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RECONVICTIONS OF OFFENDERS DISCHARGED FROM CUSTODY OR GIVEN NON-CUSTODIAL SENTENCES IN 2002/03, SCOTLAND

Justice Department

Introduction

This statistics release presents information on the two year reconviction rates for all offenders who were released from custody or who were given non-custodial sentences in 2002/03. The rates are shown by the age and sex of offenders; by sentence type and the main crime for which they were convicted; by their previous conviction history; and by geographical area. The corresponding rates for the offender cohorts from 1995/96 are also presented for comparison. Reconviction statistics are published every two years in a statistical bulletin, and this statistics release provides an interim update between the 2005 and 2007 bulletins.

Chart 1: Percentage of offenders reconvicted within two years of release from custody or sentence in 2002/03 by number of previous convictions

Characteristics of the 2002/03 cohort

The analysis presented in this release relates to a total of 44,848 individual offenders for whom convictions data are recorded on the Scottish Offenders Index, and who were either discharged from a custodial sentence in 2002/03 (5,984 offenders), or who received a non-custodial sentence in 2002/03 (38,864 offenders). Of this cohort, 84 per cent were male; 25 per cent were aged under 21; over half were originally convicted of a violent crime (25 per cent) or a crime of dishonesty (26 per cent); 32 per cent had no previous convictions while 17 per cent had over 10; and 76 per cent had no previous custodial convictions while 4 per cent had over 10.

Reconviction rates by age and gender

Of the 44,848 offenders in the 2002/03 cohort, 23 per cent were reconvicted within six months, 33 per cent within one year and 45 per cent within two years. The proportion of offenders with a custodial reconviction was 7 per cent within six months rising to 15 per cent after two years.

Males were more likely to be reconvicted than females for all age groups: 47 per cent of males were reconvicted within two years compared to 37 per cent of females. Males (16 per cent) were twice as likely as females (8 per cent) to receive a custodial reconviction within two years. However, for those persons who are reconvicted at least once within two years, there was little difference between the sexes in the average number of reconvictions they acquired.

Reconviction rates decreased by age: 54 per cent of under 21 year olds were reconvicted within two years compared to 35 per cent of those aged over 30. This is reflected in the trend for males where the rate of reconviction also decreases by age. However, the relationship between age and reconviction for females in this cohort is more complicated, with those females aged 21 to 30 the most likely to be reconvicted.

Table 1: Persons released from a custodial sentence or given a non-custodial sentence in 2002/03
Percentage reconvicted within 6 months to 2 years, by sex, age and average number of reconvictions within two years

1. Average for offenders who had at least one reconviction within two years.

Reconviction rates by number and type of previous convictions

The likelihood of reconviction increased markedly with the number of previous convictions held by the offender. 76 per cent of those offenders with over 10 previous convictions were reconvicted within two years, compared with only 26 per cent of offenders with no previous convictions. Similarly, 66 per cent of those offenders with over 10 previous custodial convictions were given a further custodial conviction within two years, compared to 7 per cent of those with no previous custodial convictions.

For those offenders who had at least one reconviction within two years, the average number of reconvictions rose steadily from 2.1 for those with no previous convictions to 3.4 for those with over 10 previous convictions. The length of time to reconviction is also likely to be shorter for offenders with higher numbers of previous convictions. Forty-five per cent of offenders with over 10 previous convictions are reconvicted within 6 months compared to less than 30 per cent for all other groups. This is further illustrated by Chart 1 in the introduction which shows the reconviction rates in each month of the first two years following the offender's index conviction (defined below). The reconviction rates for offenders with over 10 previous convictions are significantly higher than the other groups from month 1.

Table 2: Persons released from a custodial sentence or given a non-custodial sentence in 2002/03
Percentage reconvicted within 6 months to 2 years by number and type of previous convictions ⁽¹⁾ and average number of reconvictions within 2 years

1. Convictions since start of 1989.
2. Convictions resulting in probation or community service.
3. Average for offenders who had at least one reconviction within two years.

Reconviction rates by index disposal and index crime

For each offender in the 2002/03 cohort, their index conviction is defined to be the conviction which resulted in a non-custodial sentence being imposed, or the one which had originally led to a custodial sentence being served. The offender's index disposal and index crime refer to the type of sentence imposed and the main offence for which the offender was convicted in the index conviction.

