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CHAPTER TWO LITERATURE REVIEW

Introduction

2.1 The social disruption caused by floods can seriously undermine the quality of life of individuals and impact on the fabric of affected communities (Gordon, 2004). As well as the physical and health dangers of flood waters, the psychological impact of the emergency and aftermath causes longer term effects that may be exacerbated by stresses such as having to move out of the home, cleaning up, negotiating with insurers and getting damage repaired and goods replaced ( RPA, 2005). Even when the 'recovery' phase is over, there may be difficulties caused by living with the ongoing risk, obtaining and paying for insurance and the effect on house prices and community cohesion.

2.2 The economic cost of flooding in Scotland is estimated to average £31.5 million per year from inland flooding and £19.1 million from coastal flooding (Werritty with Chatterton, 2004). These broad-brush estimates focus on direct costs and say little about the social impacts of flooding in Scotland ( JBA, 2005). Media coverage, while often dramatic, is usually short lived and limited to 'rescue' situations and anecdotes of hardship. The people featured then disappear into the background and have to pick up the pieces out of the public view.

2.3 Over 170,000 residential and commercial properties in Scotland, some 10-12% of the total, are thought to be at risk of flooding at present (Werritty with Chatterton, 2004). However, a much larger group will be at risk in the future with climate change likely to result in higher winter rainfall (especially in the west), more intense summer storms and rising sea levels (Baxter et al., 2001; Hulme et al., 2002; Milly et al., 2002; Werritty et al., 2002). Further factors that will increase future flood risk include legacies of drainage systems that have inadequate capacity, poor building construction techniques and flood defences adapted to a former hydrological regime (Price and McKenna, 2003; Evans et al., 2004). These factors combine with the planning 'inertia' of homes and businesses already located on floodplains, low-lying coastal zones and urban areas at risk of flooding.

2.4 This literature review collates information from a range of sources, mainly academic journal articles, government and consultants' reports, media reports and industrial data sources. The objective is to summarise the current state of knowledge about the impacts of flooding on individuals and communities, the impacts of living with flood risk, and opinions on the best way to manage flood risk.

The impacts of flooding

Flood-related deaths

2.5 Deaths directly attributable to the physical impact of floods are relatively rare in the UK, although many more are documented in Europe, where floods have been both deeper and faster-flowing (Rosenthal et al., 1998; Rosenthal and Bezuyen, 2000). The most commonly affected groups are those mobile at the time of the flood, who encounter floodwaters and associated storm conditions (Jonkman and Kelman, 2005; DEFRA, 2006). Bye and Horner (1998) document five deaths from the 1998 floods in England and Wales. In Scotland, the January 2005 storm and flooding led to five deaths in the Outer Hebrides, and three lives were lost during the severe floods that occurred in northern England. ¹

2.6 Limited information is available on indirect mortality from floods, for example, due to the shock of the event exacerbating pre-existing health conditions such as heart disease and strokes, particularly among the elderly. But Ohl and Tapsell (2000) observe that such deaths are closely related to the prevailing socioeconomic and existing health conditions of the community. Increases in population mortality rates of 50% were noted in Bristol following the 1968 floods, in a controlled study (Bennet, 1970), and a similar proportionate increase was noted on Canvey Island following the 1953 storm surge (Baxter et al., 2001). There is also evidence of an effect on suicide risk (see para 2.11 below). These deaths represent a substantial social impact from floods, but one that is very difficult to quantify owing to the lack of recent longitudinal studies.

Health

2.7 Flooding impacts directly on both physical and psychological health, with a strong interaction between the two. The most extensive recent study, global in scope, is the Tyndall Centre's Floods health and climate change: a strategic review (Few et al., 2004; summarised in Ahern et al., 2005). In this work, which includes studies in England, Australia and the USA, the health impacts of flooding are closely related to age and pre-existing health ( RPA, 2005).

2.8 Physical health impacts of floods include shock, gastrointestinal illnesses (particularly if flood waters were contaminated with sewage) and respiratory illnesses (Hajat et al., 2003). Although few incidents have been reported in the UK in recent years, there is evidence of gastrointestinal effects after the severe flooding in the Midlands in 1998 (Ohl and Tapsell 2000). Reacher et al. (2004) also noted an increase in self-reported gastroenteritis and respiratory complaints following the 2000 floods in Lewes, England. Vector and rodent-borne diseases have not been reported for recent floods in the UK.

