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CHAPTER TWO: THE NEED FOR RAS AND ITS ROLE

INTRODUCTION

2.1 This chapter provides the background to RAS, in the context of the Fresh Talent Initiative. It examines:

• the need for a service like RAS in Scotland;
• RAS's aims and objectives; and
• services RAS provides.

THE NEED FOR A SERVICE LIKE RAS

2.2 RAS has been developed against a backdrop of:

• an expanding Scottish labour market;
• a declining and ageing Scottish population; and
• Scottish Executive policy to encourage people to relocate to Scotland.

2.3 Each of these factors contribute towards the need for a service like RAS - they can be viewed as a rationale for the service. Each factor is explored in more detail below, along with the implications for the Scottish economy.

The expanding Scottish labour market

2.4 The labour market in Scotland is expanding. Between 1998 and 2003, total employment in Scotland rose by 6.3% ². Projections suggest that employment growth is likely to continue. With an ageing population, retirement is likely to be a significant issue, with new employees required to replace the current workforce (in 2004, 16.3% of the adult Scottish population was over 65, up from 15.6% in 1998 ³). This presents a picture of rising employment but a lower proportion of the population of working-age. There is therefore a potential employment gap that may need to be filled. Expanding sectors of the economy include banking and finance and health, where labour market gaps currently look likely to arise, especially for skilled workers.

2.5 The expanding labour market has started to attract overseas workers. Around one in ten employees working in Scotland just now are not British or Irish ⁴ and nearly 29,000 people moved to Scotland from outside the UK during the year 2000 alone ⁵.

2.6 In Scotland, there are also around 9,400 overseas postgraduate students (of which only one-third come from the EU), 12,000 overseas undergraduate students (of which more than half are from the EU) and over 2,600 Further Education ( FE) overseas students. Higher Education ( HE) overseas students are concentrated in courses such as business studies, computer science, electronic and electrical engineering, finance and management studies and English. If these students are retained, they may be able to help to fill some of the labour market gaps that look set to appear in the Scottish economy, but they will only be able to provide a partial answer to this problem given that they currently number not many more than 20,000.

Scotland's declining population

2.7 Recent GROS (General Register Office for Scotland) mid-year population figures indicate that the Scottish population has fallen from 5,081,270 in 1990 to 5,078,400 in 2004 (a fall of 0.1%), at a time when the Great Britain population rose by 4.5%. Current estimates suggest that the population will rise slightly, peaking at 5.1 million in 2019, before falling below 5 million in 2036.

2.8 Briggs (2005), in summarising the results of the report from GROS, based on a study of 2001 Census, highlights the following.

• Just under 29,000 people came to Scotland from outside the UK in 2000, of which some 25% were Scot-born and 62% were aged 16-34 (80% in Glasgow and Dundee). Of the 3,099 moving from Australia, 40% were born in Scotland.
• The majority of immigrants arrived in Scotland from the USA, Australia, Canada, South Africa, Spain and Ireland, although there were also significant numbers from China, Holland, France, Germany and New Zealand.
• Within Scotland, Orkney, Shetland and the Western Isles continued to lose population (a decrease of 1% in 2000), whereas Edinburgh had the largest population gain (1,110)
• Those who emigrated from Scotland continued to be the young: there was a loss of 1,500 people aged between 16-24 and of 1,200 aged 25-34 to other parts of the UK
• Scotland had a net loss to London of about 900 people in 2001, mainly from Glasgow, Edinburgh and Aberdeen.

2.9 Recent figures indicate that Scottish population actually rose in 2004, an increase of 21,000 on the previous year and of 23,600 on 2002. Population rose because of a positive net migration, whereas the birth rate continued to be lower than the death rate. In 2004, Scotland recorded its largest inward migration in more than 50 years, with 62,000 people coming from the rest of the UK and 36,300 from overseas (Briggs and Fraser, 2005). Aberdeenshire, Edinburgh and Clackmannanshire were the council areas with the largest population increases, while Aberdeen City, Dundee and Inverclyde recorded the largest falls. Glasgow recorded an increase of 580 people.

