The Scottish Government

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Where does power and influence lie?

22. The issue of how much influence different institutions have and ought to have over how Scotland is run is covered by two questions, asked on five occasions since the Scottish Social Attitudes survey began in 1999. The first asks who people think has most influence over the way Scotland is run - the Scottish Parliament or Executive, the UK government at Westminster, local councils or the European Union. The second asks which of these bodies ought to have most influence.

23. The wording of these questions has changed slightly at 2 key points. First, in 1999 the initial question was worded prospectively, asking "When the new parliament starts work, which of the following will have most influence…?" Second, from 2005 both questions have asked about the Scottish Executive (which is arguably more comparable with the UK government option), rather than the Scottish Parliament ⁹.

24. Since 2000 (a year after the Scottish Parliament was established), there has been a gradual but significant increase in the proportion of people saying that the Scottish Executive or Parliament does have most influence, from 13% in 2000 to 23% in 2005 (Figure 4). However, the proportion saying that the Scottish Executive or Parliament should have most influence has remained steady at around two-thirds since 2003 (67% in 2005). As a result, the gap between the two has narrowed gradually over the past 3 years, and if both these trends continue we would expect it to narrow further in the future.

Figure 4 Perceptions of the Scottish Parliament/Executive's role in how Scotland is run, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2003, 2004, 2005 (%)

Sample size: 1999 = 1482, 2000 = 1663, 2001 = 1605, 2003 = 1508, 2004 = 1637, 2005 = 1549

25. In each year the question was asked, the only other body viewed as having significant influence over how Scotland is run has been the UK Government. Every year since SSA began, the proportion who think the UK government does have most say in how Scotland is run has by far outweighed the proportion who say that it ought to do so (Figure 5). However, perceptions of power do appear to be shifting. In 2004 there was a large drop in the proportion who thought the UK government had most influence. This drop was maintained in the 2005 survey where it appeared to be associated with a shift towards the Scottish Executive. ¹⁰

Figure 5 Perceptions of the UK Government's role in how Scotland is run, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2003, 2004, 2005 (%)

Sample size: 1999 = 1482, 2000 = 1663, 2001 = 1605, 2003 = 1508, 2004 = 1637, 2005 = 1549

26. In the following section we explore this apparent shift in more detail. However, it is worth noting that the gap between the proportion of people who think the UK government has most influence (47%) and those who think the Scottish Executive has most influence (23%) remains large. Only further years of data will confirm whether this gap will reduce any further.

What explains changes in perceptions of where power and influence lie?

27. In order to explore possible reasons for changes in the proportions saying the Scottish Executive and UK government have most influence, we examined which factors were most closely associated with each position in 2000 and 2005 (Table 6). This allowed us to determine whether perceptions have changed across the board, or whether certain groups are particularly likely to have shifted to thinking the Scottish Executive has most influence. The first thing to note is that the proportion saying the Scottish Parliament or Executive have most influence increased between 2000 and 2005 across different demographic groups and among people with different political outlooks - for example, both men and women were more likely to say the Scottish Executive had most influence in 2005 than they were to say the Scottish Parliament had most influence in 2000. Similarly, the proportion saying the UK government has most influence has decreased across all the groups included in the analysis. Thus, there does appear to have been a general shift in perception of where influence lies.

28. However, the 2005 SSA found some interesting variations between these different groups when compared with the 2000 survey. For example, while there was only a 2 point difference in the proportion of tabloid and broadsheet newspaper readers saying the Scottish Parliament had most influence in 2000 (13% of tabloid compared with 15% of broadsheet readers), in 2005 the difference was 7 points (20% compared with 27%). In relation to the UK government, the findings are even more striking - in 2000, broadsheet readers were 5 point more likely than tabloid readers to say the UK government had most influence, while in 2005 they were 8 points less likely. Again, this highlights the potential importance of the media in shaping perceptions of government.

29. There were also some interesting variations in 2005 by party political identification and employment sector. In 2000, there was no difference in the proportion of Conservative and Liberal Democrat party identifiers ¹¹ who said that the Scottish Parliament had most influence (Table 6). By 2005 there was an 11 point difference between these groups, with Liberal Democrat identifiers the group most likely to say the Scottish Executive has most influence in 2005. In terms of employment sector, while public sector employees were 5 points more likely than private sector workers to say the Scottish Parliament had most influence in 2000, in 2005 they were 9 points more likely. Employment sector was statistically significant on 2005 but not in 2000 ¹².

30. Thus, while overall the findings suggest that belief in the influence of the Scottish Executive has increased across social and political groups, the widening gaps between some groups in particular suggests that their views may be particularly important in explaining this increase. The large increase in the proportion of Liberal Democrats saying the Scottish Executive has most influence perhaps suggests that seeing the party one identifies with in power (particularly for the first time at a national level) increases the likelihood of viewing the governing institution as influential. Working for the public sector, and perhaps becoming more aware of the work of the Scottish Executive as a result, may also increase perceptions of its influence. Finally, coverage of Executive activities in the broadsheets may have affected the views of some readers on the relative influence of the Scottish Executive and UK government on how Scotland is run (though as discussed above, the direction of the relationship between political attitudes and newspaper readership is not always clear).

Table 5 Belief the Scottish Executive and UK government have most influence on how Scotland is run, by significant demographic and attitudinal factors, 2000 and 2005

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