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Chapter 4: How we will implement and monitor the strategy

IMPLEMENTATION

1 Our detailed plans for implementation will be set out in the published NTS. However, in general:

• Where we determine that an issue requires legislative change, we will do it at the next available opportunity, which is unlikely to be before 2007;
• Where we identify policies as requiring further analysis before a decision can be taken, we will develop detailed plans showing our timescale for that analysis and will publish these separately;
• Where we identify longer-term analysis or research needs, we will undertake that research or analysis and ensure that it is fed into future refreshes of the Strategy; and
• Where there are issues requiring substantial changes to the balance of investment this will be taken forward in the investment strategy, which will form the next step after the publication of the NTS itself.

CONSULTATION QUESTION 55.

What issues should be considered in implementing the NTS following its publication later in 2006?

2 We are undertaking a Strategic Environmental Assessment of this Strategy (being published separately).

3 We will also equality-proof the NTS. All involved in transport policy in Scotland at the national, regional and local level must ensure that when developing policy or making decisions about service delivery that full account has been taken of the six strands of equalities that the Scottish Executive is committed to mainstreaming:

• Race;
• Disability;
• Sex/Gender;
• Age;
• Sexual Orientation; and
• Faith or Religious Belief.

MONITORING: PROPOSALS FOR INDICATORS

4 The Strategy, once published, will set out a small number of performance indicators. The indicators will be grouped broadly around our transport goals and will allow open and accountable monitoring of the Strategy. They will be in areas where the Scottish Executive or delivery partners have influence over performance and where there are credible and consistent links with the key themes of the strategy.

5 We have chosen to focus on indicators rather than target setting, as it is our view that indicators are likely to give a better, more well-rounded picture of movement towards desired outcomes. However, the future of existing targets, and the potential for developing additional CO ₂ target(s) for transport are discussed later in this chapter.

6 The final set of indicators will depend on the content of the final NTS. However, a small number of potential indicators are suggested below, relating to each transport goal. There are clearly overlaps in some areas, and there will be a need for some indicators to reflect the differences between rural and urban Scotland.

Overall indicator

7 As indicated in earlier chapters, one major challenge for transport is breaking the link between economic growth and traffic growth. Therefore, an overall indicator could be developed to look at the traffic intensity of the economy²⁹ - in other words, how much transport there is compared with how much economic growth there is - and see by this means whether we are managing to grow the economy without growing traffic.

CONSULTATION QUESTION 56.

Do consultees consider that "traffic intensity" is likely to be a useful overall indicator of our success with the forthcoming NTS? If not, what alternative(s) would be preferable?

Indicator of the facilitation of economic growth

8 A potential indicator for this goal is connectivity to key markets - journey times between selected locations, both within Scotland and to rest of UK/international destinations. We would expect journey times to fall as a result of the Strategy.

Indicators of the promotion of accessibility

9 Indicators chosen for this goal will be particularly dependent on the policies chosen to implement the Strategy. However, some potential indicators for this goal are:

• Access to services (distinguishing between car owning and non car owning households and/or urban/rural area types); and
• (Perceived) accessibility of job opportunities.

10 Accessibility of services and job opportunities would be expected to increase as a result of policies implemented.

Indicators of the promotion of choice and the raising of awareness of the need for change

11 Travel awareness survey work has been taking place over the last three years and could provide a suitable baseline for measuring awareness of the need for change.

12 We recently commissioned research into the number of public sector travel plans in Scotland. Again, when finalised, this will provide a baseline from which progress could be measured.

Indicators of the promotion of modal shift

13 Policies to promote modal shift would be expected to result in a lower proportion of journeys being undertaken by car and higher vehicle occupancies for car journeys. The indicators suggested below are simple measures of these outcomes:

• Modal share for all journeys;
• Modal share for travel to work/school; and
• Average car occupancy for different types of journeys.

Indicators of the promotion of cleaner fuels and vehicles

14 The indicators suggested below for this objective relate to air quality and energy consumption/emissions from the transport sector:

• Levels of nitrogen dioxide and particulates measured at chosen sites;
• CO ₂ emissions allocated to Scotland/energy consumption, total for transport and by mode; and
• Emissions per vehicle kilometre, total for transport and by mode.

15 Levels of local air quality pollutants and energy consumption/emissions from transport and per vehicle kilometre would be expected to decrease (or grow at a lower rate) as a result of policies to promote cleaner fuels and vehicles.

Indicators of the management of demand

16 Indicators for this goal are suggested below:

• Time lost due to congestion on trunk roads/all roads; and
• Variability of travel time on trunk roads/all roads.

