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Future Prospects for Fish Stocks and Markets
The different sectors of the industry all face different prospects and each individual business in the industry faces different circumstances. In overall terms we expect that, relatively tight quota restrictions will continue to be necessary to produce a more sustainable and well-managed industry in the short to medium term, but in the longer term, we would expect policies of moderate fishing pressure on stocks to lead to a better balance between fishing capacity and opportunities. Markets for fish products are good and increasing, with prices being paid to catchers are up on previous years. The horizon scanning exercise will produce more detailed information but from what we know now we can say that the prospects for our main sectors are:
Pelagic: mackerel and herring stocks are currently both being fished at moderate levels to maximise long term yields. Mackerel TACs are expected to remain stable over the next few years, but there are serious concerns over herring recruitment in the North Sea, and short and medium term quota cuts will be needed to ensure the ongoing health of that fishery. The price achieved for mackerel and, to a lesser extent, herring have risen significantly on previous years.
Shellfish:Nephrops and scallops are healthy and being fished moderately, but there is concern that recovering whitefish stocks could predate on Nephrops. There may be a need to take steps to keep effort in line with the resource for some stocks and to take steps to secure the environmental reputation of the sector. Economic returns this year appear healthy. The Inshore Fisheries Groups will have an important role to play in future years in the management of these and other shellfish stocks.
Whitefish: sustainability is secure in haddock, the mainstay of the whitefish fleet, but short to medium term quota restrictions are necessary to enable the stock to re-build from previous hard fishing, resulting in difficulties in the whitefish catching and processing sector. Our level of knowledge about monkfish, the second most important Scottish whitefish species is still improving; prudent quotas remain necessary but they need to take account of the fact that it is widely caught in our mixed fisheries. Cod is a depleted stock and subject to a recovery programme that restricts days at sea for almost all Scottish demersal fishing. Overall, buoyant prices mean that, despite increasing costs, short term economic prospects for the whitefish catching sector are relatively encouraging. This is, however, not the case for whitefish processors who face pressures arising from these same prices and raw material supply patterns. There are also problems in those sections of the catching sector that fish for deep water species.
There are in addition two important actions which cut across all three themes.
Independent accreditation is of growing importance in fisheries as in other sectors. Retailers are increasingly being required to demonstrate their sustainability credentials, leading them to source more fish from accredited sources. This is potentially an important opportunity for the sector to capitalise in the market place on good stock management and good governance, including on the steps being taken under this action plan. However it may be that it will only be relevant in certain markets. It will also be important that, in deciding whether to pursue accreditation for particular fisheries, catchers and processors are fully aware of the potential implications, in particular the likely costs incurred in the supply chain and potential benefits. It will also be important to be clear how accreditation will complement the regulatory requirements of the Common Fisheries Policy( CFP), helping it to deliver sustainability in every fishery it covers.
In the next six months:
SEERAD, Seafish, Catchers, Processors and Environmental Interests will explore sustainability accreditation, looking in particular at costs and benefits for the whole supply chain, linkages with the CFP and other regulatory frameworks, the accreditation process and the potential to give recognition to progress towards sustainability.
SEERAD Catchers and Processors will explore whether sectors of the Scottish industry might be suitable candidates for pre-assessment under Marine Stewartship Council ( MSC) certification and, where appropriate, convene fisheries specific meetings involving MSC.
SEERAD will support any applications for sustainability accreditation by ensuring that certifying bodies are fully aware of the progress that the Scottish sector is making under this action plan and by giving favourable consideration to applications for support under FIFG in respect of sustainability accreditation.
All will promote the Seafish Responsible Fishing scheme, both in its own right and as a stepping stone to accreditation. While recognising that the current seafish scheme does not address sustainability in a fishery, SEERAD will discuss with Seafish and the MSC how to ensure that the Seafish scheme and MSC accreditation are mutually reinforcing in the Scottish context.
In the next 18 months:
SEERAD will work with the other UK Fishing Administrations to ensure that agreement is reached on EU eco-labelling standards which ensure that any emerging eco-labels are appropriate to Scottish circumstances.
SEERAD, Catchers, Processors and Environmental Interests will, working with retailers, take stock in the light of the initial applications as to the appropriateness of MSC for Scottish fisheries and engage with MSC to ensure that its principles and criteria continue to allow the Scottish sea fishing sector to capitalise on progress being made under this action plan.
Horizon scanning to map out the medium to long term directions for both catchers and processor will be undertaken . All have a role to play in bringing together the key data which will allow the sector to plan ahead in the face of uncertainty. A brief summary of what we know now about stocks and prices is on page 5. To develop this further we need to look at the main drivers of profitability in the industry including the balance of fishing opportunity with capacity and fuel prices, and assess the main directions of change, risks, threats and opportunities for the industry in each case. This may identify additional actions, either at an individual level or industry-wide, that need to be taken forward alongside the commitments in this plan.
In the next six months, SEERAD will organise a workshop to bring together scientists, economists and industry to make a start on this exercise.
During the next three years, SEERAD will ensure that economic modelling at Seafish is compared on a regular basis with fish stock prediction tools being developed by FRS.
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