The Scottish Government

« Previous | Contents | Next »

Listen

CHAPTER ELEVEN ASSESSING OVERALL CHANGE

Introduction

11.1 As Chapter Ten has shown, assessing change at the level of the individual scheme is complex and often few consistent messages emerge. This Chapter takes a different approach, by looking at the changes that have taken place in a number of indicators that have been selected by more than one scheme. As such it moves away from a spatial to an aspatial analysis. Unfortunately a small number of case study and non-case study schemes selected the same indicators and an even smaller sub-set had complete data that could be analysed. Accordingly the analysis in this Chapter is based upon a small sample so that the conclusions need to be treated with a degree of caution.

Case Study Areas

11.2 Across the case study areas there were 4 indicators that were used to monitor progress in at least 2 schemes. These were:-

• Breach of the Peace, selected by 3 schemes;
• Racially aggravated conduct (2 schemes);
• Vandalism (6 schemes);
• Malicious false alarm (2 schemes).

Table 11.1 looks at the comparative changes in these indicators. Although the data is not complete what can be seen is that:-

• For Breach of the Peace the change in the wardened areas has been greater than in the comparators, with the number of reported incidents increasing;
• Malicious False Alarms have increased in the wardened areas at a slower rate than in Scotland as a whole, although no comparator local authority data were available;
• Incidences of vandalism have increased in the wardened areas at a slower rate than in Scotland but at a far faster rate than in the comparator local authorities where the change has been almost static; and
• Racially Aggravated Conduct has increased at a far slower rate than in the local authority comparator areas. However, interpretation of this statistic needs to be done with caution due to the relatively small number of reported incidents.

TABLE 11.1
Comparative Changes in Key Indicators - Case Study Areas (Baseline to Year 2)

Note:-

1. The schemes on which this analysis is based are Aberdeen, Dumfries and Galloway (North West Dumfries) and South Lanarkshire.

2. The schemes on which this analysis is based are Dumfries and Galloway (North West Dumfries) and Dundee.

3. The schemes on which this analysis is based are Aberdeen, Dundee, Edinburgh, Orkney, Perth and Kinross and South Lanarkshire.

4. The schemes on which this analysis is based are Aberdeen and South Lanarkshire.

5. Data is not available for the comparator authorities.

6. Data seems not to be available at the Scottish level.

11.3 Table 11.2 looks in greater detail at the changes in the indicators over time. This shows a more interesting picture. Although all of the indicators show increases between the baseline and Year 2 there is an initial increase in Year 1, followed by a fall in Year 2 for 3 of the 4 (Malicious False Alarms is the exception). The falls between Years 1 and 2 are:-

• For Breach of the Peace: a fall of some 2%;
• For Vandalism a fall of 4%; and
• Racially aggravated conduct: a fall of 24%, albeit the numbers are small in comparison with the other indicators.

This pattern follows the Rise and Fall scenario outlined in Chapter 9 and was predicted by the Executive in its initial guidance to the schemes. Malicious False Alarms do not follow this pattern, showing a consistent increase. Why there should be this difference may reflect the nature of the crime/offence with the 2 that have fallen being observational crimes that may fall because perpetrators feel that they stand a chance of being seen (and reported) by the wardens. Malicious False Alarms, on the other hand, are "remote" crimes that may be more difficult to influence by such interventions as wardens.

TABLE 11.2 Changes in Selected Indicators- Case Study Areas

11.4 Qualitative evidence from the case study consultations backs the Rise and Fall (Confidence) theory. The general view is that the wardens take time to establish themselves in their patrol areas and to build trust among local residents. Residents gradually come to believe that there is some value in reporting incidents of crime or antisocial behaviour as there now seems a greater chance that something will happen. The result is that the reported level of crime increases so that it is closer to the "real" level. The decline from Year 1 to Year 2 could, therefore, indicate that the wardens are having an impact in their target areas, though ongoing monitoring will be necessary to prove this point and, importantly, to test the alternative explanation that Rise and Fall is due to the realisation that confidence in the wardens was misplaced. If this were the case then the Rise and Fall (Misplaced Confidence) theory would be a more accurate interpretation.

Non-Case Study Areas

11.5 Across the non-case study areas there were 7 indicators that had been used to monitor progress by more than one scheme and for which full datasets were available. These were:-

• Housebreaking (selected by 4 schemes) ;
• Vandalism (3 schemes);
• Breach of the Peace (2 schemes);
• Dishonesty (2 schemes);
• Anti social behaviour (2 schemes);
• Vehicle crime (2 schemes); and
• Wilful fire raising (2 schemes).

