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Bringing the mitigation side together
Devolved policies and the Scottish Target
5.201 The main policy developments to mitigate emissions of GHGs in Scotland have been described throughout this section. Steps to enhance further our understanding of the carbon impact of all relevant Executive policies will be put in place. This will include improving and extending the analysis of carbon savings as well as considerations of cost-effectiveness across sectors and policies.
5.202 Estimates of the carbon savings from some devolved policies are set out in Annex E. These have been derived largely from a UK analysis and will form the basis of assessing whether or not Scotland has met the Scottish Target in 2010. The assessment will be returned to as part of a UK-wide exercise to ensure comparability and consistency in assessing progress towards 2010 targets.
Estimated carbon savings from devolved policy measures in Scotland
5.203 As described in Section 3, the Scottish Target is to exceed the Scottish Share by 1 MtC and, at present, the Scottish Share is calculated at 1.7 MtC. The figures in Annex E provide an indication of how we expect to achieve that, and the estimated contribution of each sector, as shown below.
5.204 A large chunk of the carbon savings from devolved policies in 2010 is expected to come from the business sector (eg through emissions trading), the energy sector (eg promotion of renewables) and forestry (eg afforestation and use of wood fuel). This is partly a feature of the contribution to total carbon emissions from these sectors, as well as the scope for policy making in Scotland, ie the balance between devolved and reserved responsibilities. Contributions from other policies and sectors, whilst smaller in carbon terms, are also important in moving Scotland onto a low carbon path for the future. As mentioned in Section 3, the expected future impact of carbon savings from devolved policies will not necessarily match emission trends in the UKGHG Inventory, for the reason outlined.
Devolved and reserved policies in Scotland
5.205 It is recognised that the Scottish Share and the Scottish Target do not include reserved policies. However, it is clear that sectors and emissions in Scotland will be affected by reserved policies and that the Executive has a role in influencing the development of such policies by the UK Government.
5.206 The UKCCP and its supporting analysis contain a full explanation of policies at UK level and the reserved policies are listed in Annex E of this programme. An assessment of their impact in Scotland has been undertaken. The expected carbon savings from both devolved and reserved policies in Scotland in 2010 are shown below.
Estimated carbon savings in Scotland from devolved and reserved measures in 2010 ( MtC)
5.207 This shows the impact of reserved policies in the business sector (eg Climate Change Levy and Agreements), the domestic sector (eg fiscal measures, Energy Efficiency Commitment, Community Energy Programme, standards for electrical appliances) and the transport sector (eg range of fiscal measures on vehicles and fuel, voluntary agreement with car manufacturers). No reserved policies are shown in the energy sector as these are assigned to the sector affected by the policy.
5.208 Based on the analysis to date, devolved and reserved policies introduced since the UKCCP and SCCP were first published in 2000 are estimated to bring about carbon savings in Scotland of around 3.7 MtC (reserved total estimated at 1.1 MtC and devolved total estimated at 2.6 MtC). The estimate from devolved policies reflects our commitment to make a more than equitable contribution to UK efforts by setting a target to exceed the Scottish Share.
5.209 An assessment of the potential for actual emission reductions in Scotland depends on projecting the underlying trend in emissions forward to 2010 and beyond. Emissions are not only affected by policies designed to achieve carbon savings, but also by other factors such as economic growth and population, as well as changes to the energy mix in Scotland. Detailed information on energy projections will become available later in 2006 as part of the Scottish Energy Study. These will be combined with the latest projections from other sources to provide GHG emission projections for Scotland for 2010 and 2020. When available, this will allow us to compare the Scottish Share and the Scottish Target against the projections for GHG emissions in 2010.
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