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ANNEX F Transport drivers and constraints
An important part of the initial work on RTS (under 'scoping', below) will be to identify the particular drivers of, and constraints on, transport in the region: what are the factors influencing the scale and nature of demand? There will be some general drivers that apply fairly consistently across the region but others that are particular to corridors or zones.
Those transport drivers of note could (perhaps often will) be associated with growing demand for travel although where a particular driver is reducing demand this can also be important if it is threatening to undermine, for example, a public transport service. They are also more often than not likely to be linked to growth in road traffic, particularly cars and commercial vehicles.
Transport drivers include:
- general economic growth: as the economy grows, more jobs are created, journeys to work increase, more freight ( e.g. supplies and finished goods) moves in, out and around the country or region, more service provision is demanded by commercial and residential users, as general prosperity rises, more and longer leisure trips are made;
- specific economic developments associated with e.g. major commercial developments will have impacts at the regional, sub-regional and local level as part of an overall and uneven working out of national economic growth;
- social change such as trends towards and against high-density urban living and suburbanisation; population trends: growth and decline in certain regions/sub-regions;
- demands made/forecast by certain major sectors such as tourism, recreation, retail, that have a strong transport component; demand likely to be generated by new transport infrastructure or services;
- location of public and private services (especially health facilities), employment, housing etc and the likely impact of development plans;
- costs of transport: the relative cost of modes in real terms (flat or declining motoring costs, falling air fares, rising public transport fares - trends which can be interrupted by short-term effects such as peaks in fuel prices); cost of transport to business as a proportion of production costs (influence of e.g. energy costs); cost of transport to people as a proportion of household income; impact of cost on demand;
- trends in logistics and distribution; balance of light and heavy commercial traffic;
- technological change: better information for users, more integrated information; impact of technology on costs, travel time, quality and therefore choice; vehicle technologies and the impact on energy consumption and emissions and the knock-on effects on cost;
- social and cultural factors: evidence of trends towards demand for sustainable modes for non-economic reasons? Cultural factors behind car ownership and use of different modes. Tolerance of increases in commuting time or distance;
- safety and security concerns - perceptions and reality. Expansion of CCTV coverage, safety of pedestrians, differential impacts on groups: gender, age, disability, race etc.
Constraints
What is regional transport policy constrained by? What are the main forces that can 'oppose' the strategic development of regional transport?
Transport constraints include:
- physical capacity of existing infrastructure (railway, road, bus and train stations, car parking, airports, ports etc);
- physical limits on the expansion of infrastructure ( e.g. cannot always expand the width of urban streets to introduce e.g. dedicated cycle/bus/tram lanes without removing space from other road users or having an adverse impact on adjacent property);
- financial constraints limit the extent to which public transport running costs can be subsidised to reduce fares/improve quality/expand coverage and the extent to which every new road or rail infrastructure scheme can be afforded - hence the need for thorough appraisal and prioritisation;
- cost constraints on individual rather than government spending: e.g. high fuel prices will restrain vehicle usage but high public transport fares will act as a disincentive to modal shift; taxation; inflation; levels of disposable income;
- regulatory constraints - these are wide-ranging and cover everything from speed limits to drivers' hours to vehicle specifications; also public transport market regulation;
- legislative/political constraints operating at European, UK, Scottish and local level;
- land-use planning constraints - the procedures required to gain planning permission for certain transport projects; national and local planning policies which may rule some transport options out altogether; also the nature of new residential/industrial/retail developments constrains the provision of transport options;
- skills and labour shortages: e.g. drivers, engineers, managers, policy-makers and planners;
- delivery constraints: management capability, planning procedures, security of funding, ensuring projects run to budget and timescale;
- technological constraints: what does the current state (or cost) of technology prevent us doing? What is unproven? What is unaffordable?
- information constraints - optimal regional transport policies depend on the right information available to the right people to support their development. Individual consumers may not have the information they need in order to make optimal choices. Is there sufficient information on e.g. the link between cost and efficiency, or efficiency and driver behaviour, or the availability of alternative fuels?
- cultural constraints: behaviours, aspirations, expectations and perceptions.
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