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Chapter Nine Conclusions and policy considerations

Introduction

9.1. The research reported here has used the Scottish Household Survey data, Census data, transport modelling techniques and focus group research to investigate the patterns and prevalence of long distance commuting in Scotland. In this chapter we draw together conclusions from the research and consider the implications for Scottish Executive transport policy and strategies.

9.2. In the 2004 Transport White Paper, 'Scotland's Transport Future', the Scottish Executive indicated the long term policy objectives which include:

• to reduce the growth of in road traffic volumes/ reduce traffic congestion
• to reduce noise pollution
• to reduce air pollution
• to promote bus and rail travel

9.3. Reducing the number of car driving long distance commuters may be an effective way of achieving some, or all, of these aims and the possible links are explored in this chapter. The conclusions and policy considerations associated with the various aspects of long distance commuting are now considered under the following headings:

• stabilising traffic levels
• environmental impacts
• public transport
• policies to discourage people from commuting long distances by car
• road pricing
• park and ride
• green travel plans (and car sharing and working from home)
• land-use planning and long distance commuting
• the nature of long distance commuting

Stabilising traffic levels

9.4. A key Scottish Executive policy objective is reducing the growth rate of traffic volumes and reducing congestion levels. The White Paper (2004), 'Scotland's Transport Future' states:

"We are striving to stabilise road traffic volumes at 2001 levels by 2021. If traffic levels continue to rise, then congestion, increased journey times and reduced reliability will continue to act as constraints on the economy. Historically, growth in the economy is accompanied by growth in traffic volumes. We need to break that link without hampering economic performance. Not all road use contributes to economic growth; some has a negative impact."

9.5. The current research considered the contribution of long distance commuting to traffic volumes and impacts on congestion. The highest absolute volumes of long distance commuting traffic are on the key trunk road routes (M8, M9/A9, Forth Road Bridge, M77/A77, M80, A92 etc). This links with two key observations:

• the timing of the main period of expansion of long distance commuting (pre 1991 Census)
• the construction of the core links in the trunk road network in the 1980s

9.6. Whilst the proportion of long distance commuting vehicles relative to other vehicles tends to be fairly low (often less than 20%) within the main urban areas, inter-urban routes and key trunk roads have significant percentages (often exceeding 50%) of AM Peak traffic made up of long distance commuter vehicles. Clearly these vehicles have a significant impact on the trunk road network. If, for example, all long distance car commuters were removed from the road network, modelling indicates that the average speed on all Scottish motorways would increase by 7km/hr. In addition, significant increases (often exceeding 50%) in AM Peak vehicle speed would be achieved within Edinburgh, Glasgow and Aberdeen city centres and on the Forth Road Bridge.

9.7. 'Scotland's Transport Future' (2004) indicates that improvement in public transport provision will have a positive effect in achieving road traffic reduction, but road pricing and other measures may hold a greater prospect of changing the pattern of road use. However, the research has shown that the long distance commuter is more likely to consider themselves to be car dependent than others and so measures aimed to discourage car use may be less effective in changing the behaviour of this group.

9.8. Generally, the data sources (Census, NTS Scotland and SHS data) indicate growth in long distance commuting in the 80's and early 90's, levelling off recently. Forecasts for the next 10 years (from TMfS) show only a small growth (0.3% per year) in the proportion of car long distance commuters, as a percentage of total car trips. However, this still implies a significant absolute growth, since total car trips are forecast to increase significantly over this period. In addition, the focus group discussions reported here suggest that most current long distance commuters are not planning to reduce their commuting distance, implying that achieving significant commuter journey-length reductions would be difficult.

Environmental impacts

9.9. 'Scotland's Transport Future' (2004) indicates the importance of tackling climate change and working to meet both the UK targets of reducing 1990 levels of greenhouse gas emissions by 12.5% by 2008-2012 and of reducing UK carbon dioxide emissions to 20% below 1990 levels by 2010. Beyond this, there is an objective to put the UK on a path to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by some 60% by around 2050.