2.9 According to the World Health Organisation (2001), psychological health impacts, although well documented in the literature, have yet to be fully addressed in terms of disaster preparedness or service delivery. But impacts that have been recorded include acute stress, clinical depression and anxiety, as well as post-traumatic stress disorder ( PTSD). A number of reports have shown that these impacts are made worse by the scale of the flood, the time taken to return to normal, the presence of contaminants, evacuation, and ineffectiveness of other actions and help received (Green et al., 1985a,b; Tapsell and Tunstall, 2000, 2006; Tapsell et al., 2002; Adeola, 2003; Galea et al., 2005; RPA, 2005). Victims of the 1997 floods in California showed evidence of acute stress, with both short and long term reactions (Waelde et al., 1998; 2001). Increases in stress and depression have been observed following various floods in the UK (Bennet, 1970; Green et al., 1985b; Tapsell et al., 2002; Reacher et al., 2004). These can last for years (Tapsell and Wilson, 2003), and although the effect may diminish with time, recurrence can occur in response to triggers, such as anniversaries (Echterling, 1987). Psychological health is strongly mediated by support structures and interventions have the potential to reduce the mental health impact if timely and comprehensive ( WHO, 2003). However, these structures may be poor to nonexistent where the flood is unexpected (Tapsell and Tunstall, 2000).

2.10 Other studies focused on flooding in developed nations have investigated the extent of impacts on psychological health across social groups. They show that the impacts are differentiated, and tend to be higher among more 'socially vulnerable' individuals. In Australia, Abrahams et al. (1976) found an increase in depression in both men and women following the 1974 Brisbane floods. In a follow-up study, Price (1978) investigated the age-related effects of the same floods, finding that those between 35 and 75 years of age were most affected. Women showed greater symptoms, but this gender difference disappeared at over 65 years of age. In the USA, Melick (1978) and Logue et al. (1981) found no significant mental health effects in working class males three years after a flood resulting from tropical storm Agnes in Pennsylvania, 1972. However, the apparent lack of impact may have been due to a long time lapse after the event. Phifer et al. (1988), investigating 55-74 year olds, found an inverse relationship between health impact (depression and anxiety) and socioeconomic status. Greater impacts were seen in those who had a previous history of depression.

2.11 There is also evidence that flooding, via increased depression, leads to greater suicide risk. Fifty such suicides were documented in Poland by the International Federation of the Red Cross/ Red Crescent Societies as 'likely to have been caused' by the widespread River Oder flooding in 1997 ( IFRC, 1998). Data on suicide links to flood impacts are lacking in the UK, although 13 out of 1510 respondents in the RPA (2005) survey (see Box 1) reported having 'had thoughts' of suicide. Cognitive psychological impacts of floods may also occur. Thus those who have been flooded in the past may believe they are at immediate risk when they are not, and consequently experience anxiety more often than before the flood, sometimes with persistent effects (Beck et al., 1985). There may also be ripple effects and knock-on impacts of the disaster on friends, family and those involved in the emergency (Eyre, 2004). The 'anniversary' effect, providing unwanted reminders each year after the event, has also been noted (Echterling and Hoschar, 1987).

2.12 Children may also be affected psychologically, although the severity is mediated by the degree of support from their family structure. Green et al. (1985a) document psychological effects specific to this group, including symptoms of PTSD and behavioural difficulties several months after the flood (an effect also found in Scotland by Fordham and Ketteridge, 1995).

Intangible losses and health

2.13 A study by RPA (2005) in England and Wales showed that damage to and loss of memorabilia and irreplaceable items was ranked as a major impact by respondents. Although ranked below the effort of getting a house back to normal, having to leave home, and anxiety about future flooding, the loss and damage of memorabilia was ranked above health impacts. Financial hardship after a flood can also be devastating and has strong links to psychological health (Green et al., 1985b).

Community and housing impacts

2.14 Flooding impacts on communities are complex and varied. There is some evidence that, in the aftermath of a flood, cohesion can increase with 'everyone pulling together' (termed 'social fusion' by Gordon, 2004), but much of this evidence is anecdotal. Instead the flood may eventually act as a divisive influence on the community due to its impact on certain groups. This arises from the perception (real or imagined) that particular groups are favoured by emergency and longer term assistance even though these groups might, in fact, have had greater need. Such effects can override social fusion, creating 'cleavage planes' (Gordon, 2004). This was noted by Fordham and Ketteridge (1995) in communities in Perth and Strathclyde, flooded in 1993 and 1994 respectively One thousand out of the 1200 flooded properties in Perth comprised local authority housing (Smith, 1993). In the aftermath of the flood it was widely thought that these tenants had been favoured over owner-occupiers and private tenants.