2.10 However, although these figures are encouraging for the Scottish Executive, there is the possibility that they are a fluctuation on a general downward trend - in some years during the late 1980s and early 1990s, Scotland also experienced net in-migration but this was not sustained.

Potential interest in moving to Scotland

2.11 Estimates for people in RAS target groups range from 137,000 non EU students who annually come to the UK to 2,300 Scottish businesses that actively seek to recruit overseas. (Figure 2.1). (Further details are at Appendix G).

Figure 2.1. Summary of key target groups

Source:HESA Student Record 2002-03, Futureskills Scotland and DTZ Pieda Consulting

2.12 There is likely to be significant interest in moving to Scotland by workers from the East European Countries. Since EU enlargement on 1st May 2004, 24,000 people from the EU's new East European member countries have signed up with the UK Government's worker registration scheme. Most are from Poland (59%), followed by Lithuania (17%) and Slovakia (8%). ⁶

2.13 There are also some 3,500 refugees living in Scotland's communities. ⁷ Two-thirds of the refugees that responded to a survey carried by Home Office in 2004 were working before leaving their country of origin, one in ten were students and less than 5% were unemployed and looking for employment. However, a recent survey, based on 400 refugees, found that refugee unemployment was 36%, six times the national average (Bloch 2002).

Implications

2.14 An ageing society and a declining population is likely to limit the long-term growth prospects of the Scottish economy. The first consequence of a declining population is a potential loss in human capital, which is a key source of value added, innovation and economic growth. For enterprises based in Scotland, a diminishing supply of workers may mean difficulties in recruiting and retaining staff or an increasing numbers of vacancies and skills shortages in a number of occupations.

2.15 This is some evidence that skill shortages are already emerging in a number of sectors. For example, Fileds (2004) claims that the Scottish hotel sector is facing difficulties in attracting and retaining staff and some other sectors, such as engineering, claim that they are seeking immigrant workers to help to fill a range of skills gaps within the industry (McGill, 2005). The public sector is also likely to face recruitment difficulties, primarily in recruiting teachers, social workers, nurses and doctors.

2.16 At the same time, there can be a greater pressure on public services, used more heavily by older people in Scotland, such as health, social care and residential services. Additionally, if the ratio of working persons to dependents (retirees and children) worsens this has implications for tax revenues and, therefore, the level of public service delivery.

2.17 Scotland's RAS is one strand of the Scottish Executive's Fresh Talent Initiative. This Initiative encourages people to consider coming to live, study and work in Scotland. It was formally introduced by a statement in the Scottish Parliament by First Minister Jack McConnell on February 25 2004, when he laid out the actions needed to be taken to address Scotland's population decline and support Scotland's continuing economic prosperity. ⁸

2.18 The publication New Scots: Attracting Fresh Talent to Meet the Challenge of Growth⁹ sets out how the Scottish government intends to operate a scheme of managed migration. It identified four strategic objectives for Fresh Talent.

i. Promoting Scotland as a place to live and work.
ii. Promoting Scotland as a destination for people applying for UK work permits.
iii. Encouraging students at Scottish universities to stay in Scotland.
iv. Improving first impressions of Scotland.

