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CHAPTER NINE THEORIES OF CHANGE - THE WARDENS' IMPACT ON CRIME STATISTICS

Introduction

9.1 Community wardens have now been operating across the United Kingdom for a number of years. Whilst working towards broadly similar sets of objectives, they perform different functions depending on the legislative framework under which they operate and the specific needs of the communities which they serve. They also often operate as part of a wider set of community initiatives. Given this, attempting to evaluate the impact of community wardens is difficult. It is, however, possible to develop a number of theories as to the impact that the wardens might have upon the incidence of recorded crime and antisocial behaviour. These can then be tested in subsequent Chapters when changes in key statistics are analysed.

Impact Theories

9.2 We start by outlining 4 broad changes that might be observed in the statistics for recorded crime and antisocial behaviours. These are:-

• Rise and Fall, when the recorded incidence of crime initially rises and then begins to fall;
• Fall, when recorded crime falls steadily until there is no differential between the areas in which the wardens are based and the wider region;
• Neutral, when recorded crime levels change in parallel with changes in the wider region with no noticeable change being attributable to the wardens; and
• Rise, when the recorded incidents of crimes increase over time.

9.3 Each of these statistical changes can be explained in terms of a number of theories. Thus:-

• Three theories can be put forward to explain Rise and Fall change:-
• • The first (the Rise and Fall (Confidence) theory) is positive in that reported crime rises as residents become confident that the wardens will ensure that something is done about crime. After this initial rise, recorded crime levels begin to fall, reflecting a drop in the "real" levels of crime as a result of the wardens' activities;
  • The second is relatively negative ( Rise and Fall ( Misplaced Confidence)) in that recorded crime levels rise as confidence in the wardens increases. However, over time it becomes clear that the wardens are incapable of influencing crime levels. Accordingly residents stop reporting crimes and the statistics fall, although the real crime levels remain as high as before; and
  • The third is Displacement in that the eventual fall in reported crime is a reflection of crime being displaced to adjacent areas where the perpetrators feel that there is less chance of being apprehended;
• The theory underpinning Fall changes is that the wardens immediately start to influence crime levels so that the numbers of reported crimes begin to fall very soon after the wardens start operating. Eventually the situation stabilises when crime levels in the wardened areas match those in the wider region. This can be described as the Positive Intervention theory;
• A number of theories can be put forward to explain Neutral change:-
• • The first ( No Impact) is that the severity of problems within the area is such that the wardens are unable to have any impact upon them so that there is no change in reported crime levels;
  • The second is the Spillover theory. That there is no differential change between the wardened and non-wardened areas reflects the fact that the wardens' interventions have diffused into the wider, non-wardened, areas, so that recorded levels of crime fall in the wider sub-region as well as the areas in which the wardens operate;
  • The third theory is Compensation. Under this, recorded crime levels in wardened, and non-wardened areas, fall at the same rate because additional crime interventions are put in place in the non-wardened areas to ensure an even distribution of resources and anti-crime initiatives across the whole of the local authority area;
• There are 2 possible theories that can be put forward to explain Rise changes:-
• • The first Rise Positive can take 2 forms. First, there is an increase in the incidence of reported crime, but this is due to an increase in reporting (reflecting confidence that something will be done) rather than any actual increase in "real" levels. Alternatively, there has been an increase in the incidence of crime, but at a rate slower than the change in the wider area. This essentially suggests that the area has improved relative to the wider area. Both explanations can be interpreted positively; and
  • The second Rise Negative assumes that the incidence of crime increases and continues to increase, faster than the wider area comparator. The suggestion with this theory is that crime is essentially out of control and that the wardens have failed to have an impact.

These theories are underpinned to various extents by evidence from other evaluations. This will now be considered.

The Evidence Base

9.4 The theory most commonly discussed by commentators is Rise and Fall ( Confidence). In this, initially, there may be limited impact upon recorded figures for crime and offences. However, once the wardens become better known and trusted in the community reported crime levels rise as there is greater confidence that reporting an incident will lead to action being taken. Following this initial increase, crime levels begin to fall for 2 main reasons:-

• Those inclined to undertake criminal and antisocial behaviour actions move elsewhere, as they realise that they stand a greater chance of being apprehended in the areas where the wardens are active: in effect displacement occurs; and
• The intervention of the wardens results in those who perpetrate such acts becoming aware of the impact of their actions. This then causes behaviour modification. This might come about through such things as the wardens' interventions with young people and school visits. However this is likely to be a long term impact and as such may be very hard to prove.

9.5 This scenario was the one envisaged by the Executive when the wardens schemes were first launched (Scottish Executive, July 2003b). It is supported by the work of Shiel et al (2005) who recognised the potential of crime prevention initiatives to contribute to an initial increase in observed crime rates as residents' confidence grew. This was supported by the Evaluation of the Neighbourhood Warden Service in Northern Ireland which concluded that, amongst tenants, there was a greater willingness to report incidents after the wardens began operating (Northern Ireland Housing Executive, 2003, 67).