2.15 The longer-term flood impacts on a community are poorly documented and vary markedly. In some locations the flood risk may reduce longer term investment in a flooded area with a knock-on effect on the housing market if substantial out-migration occurs. Yeo (2003) provides an international review of the impacts of flooding on property values, reporting effects lasting from two to more than ten years, and a wide range of changes in value associated with flooding. They vary from reduced values of up to 60% (though more typically in the order of 25%) to increased values associated with the benefits of repairs. Some reduced valuations were associated with the publication of flood risk maps.

Scotland

2.16 Although the economic damage from the 1994 Strathclyde floods and the 1993 Perth flood were reported as exceeding £100m and £30m respectively, the indirect social and health effects were not costed for either event (Chatterton, 1995). However, some qualitative data are available on the impacts of flooding on some of the communities involved. Thus Fordham and Ketteridge (1995) reported on problems faced by residents in Ferguslie Park, Renfrewshire with anecdotal evidence of inadequate emergency accommodation and many difficulties faced in the aftermath by those residents with inadequate insurance. In Perth, some difficulties were noted in prioritising assistance, with owner occupiers having felt 'left out' by the emergency services. Enarson and Fordham (2001) also noted that the impacts of these two flooding events were highly gender-specific, with women shouldering much of the burden of organising re-housing and/or household reconstruction, obtaining social security benefits and coping with family strains including support for partners and child care. This led to persistent strain and self-reported evidence of stress and depression.

2.17 More recently, the Scoping study into the cost of flooding using the August 2004 event as a case study ( JBA, 2005) estimated the overall costs of the widespread flooding and associated damage in Scotland from the August 2004 floods at between £7.2 and £31 million. This estimate includes some 'monetised' social costs; evacuation costs, loss of earnings and loss of recreation opportunities, plus costs of treating injuries and worry about future flooding. Several other costs were not monetised, including loss of irreplaceables, damage to natural habitats and historical sites, loss of confidence in authorities and services, loss of services, loss of income/earnings, loss of community and disruption due to flood warnings or alarms. Those costs that were assigned a monetary value ranged from £0.6 to £3.7 million. However, the report noted that:

"Worry about future flooding is only included for those properties that were flooded. This may be an underestimate in that other households may also be concerned about the potential for flooding, particularly if their property is close to that flooded in 2004". ( JBA, 2005, p31)

The report further postulated that

"Overall the non-monetised impacts are not expected to be significant when compared with the money estimates." ( JBA, 2005, p34)

This assertion has not yet been tested in Scotland by a social survey. The key findings of the RPA (2005) survey also require appraisal in Scottish communities, which may, as proposed by Werritty with Chatterton (2004) have different characteristics to those in England and Wales.

Living with flood risk

Social drivers of vulnerability

2.18 A full analysis of the effect of the floods requires us to link the physical hazard to the social impacts resulting from it. These impacts are both direct, from the flood itself and indirect, from living with it 'in the background' (Green et al., 1994; Oliver-Smith and Hoffman, 1999).

2.19 The Office of Science and Technology 'Foresight' study Future Flooding (Evans et al., 2004) is the most significant attempt to date to isolate the controls on flood risk in the UK and, by linking physical and societal drivers, the optimal responses to future risk. Using a source-pathway-receptor flood risk model, the study found that for three out of four modelled socioeconomic scenarios to 2080, social factors were the most important determinant of the impact of future flooding events, but also had the highest range of uncertainty. Prominent among the 'key messages' for researchers was to reduce the uncertainty in knowledge of these social factors and, from this, to make a strategic assessment of the optimal responses to flood risk for particular areas (see Box 2).

2.20 The concepts of vulnerability, coping capacity and adaptation help define the potential for managing future flood risk (Hewitt, 1983; Green, 1994; Cutter, 1996; Smit and Pilifosova, 2001; Brooks, 2003; Wisner et al., 2004). Vulnerability is the set of conditions and processes that determine both the likelihood of exposure and resulting susceptibility of individuals and social systems to the hazard. Few (2006, p. 20), adopting Blaikie et al. (1994), defines vulnerability in the context of floods as:

"a set of conditions and processes that determine the likelihood of exposure and the resulting susceptibility of humans or human systems to the adverse effects of a flood hazard."

There is a growing interest in using the social aspects of vulnerability as tools to develop policies that can minimise risk and maximise the ability to anticipate and adapt to the flood hazard. Characterising the social aspects of vulnerability comes from investigating the impacts of past floods at the individual and community level, and living with continuing and increasing vulnerability to future floods. Generalisation is difficult as the relationship between the scale of the event and the actual or potential hardship suffered is not unique; the same event may have very different effects even on adjacent households (Wisner et al., 2004). Although vulnerability is multi-faceted, helpful indices can be derived based on the social characteristics of particular areas, such as the Social Flood Vulnerability Index ( SFVI) (Tapsell et al., 2002) which integrates social factors (presence of long term sick, elderly and lone parents) and financial factors (non-homeowners, non-car owners, presence of unemployed, and amount of crowded housing). Flood alleviation benefits can then be assessed more accurately with this information to hand (Penning-Rowsell and Green, 2000).

