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CHAPTER THREE CURRENT PATTERNS OF VISITOR TRAVEL BEHAVIOUR WITHIN SCOTLAND

Introduction

3.1 In 2005, it is estimated that Scotland received around 10.5 million visitors from outside Scotland. Just over 76% of the visits originated in the rest of the United Kingdom, with the remainder having an international origin (VisitScotland, 2005a). This chapter seeks to investigate what is known about the travel patterns of visitors to Scotland by identifying relevant literature and secondary data sources and, as far as possible, to use this information to map current patterns of travel behaviour. The process of drawing together available information from a variety of sources also enables limitations of existing data and gaps in knowledge to be identified.

3.2 For the purposes of the analyses presented in this chapter, unless otherwise stated, the term 'domestic visit' refers to a trip to Scotland made by a resident of England, Wales or Northern Ireland and which involves at least one overnight stay. The term 'overseas visit' refers to a trip to Scotland made by a resident of another country, again involving at least one overnight stay.

3.3 This chapter is structured in the following way. Firstly, a framework for the characterisation of visitor travel patterns is presented, key data sources are identified and the quality of the available data is considered in relation to this characterisation. Secondly, recent trends in visits to Scotland and the attributes and purpose of those visiting are explored. Thirdly, a detailed examination of the travel patterns of domestic and overseas visitors is undertaken.

Visitor travel patterns

3.4 The principal characteristics of the daily travel patterns of local users of a transport system is typically described with reference to the following core elements: the start and end points of travel, modes of transport used, time of travel and specific routes chosen. However, whilst drawing on this approach, a more complex descriptive framework is required to characterise the travel patterns of visitors to Scotland. As a minimum aspects of travel to and from Scotland, the ports of entry and departure and the location(s) and number of nights spent at overnight bases must be considered. Travel between the port of entry and the first overnight base, travel between overnight bases (where relevant), travel from the final overnight base to the port of departure and any day trips undertaken to local destinations from these bases must also be considered. More detailed aspects of travel behaviour such as the order in which bases are selected, how day trips to local destinations are combined and how travel to local destinations and between bases are combined might also be examined.

3.5 There are several surveys of visitors to Scotland undertaken either at a UK level or on specific major routes into or within Scotland. It is useful to explore how well these sources of data map on to the descriptive framework outlined above. This will enable the integration of available information from a variety of sources and also the identification in any gaps in knowledge. Before doing so, a brief review of the scope and quality of the existing data sources is undertaken in the following section.

Review of data sources

3.6 A review of available data sources identified several potentially useful surveys undertaken at a national level which focus on domestic and/or overseas visitors to Scotland. National estimates are produced from survey data. The accuracy of these estimates is dependent on the sample sizes used to produce them. However, the sample sizes available for certain population sub-groups may be insufficient to provide accurate estimates which places a limit on the degree to which data can be disaggregated.

United Kingdom Tourism Survey ( UKTS)

3.7 The UKTS is a national consumer survey which measures the characteristics of trips away from home lasting one night or more taken by UK residents. It is jointly sponsored by VisitBritain, VisitScotland, the Wales Tourist Board and the Northern Ireland Tourist Board and began in 1989. From 1989 to 1999 the research methodology employed was face-to-face in-home interviews. Approximately 70,000 respondents were interviewed each year. From 2000 onwards, a random digit telephone interview methodology was adopted based on around 50,000 interviews per annum. However, the 2004 data set is not considered to be truly representative of the UK population because the response rate was found to vary with socio-economic circumstance (Star UK, 2006). From April 2005, a face-to-face interview methodology was adopted with a target annual sample size of 103,000.

3.8 For the purposes of the research undertaken in this report, with the exception of recent trends in domestic tourism (outlined in Paragraph 3.19 below), for which 2005 statistics were used, the 2003 UKTS survey dataset was the most recent reliable dataset available. Visitor estimates using the 2003 UKTS data set are based on a sample size of just over 2200 respondents who reported having made a visit to Scotland in 2003. The principal variables of interest are trip purpose, regional origin and destination(s), mode of travel and length of stay.