17 Both of these would be expected to fall as a result of measures implemented following the Strategy.

Indicators of the reduction of the need for travel

18 As with the accessibility objective, the choice of indicators here will be dependent on policies outlined in the Strategy. It is likely that further development of measures in this area will be required. One indicator may be modal shares of walking and cycling for journeys to/from new developments.

19 We would expect that as a result of the Strategy, over time, new developments would have improved access to transport services and that fewer journeys to and from new developments would be undertaken by car.

Targets for the promotion of road safety

20 Progress against our target for 40% reduction in all deaths and serious injuries on Scottish roads by 2010 and 50% reduction for children will measure our performance in this regard.

CONSULTATION QUESTION 57.

Are the indicators outlined for each transport goal useful? If not, what alternative(s) would be preferable?

MONITORING: EXISTING AND FUTURE TARGETS

Targets which will continue

21 The Executive has a number of existing targets for transport. Spending Review targets ³⁰ will remain in place and will be reviewed at the next Comprehensive Spending Review in 2007. Operational targets will continue to exist for Transport Scotland and delivery partners. The road safety targets, as indicated in the previous section, will be our main method of monitoring our delivery in this area.

Cycling level target

22 We currently have a target, from the UK National Cycle Strategy, to quadruple cycle use between 1996 and 2012. We remain committed to cycling as a sustainable, healthy mode of transport. However, trends suggest that cycling is not increasing at the level that would allow this target to be met, and it may be that local/regional target-setting is in any case more appropriate in influencing short journeys by bike. Accordingly, and in the light of the UK Government's move away from a single national target, we propose to review this target formally, and may seek to replace it with more local targets.

CONSULTATION QUESTION 58.

Are consultees content that the target of quadrupling cycle use should now be reviewed? What, if anything, might replace it (for example, local authority-level targets on the DfT model)?

Traffic stabilisation aspirational target

Background

23 In 2002, when we published Scotland's Transport: Delivering Improvements, our Transport Delivery Report ³¹, we noted that traffic volumes were predicted to grow by 27% by 2021 and said we would strive to stabilise road traffic (in vehicle kilometres) at 2001 levels by 2021. Since then traffic volumes have continued to grow, and by 2004 had risen by 6.5% since 2001.

24 Separately, local authorities are required to set and report to Scottish Ministers on road traffic reduction targets under the Road Traffic Reduction Act 1997, and Scottish Ministers are required to report to the Scottish Parliament on a national target under the Road Traffic Reduction (National Target) Act 1998. If no targets are to be formally set by local authorities or the Scottish Ministers, a report on why this is the case is required. Scottish Ministers have not to date made such a report to the Parliament and it would be the intention to fulfil this requirement in due course once the future of the national target is clear.

Nature of target

25 Traffic stabilisation is a high level Executive aspiration and not a full-scale target (so we do not, for example, publish regular progress reports on it). However, we have heard from environmental organisations and others (including the Parliament's Local Government and Transport and Environment and Rural Development Committees) that significant importance is attached to it by them.

26 Striving to stabilise road traffic is an indirect way of making progress towards two underlying objectives: first, to control the environmental damage done by road traffic, particularly in terms of CO ₂ emissions, and second, to maximise our economic potential by managing congestion on our roads.

Issues with the target

27 We face significant challenges in striving towards traffic stabilisation. As set out in Chapter 1, the trend is for substantial year-on-year increases, rather than stabilisation, in car use across the country, and this is projected to continue.

28 We commissioned research which, amongst other things, looked at the deliverability of this target ³². The research has identified that there are a range of specific problems attached to this target. We lack devolved powers over the financial measures - vehicle taxation, fuel tax - which would be most likely to suppress traffic growth. Even if these powers were devolved, though, we would have to think very carefully about the economic impact before making it sufficiently expensive to travel by car that traffic levels started to reduce.

29 Those measures which are devolved - promotion of and investment in public transport; control over the size and nature of the road and rail network - are significant, but without fiscal measures do not in themselves appear to be enough to stabilise road traffic volumes.

30 Significantly, the research also found that the traffic stabilisation target was an indirect and not very effective way of measuring progress towards either of our two underpinning goals of controlling CO ₂ emissions and controlling congestion. Traffic levels could go up but advances in technology or changes in the mix of vehicles on the road could potentially mean that CO ₂ emissions could go down. Similarly, traffic levels could go up overall, but congestion go down, if road space were managed more effectively.