2.21 Coping capacity is implicit in the above definition of vulnerability. It takes a positive approach, emphasising the ability of individuals and groups both to avoid exposure to hazard and to tolerate and recover from the adverse effects when that hazard becomes a disaster (Handmer, 2003; White et al., 2004; Few, 2006). It is important to emphasise the action potential of individual communities and not just label them 'disaster prone' (Bankoff, 2001). Social factors and institutional factors must both be studied in order to establish the best policy approach to maximise coping capacity and thereby reducing vulnerability (Woodward et al., 2000). The authors of Future Flooding (Evans et al., 2004) drew up a suite of possible policy approaches, technical solutions and other interventions to manage future risk along the source-path-receptor route (see Box 2).

2.22 The best approach in enhancing coping capacity is to focus on diverse needs, looking at the level of social capital and degree of economic security and equality in each area (Cutter, 1996; Crichton, 1999; Bankhoff, 2001; Enarson and Morrow, 2001; Adeola, 2003; Handmer, 2003; Walker et al., 2003; Fielding and Burningham, 2005; Van der Veen and Logtmeijer, 2005). Existing surveys in developed countries have suggested that large differences can exist in the demands faced by families with children, women, minorities, the sick and the elderly, both during and after the flood event (Buckland and Rahman 1997; Morrow, 1999; Tapsell and Turnstall 2001; Enarson and Fordham, 2001; Cutter et al., 2003). Local coping capacity may, in some cases, also have been weakened by past floods. Their effects may also be persistent and result in existing community divisions being exacerbated by another flood (Fordham and Ketteridge, 1995). The weakening of coping capacity may continue through a decline in family cohesion, residential property values (Yeo, 2003), community focal points, including local businesses, and an increasing disconnection with government and stakeholders. The possibility of a 'downward spiral', with ever-increasing vulnerability, then becomes a threat that must be addressed.

2.23 Adaptation to the flood hazard denotes a long-term increase in coping capacity which can arise from a combined change in individual behaviour, resources, infrastructure and functions of individuals and their community (Parker, 2000; Brooks, 2003; Few, 2006). Although applied extensively in developing countries (Wisner et al., 2004), this concept has also proved useful in developed countries, particularly in the context of coping with climatic change and consequential increased flood risk (Baxter et al., 2001; Smit et al. 2001; Evans et al., 2004). By studying the social characteristics of particular areas, we can analyse the 'adaptation likelihood' of the existing social status quo (Brooks, 2003) and focus on what appears to work best. Integrating these social and institutional adaptative responses to a flood hazard may lead to a 'virtuous circle' where the processes by which vulnerability is reduced also reinforce community links and connection with stakeholders. As Few (2006, p 27) notes "response to flood risk that is rooted in public inclusion and local scale capacity building is a key element in long term risk reduction" .

2.24 A consensus is emerging that the adaptations that are required are those that integrate policies and actions at the higher systems level, such as defence, warning, emergency management, the range of assets at the local level and the knowledge and skills of individuals and stakeholders (Neal and Phillips, 1995; Brown and Damery, 2002; Few, 2006). Attention must still be given to maximising the effectiveness of those methods that need high level organisation and management, such as flood warning and strategic emergency planning (Buckland and Rahman, 1999; Few, 2003). According to the IFRC (2002), full preparedness should include:

• risk and vulnerability mapping
• disaster awareness and education
• early warning and evacuation
• stockpiling of relief materials
• training in response skills
• planning at all levels to ensure co-ordination of the disaster response.

In this regard it will be helpful to develop an accurate picture of the state of this integration in Scotland from the point of view of the public at risk of flooding, and stakeholders, which forms one of the objectives of this project.

Distribution of risk and vulnerability

2.25 An important part of planning for flood risk is to track where those communities at risk of flooding are located and their relation to those likely to suffer the most severe social impact.

2.26 Digital terrain models coupled with inundation algorithms provide increasingly accurate maps of areas at risk of fluvial and coastal flooding (Hall et al., 2005). SEPA's Indicative River and Coastal Flood Map based on these models provides a major advance in depicting flood risk across Scotland ( SEPA, 2006). But few data exist on awareness and attitudes to flooding and the economic and social profiles of those living in flood risk zones. Awareness of both the risk and appropriate response enables residents to prepare in a way that can reduce the social impacts of a flood event when it occurs. When coupled to effective warning systems and workable emergency plans, severe damage and/or its social impacts may be limited or even averted. The key message is that the success of such systems and plans depends on individual and community awareness, attitudes and participation (Twigg et al., 2001; Enders, 2001).