National Travel Survey ( NTS)

3.9 The NTS is a series of household surveys designed to provide regular, up-to-date data on personal travel and to monitor changes in travel behaviour over time. It covers the UK mainland, excluding Northern Ireland, the Scottish Islands and Isles of Scilly. The first NTS was commissioned by the Ministry of Transport in 1965/66. Further periodic surveys were carried out in 1972/73, 1975/76, 1978/79 and 1985/86. Since July 1988 the NTS has been carried out as a continuous survey with one third of representative households surveyed in any year. Thus, representative samples of the UK mainland population for the years 1988 to 2004 are obtained by combining the NTS data set in three year periods (e.g. 1989 - 91). Field work was carried out in every month of the year with an annual set sample of over 5000 households. From 2005, the survey has tripled in size covering 15,000 households each year.

3.10 NTS participants are asked to complete a travel diary of all journeys, however small, undertaken in a specified target week. In addition, participants are asked to record "long distance" journeys (defined as journeys greater than 50 miles in length) for the three weeks preceding the target week. In this analysis, long distance journeys made by individuals residing outside Scotland, but with a destination in Scotland, are selected. Two groups can be identified - those who start their long distance journey outside Scotland and those who start their long distance journey inside Scotland. It is important to note that shorter journeys (< 50 miles), such as day trips around Scotland from a fixed holiday base, are not covered in this analysis. However, those undertaking classic hotel based coach or car tours should be identified.

3.11 The analysis presented in this report is based on analysis of the NTS data sets and is structured around four three-year blocks (i.e. 1992 - 1995, 1995 - 1998, 1998 - 2001 and 2001 - 2004). The sample sizes for these four periods are small in comparison with UKTS sample sizes and are given in Table 3.1. Estimates based on NTS are therefore less accurate than estimates based on UKTS. Regional origin, mode choice, purpose and characteristics of travellers are recorded in the NTS for long distance journeys. One important limitation of the NTS is that regional destination within Scotland is only available for the period 1992 - 1995.

Table 3.1 Sample sizes of "long distance" journeys to and within Scotland

Notes to table
Base data: National Travel Survey; 1992 - 2004

International Passenger Survey ( IPS)

3.12 The IPS is a continuous survey carried out by the Office for National Statistics that collects information from passengers as they enter or leave the United Kingdom (National Statistics, 2006a). Travellers passing through passport control are randomly selected for interview at all main air, sea and tunnel ports or routes out of the UK, excluding sea routes to and from the Channel Islands, the land border with the Irish Republic and cruise ships travelling to and from the UK.

3.13 Around 250,000 interviews are carried out per year, representing 0.2% of all UK and overseas travellers as they enter or leave the UK. Of interest in this research study are overseas residents departing the country. Variables of interest include country of origin, port / route of departure and regions visited within the United Kingdom. Sample size reflects the flow of passengers passing through passport control at a specific port / route. Those ports / routes with passenger flows below certain minimum thresholds are generally excluded from the survey. The effect of this design is that sampling is concentrated at the main UK airports (Heathrow, Gatwick and Manchester) and on certain principal sea routes. 'Residual' airports, using the terminology of the IPS, such as Glasgow and Edinburgh, have much smaller sample sizes. In 2004, only around 460 interviews of overseas visitors departing by air were carried out at Glasgow and Edinburgh airports out of a total sample of about 46,000 interviews. Other Scottish airports were excluded from the survey altogether in 2004. However, since 2005, Prestwick airport has been included in the IPS in recognition of the fivefold increase in flow to nearly one and a half million passengers between 2001 and 2005 (National Statistics, 2006b).

3.14 The survey data are weighted to produce national estimates which are in line with known international passenger flows.

Civil Aviation Authority Survey ( CAAS)

3.15 The CAAS is conducted at UK airports (Civil Aviation Authority, 2006). Departing air passengers are randomly selected for interview. Although similar in respect of the areas covered in the survey, a crucial distinction between CAAS and IPS is that both domestic and international departures are included in the former survey. Thus, domestic visitors to Scotland and departing overseas visitors travelling to another UK airport are surveyed in addition to overseas visitors on direct international flights. Five Scottish airports - Edinburgh, Glasgow, Aberdeen, Prestwick and Inverness - are included in the CAAS data set collected in 2005.

3.16 Nearly 13,000 completed interviews of domestic visitors to Scotland and over 8,300 overseas visitors to Scotland are included in the 2005 survey, and, of the latter figure, around 5,500 respondents were departing on international flights. The CAAS includes approximately 3,400 completed interviews of overseas visitors on international flights from Glasgow and Edinburgh airports which compares favourably with the sample size of the same surveyed population in the IPS.