2.19 The report, Scotland is the Place: Building the Best Small Country in the World sets out progress in the first year. ¹⁰

2.20 As well as RAS, the Fresh Talent Initiative involves measures such as those outlined below.

• The Scottish Executive and Home Office have agreed a new scheme called the Fresh Talent Working in Scotland Scheme, which was launched in June 2005. This scheme provides non European Union citizens who studied at and graduated from Scottish universities and colleges with an opportunity to apply to live and work in Scotland for up to two years following graduation without needing a work permit.
• Funding for 22 scholarships for students from overseas who want to study for a Masters degree in Scotland. The Scottish International Scholarship Programme started in 2005/06 with nine scholarships for students from China, six for Indian scholarships and two each for students from South Africa, Australia, and Singapore as well as one for a student from New Zealand.
• Funding for Scottish Networks International over 2006-2009 to provide a total of 20 work placements and enhance the experience of a further 200 overseas postgraduates.
• A new Challenge Fund to support and provide practical help to international students choosing to study in Scotland. The fund supports events and activities, such as host family programmes, receptions, seminars and shadowing schemes that allow international students to meet local employers and agencies.
• Extensive promotional activity at both home and abroad, including visits to fairs in China, India, Singapore, Malaysia and Poland and related media interviews and articles.
• Dare to be Digital - funding was given to sponsor scholarship places for students from Asia to attend a 10 week summer programme promoted by University of Abertay in the summer of 2005. The programme gave high-flying students in computer sciences or computer arts the chance to develop a computer game or similar concept into a marketable product.
• Encouraging Dynamic Global Entrepreneurs ( EDGE) - funding towards learning materials and cultural programme for US students participating in the EDGE programme. This pilot programme, which ran during summer 2005, brought together US and Scottish students with Scottish school pupils and businesses to encourage entrepreneurship. The programme is being led by Scottish Enterprise Dunbartonshire, which has linked up with Columbia University, the University of Glasgow, schools in the Argyll and Bute, East Dunbartonshire and West Dunbartonshire local authority areas, Business Gateway Dunbartonshire and Dunbartonshire Chamber of Commerce. A total of 48 young people were involved in the project (16 Columbia University undergraduates, 16 University of Glasgow undergraduates and 16 5 ^th year Dunbartonshire schools pupils).

AIMS AND OBJECTIVES OF RAS

2.21 The Executive established RAS in October 2004 under the first Fresh Talent strategic objective - promoting Scotland as a place to live and work. It was set up for three years as a pilot service (October 2004-October 2007) and was created to establish a one-stop shop information and advisory service for people interested in moving to Scotland.

2.22 The broad aim of RAS is to support the in-migration of bright, talented and hard working people who can make a positive contribution to the Scottish economy and society. Specifically, the service advises on living, working and studying in Scotland and provides information on a wide range of issues such as jobs, accommodation, visas, work permits and educational opportunities.

2.23 A number of organisations in Scotland have roles to play in encouraging in-migration of students, workers, entrepreneurs and employers ( Appendix C). RAS has a unique role in assisting a wide range of people interested in relocating to Scotland. Through its links with the business community, local authorities and other relevant agencies, RAS aims to provide a seamless referral service to partner organisations in Scotland and in the rest of the UK, where appropriate. For example, RAS has no authority to approve visa or work permit applications and will refer such enquiries to the Home Office or UKVisa. RAS can provide general advice to individuals, but specific questions about the view or decision that the Home Office will take have to be referred to the Home Office. ¹¹

2.24 As well as providing information and advice services, RAS engages in marketing work to both promote Scotland and the services of RAS. For example, RAS staff have attended fairs in India, China, Singapore, Malaysia and Hong Kong as well as many locations in Scotland. Information on the RAS has been passed to Scottish universities and further education colleges. Leaflets have been distributed to British Embassies and British Council offices across the world.

2.25 RAS has five key target groups:

• students;
• people seeking employment;
• entrepreneurs and the self-employed;
• Scottish businesses looking to recruit overseas; and
• expatriate Scots looking to return home.

2.26 RAS provides demand led information and advice and does not seek to monitor and address particular shortages in the Scottish labour market.

2.27 RAS started its operations in October 2004. For most of its first year of operation RAS has had a team of seven permanent members of staff. During its first year, RAS has developed pages on the generic Fresh Talent website http://www.scotlandistheplace.com/¹² and recruited and trained staff to provide direct advice and information and to refer customers, as appropriate, to other agencies and organisations.