2.27 DEFRA's project Flood risks to people aims to develop a methodology for vulnerability and risk mapping for floods in the UK and thus channel attention to areas that need most focus on flood preparedness. The project develops concepts of 'hazard rating', 'area vulnerability' and 'people vulnerability' that result from combining the physical characteristics of the flood with locational and social characteristics ( DEFRA, 2006). The 'area vulnerability' score includes fixed features, such as housing type and the effectiveness of measures to manage the risk, such as the presence of flood warning. 'People vulnerability' is related to the age and health of the people in this area and their likely behaviour during flooding ( e.g. likelihood of self-evacuation once the flood has started, putting themselves at physical risk).

2.28 Knowledge of the economic and social characteristics of those in flood risk zones has also been the focus of research. The possibility of using spatially referenced data to generalise the economic characteristics of those at flood risk was examined by Fielding and Burningham (2005). In this study designed to detect any social inequalities, social class characteristics of the population at risk from flooding at selected sites in England were compared with the population considered not at risk. Much depends on the basis of aggregation; the use of broad census districts for spatial subdivision giving a different result to a grid model-based aggregation method. The grid model was considered more accurate and indicated that lower income groups were disproportionately located in the flood risk zones. A UK-wide study by Walker et al. (2006) also concluded that more vulnerable groups are more likely to live in areas at risk of coastal flooding. However this effect, whilst significant at a regional level, was not replicated for the UK as a whole, again hinting at important scale effects. A study in Florida designed to prioritise areas for evacuation purposes reported similar findings in relation to the risk of hurricane damage (Chakraborty, 2005). Both studies imply it is difficult to generalise on the social profiles of those living in hazardous locations. At some scales there may be a clear discrepancy in economic and social characteristics between those at risk and those not at risk, but there are no consistent regional or national patterns. No attempt has yet been made to extend this methodology to Scotland.

Warnings and emergency preparedness

2.29 Effective warnings maximise a community's ability to adapt to an impending flood and help minimise loss and trauma. They are deemed to be a crucial factor in reducing the risk of loss of life, and are often a most cost effective measure in regions where defences are not physically or economically feasible. The lack of warning systems has been linked to the high casualty rates and economic damage in the Czech Republic and Poland during the floods of 1997. In Germany, where warning systems were present, both were much lower in the same event (Rosenthal et al., 1998; Penning-Rowsell et al., 2004; DEFRA, 2006).

2.30 Most people affected by the 1998 floods in England and Wales did not receive a warning, which led to a revision of the Environment Agency's procedures and the establishment of Floodline (subsequently extended to Scotland by SEPA). In the 2000 floods in England and Wales, there was no loss of life and the warning systems gave authorities more chance to evacuate those at risk (Kelman, 2001). The effectiveness of warnings, however, is highly dependent on lead times. There is a stark contrast in lead times between pluvial/flash floods and fluvial floods, with the lead times for pluvial flooding drastically lower or non-existent (Rosenthal and Bezuyen, 2000). In January 2005 several areas in northern England and Scotland had little or no warning, either because the flooding was coastal ( e.g. Western Isles of Scotland) or because of very rapid combined pluvial and fluvial flooding ( e.g. Carlisle). The provision and lead time of warnings is an important aspect of 'area vulnerability' in DEFRA's Flood risks to people project (para 2.27). There are severe difficulties in developing warning systems for pluvial flash floods (Bruen, 1999), but ongoing projects are seeking to address this.

2.31 Flood warning systems in the UK have generally met with favourable comment internationally. Thus Handmer (2002) noted the value of the media and web-based based warnings from the Environment Agency and SEPA, and the clarity of the four stage alert classification. However, in a wide-ranging review of flood warning systems in North America and Europe, he also identified several areas of general concern that apply to the UK: the need for effective processes to ensure community engagement, determining and delivering appropriate advice on what action to take on receipt of a warning; and identifying high risk groups to ensure they get the advice that they need.

2.32 Glantz (2003) in a wide-ranging global review of various approaches to flood warning points to several 'dos and don'ts'. Prominent among the 'do's are:

• educate and remind, especially between hazard episodes, bearing in mind the inherent public tendency to discount the past;
• time warnings correctly;
• involve stakeholders as early as possible in the development and review of a warning system; and
• identify what it is that makes societies more or less vulnerable and more or less resilient.