Other sources of data

3.17 Three other data sets were used to explore the travel patterns of visitors to Scotland. These surveys provide some additional information to those carried out at a national level described above. Firstly, surveys of visitors using the Rosyth to Zeebrugge Superfast Ferry service were undertaken in 2002 and 2003 by VisitScotland and a group of Area Tourist Boards which aimed to inter alia build a profile of foreign leisure visitors coming to Scotland via the ferry link and find out about the characteristics of their trip (George Street Research Limited, 2003). A total of 304 self-completion surveys were completed in 2002 and 340 in 2003. Secondly, ticket sales data was obtained from First Scotrail on destination of passengers from Prestwick airport railway station. Finally, a report commissioned by Greater Glasgow and Clyde Valley Area Tourist Board, which presents the results of a survey of visitors to the Board area, was obtained ( TNS, 2004). A total of 1,350 interviews with overnight visitors and day-trippers (excluding respondents living in Greater Glasgow and Clyde Valley area) were undertaken over the period June 2003 to June 2004.

Scope of reviewed data sets

3.18 Table 3.2 summarises the range of data available in accordance with key elements of the descriptive framework outlined in Paragraph 3.4 above. It can be seen that the national surveys of domestic and overseas visitors provide reliable data on the origin of visitors to Scotland, the mode of transport used to travel to Scotland and regions visited within Scotland. Other aspects of travel within Scotland, such as mode(s) of travel used, route choice and the order in which overnight stays are undertaken, are not covered by these surveys with the exception of the NTS which records long distance travel within Scotland for UK residents from outside Scotland and CAAS and IPS which record mode of travel to port/route of departure. Data from the Rosyth to Zeebrugge Superfast Ferry supplements leisure data available in the IPS which is skewed towards the busy sea routes between England and the Continent. Data from First Scotrail on destinations travelled to from Prestwick Airport adds to the picture which can be developed from CAAS, although it should be noted that this is of limited value since data encompasses all travellers from the airport i.e. domestic (including Scottish) and overseas residents. The results of the Greater Glasgow and Clyde Valley Visitor Survey shed some light on the travel behaviour of visitors and day-trippers to the area.

Table 3.2 Information available from national surveys and surveys undertaken at major ports/routes of entry

Recent trends and principal characteristics of visitors

3.19 Figures 3.1 and 3.2 show trends for domestic and overseas visits to and nights spent in Scotland respectively. It should be noted that the estimates for domestic visitors in both these figures includes visits made by all UK residents including those resident in Scotland. It should also be noted that due to changes made in the UKTS and IPS methodologies (outlined above in Paragraphs 3.7 and 3.13 respectively), statistics for 2005 are not directly comparable with previous years. Table 3.3 distinguishes between visits to Scotland from the constituent parts of the UK in 2005. It can be seen that just under half the domestic visitors originate from within Scotland itself.

Figure 3.1 Trends in UK and overseas visits to Scotland (1995 - 2005)

Source: VisitScotland (2006a) (2006b)
Base data: Domestic visits (all UK visitors including Scottish residents), UKTS 1995 - 2005; Overseas visits, IPS 1995 - 2005

Figure 3.2 Trends in nights spent in Scotland for UK residents and overseas visitors (1995 - 2005)

Source: VisitScotland (2006a) (2006b)
Base data: Domestic visits (all UK visitors including Scottish residents), UKTS 1995 - 2005; Overseas visits, IPS 1995 - 2005

Table 3.3 Visits to Scotland by UK residents (2005)

Notes to table
Source: VisitScotland (2006c)
Base data: UKTS 2005

3.20 With reference to Figure 3.1, there is an apparent decline in domestic visits to Scotland. This may be explained, at least partly, by changes in the survey methodology employed by UKTS. In comparison, analysis of the NTS shows an increase in the number of long distance trips to Scotland over the period 1992-95 to 2001-04 from 7.46 million to 9.02 million. Some caution must be employed in comparing the UKTS and NTS: the surveyed populations are different in the two data sets, the UKTS measures overnight stays whilst the NTS measures long distance trips (which may or may not include an overnight stay) and, most pertinently, the NTS estimates are based on fairly small sample sizes.

