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Chapter 1: Where we are now
Introduction: why transport matters
1 Our transport system exists, not as an end in itself, but because people need to get to jobs, school, shops and services and want to visit friends and relatives and enjoy their leisure activities; and because transport infrastructure is essential to businesses and a competitive economy.
2 Changes over time in how people and businesses behave have a major impact on our transport system and how it is used. For example, if more people choose to live on the outskirts of a city and commute in by car, there will be more cars on the roads than if they had chosen to live in the city near their workplace.
3 Transport is a central feature of modern life and has huge benefits in terms of efficiency, choice and convenience. However, there are costs, too. More traffic means more congestion, slowing down our cities and trunk roads. Pollution from transport leads to serious environmental and health problems and the greenhouse gases to which it gives rise are a significant and rising component in our global environmental impact. Transport accidents are responsible for a large number of fatalities each year and the higher use of motorised transport has lead to a decline in health improving activities such as walking and cycling. Transport has contributed to social exclusion as well as social inclusion.
4 In developing our transport strategy, we will need to put in place a coherent set of policies which strike the best balance between maximising the benefits and minimising the problems. Finding and striking that balance, and developing a transport system that is compatible with economic growth, sustainable development, equality, social inclusion and health improvement principles, will be the major challenges of the NTS.
Key trends and projections in transport
Overall growth in travel
5 We are all travelling a great deal more than in the past. In Scotland, the estimated average distance travelled per person per year has increased by 43% between 1985/86 and 2002/03. The increase is almost entirely accounted for by car travel, either as a driver or as a passenger.
6 Figure 1 sets out the trends in travel by car, bus and rail since devolution in 1990 (indexed to 1998). This shows falls in the number of bus passengers until 1998, since when numbers have recovered with an increase in every year. Car and rail have both shown increases over the period, although in the case of rail there have been fluctuations from year to year. Figure 2 sets out the distances travelled by each mode and includes journeys which are on foot or by bike.
Figure 1 - Trends in passenger journeys (index: 1980=100)
Figure 2 - Average distance travelled (within GB) by Scottish residents, 2002/03
Increasing dominance of the car
7 The private car is by far the dominant mode of transport for people in Scotland. On average, about three quarters of the total distance travelled is by car. Figure 1 shows that the distance travelled by car has been increasing, year on year.
8 The expansion in car use is expected to continue. The latest version of the Transport Model for Scotland forecasts total road traffic to grow by around 22% to 23% between 2002 and 2011.
Increase in aviation
9 There has been a dramatic growth in air transport in Scotland, with a seven-fold increase in passenger numbers between 1970 and 2004. This reflects the availability of cheaper fares and greater choice in flights. The rise in air travel is projected to continue, rising by a further 30% between 2004 and 2011 and 150% by 2030.
Recoveries in bus and rail numbers
10 Passenger numbers on both bus and rail fell after the high points of the 1960s, because of the increase in car use, and have recovered to a greater or lesser extent since then.
11 On buses, the number of journeys fell from over 1,000 million per year during the 1960s, to a low of 413 million in 1998-99. In recent years there has been an encouraging rise in passenger numbers on local bus services, with increases in each of the last six years to 465 million passenger journeys in 2004-05, up by around 10-11% since 1998-99 (when account is taken of a slight change in the basis of the figures).
12 Similarly, numbers using the railways fell from a peak in 1964 (73 million journeys originating in Scotland) to a low in 1982 (50 million). Numbers began rising in the mid-nineties and in 2004-05 the number of journeys was almost 73 million, comparable to the peak 1960's figure.
13 Buses are the dominant form of public transport in terms of journey numbers (465 million local bus passenger journeys in 2004-05 compared with almost 73 million passenger journeys on rail).