SERVICES RAS PROVIDED

2.28 In its first year RAS was largely a service that responded to requests for advice and information from those living outwith Scotland who were interested in working or studying in Scotland. Interactions with these customers was mainly through email and telephone calls, with a small number of face to face interviews. This was the main initial expectation that it was required to meet.

2.29 RAS is a developing service. RAS staff have attended seminars and fairs to make larger groups of people aware of its service. Such events have in the main been very well attended. RAS is proactively promoting its services. For instance an article in the Hindustani Times was produced by working with the Marketing Team within the Fresh Talent Initiative and engaging with journalists from abroad. To promote itself to students, RAS has also been contacting student magazines, providing help lines and attending student fairs overseas. Further developments of the service are under active consideration.

2.30 Other organisations in Scotland do have roles to play in encouraging skilled workers, entrepreneurs, employers and students to come to Scotland. These are summarised in Appendix C. RAS has to work with these other services, but it has a unique role in assisting a wide range of people interested in relocating to Scotland.

Broad comparisons with other countries

2.31 Other countries and regions also seek to attract skilled workers and students. At a national level, two of the most successful examples of in-migration services are Australia and Quebec (Canada). At a sub-regional level, two interesting examples are the Italian province of Arezzo and the Swedish municipality of Stromsund.

2.32 The services provided in each of these places have some common characteristics with RAS. In particular RAS offers broadly similar services to those offered in Quebec, Australia and Sweden in terms of the tools used to provide advice: a web site containing information on what people need to know if they are to move, study, work and live in the new country and the possibility of interacting, via email, telephone or face to face, with advisers on in migration issues. Details of the services provided are at Appendix E.

2.33 RAS, however, differs significantly from these other services in a number of ways:

• Size of service. In other countries, sizeable departments or divisions are responsible for immigration and attracting key workers and students. RAS is a very small service in comparison.
• Targeting skilled workers . Countries such as Australia and Canada target specific groups of workers in a much more explicit and focused way. For example, the Quebecker and Australian migration programmes specify a number of criteria that potential migrants need to satisfy if they wish to move to Quebec or Australia, including age range, level of English language ability, level of skills, and submission of a business plan for those who want to set up a new business. Potential immigrants to Quebec are also asked to complete a preliminary evaluation form, in order to obtain, directly, online a free summary evaluation of their chances of being selected. This means that the types of workers that these countries are looking for are prioritised and receive a much more focused and tailored service.
• Targeting and marketing priority sectors. The Quebecker portal highlights where there are current skill shortages in specific sectors, primarily (in 2005) in information technologies, telecommunications, biotechnology and aeronautics. This allows workers in these sectors to know at an early stage of their investigations into relocating that they may have specific skills that the countries are looking for.
• The immigration system and rules . In Australia, bespoke visas are issued for specific categories of worker (e.g. nurses, for which there is a high demand in the national labour market) and in Canada additional points are given to those people who are willing to migrate to more remote areas. What Scotland can do in this regard is much more limited as immigration matters are the concern of the UK Government.
• Age of service. The advisory and information services in these countries have all been long established and have developed and grown to meet the needs of the countries themselves as well as the people they are trying to attract. This has allowed them to produce well-rounded and focused services. In contrast, RAS is a forming service that has been around for only one year.

SUMMARY

2.34 There is a clear rationale for RAS - a declining and ageing Scottish population, an expanding labour market and an Executive commitment to encourage the in-migration of people who can contribute to Scotland's economy and society.

2.35 RAS's main objective is to provide a one stop advice and information service for those seeking to live and work in Scotland.

2.36 RAS's scope is similar in some respects with in migration services in other countries. It offers advice and information to potential in migrants through web links, e-mail, letter and face-to-face meetings and it undertakes some proactive promotional activity.

2.37 It is also different from services elsewhere. It is a new service, it is relatively small in scale and it does not target specific sectors or skills.

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