3.21 Figure 3.1 shows a rise in the number of overseas visits from 2003 and Figure 3.2 shows a sharp increase in the number of nights spent in Scotland in 2005 by overseas visitors. However, the fivefold increase in passenger traffic at Prestwick airport between 2000 and 2004 is not reflected in the statistics used in both these figures (see Paragraph 3.13). Consequently, the actual rise in overseas visits and nights spent in Scotland would appear to have commenced at an earlier stage, probably around 2000, and increased at a significant but more gradual rate than reflected in Figures 3.1 and 3.2.

Domestic visits

3.22 Figures 3.3 to 3.5 illustrate the profile of domestic visitors to Scotland by purpose, age and by socio-economic circumstance respectively. It can be seen that the majority of domestic visits to Scotland take place for holiday purposes, whilst visiting friends and relatives and business form equal and significant proportions. The age profile of visitors is fairly evenly distributed, whilst, as might be expected, socio-economic classes AB and C1 are more likely to visit Scotland than socio-economic classes C2 and D.

Figure 3.3 Purpose of domestic visits to Scotland (2003)

Source: VisitScotland (2006a)
Base data: UKTS 2003 excluding Scottish residents

Figure 3.4 Age profile of domestic visitors to Scotland (2003)

Source: VisitScotland (2006a)
Base data: UKTS 2003 excluding Scottish residents

Figure 3.5 Socio-economic class of domestic visitors to Scotland (2003)

Source: VisitScotland (2006a)
Base data: UKTS 2003 excluding Scottish residents

Overseas visits

3.23 In 2004, according to the IPS, over 50% of the total number of overseas visits came from only five countries - United States of America, Germany, Australia, Canada and France. Furthermore, there were over half a million visits from North America alone and over 400,000 visits came from the European Union (VisitScotland, 2006b) ³. Figure 3.6 shows the purpose of visit for the top five countries. The USA is clearly the major source of overseas visitors to Scotland. Just over half of the visitors from USA come to Scotland on holiday and there is also a sizeable proportion who visited friends and relatives. The importance of family ties between Scotland and Canada is also apparent from this data with over 50% of the visits from Canada being for VFR purposes. Given the relative proximity of France and Germany to Scotland in comparison with the other countries, it is not surprising that there are a higher proportion of business visits to Scotland than for USA, Canada and Australia.

Figure 3.6 Overseas visits by purpose and country of origin (2004)

Source: VisitScotland (2006b)
Base data: IPS 2004

3.24 Figure 3.7 illustrates that the age profile of overseas visitors to Scotland is similar to that of domestic visitors. Not surprisingly visiting for the purpose of business is a significant proportion of all visits in the age categories 25 - 54 years.

Figure 3.7 Overseas visits by age and purpose (2004)

Source: VisitScotland (2006b)
Base data: IPS 2004

Mode of arrival in Scotland

Domestic Visitors

3.25 The UKTS allows the mode of arrival in Scotland to be disaggregated by UK region of origin. Overall, around 54% of visitors from the UK excluding Scotland arrive by car, 23% arrive by air and 11% arrive by train (VisitScotland, 2006a). The remaining visitors arrive by bus (either a bus service or an organised coach trip). Figure 3.8 shows an analysis of this data broken down by region. Broadly speaking, there is an inverse relationship between the percentage of visitors travelling to Scotland by car and the distance of the regional origin from Scotland. Thus, visitors from the North and North West of England and Yorkshire and Humberside are more likely to travel by car than visitors from the south of England and Wales. In contrast, travel by air forms the largest modal share for those resident in London, the South East and the South West. Travel to Scotland by train from London constitutes a modal share of 23%.

3.26 Figure 3.9 shows the mode of arrival disaggregated by purpose of visit for all UK residents' trips to Scotland. Although the car is the dominant mode for each purpose, it is interesting to note that the percentage of those leisure visitors travelling by air increases as holiday duration decreases. Also, travel by air also constitutes a relatively significant modal share for business/work travel reflecting, at least in part, the short duration of many business trips.