11.6 Table 11.3 looks at comparative changes in these indicators. There has been a decline in the incidences of all 7 with some (housebreaking, Breach of the Peace and vehicle crime) falling by quite large percentages.

11.7 The comparative change picture is very positive, with several of the indicators falling at a far faster rate than in the wider area. Indeed some of the indicators are moving in the opposite direction to the comparators, with the incidence of the crime/offences decreasing at the same time as there is an increase in the wider area. Breach of the Peace and wilful fire raising both fall into this category.

TABLE 11.3
Comparative Changes in Key Indicators - Non-Case Study Areas (Baseline to Year 2)

Note:-

1. The schemes on which this analysis is based are Angus, Dumfries and Galloway (North West Dumfries), Fife and Shetland.

2. The schemes on which this analysis is based are Angus, Dumfries and Galloway (North West Dumfries), and Shetland.

3. The schemes on which this analysis is based are Angus and North Lanarkshire.

4. The schemes on which this analysis is based are Dumfries and Galloway (North West Dumfries) and North Lanarkshire.

5. The schemes on which this analysis is based are Fife and North Lanarkshire.

6. The schemes on which this analysis is based are Fife and North Lanarkshire.

7. The schemes on which this analysis is based are Moray and North Lanarkshire.

8. Comparators figures are not available for these crimes/offences.

9. Comparator figures are not available at the Scottish level.

11.8 Table 11.4 looks at the changes in the indicators over time. The year on year changes show a number of patterns:-

• Three indicators conform to the Rise and Fall theory (Breach of the Peace, Dishonesty and Vehicle Crimes);
• Three (Vandalism, Antisocial Behaviour and Wilful Fire Raising) fall between the baseline and Year 1 but then rise in Year 2, although not quite to the Year 1 levels; and
• Housebreaking falls consistently over the 3 years, albeit that this seems to be a trend throughout Scotland as Table 11.3 shows.

TABLE 11.4 Changes in Selected Indicators- Non-Case Study Areas

11.9 Explaining this varied pattern of change is difficult. The nature of the crimes/offences does not seem to be a factor, given that observational crimes figure in all 3 patterns of change. Nor is change in the wider area a factor, given that, as Table 11.3 shows there are increases in the Scottish figures for both Breach of the Peace and Vandalism, which appear in different change patterns. It may, therefore, be that the figures are influenced by circumstances that are specific to the individual schemes and their management.

Combined Case Study and Non Case Study Schemes

11.10 When the case and non-case study areas are combined there are 4 indicators that are used in both types of areas: that is at least one case study and one non-case study scheme selected them. These are:-

• Housebreaking, selected by 5 schemes;
• Vandalism, selected by 9 schemes;
• Breach of the Peace 5 schemes; and
• Vehicle crime, selected by 3 schemes.

The analysis below looks at the changes in each of these indicators for those areas that selected them and draws comparisons with the wider local authority areas and Scotland.

11.11 Chart 11.1 shows that there has been a fairly substantial decline in the number of Housebreaking crimes across the schemes. The chart also shows that the decline has been faster than in the wider area and in Scotland. Thus:-

• There has been a 36% decline in Housebreaking crimes in the 5 warden schemes selecting this indicator; and
• This decline was faster than the fall in the wider areas (26%) and across Scotland as a whole (14%).

What seems to be shown is that, when the statistics for a number of schemes are combined (thereby diluting the extremes), then for Housebreaking the change over time conforms to the Positive Intervention theory outlined earlier.

CHART 11.1 Comparative Changes in Housebreaking Crimes ³⁰

11.12 Chart 11.2 looks at changes in vandalism. What can be seen is that:-

• Crimes of vandalism increased by 17% in warden areas;
• This increase was faster than the growth in the wider area (9%) but slower than across Scotland as a whole (24%); and
• However, between year 1 and year 2 the warden areas experienced a faster decline than the wider area and Scotland.

This change has been affected by the introduction of the Scottish Crime Recording Standard, which increased the number of minor crimes of vandalism recorded by the police ³¹. The broad picture however, appears to be that vandalism is starting to fall at a faster rate within the warden areas, there being a gradual decline in the number of incidences after a sharp increase between year 1 and 2. This conforms to the Rise and Fall (Confidence) theory in that the fall in the wardened areas has been steeper in relative terms than in the comparators. It could, however, be argued that the Rise and Fall (Misplaced Confidence) theory could apply equally. However, if this was the case one would not expect the same pattern of change (Rise and Fall) across Scotland and the wider local authority as well as the wardened areas.

