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This publication provides results of the annual survey on children educated outwith school, and the latest projections of pupil numbers.
The main findings are: -
Children educated outwith school
- In 2005/06 there were 877 children who received local authority education at home or in hospital due to prolonged ill health, or through special arrangements put in place as a result of family illness.
- A further 213 children received education at home under 'other extraordinary circumstances'. Examples of 'extraordinary circumstances' include pupils unable to attend school because of geographical remoteness, travellers' children who may spend part of the school year outwith school and prolonged adverse weather affecting the ability of island children to attend school. The large increase in this figure from 113 children in 2004/05 was mainly due to a change in recording procedures by a local authority, hence the two figures are not comparable.
- In 2005/06, 580 children were known by local authorities to be receiving home education as a result of parental choice, who had at some point in the past been in local authority school education. This figure had risen by 163 (39 per cent) from the previous year, although this varied between local authorities.
- Another 126 children who had never been in local authority school education were known by local authorities to be receiving home education as a result of parental choice, a fall of one (one per cent) from the previous year.
- The total number of children known to be educated at home due to parental choice, 706, represents 0.11 per cent of the population aged 5-15, an increase from 0.08 per cent in 2004/05. It is recognised that there may be more children educated outwith school who are not currently known to local authorities, and that changes in numbers known may be due to information management.
Pupil Projections
- The total number of pupils receiving publicly funded school education is projected to decrease steadily from 713 thousand in 2005, to 626 thousand in 2016, a decrease of 12 per cent, and then more slowly to 611 thousand in 2024.
- The number of pupils in publicly funded primary schools is projected to continue to fall steadily from 390 thousand in 2005, to 366 thousand in 2010, then remain fairly steady until 2014, before falling to 352 in 2019, followed by another period of stability.
- The number of pupils in publicly funded secondary schools is projected to decrease steadily from 316 thousand in 2005 to 265 thousand in 2015, a decrease of 16 per cent, and then remain fairly steady until 2020, before falling to 256 in 2024.
- The number of pupils in publicly funded special schools has been projected to fall in line with the anticipated decrease in the number of children of school age, but have also been adjusted to account for the potential impact of mainstreaming of pupils with additional support needs.
- Pupils numbers are projected to fall in both primary and secondary sectors in all local authorities by 2009. However, the rate of decline varies from 1.5 per cent (Angus) to 14.4 per cent (East Dunbartonshire) in primary and 0.4 per cent (East Renfrewshire) to 12.2 per cent (Aberdeen City) in secondary.
BACKGROUND NOTES
Children Educated Outwith Schools
1. This survey was run for the first time in Autumn 2001. Local authorities provided details of all children who were educated outwith school at any point during the school year, whether out of necessity (Section 14 of the Education (Scotland) Act 1980) or by parental choice (Section 30). The survey replaced and extended the previous survey of pupils educated outwith school ( SC4) which provided only a snapshot picture of Section 14 children during a given week in September. This year's results are therefore comparable with figures from 2000/01 onwards, but not comparable with earlier figures.
2. Following the Standards in Scotland's Schools etc. Act 2000 education authorities must make special arrangements for the education of children who are unable to attend school because of prolonged ill-health and exemptions caused by family illness. The Executive issued guidance to authorities on this duty in December 2001. Authorities may also make special arrangements for children who cannot attend because of extraordinary circumstances.
3. Section 30 of the Education (Scotland) Act 1980 states that parents have a duty to provide efficient education for their school age children which is suited to their age, ability and aptitude. They may do this by ensuring that their child attends a local authority school regularly, or by other means, including the provision of education at home. Children who receive education at home under Section 30 do so as a result of parental choice, and are distinct from those who, due to illness or exceptional circumstances, are unable to attend school.
4. Parents of children who have started to attend a local authority school must seek the LA's consent before withdrawing their child from school to educate them at home. LAs reported that they were aware of 580 such children who were educated at home in 2005/06. Parents of children who have never attended a local authority school are not required to seek the consent of their LA in order to educate them at home. LAs reported that they were aware of 126 such children, although there may be others. If LAs become aware of such children they have a responsibility to ensure that an efficient education is being provided.
5. In March 2004 the Scottish Executive published guidance for local authorities on the circumstances in which parents may choose to educate their children at home. The purpose of this guidance is to promote a consistency of approach across Scotland by setting out the legislative position, providing advice on the roles and responsibilities of education authorities and parents, and giving examples of good practice. The guidance is available on the Scottish Executive website at http://www.scotland.gov.uk/library5/education/gcech-00.asp .
