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Appendix 2: Choice of Geographic Areas for NEET Targeting
1. To help identify geographic areas for targeting NEET the following indicators were looked at:
- Proportion NEET - taken from the 2001 Census
- Proportion not entering education, training or employment on leaving school - School Leavers Destination 2003/04
- Benefit claimants per 1,000 population - DWP data
- Attendance rate - Education Department data
- Exclusion rate - Education Department data
- Proportion with tariff score below 50 - Education Department data
2. The relationships between the proportion NEET and the other 5 indicators were investigated to ensure that these indicators would be good indicators to determine any geographic areas to target. All 5 of the indicators were found to be significant predictors of NEET.
3. It should be noted that there is strong evidence that educational attainment is linked to NEET. However, due to the nature of tariff scores it is not appropriate to use this measure for this purpose. 1 This is caused by the fact that although a lot of the NEET population have a low tariff score, having a low tariff score does not accurately predict whether you become NEET. It should also be noted that tariff scores are fairly strongly correlated with exclusion and attendance rates and as these are still included they should represent the educational attainment aspect.
4. As the 5 indicators are different measures and are on different scales it was decided to standardise each indicator. This standardisation produces scores for the 32 Local Authority areas for each indicator (a positive score indicates worse than the Scottish average and a negative score indicates better than the Scottish average). An average of these indicators was taken and the Local Authorities were then ranked based on this average score.
5. After creating these average scores it was agreed that some of these 5 indicators were more directly related to NEET than the others. For this reason it was agreed that a weighting system should be used. After looking at the different indicators it was agreed that NEET scores would be given a relative weighting of 3, the destinations and benefits data would be given a relative weighting of 2 and the exclusion and attendance data would be given a relative weighting of 1. The top seven areas identified using the weighted measure are Glasgow City, North Ayrshire, Dundee City, East Ayrshire, West Dunbartonshire, Clackmannanshire and Inverclyde. Table 1 shows the ranks for the Local Authority areas.
6. Table 2 overleaf, provides details of the performance on each indicator by Local Authority area.
1 R2 value of 0.35. Other indicators had R2 values of over 0.59 except the destinations which had an R2 value of 0.45
Table 1: Local Authority Ranking
| Rank |
|---|
Glasgow City | 1 |
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North Ayrshire | 2 |
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Dundee City | 3 |
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East Ayrshire | 4 |
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West Dunbartonshire | 5 |
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Clackmannanshire | 6 |
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Inverclyde | 7 |
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North Lanarkshire | 8 |
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West Lothian | 9 |
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Falkirk | 10 |
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South Ayrshire | 11 |
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Renfrewshire | 12 |
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Fife | 13 |
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South Lanarkshire | 14 |
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Dumfries & Galloway | 15 |
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East Lothian | 16 |
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Angus | 17 |
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Aberdeen City | 18 |
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Edinburgh, City of | 19 |
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Midlothian | 20 |
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Highland | 21 |
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Moray | 22 |
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Perth & Kinross | 23 |
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Scottish Borders | 24 |
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Argyll & Bute | 25 |
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Stirling | 26 |
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Aberdeenshire | 27 |
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East Renfrewshire | 28 |
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East Dunbartonshire | 29 |
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Orkney Islands | 30 |
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Eilean Siar | 31 |
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Shetland Islands | 32 |
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Table 2: Summary of Indicators for Geographic Choice
Local Authority Area | % NEET1 | Destinations 2 | Benefits 3 | Attendance 4 | Exclusions 5 |
|---|
Scotland | 13.2% | 20 | 82.9 | 90.2% | 53 |
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Aberdeen City | 9.5% | 25 | 49.3 | 91.8% | 41 |
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Aberdeenshire | 8.7% | 16 | 52.9 | 93.5% | 26 |
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Angus | 12.9% | 14 | 77.8 | 91.6% | 42 |
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Argyll & Bute | 10.5% | 14 | 36.0 | 91.9% | 49 |
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Clackmannanshire | 16.9% | 25 | 73.5 | 88.3% | 46 |
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Dumfries & Galloway | 14.9% | 15 | 71.4 | 92.2% | 36 |
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Dundee City | 14.2% | 22 | 116.2 | 88.0% | 97 |
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East Ayrshire | 16.4% | 22 | 90.3 | 89.0% | 80 |
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East Dunbartonshire | 6.9% | 12 | 17.5 | 91.4% | 32 |
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East Lothian | 13.0% | 19 | 54.8 | 91.7% | 35 |
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East Renfrewshire | 6.5% | 19 | 15.8 | 93.9% | 14 |
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Edinburgh, City of | 9.8% | 19 | 64.8 | 90.3% | 37 |
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Eilean Siar | 9.3% | 7 | - | 91.2% | 6 |
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Falkirk | 14.6% | 26 | 65.6 | 89.0% | 48 |
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Fife | 13.8% | 20 | 80.5 | 90.8% | 63 |
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Glasgow City | 19.1% | 30 | 108.1 | 86.3% | 95 |
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Highland | 11.8% | 16 | 41.4 | 90.8% | 25 |
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Inverclyde | 15.1% | 22 | 106.1 | 89.9% | 69 |
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Midlothian | 11.7% | 14 | 55.9 | 90.5% | 45 |
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Moray | 12.2% | 16 | 29.2 | 92.3% | 32 |
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North Ayrshire | 17.4% | 22 | 127.0 | 88.1% | 73 |
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North Lanarkshire | 15.5% | 25 | 69.6 | 88.4% | 67 |
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Orkney Islands | 7.9% | 14 | - | 93.5% | 17 |
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Perth & Kinross | 9.4% | 17 | 43.7 | 90.9% | 37 |
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Renfrewshire | 12.6% | 23 | 72.0 | 90.0% | 74 |
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Scottish Borders | 11.2% | 14 | 59.8 | 93.1% | 23 |
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Shetland Islands | 7.7% | 11 | - | 93.0% | 14 |
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South Ayrshire | 14.0% | 24 | 70.2 | 89.9% | 59 |
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South Lanarkshire | 12.9% | 17 | 91.8 | 89.3% | 56 |
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Stirling | 8.5% | 17 | 38.4 | 90.3% | 16 |
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West Dunbartonshire | 15.9% | 23 | 91.5 | 89.4% | 77 |
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West Lothian | 15.3% | 20 | 113.3 | 90.8% | 50 |
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1 Proportion NEET - taken from the 2001 Census
2 Proportion not entering education, training or employment on leaving school - School Leavers Destination 2003/4
3 Benefit claimants per 1,000 population - DWP data
4 Attendance rate - Education Department data
5 Exclusion rate - Education Department data
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