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Annex A: Some Significant Future Trends for Scotland
From an overall consideration of trends likely to affect Scotland and the Scottish population over the next 20 years, we have developed a number of relative certainties. These help us to define likely future opportunities and challenges for Scotland and highlight the need to begin now to position our structures and infrastructures to deliver future success. In addition to the certain knowledge that the population will age, the following relative certainties have also been identified:
Globalisation - Interconnectedness between countries is likely to increase under the influence of a number of factors including: an increasing number of multinational corporations; economic growth in some developing countries; accelerating technological development and growth of the knowledge economy; increasing trade - married with more apparent protectionism; increasing political integration coupled with the rise of an anti-globalisation movement.
Pressure on Resources - There is likely to be increasing pressure on natural resources and primary commodities driven by rising global demand for energy and raw materials, however this demand will be tempered by the impact of global warming and rising awareness of "green" alternatives.
Technology - Media and technology are likely to continue to have a powerful impact in our lives. People are likely to use more digital technology and online socialisation and online media access are likely to grow driven by: easier access to new technology, increasing exposure to information technology through education, widening perception and understanding of the added value of new technology in people's lives, the relative affordability of new technology and the success of marketing of technology products by companies. These influences are also likely to dictate the extent to which a Digital Divide will persist in Scotland. As the workforce becomes more skilled in the application of technologies and as the availability of sophisticated technological infrastructure grows, it is likely that new and smaller hubs of technological innovation will be able to form and in turn contribute to accelerate progress.
Rising expectations of Government - As the possibilities for progress expand and increase so it is likely that Governments will be looked upon to show strong and visible leadership. Government may increasingly operate in an environment where consensus around political parties may diminish in favour of single issues and where voting turnout may decline. People may wish to engage with government through other means such as information technology and may indicate their political views in ways other than voting (for example the Make Poverty History Campaign).
These trends were collated as part of the Scottish Executive's Futures Project to underpin strategic policy development in the Scottish Executive. More information on the Futures Project can be found at http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Government/futures/introdufutures
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