Changing Our Ways: Scotland's Climate Change Programme

Annex E: Supporting Analysis for the Scottish Share

Reserved policy measures in the UK Climate Change Programme

Sector	Policy	Annual carbon savings in 2010 ( MtC)
In UKCCP 2000
Business	Climate Change Levy, including exemption for CHP and renewables	3.7
Business	Climate Change Agreements with energy intensive sectors and implementation of IPPC	2.8
Domestic	Energy Efficiency Commitment ( EEC 2002-11)	1.6
Domestic	Community Energy Programme	0.03
Transport	Voluntary Agreement Package (company car tax, vehicle excise duty, voluntary agreements)	2.3
Transport	Transport Ten Year Plan (including sustainable distribution)	0.8
Total for policies in UKCCP 2000		11.23
Introduced since UKCCP 2000
Domestic	Product Policy - Market Transformation Programme	0.2
	Reduced VAT rate on grant funded installations of energy saving measures and heating products	0.1
	Reduced VAT rate on EEC installations of energy saving measures	Negligible
	Reduced VAT rate on heating controls	0.1
Transport	Fuel duty escalator for petrol and diesel	1.4
Total for policies introduced since UKCCP 2000		1. 8
New in UKCCP 2006
Domestic	Enhanced EEC for households (2008-11)	0.5
Domestic	Products Policy - consumer information and standards for lights and other energy-using products	0.2
Transport	Future voluntary agreement with car manufacturers on reduced CO 2 emissions	0.1
Transport	Vehicle Excise Duty
Total for new measures in UKCCP 2006		0.8
Overall total for UK reserved measures		13.8 MtC

The most recently available estimates of carbon savings are used. Most are from Oxera's Synthesis of Climate Change Policy Evaluations (2006), carried out on behalf of Defra and the devolved administrations as part of the review process. Some of these estimates update the figures included in the UKCCP 2000. Not all of the figures in this and the next table are in the UKCCP as it focuses its analysis on carbon dioxide.
All of these reserved policies will have an impact in Scotland, leading to a reduction in Scottish emissions. Using an 8.3% population factor (see later comment) to derive the Scottish impact of these reserved policies gives an estimate of 1.1 MtC by 2010.

Devolved policy measures in the UK Climate Change Programme

Sector	Policy	Annual carbon savings in 2010 ( MtC)
In UKCCP 2000
Agriculture, forestry, land use	Woodland planting (Scotland only, revised estimate)	0.5
Business	Carbon Trust activities (throughout UK)	1.2
	UK Emissions Trading Scheme ( UKETS) CO 2	0.26
	UKETS N ₂0 and CH₄	0.27
	UKETS F-gases	0.16
	Building Regulations 2002 non-domestic (England and Wales only)	0.77
Energy	Renewables Obligation (throughout UK)	2.47
Domestic	Building Regulations 2002 (and 2006) domestic (England and Wales only)	1.4
Public	Energy efficiency targets for central government and NHS estates, UK universities and English schools (throughout UK, but not full coverage in Scotland)	0.2
Total for devolved policies in UKCCP 2000		7.23
Introduced since UKCCP 2000
Agriculture, forestry, land use	Woodland Grant Scheme (England only)	0.16
Agriculture, forestry, land use	Energy Crops Scheme (England only)	0.01
Business	IPPC and F-gases (throughout UK)	1.31
Business	Voluntary agreements and F-gases (throughout UK)	0.04
Domestic	Warm front and equivalent devolved schemes (throughout UK)	0.44
Domestic	NI-Energy Efficiency Levy (Northern Ireland only)	0.08
Public sector	Central Energy Efficiency Fund (Northern Ireland)	0.05
Public sector	Central Energy Efficiency Fund (Scotland)	0.02
Waste	Waste Management	2.9
Total for devolved policies introduced since UKCCP 2000		5.00
New in UKCPP 2006
Agriculture	Expansion in use of non-food crops (England only)	0.1
Agriculture	Forestry Strategy (Scotland only, additional to 2000 estimate)	0.15
Business	EUETS (throughout the UK)	5.5 ⁶⁷
Business	Obligation on energy suppliers to encourage SMEs to take up energy saving opportunities	0.1
Transport	Renewable Transport Fuels Obligation (throughout UK)	1.6
Domestic	Package of measures to improve energy efficiency in buildings (England and Wales only)	0.1
	Implementation of EPBD and provision of advice to stimulate early replacement of inefficient boilers (England and Wales only)	0.2
	Better billing and metering	0.2
Public Sector	Carbon Trust funding for public sector	0.1
Public Sector	Additional effort by local authorities (England only)	0.2
Energy	Subsidy for renewable heat (England only)	0.1
Other		0.25
Total for new devolved measures in UKCCP 2006		8.60
Total devolved measures in UKCCP		20.83
Minus double count from forestry and renewables (see below)		0.12
Overall total for devolved policies in UKCCP		20.71
Scottish Share of UK devolved policies (conversion factor of 8.3% based on projected population in 2010)		1.7

