excellence for health sector training and learning and has become a world leader in care skills and qualifications with these areas now developed into a growing export market. Whilst Scotland remains an attractive destination for economic migrants, the tight grip on planning for the economy means that entry requirements are strict, and depend on immigrants possessing, or intending to generate, skills that are transferable or are in particular economic or societal demand in Scotland. This implies a continuing reliance on the indigenous population, with the economic and educational contribution from in-migrants being transient and less integrated than hoped.

Planning to Survive

Overview

B.38 Scotland has never quite connected economically despite early promise and puts its faith in planning and directive policies of government to stabilise the economy and elements of societal breakdown. For some, it is a comfort zone country with high dependency on the state; for others a country with restrictions and barriers to creativity and individualism. Scotland in 2021 has major government intervention and regulation in the economy, society and the learning system. It is a safe and secure but risk averse and protectively traditionalist nation.

Narrative

B.39 Scotland 2021 is to a large extent quite uncomfortable with itself, yet it retains the capacity to care for most of its more vulnerable communities. Racism and heightened intolerance of incomers is becoming an unhappy feature, requiring in some areas vigorous response by public order services. Scotland has a drawbridge mentality, "let's keep what we've got", focusing on retaining remaining traditional sectors through state involvement, tax incentives, training levies, regulation, etc, rather than adopting a riskier strategy of developing or attracting new sectors - with the almost sole exception of renewable energy technologies. The public sector has expanded in recent years, partly as a response to a shrinking productive business sector increasingly reliant on public sector contracts, as rising personal taxation supports the public sector. The long term financial picture looks precarious and it is generally understood that Scotland cannot sustain this position.

B.40 The economy is only slightly improved from 2006 as Scotland missed out on most of the opportunities of the knowledge-based economic growth opportunities of the late 2000s. Scotland is predominantly paternalistic and protectionist, risk is not encouraged particularly in publicly funded initiatives, and many professional bodies embrace the litigious society. Government regulation is very strong, couched in terms of protecting the public, with 'licences to practice' and evidence of substantial continuing training required for all public service jobs and much of the private and voluntary sectors' activities. As a result, there are low levels of enterprise, innovation, entrepreneurship and creativity, and new business start-ups are at an all-time low. State support has continued to ensure that no citizen falls through the poverty floor which has resulted in a more equal but, given the economic situation, a poorer and more dependent society. 'Grey power' has resulted in local parochial issues being seen as more important, leading to some tensions between national and local government. There are correspondingly low levels of civic participation at national level, but Scotland in 2021 is still reasonably socially cohesive; pockets of disengagement and civil unrest are emerging though.

B.41 The need for a self-contained energy policy, given continuing international and regional energy and resource imbalances and crises, has resulted in low level but growing investment in sustainable fuel technologies. This has meant over-ruling some local community and business objections. Some economic hope, however, exists in Scotland's European lead in the use of renewables and alternative energies. These sectors are being seen as possibly contributing a higher proportion of tax revenue in future years. This is anticipated to support what is still perceived as reasonable public service provision, especially in nursing care for the elderly and early learning and returning learners sectors.

B.42 Government has, however, had to become significantly more involved in direct intervention, not only in the learning system, with more limited funding than had been anticipated even in the tight budget periods of 2007 to 2014. The principal focus is on national and regional economic development, social and diversity inclusion and affordable housing provision. Government's contribution to supporting learning is therefore very low and focused on key economic priorities. The transport and digital infrastructures laid down in the late 2000s did however assist in a more sustainable settlement for some of the crunch points of Scotland's urban population. Rural Scotland, especially the fringes between the remote and accessible areas, survived earlier threats to it becoming the 'playground' of the urban areas. Despite being initially perceived as the 'green lungs' of city-metro regions in earlier planning, and given a continuing international concern on environmental issues, rural Scotland provides real potential for economic growth from energy resources and the exporting of sustainable development practices. Middle Scotland 'market towns' have developed, going through a period of sustained renaissance, however, this has been at the expense of significant population losses in remote areas, due principally to the difficulty in providing personal public services in these areas.