9.6 Local evidence to support this theory comes from the East Ayrshire "Building Strong, Safe, Attractive Communities" ( BSSAC) Programme Evaluation (Holden McAllister, 2006, 49) where data showed that for the first 8 months of operation the numbers of reported incidents increased before falling dramatically and then levelling off.

9.7 However, conclusive evidence that wardens are contributing to behaviour modification is generally lacking due to the complexity of the issue, the number of variables involved and a lack of robust research. This, in part, reflects the relatively short timescale over which wardens have been operating. At best it is possible to present qualitative evidence of the impact of educational and diversionary activities and draw inferences about the potential impacts such interventions may have on offending behaviour.

9.8 There is little evidence to support the Rise and Fall ( Misplaced Confidence) theory. This theory assumes that initially reported crimes increase as residents feel confident in the wardens and think that action will be taken. However, over time, this confidence begins to decrease as residents perceive that little has changed. Accordingly they begin to stop reporting crimes. The official figures fall but the "real" level of crime remains high.

9.9 Similarly, the evidence to support the Rise and Fall (Displacement) theory tends to be less than conclusive. For example, the Evaluation of the Community Safety Warden Initiative undertaken on behalf of Dundee City Council in 2006 reached an uncertain conclusion in relation to displacement. Focus group participants recognised that a degree of displacement might occur but they also commented that the movement of young people between areas was historical and had not occurred as a result of the introduction of the wardens (Blake Stevenson 2006, 20).

9.10 Qualitative evidence of displacement was, however, highlighted by Shiel et al (2005, 22) in relation to Renfrewshire. Following the introduction of wardens, considerable pressure was put on Renfrewshire Council to extend the scheme across the local authority area. This support, asserted Shiel et al, arose partly in recognition of the need to reduce the level of displacement of antisocial behaviour from the areas patrolled by the wardens.

9.11 Under the Positive Intervention theory it is assumed that the wardens' interventions are successful from the first with a resultant decrease in incidences of crime and antisocial behaviour. There is evidence to back up this scenario. For example, whilst residents of areas patrolled by wardens are more likely to be victims of crime than the national average, the Neighbourhood Warden Scheme Evaluation suggested that the risk had declined since the introduction of wardens. Thus the residents' survey carried out as a part of the Evaluation suggested that there had been a 27.6% decrease in the overall rate of residents experiencing personal or property crime, amounting to 171,700 fewer offences in the 18 months between the 2 surveys (Office of the Deputy Prime Minister, 2004, 30). However, while recognising the role of Neighbourhood Wardens in crime prevention, the report emphasised that it would be unrealistic to attribute this decline solely to the wardens' interventions.

9.12 The successes of the wardens were also highlighted by Shiel et al (2005, 21) who, when discussing the impact of Neighbourhood Wardens in Renfrewshire, presented evidence of reductions in a number of neighbourhood problems. For example, there was:-

• An average reduction of 43.5% in the cost of vandalism to council properties;
• A reduction in the number of reported acts of vandalism;
• An average reduction of 25% in vehicle crimes across scheme areas, compared to a 17% reduction across Renfrewshire; and
• A reduction in disorder crimes in 3 of the 4 warden areas, with an average reduction of 7%, compared to an average increase across Renfrewshire of 5.2%.

9.13 The first main explanation of Neutral change is No Impact, when the wardens, because of the severity of problems in the areas in which they are based, or because they prove to be relatively ineffective, have no, or a very limited, impact upon recorded crime levels. There is little supporting evidence from evaluations to underpin this, although it must be seen as a possible outcome.

9.14 The second explanation under the Neutral theory is Spillover when there may be little, or no, measurable comparative difference in levels of crime and antisocial behaviour between areas served by the wardens and adjacent areas. The reason for this reflects the fact that the wardens' interventions have had a widespread positive impact and have diffused benefits to a wider area than the one on which their activities are targeted.

9.15 Whilst diffusion of benefits, and spillover effects, have been well documented in relation to other crime and antisocial behaviour prevention strategies (for example, the installation of CCTV) evidence in relation to community wardens is inconclusive. This reflects the complexity of the issue and the limited data that is currently available. For example, the Neighbourhood Warden Scheme Evaluation draws attention to the findings of previous research that identified a degree of spillover to non-scheme areas. However, as conclusive data was lacking, the evaluation assumed that diffusion of benefits was more or less balanced by displacement of crime from the scheme to adjacent areas (Office of the Deputy Prime Minister, 2004).

9.16 The final theory that could possibly account for Neutral change is Compensation. Again in this there may be no, or little, measurable difference in levels of crime and antisocial behaviour between areas served by wardens and comparator areas. This is because local authorities have directed additional resources to non-wardened areas to ensure that they do not suffer from comparatively higher crime rates. This scenario is proposed by the National Evaluation of the Street Wardens (Department for Communities and Local Government, 2006, 113).

9.17 The Compensation theory is also supported by the National Evaluation of Community Support Officers ( CSOs) ²⁴ (Home Office Research, 2006). This uncovered no discernable differences in trends in the numbers of crimes and incidents between areas with and those without CSO's, before and after their introduction.