2.33 It is clear from these reviews that the dissemination requirements should not be neglected. Co-ordination between public sector bodies and local institutions across a variety of sectors is crucial to establish dissemination plans that 'work' when a flood strikes ( IFRC, 2002). It is helpful to survey examples of interaction between communities and management bodies (Davis et al., 2004). Best practice places stress on co-operation and community participation, which also helps manage public expectations of a warning system and ensures that the public are aware the system does not stand alone but must be combined with further advice (Keys, 1991;

Lichterman, 2000). Twigg et al. (2001) comment that this engagement allows people to express needs and priorities and reinforces local organisation. Parker (2000) points out the need also for a relationship of trust with authorities, which is helped by familiar individuals on the ground persuading the public to act on warnings.

2.34 International examples exist of attempts to link flood warning to positive behaviour by recipients. Australia's 'total flood warning' system (Handmer, 2000) provides an example that emphasises prediction and dissemination, alongside prescribed responses by management agencies and communities, plus institutional co-operation in the review and improvement of the scheme. Another example of a successful approach is provided by Blandford, South Canterbury, New Zealand, where full information brochures and outreach programmes, along with site-specific signage and warning status signs, have been introduced (Kingsbury, 2000). The measures have proved successful in alerting tourists and others temporarily on the site to the dangers and steps to take in the event of a flood.

2.35 In relation to evacuation, problems have been identied: notably, the resistance of a population that has not been subjected to a flood before. Pfister (2002) observed that this was a significant factor in the lack of response to an evacuation order in New South Wales, Australia, and noted that the effect of 'crying wolf' might make future evacuation more difficult (also reported by Dow and Cutter (1998) as an effect of repeated hurricane warnings in the USA).

2.36 A further area of concern is that of the 'residual risk' groups that remain even after implementing flood warning dissemination and evacuation plans (Handmer, 2001). This group is highly uncertain in size, but contains those potentially subject to most impact following a flood and most at risk of death. These less visible groups require inclusion in flood warning plans as well. Handmer also identifies people mobile at the time of the flood, those in the site temporarily, seasonal workers and those socially isolated as examples of less visible groups.

2.37 The need to be aware of vulnerable groups has been reinforced by a survey into attitudes to flood warning systems by Thrush et al. (2005). This study sought to identify groups in England particularly at risk through being located in areas flooded in 2000, but who were also less likely than others to receive, or to respond to, warnings. Confirming many of the published findings noted above, socially vulnerable groups in risk areas were both less likely to receive warnings and less able to take action in the event of receiving them. In terms of receiving warnings, those at risk included minority ethnic groups (especially where language was an issue); older people who were confused; those with mental or physical illness; and those with other special needs, including hearing impairment (particularly relevant for telephone warnings). In terms of taking action on receiving a warning, those most at risk included single people (compared to households with two or more adults), those new to an area, and families with young and/or dependant children.

2.38 In Scotland, SEPA reported low levels of awareness of Floodline among those living in the 42 flood risk areas covered by its Floodline warnings ( SEPA, 2004, 2005). A large number of respondents aware that they were in a risk area were unaware that they were in a Floodline warning scheme area. Awareness increased following various campaigns, including an 'awareness fortnight' in 2003 and a follow-up advertising campaign in 2004, and trailer and information displays in flood risk areas during 2005. The most recent information from SEPA indicates that, in a telephone interview sample of 200 adults in 11 'at-risk' zones in October 2005 and prior to a flood awareness campaign, 95% did not think their property was at risk of flooding. Although a majority had heard of Floodline, only around 24% said they knew a little or a lot about its operation. Of those responding to feedback questionnaires following a visit to a mobile exhibition, 67% of households had been flooded in the past, but only 30% had made any preparation for flooding. Encouragingly, 81% said that they would be making preparations for flooding as a result of the visit, indicating the value of this direct community contact.

2.39 A recent scoping study assessing the benefits of flood warning schemes reviewed SEPA's existing cost benefit assessment procedures and urged a shift in focus away from "the movement of possessions, to a holistic approach incorporating the benefits from operational and resilience activities" ( SNIFFER, 2006, p. ii) . Whilst noting the importance of intangible losses from flooding (life, injury, health and well-being), clear guidance on quantifying such losses in terms of flood warning benefits awaits further research. However, the study concluded that an economic valuation of the tangible benefits of flood warning in Scotland could be undertaken based on the Multi-Coloured Manual (Penning-Rowsell et al., 2005) whilst noting that high levels of uncertainty in existing flood damage data sets could make it challenging to attribute actual savings to any given flood warning scheme.