Environmental issues
14 The increase in travel - particularly by road and air - has led to an increase in transport's contribution to greenhouse gas emissions. Between 1990 and 2003 transport related carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions increased by 4% 1 and by 2003 transport (excluding aviation) accounted for 19% of all Scottish CO 2 emissions. This contrasted with a decline in emissions achieved in most other sectors in Scotland. Projected increases in road transport and aviation suggest that CO 2 emissions from the transport sector will continue to increase.
15 Air quality in Scotland is generally good. However, while vehicle technology and fuels are cleaner than in the past, more vehicles on the road have led to the increased likelihood of congestion with associated hotspots of poor air quality.
More congestion
16 Both the trunk road network and our cities are affected by congestion, although the level of congestion varies from place to place and throughout the day. This affects our economy, by making journeys to get goods to market and people to their jobs slower and less reliable; and it has environmental impacts because vehicles idling on congested roads cause pollution. The projected increases in road transport will lead to more congestion in the future.
17 To build on existing evidence from our trunk roads monitoring and the Scottish Household Survey, the Executive has recently commissioned a major study to assess the scale of the congestion problem in Scotland, the costs to the Scottish economy and potential solutions.
Changes in freight sector
18 The movement of freight is a critical underpinning of our economy - and the logistics sector itself employs around 5.7% of the Scottish workforce.
19 The freight and logistics sector is changing. Over time, the sector has been becoming more efficient, with both costs and lead times decreasing. Additionally, changes in shopping patterns are having an impact: there has been a much faster increase over time in van traffic than in cars or lorries and, given predictions that 14% of UK retail sales will be online by 2014 and that smaller vehicles are needed to deliver such shopping, this trend looks likely to continue 2.
Increasing safety on the roads
20 Despite a steady increase in road traffic, there has been an ongoing decline in the number of road accidents and casualty numbers. Scotland has fewer road deaths (65 per million population in 2003) than the overall EU average (103 per million population in 2003). The number of children killed has shown a particular decrease in recent years.
21 However, there is still a significant number of people (18,400 in 2004) injured in road accidents in Scotland. The cost of road accidents in Scotland was estimated at £1,399 million for 2004 3.
Social inclusion issues
22 Where a lack of public transport provision or the location of services do not allow people to access those services, they can suffer social exclusion. Even where the right public transport is in place, those who have difficulty using it can suffer exclusion, so the practical needs of older people, disabled people and those travelling with small children are critical to an inclusive system. We also need to consider how to address the concerns of those who may not feel safe on public transport.
23 Car ownership is relatively high in rural areas, but that means that those without a car can become particularly isolated. Even amongst those who do run a car, a higher proportion of their disposable income may be spent by them on it (because of the higher distances travelled, and because people on relatively low incomes run a car in rural areas) so they have less left to spend on other things.
24 Scotland has an ageing population, and the change in age structure has very significant implications for the future of Scotland's economy, for family life and for the planning and delivery of services. In 2004, 44% of the adult population was aged 50 or over, 11% 75 or over and 1% over 90. By 2024 these percentages are projected to be 54%, 14% and 2% respectively.
Decline in active travel
25 Over the past 20 years, the number of trips made by foot and the average distance walked have declined by around a quarter to a third. Most of the decline, however, took place between the mid-1980s and mid-1990s and latterly the figures have levelled off. Cycling levels are not high in Scotland but are not declining: while the average number of cycle trips per year has fluctuated 4 since the mid-1980s, the average distance cycled appears to have risen slightly. The Physical Activity Strategy found that 2,447 people in Scotland die prematurely each year due to physical inactivity. If the goal for reducing inactivity levels over the next five years were achieved (1% change a year), the number of deaths due to inactivity would fall by 157.
What is driving these trends?
Economic growth
26 Since devolution in 1999, the Scottish economy has grown by an average of around 2% per year. This has meant a higher demand for goods and services and a higher demand for transport. Breaking the link between the two is one of the key challenges of this Strategy. This Strategy must help us raise the quality of life of the citizens of Scotland by finding new ways to maintain and build on Scotland's economic growth, without causing further traffic growth, congestion and environmental damage.