31 This analysis does not detract from our general aims of tackling the environmental and congestion consequences of unchecked traffic growth and we will continue to implement measures towards these aims. However, it has been suggested by the research that has been done for us that it would be better to measure emissions and/or congestion directly, rather than through this indirect measure.

Next steps

32 Overall, the evidence from our projections is that this target is not going to be achieved, and indeed will be missed by a very significant margin; and that the Scottish Executive does not have the devolved power to achieve it, although investment in modal shift and cleaner fuels are areas where we will continue to develop our policies.

33 This raises the question of what should be done with the 2021 target itself. Our research suggests that it would be desirable to replace a traffic stabilisation target with one that more clearly reflects our environmental and anti-congestion goals.

34 Our view is that, while traffic stabilisation should remain an aspiration, the indicators that we choose to monitor our transport goal of modal shift should be the main means by which we determine progress.

35 However, we also propose to do the following:

• To address our environmental objective, consider what new transport sector-related target(s) of CO ₂ emissions could be put in place (see further below); and
• To address our economic objective, continue to monitor congestion on the trunk road network as at present ³³, and, following completion of the current research into congestion, consider what other measures may be required.

36 One suggestion, arising from the research, was that consideration should also be given to a move to regional traffic reduction targets in place of a national target. We are not immediately persuaded of the case for this, but would be interested in views from consultees on this point.

37 Over recent years, there has been ongoing pressure from various quarters, including the Parliament, to set interim milestones towards achievement of this target. This was a recommendation of the 2005 Report of the Scottish Parliament's Environment and Rural Development Committee into Climate Change ³⁴. We do not propose at this stage to introduce such interim milestones. With the ongoing increases in road traffic there is no meaningful "map" that we can draw showing how the 2021 target could be achieved. Therefore such milestones would either be themselves unachievable (and therefore meaningless) or would simply set out in detail how the target was to be missed. Neither seems likely to be a helpful addition to the debate.

CONSULTATION QUESTION 59.

Are there other measures which should be considered in Scotland which would move us towards the target to stabilise road traffic volumes at 2001 levels by 2021, recognising that significant fiscal measures would have to be agreed by the UK Government?

CONSULTATION QUESTION 60.

Do consultees agree with the proposals to:

• Continue to have stabilisation of road traffic as a high level aspiration;
• Use indicators measuring modal shift to measure how our modal shift policies are working; and
• Redirect our efforts more clearly at the environmental and congestion issues which underpin the traffic stabilisation aspiration, by:
  • Considering new transport-related target(s) for CO ₂ (see further below); and
  • Continuing to monitor congestion trends on our trunk roads, as at present, and considering what further measures might be required.

CONSULTATION QUESTION 61.

Do consultees have any views on the idea of a move to regional traffic reduction targets in place of a national target?

CONSULTATION QUESTION 62.

Given the difficulties with the national traffic stabilisation aspirational target, do consultees agree that realistic, deliverable milestones towards its delivery cannot be put in place at present?

New target(s) on climate change

38 We are committed to strengthening the contribution of key policy sectors to our efforts to tackle climate change in Scotland. This could relate to the sector as a whole (transport being one such sector), and/or for activities within a sector. The contribution for the transport sector has not yet been set, and analysis is required to identify the appropriate level(s) and the best way to achieve it or them. Such analysis will need to take account of areas in which the Executive has developed policy responsibility and the availability and adequacy of data.

39 Our view at present is that such contribution(s) are likely to be most relevant to our devolved competence if they seek to measure the impact on carbon emissions of the Executive's work in devolved areas. This would probably mean something other than a simple carbon reduction target for all transport.

CONSULTATION QUESTION 63.

Do consultees agree that setting a level of contribution for reductions in Scotland's CO ₂ emissions which are directly linked to the impact of our policies in areas which are devolved would be the best measure of the Scottish Executive's effectiveness in tackling transport emissions?

CONSULTATION QUESTION 64.

What specific reduction level(s) for CO ₂ should be put in place for transport?

REVIEWING THE NATIONAL TRANSPORT STRATEGY

40 After its publication, the National Transport Strategy will be subject to review by the Executive approximately every four years. Given that the strategy is expected to evolve over time, there will be two aspects to the process:

• To assess the progress of transport policy in meeting the aims, objectives and goals set out in the Strategy; and
• To review the National Transport Strategy itself. Specifically to:
  • Consider whether the strategy requires amending, as Scottish Ministers' priorities, understanding of transport issues, available resources and other circumstances may have changed significantly in four years; and
  • Recommend specific revisions to the strategy taking account of experience and of improved knowledge

CONSULTATION QUESTION 65.

Do consultees have any views about the timing or scope of reviews of the NTS?

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