Insurance

2.40 Insurance provision covering both buildings and contents is the dominant means of managing flood risk at the household level in the UK. There is a stark differentiation in the impact of floods on those with and without insurance (Fordham and Ketteridge, 1995). Affordable flood insurance cover for buildings has been readily available from the early 1960s to the late 90s, due to the agreement drawn up between the British Insurance Industry Association (forerunner to the Association of British Insurers - ABI) and the UK Government. This availability, tied to the expansion of owner-occupation, has resulted in the vast majority of Scottish homeowners and landlords having building cover for floods, usually as a condition of their mortgages, with average household premiums around £250 (Crichton, 2005).

2.41 Over the past 10-15 years the amount paid for flood damage by insurance companies has increased rapidly. Global losses in the 1990s exceeded US$200bn, with insured losses from the 2002 European floods at â'¬3.4bn (Munich Re, 2005). In the UK, the 2000 floods generated insured losses of more than £1bn (Environment Agency, 2000) causing the industry to consult on a range of strategic options for the future (Green and Penning-Rowsell, 2002). The response has been to develop internal risk assessment methods enabling the industry to take on new business thanks to the more detailed information gained from these methods on the flood risk of individual properties ( ABI, 2005). Coverage is now provided to 'almost all' households in 'high' flood risk locations, although the industry makes no claim to provide universal coverage ( ABI, 2005).

2.42 The current ABI pledge on providing household and business insurance dates from 11 ^th November 2005. Where properties are subject to a 1-in-75 year or worse risk of flooding, households and businesses should still be able to obtain insurance cover where there are plans to improve defences in the next five years. However, the position remains that insurance provided will be subject to premiums that reflect the assessed risk to the property and market forces.

2.43 Introducing the new agreement, Stephen Haddrill, the ABI's Director General, said

"The insurance industry is committed to ensuring that flood insurance remains available to existing customers where flood defences will be in place within five years. This is good news for the millions of homeowners and businesses who rely on insurance for financial protection from the cost of flooding. The Government's commitment to effective management of flood risk is very welcome, and enables our members to continue flood cover for almost all households and businesses at risk of flooding. "However, we expect climate change to dramatically increase the flood risk, so continued improvements on the ground are vital. For flood insurance to remain widely available, the Government must make further progress in reducing the flood risk in vulnerable communities throughout the country" (quoted from ABI news release Friday, 11 November 2005).

It is noted that no distinction is made between the UK and Scottish governments in this statement, although the difference in approach to flood risk management in Scotland has had an influence on the policies of some insurance companies, and arguably should have had more (Crichton, 2003a and pers. comm.).

2.44 The social impact of the change in the price and availability of insurance has been poorly documented both in Scotland and the UK as a whole. Insurance penetration is likely to be lower for those on low incomes, and the policy changes by the industry threaten to make the impact ever greater for those groups. Contents insurance is also likely to have been taken up to a lesser degree in this group. Around 20-25% of UK households do not have home contents cover (Priest et al., 2005) and the attendant risk from flooding is likely to be borne more disproportionately by lower income groups (Arnell, 2000).

2.45 A variety of reasons are documented for this lack of insurance cover, ranging from incomplete information on risk to inability to afford it (Whyley et al., 1998). Among those who are covered for both buildings and contents, there may be a reluctance to take other flood protection measures or to act on flood warning - the so-called 'moral hazard' (Handmer, 1989).

2.46 Fordham and Ketteridge (1995) found that lack of insurance and under-insurance for home contents were common factors in exacerbating the impact of the early to mid 1990s floods in Scotland. The causes for underinsurance were said to have been unrelated to the flood risk, but reflected the 'red-lining' of areas of public housing by insurance companies due to risks of vandalism and theft. Data are scarce on the take-up of contents insurance in flood risk zones in Scotland and whether similar insurance company concerns still prevail in such zones. On a UK level, it has been found that 80% of all households are covered by contents insurance, but only around 50% of tenants, including local authority tenants, have contents insurance. As noted by Hood et al. (2005), this is significant as having contents insurance makes it far less likely that the occupier will seek emergency assistance and temporary housing at local authority expense. Initiatives have been taken to encourage the uptake of 'pay with rent' schemes for public sector tenants (Demos and Toynbee Hall, 2005). Following the discovery that 42% of public sector tenants had no contents insurance, the Scottish Executive allocated £500,000 in 2003 to aid the promotion of existing schemes. Currently, 80% of Scottish councils operate such schemes, although take-up by tenants still appears to be low (Crichton, pers comm.).