Greater car ownership
27 The number of motor vehicles licensed in Scotland more than tripled between 1962 and 2004. In 2003, two-thirds (69%) of households in Scotland had one or more cars. This compares with 51% in 1987. Car ownership is predicted to rise further by more than 30% between 2001 and 2021.
Changes in lifestyles/land use patterns
28 Mass car ownership and improved transport links have encouraged more dispersed land-use patterns. This has meant people, shops, leisure and industries have moved out of cities and therefore more travel has been needed.
Transport users do not pay full costs of journeys
29 Most of the problems that are caused by transport are caused by the fact that transport users - particularly road and air transport - are paying an artificially low price for transport which does not reflect the full cost of making a journey. Car users, for example, pay costs for their car, fuel and tax and insurance but they do not pay for the external costs they impose on society ( i.e. increased air pollution, increased noise, accidents) nor do they pay for the costs they impose on other road users in terms of congestion 5.
30 If the price of transport were a truer reflection of all these costs, then there would be incentives to introduce and buy cleaner and more fuel efficient technology; switch modes when appropriate; manage logistics more effectively; rethink car ownership; and offer better public transport.
The major challenges and opportunities ahead
31 The trends show that the amount of travel undertaken by road and air is increasing year on year and that this demand is forecast to grow at an increasing rate. The challenge is to identify a comprehensive package of policies, balanced across all relevant sectors, which will lead to a transport system that is compatible with the vision and principles for sustainable development, set out in Choosing our Future - Scotland's sustainable development strategy 6.
32 To achieve this will require a strong, sustainable economy providing prosperity and opportunity for all while living within environmental limits. To secure that, we must break the link between economic growth on the one hand and rising traffic levels, greenhouse gas emissions and other forms of environmental damage on the other. This is something that we are committed to doing, but it is not straightforward. However, the evidence shows that technological developments, demand management and increased awareness of the need for change have key roles to play in achieving sustainable transport.
33 We also need to make sure that we are tackling social exclusion, through considering the needs of all our communities to access transport and services; and we have to maximise the opportunity for individuals to be physically active through walking and cycling.
34 Our package of policies cannot be restricted to new infrastructure and new technology alone, although these will have a part to play. The evidence suggests that, while these provide temporary relief, in most cases the problems return as demand for travel rises. We need to address and influence the choices that people make when they travel, not just change the transport system. All this will have financial consequences and the options to be explored in this consultation will need to be considered in this light.
Transport goals in Scotland
35 Overall, the key trends and analysis suggest that our transport goals should be to:
- Facilitate economic growth - by ensuring that the right transport infrastructure and services are in place to enable economic growth on a socially and environmentally sustainable basis;
- Promote accessibility - through linking up our transport networks and by ensuring that we consider transport issues when locating services and reduce the need to travel wherever possible; and by making sure that transport is physically accessible;
- Promote choice and raise awareness of the need for change - through measures such as travel plans and behaviour change interventions;
- Promote modal shift - by shifting the balance away from unsustainable growth in car use, particularly single-occupancy car use, and towards walking, cycling and public transport; by incorporating public transport considerations into the planning of land use ( e.g. large retail, office and housing developments); and for freight through promoting the use of rail and shipping;
- Promote new technologies and cleaner fuels - through ongoing support and encouragement to Scottish industry and motorists where it is appropriate;
- Manage demand - by promoting the efficiency of our networks through demand management measures;
- Reduce the need for travel - by providing local services on local walking and cycling networks and promoting the uptake of alternatives such as home working; and
- Promote road safety - through promotional campaigns and interventions with key groups.
CONSULTATION QUESTION 1.
Are: facilitate economic growth; promote accessibility; promote choice and raise awareness of the need for change; promote modal shift; promote new technologies and cleaner fuels; manage demand; reduce the need for travel; and promote road safety the right goals for transport in Scotland?
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