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2. How we approached this work
2.1 All Principals of Scotland's colleges were given the opportunity over the Spring and Summer of 2006 to engage in discussions about the key challenges facing the sector. Scottish Executive officials also met staff and student representatives and a range of other key stakeholders from the education, business, community learning and development and voluntary sectors. Two Open Space events - with an agenda determined by participants - and a discussion with the Chairs of Scotland's colleges were also held to gather a wide range of views.
2.2 A number of major challenges which are expected to have an impact on Scotland's colleges but are largely outwith their direct control were identified during this process. These included: demographic change; terrorism, globalisation, internationalism and the expansion of the EU; climate change and environmental constraints; technological advances; government fiscal and policy approaches; and development of city regions and rural peripherality.
2.3 We asked Malcolm Hutchinson of the consultancy Viable Futures to build on this work and to facilitate the process of developing, and considering the implications of, future possible scenarios which Scotland's colleges might face in 2021. His report describing how we did this is set out in Annex B.
2.4 The four scenarios we developed were based on major change drivers which are highly uncertain, but could have the greatest impact on Scotland's colleges. The scenarios were intended to be plausible, realistic but challenging. They were not intended to predict the future, but to provide different strategic contexts within which the colleges may have to respond. A narrative painting a picture of each of the four scenarios is set out as part of Annex B, but the summaries of each are included here for convenience:
Content, Smart and Enlightened
Scotland in 2021 is fairly similar to Scotland in 2006. In particular there is a similar feel to civic society and the learning market but the effects of 'certainties' such as demographic change and further environmental decay have now made considerable impacts. This is a Scotland which, whilst not amongst the richest nations of the world, has chosen not to continue to chase growth, has a highly educated population and is recognised as one of the most enlightened small countries in the world.
Stewardship Society
Scotland's progress has been central to European success and in particular the growth of the EU's small country economies. Through the path to 2021, Scotland has been very successful in attracting private sector investment, and has developed an internationally renowned and thriving social economy optimising the input of a strong voluntary sector. Successive government policies and partnerships with key national economic stakeholders have continued to provide a sustainable, genuinely mixed economy with well rewarded private, public and voluntary career opportunities.
Planning to Survive
Scotland has never quite connected economically despite early promise and puts its faith in planning and directive policies of government to stabilise the economy and elements of societal breakdown. For some, it is a comfort zone country with high dependency on the state; for others, a country with restrictions and barriers to creativity and individualism. Scotland in 2021 has major government intervention and regulation in the economy, society and the learning system. It is a safe and secure but risk averse and protectively traditionalist nation.
MacTiger
The Scottish economy of 2021 is more successful than in 2006 and society is significantly more consumerist in its nature. It enjoys a strong education system focused primarily on the demands of individual learners. Challenges for Scottish 2021 society include dealing with labour shortages in key areas of the public sector, pockets of high social deprivation, a breakdown in earlier traditional community values, rural depopulation and environmental degradation. Scotland has become a less tolerant nation. Given the opportunities that are available to individuals, the nation is generally less inclined to support those "not pulling their weight".
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