2.47 Removable flood defences may provide a solution to lack of insurance for some householders. Crichton (2003b) observed that over 150 types of removable protection were then available on the open market, although due to uncertainties about their effectiveness or deployment, their use would be unlikely to change the eligibility of the property for insurance coverage. However, at present there is little research into the extent of their uptake or into social attitudes to these systems, although some evidence exists that local authorities have promoted their uptake in flood risk areas. The uptake of flood resistance measures following flooding of buildings ('resilient reinstatement'), which could reduce the value of future claims for properties that have been flooded in the past ( ABI, 2003) has also yet to be assessed.

The 'sustainable approach' to flood risk management

2.48 DEFRA's Flood risks to people project reflects a general move towards viewing flood preparedness as a suite of non-structural measures which include planning and building control, insurance and effective forecasting and flood warning ( DEFRA, 2006). All these measures will be required on a national basis across the UK as and when the proposed EU Floods Directive becomes law. In Scotland, there are already legal implications of such measures with the provision of sustainable flood management now a statutory duty on responsible authorities as the Water Environment and Water Services (Scotland) Act 2003 comes into operation.

2.49 For the purposes of Scottish legislation sustainable flood management has been defined as providing:

"..the maximum possible social and economic resilience against flooding, by protecting and working with the environment, in a way which is fair and affordable both now and in the future".

This definition was recommended by the National Technical Advisory Group (Scottish Executive, 2005) for implementation of the Water Environment and Water Services (Scotland) Act 2003, and includes 'enhancement of community benefit with fair outcomes for everyone' as one of its objectives. 'Resilience' encompasses the four 'A's': Awareness of flood risk, Alleviation of the effects of the flood, Avoidance of the risk where possible, and Assistance in the event of difficulties.

2.50 As part of the non-structural and planning aspects of 'alleviation' and 'avoidance' approaches, catchment wide management and 'soft' defences should be implemented generating environmental gain by the restoration of riparian wetlands restoration and the creation of detention ponds (Davis, 2004; Scrase and Sheate, 2005). Making space for water ( DEFRA, 2004) which strongly advocated this approach has met with a generally favourable response from consultee stakeholders in England. It advocates a mix of policies to prevent creation of new risk, manage existing risk and increase resistance and resilience. It also stresses the need to understand and accept the respective roles of the state, central and local government, NGOs and individuals, in flood risk management. This 'integrated portfolio' of responses will, it is hoped, contribute to the sustainable development objectives of reducing the threat to people and property and delivering the greatest environmental, social and economic benefit. However, the flood alleviation capabilities must be capable of withstanding extreme events, and research in this respect reports mixed results (Scottish Executive, 2005).

2.51 Use of riverbank realignment and land restoration is occurring in Scotland by some local authorities using powers available to them under the Flood Prevention and Land Drainage (Scotland) Act 1997. The various measures incorporated include alleviation work in river channels, biodiversity improvements, farming practice improvements, using local knowledge and public participation as well as technical studies of the catchments concerned. Although reported to having beneficial effects (Smith, 2005), there is a lack of information on social attitudes in Scotland for such rural flood management measures.

2.52 There are also international examples of good practice to draw on. One approach is the plan in London, Ontario, Canada, where land use planning and wetland re-establishment have been combined with existing hard dams and defences to create a catchment with a high degree of resilience to flooding (Brick and Goldt, 2001). The land use planning regime is strict: no new development is permitted on the floodplain and existing residents can only sell to the municipal authority when they move, who then demolish the property. The Napa River Flood protection project in the USA also indicates the value of community participation in implementing a sustainable river management scheme for a river that had been artificially straightened, again with a strong emphasis on ecological restoration (Bechtol and Laurien, 2005).

2.53 Sustainable urban drainage systems ( SUDS) in urban areas, if properly designed and maintained, also have potential to contribute to the sustainable flood management approach. The SNIFFER project on Social impacts of stormwater management techniques ( SNIFFER, 2005) investigated social attitudes in zones where sustainable flood management systems have been implemented in urban areas across the UK. It found that the public held strong views on what they favoured in such systems, with an emphasis on aesthetics, amenity and recreation value. There is a need both to take the public's views into account and for better publicity about proposed schemes prior to implementation, to ensure social acceptability, particularly where current awareness levels are low.

Summary

2.54 This chapter has reviewed the impacts of flooding (flood-related deaths, health-related intangible losses, and community and housing impacts) and has included a small number of earlier studies relating to Scotland. Living with flood risk (social drivers of vulnerability, distribution of risk and vulnerability, warnings and emergency preparedness, and insurance) provided a second area in the review. Recent more sustainable approaches to flood risk management in Scotland, the rest of the UK and abroad have also been examined.

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