B.43 Unfortunately, Scotland is becoming a less attractive place to visit, whether for business, education or tourism, with a sense of a backward-looking small country, narrow-minded and even a little mean spirited, often evidenced in the jobs market and education allocation system. Emigration is high, and there is minimal in-migration given a relatively uncomfortable approach to any 'outsiders'. The loss of much of the international training and education markets, both visiting and distance-learning students, to Indian and Australian organisations has added to this creeping parochialism. Many young people after qualifying have left and continue to leave as they are not prepared to pay the higher tax rates to fund high levels of public service provision for an increasingly ageing population. Given the demographics of the working population, jobs exist for most young people. An average retirement age of 72 has only recently been very reluctantly accepted during a vote of confidence in the Scottish Parliament, the issue devolved in 2020. However, a significant resistance remains to continuing in work or returning in the older population.

B.44 Scotland's population accepted some years ago that it will not be one of the promised big economic players. There has however been a gradual return to a deeper sense of civic pride amongst the older population in recognising that volunteerism offers a way out of loneliness and poor mental health. There is paradoxically a greater sense of community and increased contribution of the extended family, as long however as " you are one of us". Out of economic necessity, extended families have returned and are emerging as a central hub of society, making a recognised and valued contribution to caring, health and well-being.

B.45 The expanding element of the ageing population is not engaged in learning in a meaningful way, in spite of considerable funds being currently sought and international partners being cultivated to investigate re-skilling the over-65 age group. This group are now showing signs of better health as prevention and cheaper pharmaceuticals came on stream as a result of governments and NGOs taking on the large pharmaceuticals in the trade rounds in the late 2010s. Sub-Saharan Africa's widespread AIDS pandemic and the global 'flu outbreaks in 2009 and 2018 forced these issues to resolution.

B.46 In spite of the low level of funding for learning and minimal private support, participation in learning is relatively high, especially in skills for identified economic priorities. Modernisation of delivery of learning has continued at an accelerating pace, although opportunities have been missed as learners and teachers failed to embrace it fully and the funding simply does not exist in sufficient volume to invest and take advantage of new technologies. Learning reflects the predicted needs of the economy and is highly influenced by businesses through compulsory levies. Less funded places are available for learners and competition is fierce for popular courses. Some learners are encouraged to take courses that they may not necessarily wish to do because of government's focus on selected industries, resulting in low motivation to learning for some. Fewer international students study in Scotland, but more Scottish students study and work abroad after finishing their courses.

MacTiger

Overview

B.47 The Scottish economy of 2021 is more successful than in 2006 and society is significantly more consumerist in its nature. It enjoys a strong education system focused primarily on the demands of individual learners. Challenges for Scottish 2021 society include dealing with labour shortages in key areas of the public sector, pockets of high social deprivation, a breakdown in earlier traditional community values, rural depopulation and environmental degradation. Scotland has become a less tolerant nation. Given the opportunities that are available to individuals, the nation is generally less inclined to support those "not pulling their weight".

Narrative

B.48 Scotland in 2021 has both embraced the knowledge and communications economy and connected well with globalisation opportunities, particularly in high added-value service sectors and knowledge transfer markets. Generally speaking, learning of whatever sort is encouraged across Scotland as it is recognised that education is in itself inherently worthwhile.

B.49 A vibrant, enterprise culture exists with Scotland playing an important part in Europe whilst well connected with strong international links to the rest of the world too. Many jobs in Scotland are well paid and employment levels are high. There is significant pressure to succeed and wealth accumulation and disposable income are seen as important indicators of success. Scotland has strong niche sectors that compete well in a fast changing world market. The technology sector, including video game design, is a particular strength. Other key sectors for the economy include renewable energy, biotechnology and the creative industries, particularly those nurturing the various developing Scottish cultural media. Many of these sectors attract, and have come to rely on, significant levels of inward investment. Corporate social responsibility remains merely an interesting theoretical concept.

