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SECTION 2 - EFFECTS OF CHANGES

41. In fulfilling our monitoring remit, we have stated that we will judge success in preventing and tackling homelessness across the country against five high level national outcomes. This has been reiterated in the Ministerial Statement on the Abolition of Priority Need. The outcomes we are working towards are:

• no-one need sleep rough;
• existing homelessness becomes more visible;
• sustainable resettlement is secured for people who have been homeless;
• fewer people become homeless in the first place; and
• the duration of homelessness is reduced.

42. The Statement also required that we should reflect the situation as regards local authorities' capacity to meet the 2012 target in our annual reports. As there has not been a significant passage of time from the Statement itself we will, in the main, reflect the analytical work done to support the Statement for this year's report. However for future years we will take account of emerging information and the advice of the 2012 planning subgroup.

Top level outcomes

Rough sleeping

43. Activity under the Rough Sleepers Initiative is now integrated within local authorities' homelessness strategies. There have been no national counts since our last report. A short life Rough Sleepers Working Group has been established to consider how to take forward the recommendations from the evaluation of the RSI. The Group has considered what changes could be made to the currently available Common Monitoring System to enable outcomes for rough sleepers to be better recorded, and the Scottish Executive will consult local authorities and services on the practicality and usefulness of this in the course of the next 2 months.

Existing homelessness becomes more visible

44. We reported last year that levels of homelessness applications continued to rise, although the rate of growth was slowing. Official figures published in November 2005 ¹³ indicated that this continued to be the case with the slowdown in the rate of growth becoming more marked. There were 57,020 applications in total during 2004-05 - a rise of 1% from the previous year, compared with a 6% rise previously. However it remains important to note that it is possible that some homelessness continues to be hidden. For example, the latest information from the Scottish Household Survey indicated that a significant proportion of households who had experienced homelessness had not approached their local authority for assistance ¹⁴ and research indicates high levels of hidden homelessness in black and ethnic minority communities.

45. One of the main impacts of more homeless people becoming visible to 'the system' has been the growth in the use of temporary accommodation. The most recent official statistics ¹⁵ show that 7596 households were accommodated in temporary accommodation under the homelessness legislation at 31 December 2005. The most recent figures also show an increase between 31 December 2004 and 31 December 2005 of 22% (from 2031 to 2373) in the numbers of households with children in temporary accommodation. However fewer families with children were being accommodated in B&B accommodation (78 on 31 December 2005 compared with 108 the previous year). For the first time, data on breaches of the Homeless Persons (Unsuitable Accommodation) Order 2004 was also published - there were 33 breaches of the order as at 31 December 2005.

46. We stated in last year's report that the impact on temporary accommodation should be recognised as a key indicator of local authorities' ability to manage the increased duties which they are currently required to fulfil and overall capacity to achieve the 2012 target. This has been reflected in the Ministerial Statement on the Abolition of Priority Need which makes clear that the number of households in temporary accommodation and the time spent there will be a primary indicator in assessing the capacity of local authorities to reach the 2012 target. Further information on the use of temporary accommodation is contained at paragraphs 32-35 of this report.

47. We noted in last year's report that the proportion of applications accepted as homeless should be monitored - this proportion fell by 4% in 2004/05 as compared to the previous year - we will take particular interest in this if the proportion continues to fall.

Sustainable resettlement

48. The most recent annual statistics indicate that at a national level 9% of households applied more than once during 2004-05 with 8% of applications being reassessed as homeless or potentially homeless within 12 months of a previous case being closed. This represented a slight decrease on previous figures. However, the Scottish Executive wrote to local authorities in February 2006 to agree a clear baseline from which to measure the Spending Review target of reducing repeat applications by 2008, as discrepancies were identified in figures returned to the Executive and Audit Scotland. The Executive also hopes to address this issue as part of the revision of the HL1.

49. Audit Scotland is currently considering the development of an indicator which would generate wider information regarding the sustainability of tenancies.

Fewer people becoming homeless in the first place

50. As has been highlighted above, official statistics continue to show an increase in the number of households applying under the homelessness legislation, and in the number of households being assessed as homeless. The Ministerial Statement on the Abolition of Priority Need reiterated the importance of focussing on the prevention of homelessness and we would endorse this. The Executive has recently commissioned a research project considering the impact of preventative activity - members of the Awareness Raising and Best Practice subgroup will be involved in steering this and subsequently producing guidance on preventative activity.