Those offenders with a sexual index crime had the lowest reconviction rate on average (reconvictions for any crime or offence included in the Scottish Offenders Index - see Notes). 17 per cent were reconvicted within two years, although this is based on a particularly small number of offenders. Those with a crime of dishonesty as their index crime had the highest reconviction rate (58 per cent reconvicted within two years).

Those offenders who were discharged from a custodial sentence (64 per cent) or given probation (63 per cent), were on average more likely to be reconvicted within two years than those given community service (42 per cent) or a monetary penalty (41 per cent). Offenders discharged from custody were also much more likely to acquire a custodial reconviction: over two-fifths (45 per cent) were given a further custodial sentence within two years compared to just over 1 in 10 (11 per cent) of those given a non-custodial sentence. Of those offenders with at least one reconviction within two years, those who were discharged from custody (3.3) or given probation (3.1) have a greater number of reconvictions on average than those given community service (2.3) or a monetary penalty (2.3).

The comparison of reconviction rates across disposals is complicated by a number of issues such as pseudo reconvictions, which can have a differential effect across different types of disposal. The effect of pseudo reconvictions is discussed in a later section of this release. The characteristics of offenders receiving different disposals are also likely to be different and, indeed, the risk of re-offending is often taken into account at the time of sentence. Once the age, sex and number of previous convictions of offenders are taken into account, the differences observed in average reconviction rates for different types of index disposal are found to be less significant. In particular, the number of previous convictions tends to be the dominant factor in terms of the likelihood of reconviction.

Table 3: Persons released from a custodial sentence or given a non-custodial sentence in 2002/03
Percentage reconvicted within 6 months to 2 years by index disposal, index crime and average number of reconvictions within 2 years

1. Average for offenders who had at least one reconviction within two years.

Changes in reconviction rates over time

The analysis in this section compares two year reconviction rates for the 2002/03 cohort of offenders with those for the corresponding cohorts from 1995/96 onwards. When considering trends over time in reconviction rates, it should be borne in mind that these will be affected by changes in criminal justice policy and practice. For example, an increase in police clear up rates will, other things being equal, tend to increase reconviction rates. It is important to note that reconviction rates may also be affected by the characteristics of each cohort group ( e.g. age, sex, index crime, index disposal etc). This analysis is based on unadjusted reconviction rates which do not take the characteristics of offenders and changes in criminal justice policy into account.

Table 4: Persons released from a custodial sentence or given a non-custodial sentence, 1995/96 to 2002/03
Percentage reconvicted within 2 years by sex and age

Over the period 1995/96 to 2002/03, the overall two year reconviction rate fell marginally from 45 per cent to 42 percent in 1998/99 and then increased to 45 per cent in 2002/03. This trend was driven by the reconviction rate for males. The reconviction rate for females steadily increased from 33 per cent in 1995/96 to 37 per cent in 2002/03, driven by increases in the reconviction rates for those females aged 21 to 30.

Table 5: Persons released from a custodial sentence or given a non-custodial sentence, 1995/96 to 2002/03
Percentage reconvicted within 2 years by number and type of previous convictions in the preceding four years

1. Convictions resulting in probation or community service.

Table 5 shows the two year reconviction rate by the number and type of previous convictions in the four years preceding the offender's index conviction. This differs from Table 2 which presented reconviction rates for the 2002/03 cohort of offenders by the number of previous convictions since 1989. Considering previous convictions over this fixed four year period allows these rates to be compared over time.

The reconviction rate by number of previous convictions in the four years preceding the index conviction follows the overall trend, decreasing between 1995/96 and 1998/99 and then increasing to 2002/03. Of the 2002/03 cohort, 27 per cent of those with no previous convictions in the preceding four years were reconvicted within 2 years, rising to 89 per cent for those with over 10 previous convictions in this period.

Table 6: Persons released from a custodial sentence or given a non-custodial sentence, 1995/96 to 2002/03
Percentage reconvicted within 2 years by index disposal and index crime

For those with an index disposal of community service, the reconviction rate fell from 49 per cent for the 1995/96 cohort to 42 per cent for the 2002/03 cohort. The corresponding rates for custodial and probationary index disposals fell by 4 percentage points and 5 percentage points respectively between 1995/96 and 1999/2000 but subsequently increased by 3 and 4 percentage points respectively to 2002/03.