Figure 3.8 Domestic visitors' region of origin by arrival mode (2003)

Source: VisitScotland (2006a)
Base data: UKTS 2003 excluding Scottish residents

Figure 3.9 Domestic visitors' purpose by arrival mode (2003)

Source: VisitScotland (2006a)
Base data: UKTS 2003 excluding Scottish residents

Overseas visitors

3.27 The IPS estimates that the vast majority of overseas visitors to Scotland arrive in the UK by air - 82% in 2004 (VisitScotland, 2006b). Around 15% of overseas visitors arrive by sea and the Channel Tunnel only accounts for about 3% of overseas visitors. Figures 3.10 shows mode of arrival to the UK for the five most common countries of origin. Around 30% of residents in France and Germany who visit Scotland enter the UK by sea and around 10% of French residents who visit Scotland use the Channel Tunnel. ⁴ It is notable that over 20% of Australians use either a sea route or the Channel Tunnel when visiting Scotland. Figure 3.11 shows mode of arrival by purpose. Travel by air dominates each visit purpose, although travel by sea for holidays constitutes a modal share of around 22%. Statistics are not available for the proportion of leisure visitors travelling by sea to Scotland with a car and by foot.

Figure 3.10 Mode of arrival in UK of overseas visitors by country of origin (2004)

Source: VisitScotland (2006b)
Base data: IPS 2004

Figure 3.11 Mode of arrival in UK of overseas visitors by purpose (2004)

Notes to figure
VFR: Visiting Friends and Relatives
Source: VisitScotland (2006b)
Base data: IPS 2004

Destinations visited in Scotland

Domestic visitors

3.28 Table 3.4 shows estimates produced from the NTS of the origins and destinations of domestic trips to Scotland in the period 1992-95. Only three origins and destinations were elaborated for this analysis because of the small sample sizes available in the NTS. It can be seen that over half the trips commenced in the North of England, with around half of these trips having a destination in the East of Scotland. Overall consistently fewer trips finished in the North of Scotland than in the East or West of Scotland.

Table 3.4 Destinations of English and Welsh residents' trips to Scotland (1992 - 95)

Notes to table
Eastern region includes Borders and Lothian, Western region includes Strathclyde and Dumfries and Galloway whilst the Northern region includes all other parts of Scotland.
Base data: NTS 1992-95

3.29 Table 3.5 shows destinations visited in Scotland by domestic visitors from outside Scotland in 2003. It can be seen that Edinburgh and Lothian is the most popular destination visited in Scotland followed by Greater Glasgow and Clyde Valley. The attraction of the Highlands and Argyll, Loch Lomond, Stirling and the Trossachs as destinations is also evident in these figures.

3.30 As discussed in Paragraph 3.25 above, 23% of domestic visits to Scotland were undertaken by air. An analysis of regional destinations visited in Scotland for domestic visitors departing by air was undertaken using CAAS data set. The results of this analysis show that just over 3.5 million domestic visits were made to Scotland by air and the two most popular destinations were Edinburgh and the Lothians and Glasgow and Clyde Valley regions. Moreover, the proportions of visits to these two regions, expressed as a percentage of the total visits to Scotland, were 33% and 25% respectively ( cf. Table 3.5 figures for domestic visitors arriving by all modes). This suggests that domestic visitors travelling by air have a higher propensity to visit the urbanised areas of Edinburgh and Glasgow than domestic visitors travelling to Scotland by other modes.

Table 3.5 Destinations visited in Scotland by domestic visitors (2003)

Notes to table
Figures do not add up to 100% because a single visit to Scotland may encompass a visit to more than one region of Scotland
GGCV: Greater Glasgow and Clyde Valley; ALLST: Argyll, Loch Lomond, Stirling and the Trossachs
Source: VisitScotland (2006a), Base data: UKTS 2003 excluding Scottish residents

3.31 Two indices were constructed to represent the mobility of domestic visitors within Scotland and the degree of dispersal of domestic visitors around Scotland from the region in which the departure airport is located. The mobility index is based on the fact that a single visit to Scotland may encompass a visit to more than one region of Scotland. This index sums the total number of visits to each regional destination within Scotland and divides this figure by the total number of visits to Scotland (Equation 3.1). The minimum value of the mobility index is one. The higher the value of the mobility index is above one, the greater the mobility around Scotland. The dispersal index seeks to capture the extent to which domestic visitors remained within the region of the departure airport during their visit to Scotland. This index divides the total number of nights spent in the region of the departure airport by the total number of nights spent in all other regions of Scotland. (Equation 3.2). The minimum value of the dispersal index in zero. Higher values of the dispersal index indicate a lower degree of dispersal from the departure airport.