The duration of homelessness is reduced

51. Data published by Audit Scotland indicate that an average of 15 weeks was taken to process a homelessness case in 2004-05, an increase of 5 weeks from the previous year. There is a wide variation in the average time taken, ranging from 2 weeks to 56 weeks, across different local authorities. We recognise that there may be extremely good reasons for taking longer to close off an application and would prefer that time was taken to find and implement sustainable solutions but we are concerned that in some areas homeless applicants have to wait an extremely long time for their situation to be resolved.

Capacity to meet the 2012 target

52. The Ministerial Statement set out the indicators which should be taken into account in determining capacity to meet the 2012 target as follows:

Primary indicators:

• Number of social lets required to house homeless people and associated impact on waiting lists;
• Number of homeless households in temporary accommodation and time spent there;
• The sustainability of solutions for homeless households; and
• Progress towards the Scottish Housing Quality Standard.

Secondary indicators:

• Voids and void management;
• Support needs;
• Hidden homelessness; and
• Impact of preventative activity.

53. Of the primary indicators set out in the Statement, the use of temporary accommodation gives most current cause for concern - given the continued rise in the number of households in temporary accommodation set out above. We will continue to focus on issues relating to the provision of temporary accommodation throughout the coming year.

54. Analysis undertaken in preparation for the Statement drew on central information sources and the 2012 proformas which were developed by the 2012 planning subgroup and completed by local authorities. Projections contained within the 2012 proformas suggested that seven local authorities currently felt that they would not have sufficient lets to discharge their duties in 2012. Overall local authorities projected a 120% increase by 2012 in the need for social lets to house homeless households - taking account of projected increases in homelessness and in the proportion of homeless households taking up their entitlement to permanent accommodation.

55. The technical appendix to the Statement presented a summary review setting out future scenarios - one based on councils' assessments and one drawing on trend based models and the most recent homelessness data in relation to 4 groupings of councils: rural/non-rural (excluding 4 main cities)/Glasgow/Other main cities.

56. The main drivers of change and points of difference between the projections were as follows:

Rural: the main driver of change under both sets of projections is the increase in the number of people requiring a social tenancy

Non-rural: The main difference in the projections was the future growth in homelessness which these councils projected at a rate significantly above current trends.

Glasgow: The main difference in the projections was in the decline in homelessness which Glasgow projected at a greater rate than current trends, due to the impact of preventative activity.

Other cities: Overall the pro-formas and the trend-based projection show an approximately equivalent picture in terms of the proportion of lets required for homeless households - however it is important to note that the position of Edinburgh is significantly different to that of the other two cities in this grouping.

57. The following key issues for assessing capacity have been identified as a result of the 2012 pro-forma process and the consultation on the Ministerial Statement:

• There are significant levels of uncertainty around key factors influencing the achievement of the 2012 target - in particular trends in levels of homelessness and relet rates can be unpredictable and need to be closely monitored.
• There is a need to ensure that prevention activity is prioritised and taken account of in projecting future scenarios - although it is recognised that it would be helpful to develop a national framework for evaluating impact on a consistent basis.
• Even where lets are available there is a need to take account of the suitability of the accommodation in relation to the nature of demand. There is also a need to ensure that access to housing association and private rented sector lets is maximised for homeless people.
• There is a need to ensure that data from central information sources is as robust as possible - particular action is being taken to address the data collected from local authorities via the HL1 and HL2 and the Executive and Communities Scotland have also begun to look at lettings data.

58. Throughout the course of this year the 2012 planning subgroup will continue to monitor capacity, taking account of new and improved data becoming available throughout the year. Two new posts are to be created under the joint direction of the Executive and ALACHO (in association with CoSLA) - some of the postholders' work will be steered by the subgroup to ensure a focus on those areas which face the most significant challenges in reaching the 2012 target. Communities Scotland is currently commissioning a wider local affordable housing needs proforma and emerging data from this exercise will also be taken into account by the subgroup.

59. We will report on our view of capacity in greater depth next year - taking account of information from the subgroup and also recognising the importance of taking stock at the midway point from the publication of the Homelessness Task Force's report to the target date of 2012.

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