The Scottish Government

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CHAPTER ONE BACKGROUND AND METHODOLOGY

1.1 The Scottish Executive has developed A Strategy for a Scotland with an Ageing Population (published March 2007), titled: "All Our Futures: Planning for a Scotland with an Ageing Population". The development of the Strategy followed an extensive consultation and research programme which was undertaken over the spring and summer of 2006. The programme included a literature review, an omnibus survey of the general public, a consultation questionnaire, a public website and several subject-specific seminars.

1.2 To complement these activities, the Scottish Executive commissioned Ipsos MORI to undertake qualitative research to explore the views of the general public, including hard to reach groups who may be unlikely to respond to the public consultation.

Policy background

1.3 Scotland's demographic structure is changing. Specifically, increased life expectancy and lower birth rates mean that the population is ageing. Latest figures indicate that the proportion of the population that is of pensionable age will increase by 35 per cent between 2004 and 2031, from 0.97 million to 1.31 million. Moreover, the proportion of people aged 75 and over is projected to rise by 75 per cent from 0.37 million in 2004 to 0.65 million in 2031. Over the same period, it is expected that the proportion of people in work will fall by seven per cent ¹.

1.4 Ageing is linked with physical deterioration: 50 per cent of people aged 70 years or over report having a limiting illness and/or disability compared with 10 per cent of people aged 30-39 years ². This presents Scotland with several challenges including an increased demand for services (such as healthcare and housing) and associated pressures on the economy.

1.5 Many of the challenges relating to services and the economy are currently being addressed through a number of separate policies and initiatives. For example:

• Delivering for Health³, the Executive's programme of action for the NHS in Scotland, acknowledged that the ageing population is one of the key issues facing the NHS in the coming years and emphasises the need to alter the balance of care accordingly
• The Framework for Economic Development in Scotland⁴ commits to making lifelong learning available to all in a bid to change attitudes and habits and increase the extent to which older people can contribute to the economy
• The 21st Century Work Review⁵ takes a fundamental look at all aspects of social work, including the care of the elderly, in order to strengthen its contribution to the delivery of integrated services
• The National Transport Strategy is being developed following a commitment made in the 2004 White Paper, Scotland's Transport Future⁶. One of the commitments made in this White Paper is to introduce a national scheme of free off-peak bus travel for older people and disabled people.

1.6 Up until now, however, there has been no overarching Strategy encompassing all of the challenges facing Scotland as its population ages. The Scottish Executive has therefore developed A Strategy for a Scotland with an Ageing Population. One of the underlying principles of this Strategy is that there are many positives to be taken from the demographic change. Launching the public consultation for the Strategy, the Communities Minister, commented:

We shouldn't view this as a burden - but as an opportunity. Older people have huge banks of experience and skills to offer and I want to see that recognised and maximised.

1.7 Older people make significant contributions to society in many ways such as caring and volunteering and the Scottish Executive is seeking to establish ways of ensuring that older people are able to maximise their potential and make the fullest contribution possible to society.

1.8 The aim of the Strategy for a Scotland with an Ageing Population "All Our Futures: Planning for a Scotland with an Ageing Population" is to provide the framework for:

• access to opportunities for older people to make a continuing contribution, including:
• identifying and removing barriers to opportunities
• establishing effective and diverse ways to involve older people in their communities and with government
• promoting equal opportunities
• promoting social inclusion
• combating stereotypical views of ageing
• effective integrated services for older people
• promoting and maintaining health and well-being
• people living in accommodation and environments which continue to meet their needs and wishes as they age.

Research aims

1.9 The aim of the qualitative research was to explore the opinions of the general public regarding the challenges and opportunities posed by an ageing population. More specifically, the objectives were to explore the following issues:

• attitudes towards the ageing population
• how people view the impact of ageing on themselves - their aspirations for old age and barriers they perceive to fulfilling those aspirations
• perceptions of change needed to support an ageing population.

Methodology

1.10 Seven focus groups and 10 depth interviews were undertaken between 9 ^th May and 17 ^th May 2006.

1.11 The segmentation of the groups and depths is shown in Table 1 below. It was designed to provide breadth across the different groups but relative homogeneity in terms of age and social class within each group. This was important to ensure that participants felt relaxed and uninhibited.

Table 1: Segmentation of groups and depths

1.12 The five disabled people/people with limiting long-term illness were Scottish Household Survey respondents who had indicated that they were willing to take part in further research for the Scottish Executive. They were recruited by letter with a follow-up telephone call to confirm whether they were willing to take part. All other participants were recruited door-to-door by Ipsos MORI trained recruiters.

1.13 The depth interviews took place in participants' own homes (including two in care homes and two in sheltered housing). The focus groups took place in local hotels and in a community resource centre.

1.14 The three Ipsos MORI researchers who have authored this report moderated all the groups and depths.

1.15 The participants themselves dictated the general content and flow of the discussions, within the framework of a series of topics introduced by the moderators. The topics included:

• expectations and planning for old age
• society and older people
• contribution
• work
• services
• health and well-being
• housing
• transport.

1.16 The full discussion guides are included in the Annex.

1.17 With the permission of participants, all discussions were recorded and then transcribed for analysis. XSight (a qualitative analysis software package) was used to organise, code, search and retrieve the text.

A note on the interpretation of qualitative research

1.18 Qualitative research is often compared and contrasted with quantitative research. Qualitative research is less concerned with measurement ("how many?", "how often?", etc.) and more concerned with understanding motivations, attitudes and feelings ("why?", "how?", etc.).

1.19 This study, like most qualitative research, involves many fewer people than quantitative research but it explores their attitudes and experiences in much more depth. The aim is not to generalise to the wider population in terms of the prevalence of attitudes or behaviours (e.g. 'three quarters of Scottish adults have inadequate pension provision' or 'women are more likely than men to worry about health issues') but to identify and explore the different issues and themes relating to the subject being researched. The assumption is that issues and themes affecting the participants are a reflection of issues and themes in the wider population. Although the extent to which they apply to the wider population or specific sub-groups cannot be quantified, the value of qualitative research is in identifying the range of different issues involved and the way in which they can impact on people.

1.20 So, for example, one of the findings from this study was that a factor in some participants' lack of planning for their old age was that they found thinking about growing older too depressing or 'scary'. Although we cannot extrapolate from this and say that this issue affects X% of people in Scotland, the implication is that this is likely to be an issue in the general population.

Structure of the report

1.21 Chapter Two sets out four broad themes (definition of 'older people', awareness of the ageing population issue, a youth-centred orientation and attitudes to planning) which emerged in the discussions. These set the context for the findings and could have major implications for the Strategy. Chapter Three provides further contextual background in the form of an overview of how participants conceptualised old age (freedom from work and family commitments, health, money and the potential for loneliness). Chapter Four discusses participants' hopes and expectations for their old age, the extent to which they were planning and the barriers to fulfilling their aspirations. Chapter Five covers services for older people and, in the main, focuses on perceptions of current provision. Finally, Chapter Six draws conclusions from the research and sets out the implications for the Strategy.

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