Equation 3.1

Equation 3.2

3.32 Table 3.6 shows the mobility and dispersal indices for visitors using each of the Scottish airports, calculated from the CAAS dataset. It can be seen from the mobility indices that domestic visitors departing from Glasgow airport exhibit the highest degree of mobility around Scotland, followed by Edinburgh airport and then Prestwick airport. With regard to the dispersal indices, it can be seen that visitors using Prestwick airport exhibit a high degree of dispersal from the region in which Prestwick airport is located, followed by Glasgow airport and then Edinburgh airport. It is clear from both indices that Inverness and Aberdeen airports cater principally for their respective local catchment areas. Table A1.1 of Annex 1 to this report shows visitor flows to regional destinations in Scotland, disaggregated by airport of departure.

Figure 3.12 Regional destination of visitors to Scotland (air departures) (2005)

Source: VisitScotland (2006d)
Base data: CAAS 2005

Table 3.6 Degree of mobility and dispersal of domestic visitors (air departures) (2005)

Notes to table
Source: VisitScotland (2006d), Base data: CAAS 2005

Overseas visitors

3.33 Table 3.7 shows the regional destinations visited in Scotland by overseas visitors estimated from the IPS 2004 data set. The importance of Heathrow airport as a gateway to Scotland is revealed in this table - over one quarter of all overseas visitors pass through Heathrow according to these figures. Glasgow and Edinburgh airports and Sea and Tunnel ports are also important gateways. Edinburgh City is the most significant attractor of overseas visitors to Scotland by some distance, followed by Glasgow and then the Highlands and Islands.

3.34 Figure 3.12 maps the total number of visits to regional destinations in Scotland for all purposes for those overseas visitors travelling by air from Scottish airports derived from the 2005 CAAS. Broadly speaking, these results confirm the distribution of visits to Scottish regions estimated by the IPS 2004. The size of the CAAS dataset allows estimates of visits to regional destinations for different purposes to be estimated with an acceptable degree of accuracy. Around 40% of the total leisure visits to Scotland involve a visit to Edinburgh and the Lothians.

3.35 Mobility indices were calculated from the CAAS for overseas visitors using each of the Scottish airports (see Table 3.8). As might be expected, leisure visitors display a higher degree of mobility than the mobility of all visitors considered together. ⁵ Furthermore, it can be seen that, typically, visitors using Prestwick airport visit more regions of Scotland than those using any other airport. Tables A1.2 and A1.3 of Annex 1 to this report show overseas visitor flows to regional destinations in Scotland, disaggregated by airport of departure.

3.36 Table 3.8 also shows dispersal indices for each Scottish airport. It can be seen that visitors using Prestwick airport exhibit a higher degree of dispersal from the region in which the airport is located than all the other airports. ⁶ To place these figures in context, according to CAAS, of the estimated 7.5 million nights spent in Scotland by overseas leisure visitors using Edinburgh airport, 4.1 million nights were spent in Edinburgh and the Lothians. In contrast, only 1.6 million of the estimated 6.8 million nights were spent locally by those using Prestwick airport.

Table 3.7 Destinations visited in Scotland by overseas visitors by port/route of departure (2004)

Notes to table
Figures do not add up to 100% because a single visit to Scotland may encompass a visit to more than one region of Scotland
ALLST: Argyll, Loch Lomond, Stirling and the Trossachs
Figures for Edinburgh and Glasgow cities are shown separately and are also incorporated into Edinburgh and Lothian and Greater Glasgow and Clyde Valley figures respectively
Source: VisitScotland (2006b)
Base data: IPS 2004

Table 3.8 Degree of mobility and dispersal of overseas visitors (air departures) (2005)

Notes to table
Source: VisitScotland (2006d), Base data: CAAS 2005

Destinations of rail passengers from Prestwick airport

3.37 Data was obtained from FirstScotrail on the destinations of passengers travelling by rail from Prestwick airport. It should be noted that this data includes both those resident in Scotland returning home and visitors to Scotland, so it is difficult to form any strong conclusions from this data with regard to visitors' travel patterns. Figure 3.13 shows a map of the destinations of passengers from Prestwick airport in the period April 2004 to March 2005. It shows that the greatest number of people travel to the cities of Edinburgh and Glasgow.