The two year reconviction rate by index crime follows a similar pattern to the overall rate, decreasing between 1995/96 and 1999/2000 followed by an increase to 2002/03. The exception is the reconviction rate for an index crime of dishonesty which has steadily increased over the period, from 49 per cent in 1995/96 to 58 per cent in 2002/03.

Table 7: Persons released from a custodial sentence or given a non-custodial sentence, 1995/96 to 2002/03
Percentage with a custodial reconviction within 2 years by sex and age

The two year custodial reconviction rate increased slightly between 1995/96 and 2002/03 from 14 per cent to 15 per cent. The rate for female offenders in particular increased from 5 per cent to 8 per cent in this period. Custodial reconvictions for under 21 year olds decreased from 18 per cent to 16 per cent but increased for all other age groups.

Geographic analysis

The analysis in this section compares two year reconviction rates for the 2002/03 cohort of offenders across approximate local authority and community justice authority areas, based on the court of the offender's index conviction.

Table 8: Persons released from a custodial sentence or given a non-custodial sentence, 2002/03
Percentage reconvicted within 6 months to 2 years by approximate community justice authority and local authority areas ⁽¹⁾

1. Approximate areas are based on the court of the offender's index conviction. Some Sheriff Court boundaries include more than one local authority area.
2. Aberdeen City and Aberdeenshire (Aberdeen, Banff, Stonehaven and Peterhead Sheriff Courts).
3. City of Edinburgh and Midlothian (Edinburgh Sheriff Court).
4. Parts of East Dunbartonshire and Argyll & Bute are also served by Glasgow Sheriff Court as well as the Sheriff Courts in North Strathclyde. However, since this analysis is based on an approximation of court areas, East Dunbartonshire and Argyll & Bute have been included with North Strathclyde whilst Glasgow Sheriff Court is included with Glasgow CJA area.
5. Renfrewshire and East Renfrewshire (Paisley Sheriff Court).
6. North and South Lanarkshire (Airdrie, Hamilton and Lanark Sheriff Courts).
7. East, North and South Ayrshire (Kilmarnock and Ayr Sheriff Courts).
8. Includes the Stipendiary Magistrates court.
9. Includes High Court and Remit to High.

The highest two year reconviction rate is for offenders whose index conviction was heard at a court in the Fife and Forth Valley community justice authority ( CJA) area, almost half (48 per cent) of such offenders were reconvicted within two years. The highest local authority ( LA) reconviction rates were for offenders whose index conviction was heard by courts in Clackmannanshire (53 per cent reconvicted within 2 years), Falkirk (52 per cent), Dundee City (50 per cent) and Inverclyde (50 per cent). Similarly, the lowest reconviction rates are for offenders whose index conviction was heard at a court in the Orkney Islands local authority (24 per cent reconvicted within 2 years) or in the Lothian & Borders CJA (41 per cent reconvicted within 2 years). Whilst this approach provides a useful approximation to local authority and community justice authority areas, it is important to note that an offender may not always be supervised in the area in which they are convicted and subsequent reconvictions may have occurred in different areas. The characteristics of offenders are also likely to vary across these areas.

The effect of pseudo reconvictions

Pseudo reconvictions are defined to be convictions which occur after the relevant date of the index conviction (the sentence date for non-custodial sentences or the estimated date of discharge from custody for custodial sentences) but which relate to offence(s) committed prior to that date. This can arise, for example, in cases where there may be several sets of proceedings in train against an individual for offences committed on a range of dates. Pseudo reconvictions will therefore exaggerate the rate of "real" reconvictions to some extent and the impact of this exaggeration will vary for different disposal and offender types.

The Scottish Offenders Index does not currently contain information on offence dates and therefore the extent of pseudo reconvictions remains an unknown quantity. Unless otherwise specified, all reconviction rates quoted in this release include pseudo reconvictions and this should be kept in mind when making comparisons between the reconviction rates for different types of disposal and offender.