9.18 The Rise theories are not well evidenced. Few of the evaluation reports made any mention of an increase in the incidence of crime (either positively or negatively), especially a sustained increase in recorded offences. The only mentions came when talking theoretically about possible longer term increases in incidents. This lack of evidence is surprising, given that this must be considered as a realistic outcome in some areas.

Ascribing Cause and Effect

9.19 Scottish community wardens are not operating in isolation. Within Scotland they are but one of a large number of initiatives that have been implemented in recent years to try to deal with the problems of antisocial behaviour. For example, in addition to Community Wardens, East Ayrshire Council's BSSAC Programme includes (Holden McAllister, 2006) :-

• A dedicated Antisocial Behaviour Investigation Team;
• Provision of an antisocial behaviour "helpline" available to all East Ayrshire residents;
• Initiatives to discourage underage drinking;
• Extension of provision of Victim Support Services to those affected by antisocial behaviour across East Ayrshire;
• Purchase of a "Respond UK Netpoint" system to allow complainants to register incidences of antisocial behaviour using the internet; and
• Creation of new posts including: an Antisocial Behaviour Co-ordinator, an Antisocial Behaviour Development Officer and a Police/Council Administration Officer to facilitate information flow between key partners.

Although this range of initiatives may be exceptional, most of the case study local authorities have implemented other antisocial behaviour projects, in addition to the warden schemes, as part of their antisocial behaviour strategies.

9.20 This diversity of initiatives means that attributing the contribution of community wardens to observed changes in crime and antisocial behaviour is difficult. Such difficulties are acknowledged in the evaluation of East Ayrshire Council's BSSAC programme (Holden McAllister, 2006, 23) and the National Evaluation of the Street Wardens (Department for Communities and Local Government, 2006, 113). The latter hypothesised that, in order to ensure the equitable division of resources, local authorities may target non-warden areas for alternative crime and antisocial behaviour reduction measures thereby diluting evidence of the impact of community wardens.

9.21 It is also the case that any analysis, based on incidents reported to the police, is using data that is only a partial reflection of the reality of crime. For example, the Scottish Crime and Victimisation Survey suggests that only 44% of crimes recorded by the survey came to the attention of the police (Scottish Executive, 2006). The remaining 56% were unreported and unrecorded in official crime statistics. This suggests that there is scope for recorded crime to increase without there being any increase in the number of offences.

9.22 In addition, reporting of crimes and offences is influenced by media reporting of incidents, perceptions of the likelihood of action being taken if a crime is reported and fear of retribution if incidents are reported. Given these factors, ascribing changes to the interventions of wardens is, as previously stated, not a straightforward task. This is also the conclusion that has emerged from other studies that have tried to analyse the impact of wardens and similar types of interventions, in particular the Neighbourhood Warden Scheme Evaluation (Office of the Deputy Prime Minister, 2004) and the National Evaluation of Police Community Support Officers (Home Office Research, 2006).

9.23 There is also a need to acknowledge the potential impact on recorded crime following the implementation of the Scottish Crime Recording Standard ( SCRS). The main change that this introduced was that there was no longer a need for corroboration for an incident to be recorded as a crime. The intention was to introduce a victim-orientated approach to crime reporting. The Executive's view was that this would:-

"Increase the numbers of minor crimes …….such as …..vandalism and minor thefts. However, it was expected that the SCRS would not have much impact on the figures for the more serious crimes such as serious assault, sexual assault, robbery or housebreaking" (Scottish Executive, 2005, Para 1.2).

9.24 Identifying the impact of SCRS has however, been made difficult by the introduction at the same time, of centralised call centres to deal with calls to the police. It is felt that this has encouraged greater reporting of incidents (Scottish Executive, 2005, Para. 3.2).

9.25 Despite these changes in recording and reporting, we have no evidence to suggest that they are likely to have had any differential spatial impact across Scotland. As such all warden schemes, and any comparator areas, should be affected to the same extent. Accordingly, for the purposes of this analysis, we feel that these changes can be ignored.

Conclusions

9.26 The above paragraphs highlight the complexity of trying to assess the impact of the warden schemes using official statistics. There could be many explanations for the apparent variations in performance across schemes. These could include:-

• The quality of management;
• The quality of the wardens and the diligence with which they approach their job;
• The severity of problems in particular areas; and
• The ability of the wardens to influence some of the indicators as, for example, in Dundee where there are now doubts about the wardens' ability to impact upon car crime.

9.27 This complexity was highlighted in the National Evaluation of the Neighbourhood Warden Scheme in England and Wales which stated that:-

"Evaluating the impact on crime, which is attributable to a single intervention, is notoriously complex", (Office of the Deputy Prime Minister, 2004, 30).

Other evaluations of warden schemes have failed to undertake any analysis of statistical indicators. This would seem to underline the difficulties, both of doing this and of interpreting the results ²⁵. Despite this, in the next Chapter attempts are made to analyse the statistics to see if it is possible to identify the impact of the wardens on recorded crime and other indicators and to substantiate some of the theories outlined earlier. We start by looking at the impact on the case study areas.

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