Introduction | The 2005 estimates of agricultural output, input and income for the UK are described in 'Agriculture in the United Kingdom 2005', published by The Stationery Office in March 2006 on behalf of the UK Agriculture departments. The Scottish estimates given in this report correspond to those in the combined UK publication. The aggregate income figures reflect the estimated value of outputs from and inputs to Scottish agriculture over the calendar year. Subsidy payments are also incorporated into output and income estimates on an accruals basis, i.e. they are shown in the year in which they became due to be paid. Normally this is the year in which the farmer carries out the production to which the subsidy relates. |
Commentary |
Aggregate | The 2005 estimates are provisional. They were calculated during November |
Results | 2005 - January 2006 and were based on the latest available information at the time. While information on outputs is largely complete, data on input figures tend to become available later, sometimes with significant delay. The forecasts are, therefore, subject to revision in the next Annual Review. The 2005 forecasts for Scottish agricultural output, input and income are shown in Table A1. Total Income From Farming ( TIFF) measures business profits plus income to workers with an entrepreneurial interest (farmers, partners, directors and their spouses, and most other family members who work on the farm). TIFF is estimated to decrease by around 8.4 per cent (£39.9 million) over last year, before inflation is taken into account. In real terms, this represents a fall of around 10.9 per cent. |
Farm Crops | Cereals (net of subsidies) have fallen by 10.9 per cent (£22.1 million). Average yields in 2005 were generally up on 2004 (up 0.8 per cent overall), though the area cropped decreased 5.5 per cent to 417,400 hectares contributing to a fall (of 4.8 per cent) in cereal production to 2.7 million tones. In addition, prices received for cereals have fallen by 6.3 per cent in 2005. |
Livestock and | Livestock and livestock products (net of subsidies) have fallen by 7.2 per cent |
Livestock | (£9.8 million). The value of finished cattle and calves has increased by |
Products | 6.4 per cent (£21.5 million). The value of finished sheep and lambs however has decreased 12.1 per cent (£17.8 million), due to a drop in slaughtering and a 7.4 per cent drop in the price per kg for finished sheep. Capital formation of livestock has increased by 11.7 per cent (£7.8 million). Reflecting a 22.5 per cent increase in withdrawal price of sheep, which is the difference between sheep entering and leaving the flock. Lower prices in the first half of the year have contributed to a fall of 1.3 per cent (£3.4 million) in the value of milk and milk products. |
Payments | Total level of payments and subsidies has remained similar in 2005 at £536.0 million. A number of subsidy schemes directly linked to the production of specific product, for example the Arable Area Payments Scheme, the Sheep Annual Premium Scheme and several Cattle subsidy schemes, ceased with effect from 2004. The Single Farm Payment ( SFP), which was introduced in 2005 was valued at £398.1 million. The SFP total has been estimated taking account of EU and National modulation. |
Inputs | There have been increases and decreases in input items in 2005 with an overall decrease of 0.2 per cent (£2.1 million). Fuel and oil costs increased 23 per cent (£11.4 million). Fertilisers and lime increased by 4.0 per cent (£5.1 million) due to higher prices. Other expenses, which includes farm car fuel, licences insurance increased by 5.0 per cent (£1.1 million). Input cost that have fallen include leasing in of quotas which fell 98.7 per cent (£17.4 million), due largely to a 98.9 percent fall in the volume of milk leased in during the 2005/06 scheme year. Feedingstuff and seeds have also fallen. The value of interest paid has increased by 8.5 per cent (£7.8 million) reflecting both changes in interest rates during 2004 and 2005. |
Balance Sheet | Overall the total value of assets increased by £100 million to £14.4 billion. This is mainly due to an increase in the value of Land and Buildings and financial assets. Total liabilities are estimated to increase by £260 million to £2,150 million. The net worth of the industry (calculated by subtracting total liabilities from total assets) has decreased by 3 per cent to £12.2 billion from 2004 with the value of total assets at 85 per cent. |