6. The Scottish Executive launched a consultation on the home education guidance on 2nd November 2006. When the original guidance was published in 2004, a commitment was made to review how it was working after two years. The consultation seeks the views of all those involved in home education: home educating parents and prospective parents, local authorities and home education organisations. The consultation can be accessed on the web at www.scotland.gov.uk/consultations . The closing date for consultation responses is 14th February 2007.
Pupil number projections
7. Pupil projections are produced by the Scottish Executive for use in teacher workforce planning and for other policy developments. The modelling process uses information from:
a) Census of Pre-school Education Centres, 2006 and previous.
b) Pupil Census September 2005 and previous.
c) General Register Office for Scotland - mid-year population estimates up to 2004.
d) General Register Office for Scotland - 2004 based population projections.
Pre-school
8. The methodology employed in projecting numbers of children in pre-school centres uses the 2006 Pre-school Census pupil counts, split by age, and population projections. Figures used in these projections are headcounts.
Primary and Secondary
9. Firstly, the percentage of pupils of each age, in each sector, compared to the total number of children in the population was calculated.
10. Then, for a given cohort moving through the school, the participation rate for a given year was projected using the knowledge of the previous year's participation rate for that cohort, together with the average change in participation rates at that age. For example, if 98.2% of 6 year-olds were in mainstream primaries in 2005, and on average over the past four years the participation rate of 6 year-olds had increased 0.3 percentage points by the time they are 7, then the projected participation rate for 7 year-olds in 2006 would be 98.5%.
11. A similar methodology was used for 16 - 18 year olds, but some changes were made to avoid distortion due to leavers. The average change in participation rates were based on fewer years, so that more recent years were given greater weight. In addition, where the participation rate for 17 and 18 year-olds resulted in a lower participation rate than the average over 2003 to 2005, the average was used instead.
12. The participation rates for 19 year olds was calculated using the 4 year average rates for 2002-2005.
13. Participation rates for cohorts not yet in the system were calculated using four year average rates for 3, 4 and 5 year-olds, which are then projected forward using the same methodology as above.
14. The projections for pre-school and primary school age children are increasingly affected by predicted birth rates and unknown participation rates - this introduces a greater element of uncertainty.
Special Schools
15. Pupil numbers in special schools are projected using age-specific participation rates. The lower estimate from the Audit Scotland/ HMIE publication Moving to Mainstream has then been used, phased in over 7 years, to adjust the figures to account for the potential impact of mainstreaming of pupils, arising from section 15 of the Standards in Scotland's Schools etc. Act 2000. These have been subtracted from the special school figures and added to primary and secondary schools in proportion to the primary/secondary ratio in mainstream pupil numbers
Independent Schools
16. Following trends in recent years, the number of pupils in independent schools has been projected to remain constant. Projections for publicly funded schools have then been reduced to account for the resulting slight decrease in the proportion of the population in publicly funded schools.
Local authority projections
17. The same methodology has been used to produce local authority projections up to 2009. These are used in the allocation of funding to local authorities, to minimise the effect of changing populations over the period of funding settlement. No adjustments have been made to LA projections for the effect of mainstreaming or of changes in the proportion in the independent sector.
18. Local authority projections will not sum to Scotland level projections as they are modelled separately. The Scotland totals also include grant aided schools and the effect of mainstreaming and the independent sector.
19. Charts 3 and 4 show the percentage decrease of primary and secondary pupils by local authority between 2005 and 2009. The range of pupil loss across the local authorities was split into four equal sections to make the categories in each chart. For example, in primary the range of 12.8 percentage points was split into four categories of 3.2 percentage points each. The key shows the actual ranges for the local authorities in each category.
General
20. This is a National Statistics publication. National Statistics are produced to high professional standards set out in the National Statistics Code of Practice. They undergo regular quality assurance reviews to ensure that they meet customer needs. They are produced free from any political interference.
21. All projections are rounded separately and so may appear not to sum to their total.
22. This report was edited by: Mal Cooke, Paula Lopez, Carrie Graham and Colin Gallacher.
23. All tables are available on the Scottish Executive website at http://www.scotland.gov.uk/stats/bulletins/00541
Enquiries
24. Public enquiries (non-media) about the information contained in this statistical publication notice should be addressed to Mal Cooke, Statistician, Scottish Executive Education Department, Area 1-B, Victoria Quay, Edinburgh EH6 6QQ.
Telephone 0131 244 1689 or e-mail school.stats@scotland.gsi.gov.uk .
25. Media enquiries about the information in this statistical publication notice should be addressed to:
Sarah Cuthbert-Kerr: 0131 244 2972
Statistical Publication Notice
13th November 2006
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