Destinations of visitors using Rosyth to Zeebrugge Superfast Ferry

3.38 The Superfast Ferry service between Rosyth and Zeebrugge was launched in May 2002. With reference to Figure 3.14, it can be seen that the Highlands is the area most visited by survey respondents, followed by Argyll, Isles, Loch Lomond and the Trossachs and Edinburgh and the Lothians. A high degree of mobility within Scotland by users of this service is apparent, who are predominantly car users as discussed in Paragraph 3.42 below. Figure 3.15 shows the locations of first and last stops and stays. For respondents in 2003, significant proportions travelled to Edinburgh and the West Highlands for their first overnight stay. A higher proportion of respondents chose to stay overnight in Edinburgh on the last night of their stay than on their first night in both 2002 and 2003.

Figure 3.13 Destinations of passengers from Prestwick Airport

Notes to table
Source: First Scotrail (2006), Base data: April 2004 to March 2005

Figure 3.14 Areas of Scotland visited by overseas leisure users of Rosyth to Zeebrugge Superfast Ferry

Source: George Street Research (2003)

Figure 3.15 Locations of first and last stops and stays by leisure users of Rosyth to Zeebrugge Superfast Ferry

Source: George Street Research (2003)

Travel mode choice within Scotland

3.39 The analysis of information available from the national entry and exit surveys shows that, with the exception of areas visited, information on travel mode choice within Scotland is confined largely to the NTS. The major limitation of using the NTS is that sample sizes for three year periods are of the order of two hundred and thus rather small to produce accurate estimates. CAAS has information on mode of travel to the airport of departure, although it is not clear what inferences can be drawn between mode choice to airport and mode choice for other travel within Scotland.

3.40 Table 3.9 shows the estimated number of long distance trips (> 50 miles) undertaken from a base inside Scotland for domestic visitors to Scotland for the periods 1992-95 to 2001-04. It is clear from Table 3.10 that car is the principal mode used by this group of visitors. It would also appear that there has been a reduction in the number of long distance trips, although it should be noted that these figures are based on small sample sizes. One hypothesis is that this reduction in long distance trips was the result of a decline in the tour bus market. However, the evidence presented in Table 3.10 does not support this hypothesis which shows mode share fairly static across the time period considered.

Table 3.9 Long distance trips from bases within Scotland

Notes to table
Base data: NTS 1992 - 2004

Table 3.10 Percentage mode share for long distance trips within Scotland

Notes to table
Base data: NTS 1992 - 2004

3.41 Figures 3.16 to 3.19 show the final mode of travel used by departing overseas visitors to reach Aberdeen, Edinburgh, Glasgow and Prestwick airports respectively. The proportion of passengers travelling by private transport - that is, hire car or car drop-off - is fairly consistent across these airports (between 34% and 44%). Far fewer visitors choose a taxi or minicab to travel to Prestwick airport than elsewhere, and the popularity of using the train to travel to Prestwick is clearly demonstrated. Glasgow and Edinburgh airports, which do not enjoy rail links at present, have smaller proportions using public transport (18% and 33% respectively) than Prestwick airport (43%).

3.42 Table 3.11 shows the travel mode of overseas leisure visitors to Scotland using the Rosyth to Zeebrugge Superfast Ferry service. Not surprisingly, nearly all visitors used a car whilst in Scotland. It is worth noting that significant percentages also report using other modes. Train and bus modes were used by just under 10% of visitors and the popularity of visiting the islands of Scotland is evidenced by the large proportion of visitors using ferry / boat / yacht.

