The Scottish Government

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MAKING THE BEST USE OF EVIDENCE

12. In order to ensure that progress is being made and that changes are made at a sustainable rate it is important to have sound monitoring systems in place. There is a very wide range of data sources which are relevant to the 2012 target. In terms of information relating specifically to local authorities' homelessness duties and their achievement of the 2012 target the key sources are: HL1 and HL2 data; Communities Scotland's inspection reports; lettings data and homelessness/wider housing need pro-formas completed by local authorities during the course of this year (referred to as the 2012 pro-forma hereafter).

HL1/HL2 data

13. The current HL1 data indicates that:

• Nationally, 75% of households assessed as homeless were assessed as having a priority need for accommodation in 2004/05. This amounted to 29,032 households in 2004/05.
• 22,097 priority need households had their cases actioned in 2004/05 - of these 69% secured permanent accommodation as a final outcome, 4% received temporary accommodation and for the remainder the application was dropped or resolved in another way. It should be noted that a number of households assessed as non-priority also actually received permanent accommodation as a result of their application.
• However the statistics indicate that there is wide variation between local authorities - for example the proportion of households assessed as having a priority need varies from 54% to 89%. The proportion of priority need households securing permanent accommodation varies from 50% to 89%.

14. Tables showing this data at a local authority level are contained in Annex A.

15. HL2 data shows that an increasing number of households are currently living in temporary accommodation as a result of a homeless application. This has been a sustained rise from 2002/03 onwards - as at March 2005 there were 7,539 households in temporary accommodation - 4,205 in local authority dwellings; 1,619 in hostels; 1,556 in B&B and 159 in other forms of temporary accommodation.

Lettings data

16. Official lettings data, as returned by local authorities to the Executive, indicate that the number of all local authority lets going to homeless households ranges from 9% to 54% in 2004/05. A table setting out this data is at Annex A. It is notable that some participants in the consultation exercise felt that a far higher proportion of lets are being granted to homeless people. We recognise the need to understand this mismatch and to ensure that official data is as robust as possible. The proportion of social lets required to house homeless people, and the impact this has on others in housing need, was the key indicator of current and future pressure considered within the 2012 pro-formas.

17. It is more difficult to obtain reliable information about housing association lets in any local authority area as a number of associations operate across local authority borders - nationally the data indicate that 14% of housing association lets go to homeless households. We will work with Communities Scotland to ensure that more robust information on housing association lets at a local authority level is available through the Annual Performance and Statistical Return.

Communities Scotland inspections

18. Information from Communities Scotland's inspection reports of the five pathfinder authorities is summarised in Key themes from Inspections: Homelessness published in June 2005.

2012 pro-forma

19. Information from the 2012 pro-forma was summarised in Analysis of Local Authorities Pro Formas to assess their ability to meet the abolition of the Priority Need Test, published in August this year. Appendix B sets out a commentary drawing on councils' responses to the exercise; modelling of possible scenarios; and the most recent homelessness statistics.

20. We do not underestimate the scale of the challenge which faces local authorities in meeting the 2012 target. The indications are that in some areas the proportion of social lets to homeless people will need to rise significantly by 2012 unless greater use can be made of other accommodation options; preventative activity has a major impact on the number of people coming into the homelessness system; or there are greater than expected increases in the size of stock or number of lets available. It is clear that in these areas, as we have already acknowledged, further housing supply and improved housing quality are necessary to alleviate these pressures and ensure that housing need can be met effectively.

21. The 2012 pro-forma exercise was a useful one in terms of opening a dialogue with local authorities and raising awareness of key factors affecting the scale and nature of issues to be addressed in preparing for the change and in setting up future scenarios against which actual experience can be measured. As was highlighted in our earlier consultation paper, it is important in assessing and drawing conclusions from these projections to note that they represent authorities' initial response to the request to assess the impact of the change within the standard format set out in the proforma. The main indicator of the impact of the 2012 commitment on social housing - namely the proportion of available social lets required to meet the housing needs of homeless applicants - is very sensitive to all components of the projection. It is difficult for both the Executive and councils to be sure how robust the projections of future impact are at this point in time.

Future process

22. The Executive wishes to build on the processes undertaken to date to ensure a comprehensive and consistent approach to housing needs assessment. This will take account of the impact of the abolition of priority need and inform planning for affordable housing supply beyond the current spending review period.

23. We have therefore commissioned work to develop a local affordable housing needs pro-forma with a view to improving the consistency of information collected from local authorities on these needs. This will help to identify a coherent national picture of requirements for affordable housing. The researchers will provide support to assist local authorities in completing this exercise.

24. The commission will run in parallel with, and be consistent with, a research project to update the Local Housing Need and Affordability Model for Scotland that has been commissioned separately and which is running to a similar timetable. We will consider the useful comments made about the 2012 pro-forma in taking forward this commission - in the main these centred around the need to ensure that the exercise was capable of reflecting local issues within authority areas; and potential mismatches between available stock and need.

25. We would currently envisage asking local authorities to return the pro-forma during 2006 and every two years thereafter but would like to discuss this further with local authorities in light of links to local housing needs assessments, Local Housing Strategies and homelessness strategies. The Homelessness Monitoring Group will reflect the most up-to-date position in relation to homelessness in their annual reports - in order that close monitoring is undertaken on an annual basis whilst allowing local authorities a longer timescale to prepare their own returns.

26. However, we continue to recognise the need to assess authorities' capacity to respond to the 2012 target by taking account of a wide range of factors beyond the likely impact on social lets and the associated impact on waiting lists. Amongst these the key factors we will assess will be the number of homeless households in temporary accommodation and time spent there; the sustainability of solutions for homeless households; and progress towards the Scottish Housing Quality Standard.

27. We will consider these factors alongside information arising from the affordable housing needs pro-forma, and other related information, to assess local authorities' capacity to achieve the 2012 target on an individual basis.

28. Other information which will be considered includes information on voids and void management; support needs and whether these are currently met; hidden homelessness; and the impact of preventative activity.

29. The data sources from which this information will be obtained are set out in the table below.

30. We are also in the process of undertaking a review of the HL1 in order to reflect legislative change and ensure more robust information on the causes of homelessness and the outcomes of applications and will ensure that this is accompanied by detailed guidance in order to aid consistency of returns across local authorities. We will as part of this review, consider the helpful suggestions made during the consultation process. We will also carry out a small-scale study considering the variety in local authority implementation of the homelessness legislation and recording of their actions.

31. We recognise the broader advantages of ensuring that local authorities and RSLs collect consistent data which is also reported consistently.

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