9.10. 'Scotland's Transport Future' (2004) further highlights that emissions from motor vehicles are the largest single cause of local air pollution in Scotland. Poor air quality has a negative impact on people's health and can also affect the quality, and damage the competitiveness, of town and city centres. A number of primary or secondary pollutants linked to vehicles, such as nitrogen dioxide and particulates ( e.g.PM10s), can have a negative impact on respiratory health.

9.11. Our research has indicated that the impact of completely removing long distance car commuters from the Scottish AM peak road network on vehicle emissions (if this was possible) would be a 34% decrease in Carbon Monoxide ( CO) emissions from traffic; a 27% decrease in Hydrocarbons ( HC) emissions; a 13% decrease in the emissions of various oxides of Nitrogen (denoted NOX); a 10% decrease in the emissions of PM10 particulates and a 21% decrease in the amount of Carbon Dioxide ( CO2) emitted by traffic during this period.

9.12. While it is not possible or desirable to completely remove all long distance commuting car trips, these values show the levels of vehicle emissions associated with this type of journey.

Public transport

9.13. 'Scotland's Transport Future' (2004) emphasised the need for a higher priority for public transport:

"Perhaps the biggest challenge we face is changing attitudes to transport choices where such choices exist. The car need not always be the automatic choice…………Service improvements are making a difference but we have to work harder at changing perceptions and encourage more people to choose public transport."

9.14. For long distance commuters there has been a trend towards greater reliance on the car for travel to work. Comparison of the Census 1991 and 2001 indicates that car (driver or passenger) mode share for long distance commuting car increased from 77% to 79% over this period. This hides a bigger increase (from 66% to 71%) in the proportion of car drivers (and hence the number of cars) over this period. For public transport, rail mode share has also increased slightly (from 6% to 7%) over this period, but long distance bus mode share has decreased significantly (12% to 8%).

9.15. The SHS (February 1999 to March 2005) shows that long distance car commuters (37%) were significantly less likely to claim to have the option of using public transport when compared to short distance car commuters (49%). Our analysis of SHS data indicated that long distance car commuters who live and/or work outside urban areas are the least likely to have a public transport option available.

9.16. Findings from the current research indicate that train is preferred over the bus for long commutes. SHS data indicates that 56% of train commuters travel further than 15km to work. In contrast, only 18% of bus commuters travel further than 15km. Focus group discussions suggest long distance commuters would choose rail as the first alternative to car, but for many this would require significant enhancements to the services and possibly a reduction in the relative level of fares.

9.17. 'Scotland's Transport Future' (2004) states that there will be considerable enhancements to the Scottish rail network, creating capacity for the future. 'Scotland's Transport Future' (2004) also indicates the need for new trains, longer trains and longer platforms and indicates that by 2007 there will be lengthened platforms across the busiest commuter routes including the Fife Circle and East Kilbride to Glasgow Central routes. In addition, preparations are under way for various major new rail projects, including Stirling-Alloa-Kincardine, Borders railway, Airdrie-Bathgate, Glasgow and Edinburgh Airport rail links and the expansion and upgrade of Waverley Station.

9.18. It is not clear whether these measures, and others in a similar vein, will lead to a switch of modes by existing car users, or simply encourage an increasing number of people to travel further by public transport.

Policies to discourage people from commuting long distances by car

9.19. An earlier 'Mode Choice' Topic Report (Connolly and Barker 2004) provides details of the measures which might encourage people to use public transport in preference to cars. This highlights some key points:

• it is generally the difference (or ratio) in the overall 'cost' of the journey by different modes which is the primary influence on choice. This gap can be changed by either increasing the 'cost' of private transport or reducing the cost of public transport
• the most effective measures for influencing choice in favour of public transport are those which directly increase the cost of the car journey (eg parking charges and/or limited availability, and tolls)
• the car to public transport mode-shift effects tend to be greatest when the public transport already offers a realistic alternative to the car in terms of overall journey time and frequency of service - i.e. it is not cost-effective to improve 'no-hope' PT services

9.20. The research reported here suggests that generally only direct rail services compete well with car for long distance commuters. and a high proportion of current long-distance commuters do not believe they have an acceptable public transport alternative.