Table 3.11 Overseas leasure visitors' travel mode in Scotland: Superfast Ferry

Notes to table
Source: George Street Research (2003)

Figure 3.16 Final mode of travel to Aberdeen airport (overseas visitors) (2005)

Source: VisitScotland (2006d), Base data: CAAS 2005

Figure 3.17 Final mode of travel to Edinburgh airport (overseas visitors) (2005)

Source: VisitScotland (2006d), Base data: CAAS 2005

Figure 3.18 Final mode of travel to Glasgow airport (overseas visitors) (2005)

Source: VisitScotland (2006d), Base data: CAAS 2005

Figure 3.19 Final mode of travel to Prestwick airport (overseas visitors) (2005)

Source: VisitScotland (2006d), Base data: CAAS 2005

Greater Glasgow and Clyde Valley Visitor Survey 2003-04 ( TNS, 2004)

3.43 The above research encompassed all visitors and day-trippers to Greater Glasgow and Clyde Valley area. Those respondents resident in Scotland (but outside the study area itself) comprised 65% of respondents and fall outside the scope of the current study (see Figure 3.20). 17% of respondents came from the rest of the UK and 12% of respondents were overseas visitors. Figure 3.21 shows transport mode used to travel to the area and transport mode used within the area by respondents. Not surprisingly, private car is used less to travel to the centre of Glasgow than to the rest of the area given the attractiveness of public transport options to the city of Glasgow relative to the car. Furthermore, the importance of walking as a mode of transport within Glasgow comes out strongly in these results. It is, however, impossible to draw any firm conclusions from the reported results about the travel behaviour of visitors to Scotland to and within the study area given the large number of Scottish respondents within the sample.

Figure 3.20 Origin of visitors to Greater Glasgow and Clyde Valley

Source: TNS (2004), Base data: All respondents

Figure 3.21 Transport used to and within Greater Glasgow and Clyde Valley

Source: TNS (2004), Base data:: All respondents

Chapter summary and conclusions

3.44 This chapter has examined a number of surveys and studies conducted at a national level or on specific routes into or within Scotland in order to explore what they tell us about patterns of travel behaviour of visitors to Scotland and to enable limitations in existing data and gaps in knowledge to be identified. A framework is presented which reviews the scope and quality of these data sets. It is clear that, whilst a great deal of reliable information is available on the origins and basic socio-economic characteristics of domestic and overseas visitors, port of entry (in relation to overseas visitors), mode of travel to Scotland or the UK and visit purpose and length, little is known about the travel patterns of visitors within Scotland from these sources.

3.45 The data sets reviewed in this chapter reveal that the majority of domestic visitors arrive in Scotland by car, although the proportion of those travelling by air and, to a lesser extent, by train, increases for those travelling from more remote origins in the UK. Air travel is the predominant mode of travel to the UK for overseas visitors to Scotland. Less than one fifth of overseas visitors to Scotland arrive in the UK using sea ports and the Channel Tunnel.

3.46 There is only limited data on mode of travel within Scotland. It is generally assumed that those arriving by car (domestic and overseas) will use their car within Scotland. This is no doubt true, but it is worth noting that a significant proportion of car users also report using some other form of transport during their stay in Scotland, as evidenced by the Rosyth to Zeebrugge Superfast Ferry study which found that 33% of respondents used a ferry or boat and 8% used the train and the Greater Glasgow and Clyde Valley Visitor Survey which showed a smaller number of respondents used a car during their visit to the study area in comparison with the number of respondents who used a car to travel to the area.

3.47 A large percentage of overseas visitors choose public transport to travel to the departure airport - 40% in the case of Prestwick airport which has its own dedicated railway station). This clearly demonstrates the important role played by the public transport system for this particular journey. Whether or not it is indicative of a more widespread use of public transport by overseas visitors during their stay in Scotland is not known.

3.48 There is evidence of a change in the visitor market having occurred in recent years with a rise in the number of overseas visitors and the time they spend in Scotland, accompanied, possibly, by a reduction in the size of the domestic market. This change has no doubt been driven, to a large extent, by the availability of low cost flights within Europe. The impact this may have on the travel behaviour of visitors in Scotland is worthy of consideration. Most obviously, this may result in an increase in the number of overseas visitors who do not, by and large, arrive with their own means of transportation and places more importance on the quality of transport service provision within Scotland. The scope and limitations of transport provision and issues relating to visitor experience of the transport system are considered in Chapters 4 and 5 respectively of this report.

3.49 Edinburgh and the Lothians is the most popular destination within Scotland followed by Greater Glasgow and the Clyde Valley and then the Highlands and Skye for both domestic and overseas visitors. Domestic and overseas visitors using Prestwick airport exhibit higher degrees of mobility and dispersal than visitors using other airports. Further analysis of the origin, socio-economic characteristics and trip purpose of visitors may offer some explanation of this phenomenon.

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