However, it is possible to estimate the impact of pseudo reconvictions by making use of the fact that the police case reference numbers associated with most convictions recorded in Strathclyde Police Force Area, and increasingly in other police force areas, contain information which can be used to derive a proxy for the date of offence. This proxy offence date for a reconviction can then be compared with the relevant date of the index conviction to determine whether or not it is a pseudo reconviction.

For 35,064 (78 per cent) of the cohort of offenders with an index conviction in 2002/03, offence dates for their convictions can be derived in the way described above. The profile of this subset (sex, age, index disposal, index crime and number of previous convictions) does not vary greatly from that of the cohort as a whole. It features slightly higher proportions of offenders who are male; whose index disposal was a probation order; and whose index crime was breach of the peace or drugs offences. Similarly it features slightly lower proportions of offenders whose index crime was violence or dishonesty; and who had no previous convictions. However, in all of these cases the difference in proportion is only around one percentage point and therefore these marginal differences are not judged to bias significantly this approach to estimating the effect of pseudo reconvictions.

One quarter of this subset of the 2002/03 cohort of offenders were reconvicted within two years for offences committed prior to the relevant date of their index conviction, i.e. had at least one pseudo reconviction within this period. However, 60 per cent of these offenders also had "real" reconvictions, i.e. in respect of offences committed after the relevant date of their index conviction. The overall two year reconviction rate for this subset of the cohort was 46 per cent (slightly higher than the 45 per cent for the 2002/03 cohort as a whole). However, excluding pseudo reconvictions gives a "real" reconviction rate of 36 per cent. The average estimated effect of pseudo reconvictions is therefore 10 percentage points.

As reconviction rates vary with type of crime, age and other factors, so does the effect of pseudo reconvictions. In general, those groups of offenders who tend to have higher reconviction rates also have higher rates of pseudo reconvictions, though the effect of these is generally offset by higher rates of "real" reconvictions. The estimated effect of pseudo reconvictions on the reconviction rates for those discharged from a custodial sentence in 2002/03 was 9 percentage points; for offenders whose index conviction involved community service or probation the effect was 11 and 13 percentage points respectively. This will partly reflect the fact that the follow up time for reconvictions for the former group is taken from their estimated date of release from custody rather than the date that they were originally sentenced to custody. Offenders released from custody, particularly those who have served relatively long sentences, might be expected to have fewer subsequent pseudo reconvictions.

The estimated effect of pseudo reconvictions ranged from 3 percentage points for those whose index crime was a sexual crime to 12 percentage points for those with an index crime of dishonesty. Similarly the estimated effect ranged from 7 per cent for those with no previous convictions to 13 per cent for those with 3 to 10. The estimated effect of pseudo reconvictions has remained stable at around 10 per cent for each of the cohorts over the past five years where offence dates can be estimated.

Table 9: Persons released from a custodial sentence or given a non-custodial sentence, 2002/03
Percentage reconvicted within two years and estimated effect of pseudo reconvictions

1. Offenders for whom the month and year of the offence(s) they are convicted for can be proxied by information embedded in the associated police case reference number
2. Convictions since the start of 1989.
3. Convictions resulting in probation or community service.

Notes on the statistics

The information presented is based on data held in the Scottish Offenders Index ( SOI). This database, which is in turn derived from information held on the police operational computer at the Scottish Criminal Records Office ( SCRO), currently contains a record for each set of criminal proceedings against individuals (excluding companies) in Scottish courts. The data covers all convictions where sentence was imposed in the period 1 ^st January 1989 to 31 ^st March 2005 and the main offence involved was a crime in Groups 1-5 of the Scottish Executive Justice Department's classification of crimes and offences or the offences of simple assault, breach of the peace, petty assault on an emergency worker, anti-social behaviour offences, racially aggravated harassment or conduct, miscellaneous firearms offences and social security offences.

Each record on the SOI database includes information on the sex and age of the offender, the dates of conviction and sentence, the main offence involved and details of the sentence imposed. Information is also available on any offences which were additional to the main offence involved. Each offender has a unique reference number, which allows individual convictions for that offender to be linked together. It should be noted that the SOI is a purely statistical database; names and other personal information of offenders are not held.

The methodology used to produce this analysis of reconvictions remains the same as that in the statistical bulletin 'Reconvictions of offenders discharged from custody or given non-custodial sentences in 1999, Scotland' and full details can be accessed from that report at: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/stats/bulletins/00424

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