9.21. These conclusions are important in considering the place of long distance commuting by car. There are at least three broad types of long distance commuter- those who have grown up in an area (including those native to rural and remote areas) and who need to travel some distance to find suitable employment, those who have chosen to move to a more-attractive ( e.g. rural) location some distance from their work and those who have recently changed jobs but have not yet made the corresponding change to their home location.

9.22. A policy which has a significant impact on choice of mode for long distance commuting is likely to be indiscriminate in its impact on these various groups. This has potentially serious implications for rural policy as simply increasing the cost of travel may result in lower levels of economic activity in such areas.

9.23. Initial consideration of this research might suggest that the 'long distance car commuter' is the 'villain', causing congestion and pollution, particularly on the trunk road network. However, it is also clear that it is often more difficult to offer acceptable non-car alternatives to these long distance commuters. It may therefore be more cost-effective to target other shorter-distance car commuter road users (who are more likely to have an acceptable public transport and walking/cycling alternatives).

Road pricing

9.24. Road pricing is a policy measure which would increase the direct cost of driving through increased use of tolls and congestion charges. In the context of long distance commuting, distance based charging schemes could be used to discourage long distance car commuting. However, charging schemes may be more effective in targeting the short distance car commuter by combining a significant flat-charge with a distance based charging scheme (ie similar to the pricing mechanism of a taxi fare). Note also that care should be taken to ensure that realistic public transport alternatives exist for the majority of motorists who face the charge.

9.25. Given the recent ' NO' vote on Edinburgh's proposal for a local congestion charging scheme and the time and money required to develop a workable 'national' congestion charging scheme, such schemes are unlikely to be introduced in the near future:

Park and ride

9.26. Park and Ride is a transport option which, through encouraging use of public transport for a significant part of a journey and providing a 'seamless' journey for the travelling public, fits in well with Government objectives for integrated and sustainable transport. Car has long been a significant means of access to the rail network, but bus-based Park and Ride is an increasingly frequent feature of the transport landscape in Scotland, with various operational bus-based park and Ride schemes implemented over the past ten years. The focus group research reported here suggests that long distance commuters would consider a bus-based Park and Ride option, especially on congested routes into city centres.

9.27. Park and Ride in its many guises provides a key option in the policy tool kit for connecting dispersed origins with a more concentrated employment centre. The research suggests that this is a topic for further exploration at a local level in areas where there are high levels of long distance car based commuting along congested corridors, but where there is little chance of providing realistic levels of public transport from the 'home' end of the journey. In practice, many of the existing 'rail' commuting journeys in the SHS and Census Travel to Work datasets will probably be 'car plus rail' journeys.

Sustainable travel plans, car sharing and working from home

9.28. The White Paper (2004) indicates that the Scottish Executive would like to see an increase in the number of organisations developing Travel Plans ( TP). TPs usually cover how well a location is served by public transport, the availability of car parking, car-sharing, how cyclists are catered for and issues such as broadband technology making home-working a more viable option. The White Paper (2004) suggests that TPs have the potential to make a difference in the way that people commute and road traffic growth can be constrained locally by using TPs in organisations that generate traffic.

9.29. Our findings suggest that the proportion of car sharing amongst long distance commuters is decreasing. Between 1991 and 2001 the car-driver mode share for long-distance commuters increased from 66% to 71% while the corresponding mode share for car passengers decreased from 11% to 8%. TPs that encourage car sharing (giving 'car sharers' priority for limited parking spaces) may help reverse this trend.

9.30. Findings from the focus group research indicated that car sharing was a viable option for some participants and some had car shared in the past. However, the focus group research indicated that car sharing may not be an easy option for long distance commuters as the nature of their home and work locations mean that they are unlikely to live near someone who works in the same location (especially for those working at small companies). It may be that this applies more to those from remote rural areas than those from accessible rural areas.

9.31. 'Scotland's Transport Future' (2004) indicated the aim to encourage more home working, and broadband technology now helps make home working a viable option. A small number of participants in the focus groups worked from home occasionally, others would like to have the option to do so if their employers allowed it. However, there were a number of perceived disadvantages to working from home such as the lack of 'face-to-face' contact, particularly amongst people who had responsibility for managing others.