The inclusion of policies and schemes in the table has been restricted in the main to those where estimates of carbon savings are available, although the impact of other policies is expected to be small. The most recently available estimates of carbon savings are used. Most are from Oxera's Synthesis of Climate Change Policy Evaluations (2006), carried out on behalf of Defra and the devolved administrations. Some of these estimates update the figures included in the UKCCP 2000.
Many of these devolved policies (eg Renewables Obligation, ETS, RTFO) are implemented in a similar way throughout the UK following agreement between the UK government and devolved administrations. Some policies are common across the UK but implemented in different ways in each administration (eg Building Regulations,
agri-environment schemes, forestry schemes).
A population factor of 8.3% is applied to calculate the Scottish Share. Population projections are available from the General Register Office for Scotland and the Government Actuary's Department. Sector-specific factors were considered (eg using land area for agriculture and forestry) and provide a similar outcome. Population is used for all sectors for consistency and simplicity.
A small double count between the agriculture, forestry and land use and energy sectors has been taken account of. This arises as biomass and short rotation coppice to replace fossil fuels in the generation of heat and electricity has been counted at both the point of growth and the point of use.

Devolved policy measures in Scotland's Climate Change Programme

Sector	Policy	Annual carbon savings in 2010 ( MtC)
In SCCP 2000
Agriculture, forestry, land use	Scottish Forestry Strategy	0.5 ⁶⁸
Business	Carbon Trust activities in Scotland	0.10
	Scottish building regulations 2002 non-domestic	0.03
	UKETSCO 2	0.02
	UKETS N ₂0 and CH₄	0.02
	UKETS F-gases	0.01
Domestic	Warm Deal and Central Heating Programme (Scottish equivalent of Warm Front)	0.08
	Scottish building regulations 2002 domestic	0.03
Energy	Renewables Obligation Scotland	0.81
Public	Energy efficiency targets for central government and NHS estates, UK universities and English schools (replaced individual targets for SPS, NHSiS, SEPA etc in SCCP)	0.02
*Total for devolved policies in SCCP 2000*		1.62
Introduced since SCCP 2000
Business	Loan Action Scotland	0.00
	IPCC and F-gases	0.11
	Voluntary agreements and F-gases	0.00
Public	Central Energy Efficiency Fund (Scotland)	0.02
Waste	Waste Management	0.24
*Total for devolved policies introduced since SCCP 2000*		0.37
New in SCCP 2006
Agriculture, forestry, land use	Additional measures in the Scottish Forestry Strategy (increased afforestation, short-rotation coppice, and use of wood fuel)	0.15
Business	EUETS Phase II cap	0.45 ⁶⁹
Transport	Renewable Transport Fuels Obligation	0.13
Total for new devolved measures in SCCP 2006		0.73
Total devolved measures in SCCP		2.72
Minus double count from forestry and renewables		-0.12
Overall total for devolved policies in SCCP 2006		2.6

The inclusion of policies and schemes in the table has been restricted in the main to those where estimates of carbon savings are available in a consistent manner throughout the UK. This table does not, therefore, reflect the full range of devolved activity in Scotland, although the impact of other policies is expected to be small.
The carbon savings in this table are a subset of, rather than an addition to, those in the preceding tables ie in the UKCCP. The Scottish impact has been determined from the Oxera Synthesis Report which presents the analysis of policies - devolved and reserved - at UK level. In most cases the Scottish impact is considered to be broadly proportional to its UK population share with two notable exceptions.
- The impact of Scottish participation in the EUETS. Scotland is known to have around 10% of all UK installations in Phase 1. Using 10% would show Scotland contributing a greater proportion of carbon savings from this policy compared with using the population conversion factor of 8.3%. Therefore the population factor has been applied for consistency with other policies, and as this presents a more cautious estimate of Scottish impact.
- The impact of the Renewables Obligation in Scotland was analysed separately as, in terms of renewable energy, Scotland has a significantly higher proportion of resources. As such Scotland's carbon savings have been disaggregated from the UK figures in line with relative resource allocations, rather than population share.

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Annex E: Supporting Analysis for the Scottish Share