CHART 11.2 Comparative Changes in Vandalism Crimes ³²

11.13 Chart 11.3 looks at Breach of the Peace offences. There has been a sharp increase in the number of offences followed by a large fall in the wardened areas, the wider comparators and across Scotland as a whole. In detail it can be seen that:-

• There has been an 11% increase in Breach of the Peace offences in warden areas over the 2 year period, though there was a sharp increase from the baseline position to year 1 followed by a gradual fall; and
• There was a 13% increase in Breach of the Peace offences in the wider area and a 15% increase across Scotland as a whole.

While Breach of the Peace offences have increased on their baseline position, there has been a clear shift in direction, with the number of offences now declining after a sharp initial increase. This suggests that some progress has been made by the warden schemes in helping to reduce the number of instances of Breaches of the Peace. Again this pattern conforms to the Rise and Fall (Confidence) theory in that the fall has been at a far faster rate than in the comparators.

CHART 11.3 Comparative Changes in Breach of the Peace Offences ³³

11.14 Chart 11.4 looks at vehicle crimes. These have declined in all 3 types of area. In particular:-

• There has been a 16% decline in Vehicle Crimes in warden areas, despite a small increase from the baseline to year 1; and
• This decline was slower than the fall in the wider comparator, which fell by over half (52%) between the baseline and year 2. However, the fall in Scotland was smaller (21%). It is also the case that the decline between years 1 and 2 in the warden areas was faster than in Scotland.

The picture from this indicator is mixed with a decline in the number of crimes, but at a slower rate than in the comparator areas. Whilst this suggests some progress, it can also be interpreted as a real increase in the number of crimes relative to other areas. Given that at least one scheme (Dundee) now feels that it can have little or no impact upon vehicle crime this might be conforming to the No Impact theory.

CHART 11.4 Comparative Changes in Vehicle Crimes ³⁴

Conclusion

11.15 This Chapter has tried to assess the extent to which the indicators selected by more than one warden scheme, to measure impacts upon crime and antisocial behaviour, have changed and to try to relate these changes to a wider theoretical underpinning. The fact that the schemes selected a diverse range of statistical indicators, with relatively little commonality across schemes, and that many schemes had incomplete data sets means that the analysis has had to be based upon a relatively small sub-set of schemes. As such any conclusions must be treated as tentative, albeit they are based on the best available data.

11.16 Given this it seems that:-

• In both the case study and non-case study areas there is evidence to show that the pattern of some reported crimes and offences initially rises and then falls. This is the pattern predicted by the Executive in its 2003 Guidance (Scottish Executive, 2003) and conforms to the Rise and Fall pattern of change;
• The changes in other indicators follow different patterns. Some show consistent falls, other initially fall and then rise;
• When the 4 indicators that were chosen by at least some of the case and non-case study areas are analysed then:-
• • Two (Vandalism and Breach of the Peace) show a classic Rise and Fall pattern. Although this is replicated in the comparator areas, the rate of decline in the wardened areas for reported Breach of the Peace offences from year 1 to year 2 was far faster than in the comparators. The rate of decline for Vandalism was faster than in Scotland and about the same as for the local authority comparators. This would seem to suggest that the wardens are having a positive impact on instances of some recorded crimes. The pattern for both of these crimes/offences conforms to the Rise and Fall (Confidence) theory outlined earlier;
  • For Housebreakings there seems to have been a consistent decline in the wardened areas and in the comparators. The rate of decline in the wardened areas was initially faster than in the comparators. It is now roughly the same. We would argue this reinforces the Positive Intervention theory where the wardens begin to have an impact almost from day one; and
  • For vehicle crimes an initial increase has been followed by a decline that has been at a faster rate than for Scotland, but at about the same rate as for the wider local authority areas. We argue that this reflects the No Impact theory, with the wardens having no differential impact upon the reported incidence of this type of crime. This is something that is, to an extent, reinforced by case study evidence.

11.18 Overall we would argue that there seems to be statistical evidence to show that the wardens are having a differential impact upon reported incidences of some crimes and offences. When taken with the analysis in Chapter 10 it seems that, both at the scheme and at a more strategic level, there is evidence that, in those areas where wardens are operating, some types of crime and antisocial behaviours are falling at a faster rate than in comparator areas.

« Previous | Contents | Next »