Land-use planning and long distance commuting

9.32. In the classic theories underlying land use planning, commuting distance is determined by residential and workplace location - if there is a considerable mismatch between employment opportunities and housing availability commuting distances increase. This general understanding must now be questioned, with some key trends affecting this simple model:

• the increasing specialisation of employment, even in relatively unskilled occupations
• the ease of travel
• the wide variations in the cost of housing - particularly in parts of central Scotland
• the concentration of employment into larger sites, necessarily distant from some homes
• the rise in the proportion of households with two or more workers, each with specialist skills
• the concentration of other activities - so that travel is needed as part of life, of which travel to work is just a part

9.33. All these changes lead to people travelling further to find work, and to employers looking for increasingly large geographic catchment areas from which to draw skilled labour. It is not clear that simply co-locating employment and housing will necessarily reduce commuting distances, particularly longer distance commuting. Even in the classic city there is separation of home and work.

9.34. 'Scotland's Transport Future' (2004) indicates that land use planning policies should be structured to reduce the need to travel; create the right conditions for greater use of sustainable modes and restrict the adverse environmental impacts of travel to work. The analysis carried out on the SHS data for this report does not provide much encouragement that such policies will make a significant difference:

• the major growth in long distance commuting, particularly by car, appears to have followed the major expansion of the motorway and trunk road network - the transport infrastructure allowed people to travel further with ease
• much of the long distance commuting is from rural and remote areas into centres of employment. It seems unlikely that the jobs accessed in this way will move quickly to the rural fringes to avoid the need for travel
• much of the reasoning behind moves to commuting longer distances are social rather than infrastructure based

The nature of long distance commuting

9.35. Using Scottish Household Survey data, we considered explanatory variables influencing the likelihood of commuting further than 15km. Our findings suggest the following factors are associated with a long commute:

• living in a rural area
• car availability
• being male in full time employment and in a professional / managerial and technical occupations

9.36. Our analysis suggested a significant gender difference in commuting distances. Even when variables such as income, car availability and number of children are taken into account females commute shorter distance than males.

9.37. The nature of factors associated with long distance commuting can be considered under the following headings; economic, demographic, social and cultural.

9.38. Focus group findings suggest that economic factors associated with long distance commuters include:

• people are making long-term location choices to be able to access a wide range of jobs and services
• jobs are less secure and people are less willing to move simply to reduce the cost and convenience of getting to any one job
• jobs have become increasingly specialised making them harder to fill with local people
• families do not necessarily relocate to the workplace of the main worker
• high property prices in Scottish cities often prevent people living closer to their work

9.39. Demographic factors associated with long distance commuting include migration patterns where people move out of larger towns and cities. Several of our focus group participants stressed the importance of living in a rural location.

9.40. Cultural trends indicate that many people have become accustomed to looking for work further from home and focus group findings suggest that long distance commuters may be resigned to their situation and regard a long commute as a 'fact of life'.

9.41. The focus group research indicated Social factors associated with long distance commuting such as living near family and friends ( e.g. partner's requirements and looking after elderly parents). A 'sense of community' was also highlighted as important. This side of long distance commuting is particularly relevant for 'native' populations in rural and remote areas choosing to travel to the nearest large employment centre for work, rather than relocating there.

9.42. The literature suggests (eg Maher 2004) that despite the numerous disadvantages of long distance commuting (eg fuel cost, environmental impacts, traffic congestion, 'wasted' time etc) there are considerable positive effects for families and communities. Long distance commuting enables workers to take advantage of lower property prices away from the city centre and provides economic links between urban centres and surrounding areas enabling workers to take advantage of low density housing, good schools, rural locations and/or low crime rates often found outside urban areas.

9.43. The most effective policy measure may be those that encourage existing long distance commuters to commute in more sustainable ways. Investment in the rail network, park and ride sites and car sharing schemes and encouraging home working may offer the greatest prospects of reducing car long distance commuting.

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