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Discussion
In both the Local Authority survey and the analysis of Scottish SPCA call data, the towns and cities with known urban fox populations (control towns) clearly showed stronger indication of fox presence than the other towns surveyed (towns under investigation). The Local Authority survey data was less clear than the Scottish SPCA data for towns under investigation. However, it is important to take into account the difference in the nature of the two sets of data. The Local Authority survey was more likely to be completed by one person who may or may not have access to relevant data. In some cases, it was established that Local Authorities have no formal records of fox complaints. For this reason it is quite possible that the questionnaire results for some towns could be based on one person's opinion or perception (or that of a small group of people), and may not be a true reflection of the situation on the ground. It is likely that the quality and accuracy of the LA data varies considerably between LAs. The Scottish SPCA data is based on data collected from several hundred members of the public who have been concerned enough about foxes to make a phone call, and we suggest that the data quality is likely to be more consistent across all areas.
In almost all towns and cities there will be foxes that live on the fringes, and that have territories that include at least part of the urban area. In some smaller towns, or those which have relatively wild areas, such as woodland, encroaching into the urban zone, then foxes could regularly be seen in urban areas, but may actually be travelling in from rural areas each night. In these situations, these foxes will almost certainly be controlled in any rabies control exercise that encompasses the surrounding rural area. This is one of the primary reasons for CSL setting the 50,000 human population cut-off on cities for which they calculate fox densities. Towns below this size are likely to have sufficiently few foxes resident, that any fox control activity taking place in the surrounding countryside will lower the overall fox density to a level that cannot sustain the disease. The majority of towns on our list for investigation are below the CSL threshold, some of them significantly so. Many of them are also isolated from other urban areas and hence surrounded by rural areas where foxes would be expected to occur. Thus, it is likely that foxes could be sighted in these towns even if an urban population was not established.
Aberdeen and Dundee are the two main exceptions; both are cities of over 150,000 inhabitants and might be expected to have urban fox populations. However, from both the LA survey and SSPCA reports there is no overwhelming indication of a well established urban fox population in either city. Similarly, Livingston has over 50,000 inhabitants, but again, there are few clear indications of an established fox population residing there. Cumbernauld has almost 50,000 inhabitants, and while the LA report suggested a relatively high number of calls regarding foxes this was not supported by the SSPCA data. There are of course reports from these towns, but there are proportionally far fewer than would be expected if urban foxes were established (comparing the proportion of SSPCA calls per human population with Edinburgh and Glasgow).
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