26 July 2006
A Scottish Executive National Statistics Publication
NEXT PUBLISHED (Provisionally): 25 th October 2006
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GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT FOR THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2006
Gross Domestic Product in Scotland rose by 1.9 per cent over the year to the end of 2006 Q1 and grew by 0.5 per cent during the first quarter of 2006 according to provisional estimates released today by the Scottish Executive.
The main findings of the latest figures are:
- GDP rose by 1.9 per cent over the year to the end of 2006 Q1 and grew by 0.5 per cent over the first quarter of 2006 (seasonally adjusted).
- Over the year to the end of 2006 Q1, annual output in the Scottish service sector grew by 2.9 per cent, compared with a 2.1 per cent decrease in the production sector and a 3.1 per cent rise in construction.
- In the first quarter of 2006, the service sector grew by 0.4 per cent, the construction sector rose by 3.6 per cent and the production sector grew by 0.1 per cent.
- The UK figures show that GDP rose by 1.9 per cent over the year to the end of 2006 Q1 and by 0.7 per cent over the latest quarter.
- Over the year to the end of 2006 Q1, the UK experienced a 2.9 per cent growth in services, a 1.7 per cent decline in production and 0.4 per cent growth in construction.
- Over the latest quarter, the service sector grew by 0.4 per cent. Within this sector the real estate and business services (1.1%) sector was the main driver of the quarterly increase, followed by retail and wholesale (1.6%), financial services (1.8%), and public admin, education and health (0.3%).Three industries within the service sector declined in the latest quarter, these were: hotels and catering (-1.4%), other services (-2.3%) and transport (-0.8%).
Output in the production sector grew by 0.1 per cent over the quarter. Within production, the mining & quarrying and electricity, gas & water supply industries fell by 0.4 per cent and 1.7 per cent respectively. This was offset by growth in the manufacturing sector of 0.4 per cent.
- Within manufacturing the main sectors driving the quarterly growth were transport equipment (5.2%), other manufacturing (2.2%) and mechanical engineering (3.3%). The main industry showing a decline over the quarter is paper, printing and publishing (-2.5%).
List of Tables
Table 1: Gross Value Added Chained Volume Measures at Basic Prices, by Category of Output
Table 2: Gross Value Added Chained Volume Measures at Basic Prices, by Category of Output
Table 3: Gross Value Added Chained Volume Measures at Basic Prices: Service Industries
Table 4: Gross Value Added Chained Volume Measures at Basic Prices: Detailed Service Industries
Table 5: Gross Value Added Chained Volume Measures at Basic Prices: Production Industries
Table 6: Gross Value Added Chained Volume Measures at Basic Prices:Detailed Production Industries
Table 7: Gross Value Added Chained Volume Measures at Basic Prices, by Category of Output
Table 8: Revisions to Data Published on 26 April 2006 (Table 2)
Table 9: Revisions to Data Published on 26 April 2006 (Table 3)
Table 10: Revisions to Data Published on 26 April 2006 (Table 4)
Table 11: Revisions to Data Published on 26 April 2006 (Table 5)
Table 12: Revisions to Data Published on 26 April 2006 (Table 6)
Table 13: Revisions to Data Published on 26 April 2006 (Table 7)
1. Gross Domestic Product ( GDP) is a measure of the value of goods and services produced by residents, before allowing for depreciation or capital consumption. Net receipts from interest, profits and dividends abroad are excluded. The estimates produced in this publication measure GDP at basic prices (also referred to as gross value added ( GVA)).
2. In February 2004, on publication of results for 2003 Q3, the Scottish GDP estimates moved to annually weighted and chained estimates of volume measures - referred to as "annual chainlinking" - as recommended in the System of National Accounts 1993. This is consistent with the UK where this approach was introduced on 30 September 2003 in respect of the 2003 Q2 results. Annual chainlinking is achieved by producing a weighted average of over 260 separate indices (160 of which are in the production sector). The indices represent changes in the value added, at constant prices, in the production of goods and services in individual industries. These industries are compiled using the standard industrial classification SIC2003.
3. The main difference between chainlinking and the previous "fixed base" methodology is that the weights applied to each industry (reflecting their importance to the Scottish economy) are updated on an annual basis, instead of a 5-yearly basis. The major effect of chainlinking has been to more accurately reflect the changing importance of sectors. The weights were updated to 2002 in October 2005 in line with the annual chainlinking methodology. Examined in isolation, the effect of applying the new weights to the overall GDP index was negligible. There was a slight negative effect on production and construction growth rates and almost no effect upon services with the result of a very slight reduction in overall GDP growth from 2002 onward. An article providing more information about the chainlinking methodology was published in Scottish Economic Statistics 2004 available at www.scotland.gov.uk/stats/ses.
4. Series are derived from indicators based on data from a wide range of sources. Examples include: deflated turnover, deflated production, the volume of a good or service sold or produced and, for some parts of the public sector, employee numbers.
5. The quarterly Scottish GDP estimates are published within 4 months (approximately 17 weeks) of the end of the quarter to which they relate.
6. The indices published within this Statistics Publication Notice are grouped according to the 2003 revised Standard Industrial Classification. The four broad groupings of industries are
(a) agriculture, hunting, forestry and fishing
(b) production which comprises: mining and quarrying industries; energy and water supply; and manufacturing, which includes: refined petroleum products and nuclear fuel; chemical and man-made fibres; metal and metal products; engineering and allied industries; food, drink and tobacco industries; textiles, footwear, leather and clothing; other manufacturing.
(d) services, which includes: retail and wholesale; hotels and catering; transport, storage and communication; financial services; real estate and business services; public administration, education and health; other services.
7. Scottish GDP estimates will generally be less reliable than the estimates for the UK, primarily because the equivalent UK figures are produced by balancing 3 independent sets of estimates (Output ( GVA), Income & Expenditure-based approaches). Furthermore, the survey data tend to be based on smaller numbers of units, making figures for Scotland more likely to be subject to small random fluctuations.
Cash Estimates of GVA
8. Estimates of the cash value of gross value added ( GVA) at current prices for Scotland (and other regions of the UK) are produced by the Office for National Statistics. Estimates for 2004 were published on 21st December 2005. The ONS current price value estimates are methodologically different from the Scottish Executive volume (constant price) index and are based on different data sources.
9. The figures in this Statistics Publication Notice incorporate revisions to previously published estimates. Tables 8 - 13 identify the extent of revisions since the last publication in April 2005. Revisions are shown to one decimal place for total GVA and GVA excluding oil & gas and to zero decimal places for all other sectors.
Revisions are minimal this quarter, and are mainly due to revisions to input data and changes in the seasonal patterns in some sectors.
10. National Statistics are produced to high professional standards set out in the National Statistics Code of Practice. They undergo regular quality assurance reviews to ensure that they meet customer needs. They are produced free from any political interference.
11. Detailed results for all industries are available to download from the Scottish Executive website www.scotland.gov.uk/gdp.
Office of the Chief Economic Adviser
Office of the Permanent Secretary
St Andrew's House
Press Office: Angela-Claire Coutts 0141-244-2547
Statistician: Andrew Mortimer 0131-244-3771