B.50 Whilst being amongst the top tier of small countries in the expanded EU and elsewhere, the societal and environmental impacts of MacTiger are not wholly beneficial. A febrile, and to an extent risky, economic trajectory has led to a level of financial and societal uncertainty not felt since the 1980s. Improved economic performance has generally led to Scots becoming more healthier and living longer, productive lives. But some would say that something of Scotland has been lost, particularly in the lessening of a direct focus on working to achieve equality and in reducing the remaining but quite deep pockets of deprivation, particularly in the seven main cities and throughout remote rural Scotland. Scotland's cities and accessible rural areas have attracted an international elite who recognise the high, but potentially eroding, amenity-value of living and working here, but seem to have less interest in contributing to more than the economic values of the country through taxes, particularly property-based and indirect taxation.

B.51 A highly consumerist culture prevails in the learning system, but sophisticated marketing and individualisation of services have led to informed choices being made across learning provision, including the demands of high activity in lifelong learning by a discerning, if aged, population. There is significant funding available to the learning system in Scotland 2021, with a large market for online learning for professionals. While public funding is substantial, as a percentage of the overall funding for the learning system it has become a significantly lower ratio in the overall figure. Each learner in Scotland has an individual learning account entitling them support to the equivalent level of what was once known as an Honours degree. Beyond this entitlement, individuals and employers are responsible for funding their learning. There is a vibrant and highly competitive market for learning across all ages and to satisfy a diverse range of purposes. There are many private providers offering pre-employment vocational learning as well as work-based programmes. Public funding is however available, but not guaranteed, as a pump-priming resource to all recognised providers of vocational learning. There is strong demand for skills at the historical SCQF level 9 and beyond, but there are many jobs requiring basic and intermediary levels skills too. Participation in learning is higher than at any time in Scotland's history with a high degree of continuous improvement and technological and curricular modernisation feeding this participation.

B.52 Learners are expected, as far as possible, to own their own learning. They are responsible for their choices. Learner support to enable learners to realise opportunities and to make informed choices is wholly integral to the student experience. There is a single European standard for qualifications. It is increasingly common for Scottish school-leavers to combine study with European tours, picking up units of learning in many different countries as they travel as part of the international transferability of their funding entitlement and learning accounts.

B.53 Scotland in 2021 has high levels of immigration and a highly cosmopolitan society, however, some pockets of resentment exist, particularly among those in large conurbations losing out in work opportunities to better qualified in-migrants and due to the nature of a highly flexible internationalised labour force at the top levels of incomes. The country has a large number of older workers remaining in the workforce. There are, however, labour shortages in some industries, particularly in the public sector. This is putting significant strain on the health, care and education sectors which are finding it difficult to compete with other employers. Despite the availability of jobs, there is a small, but intractable, core of Scots not in education, employment or training. Scots have generally high levels of IT skills which is fortunate as almost all government transactions are online.

B.54 Levels of addiction and substance misuse are growing, partly a function of increasing disposable incomes and stress in the workplace, and in some areas pose a threat to both personal health and productivity. A turn around in engagement in civic society is yet awaited and the only interest in voting is to reflect the variations in tax rates as practically the only distinguishing feature between political parties. Scotland has achieved 'best-in-class' status in some public services, helped by financially successful knowledge transfer and innovations. These have been spurred on by strategic alliances across some disciplines in health and allied medical educational institutions. There is however a significant private sector provision of many core public services where, for example, "health is wealth" is perceived as the reality. Public services however have consistently fought to recruit and retain highly qualified and well trained staff given significant disparities between remuneration and development opportunities in both the private and now well funded voluntary sectors.

B.55 Given a focused drive to relative affluence and individual wealth creation, car use in Scotland has increased significantly. Despite improvements in fuel efficiency, this has resulted in an increase in carbon emissions and a deterioration in air quality. Increasingly more Scots are taking more holidays abroad with a significant increase in air travel in and out of the country. Scotland's climate is a little more chaotic, flooding occurs more often and biodiversity is declining significantly. Some of the fears of climate change have been realised but to an extent moderated by Scotland's leadership across the UK nations and in partnership with Scandinavian countries on sustainable development and technological applications arising from renewables technologies.

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