Statistical Bulletin: HSG/2005/5: Housing Series: Housing trends in Scotland: quarter ending 30 June 2005

Description	Housing Trends in Scotland: Quarter Ending 30 June 2005
ISBN	0-7559-2844-X
Official Print Publication Date
Website Publication Date	November 29, 2005

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A Scottish Executive National Statistics Publication
ISBN 0 7559 2844 x
ISSN 0264 1143
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Introduction
Notes On Contents
Key indicators: 1995 to 2005
Estimated stock of dwellings by tenure: 1994 to 2004
Summary information by local authority
Financial key indicators: 1995-96 to 2004-05
Mortgages at completion stage: 1995 to 30 June 2005
New house building
New dwellings completed: 1995 to 30 June 2005
New dwellings started: 1995 to 30 June 2005
House building progress by local authority and agency responsible: quarter ending 30 June 2005
Sales of public authority dwellings
Applications to buy public authority dwellings: 1995 to 30 June 2005
Sales of public authority dwellings: 1995 to 30 June 2005
Sales of public authority dwellings by local authority: quarters ending 31 March 2004 to 30 June 2005
Sales of housing association dwellings: 1994-95 to 2004-05
Local authority lettings and evictions
Vacancies, lettings and evictions for local authority dwellings: quarters ending 31 March 2004 to 30 June 2005
Local authority lettings by type of dwelling and source of tenant: quarter ending 30 June 2005
Social landlord lettings resulting from local authority nominations: quarter ending 30 June 2005
Vacancies and lettings by local authority: quarter ending 30 June 2005
Eviction actions against council tenants by local authority: quarter ending 30 June 2005
Notes And Definitions
Contact information and other recent Scottish Executive Development Department statistical publications on housing

Housing trends in Scotland: quarter ending 30 June 2005

This bulletin presents data on housing activity in Scotland for the second quarter of 2005. It includes information on public sector house sales, new house building, and local authority lettings and evictions. Due to housing stock transfers, figures for local authority dwellings do not include authorities with total stock transfers from 2003 quarter 2 onwards.

The main points to emerge from the bulletin are as follows:

New house building: 6,277 new dwellings were started during the period April to June 2005, 298 (5%) less than during the same period in the previous year. 6,517 dwellings were completed during April to June 2005, 442 (7%) more than during the same period in 2004.
Sales of public authority dwellings: A total of 2,153 public authority dwellings were sold to sitting tenants in the period April to June 2005, a decrease of 328 (13%) on the same period in 2004.
Lettings and evictions: During the quarter April to June 2005, there were 7,951 permanent lettings of local authority dwellings, 1,158 (13%) less than during the same quarter in the previous year. There were 253 evictions of local authority tenants this quarter, 11 (5%) more than during April to June 2004.

Tenure of estimated dwelling stock

Note: Stock transfers took place for Dumfries & Galloway, Glasgow and Scottish Borders in 2003. Estimates for 2003 onwards will reflect this change of tenure.

Notes On Contents

Symbols Used

The following symbols are used throughout the bulletin:

..	not available
-	nil
na	not applicable
*	less than half the final digit shown (less than: 0.5%, 50 for figures rounded to nearest 100, or 5 for figures rounded to nearest 10)

Explanatory Notes

Figures which have been revised for this issue (as well as all percentages) are shown in italic type.

In some tables, where figures have been rounded, the total shown may not equal the sum of its constituent parts.

Please note there are no Rent Registration tables included in this bulletin due to data access problems. Homelessness statistics are published separately. More detailed breakdowns of the statistics presented in the tables will, in some cases, be available. Contact the Housing Statistics branch to find out what further details can be made available (contact details on the back page).

As a result of the transfer of local authority housing stock during 2003 in Dumfries and Galloway, Glasgow and Scottish Borders councils, figures for local authority dwellings do not include figures from these local authorities from 2003 quarter 2 onwards. These cases are indicated in the footnotes.

Table 1
Key indicators: 1995 to 2005

	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005
Revised population estimates at 30 June (000s)	5,104	5,092	5,083	5,077	5,072	5,063	5,064	5,055	5,057	5,078
Household estimates at 30 June (000s)	2,112	2,126	2,139	2,153	2,166	2,177	2,195	2,209	2,225	2,246
Estimated stock of dwellings at 31 December (000s) ¹	2,230	2,248	2,267	2,285	2,305	2,324	2,323	2,344	2,366	2,389
% owner occupied	58	59	60	61	62	63	63	64	66	66
% rented from public authorities	31	30	28	27	25	24	23	22	16	16
Total new dwellings completed	24,325	20,950	22,523	20,376	24,390	23,022	23,303	23,920	23,723	25,099
Private sector ²	18,310	18,092	17,839	18,326	19,398	18,033	17,729	18,749	19,731	21,616
Housing associations	4,854	2,566	4,507	1,911	4,911	4,894	5,502	5,120	3,939	3,483
Public authorities	1,161	292	177	139	81	95	72	51	53	-
Dwellings demolished or closed ³	5,837	4,133	4,624	3,635	4,746	5,058	5,125	3,918	2,978	3,212
Public authority dwellings sold ³	27,480	19,196	28,637	22,250	16,629	19,297	17,567	18,008	16,202	12,292
Housing provision for older people by public authorities and housing associations as at 31 March
Very sheltered housing	671	719	913	1,144	1,389	1,689	1,825	2,023	2,787	2,872
Sheltered housing	33,687	34,976	35,484	36,096	34,752	35,342	34,615	34,127	34,156	32,758
Medium dependency housing ⁴	19,013	18,535	16,883	17,245	16,751	16,870	16,674	15,842	29,679	13,110
Applicants on the housing register as at 31 March ^{3 5}	..	..	..	..	..	..	219,837	228,487	223,858	192,320	188,322
Number of households (re)housed
Local authority dwellings	..	..	..	..	..	..	48,999	49,180	49,332	35,707	35,457
Other dwellings	..	..	..	..	..	..	3,373	3,568	3,596	3,178	3,041
Houses in multiple occupation ³
Licences in force as at 31 March	..	..	..	..	..	..	25	710	1,921	4,280	8,460
	1994-95	1995-96	1996-97	1997-98	1998-99	1999-00	2000-01	2001-02	2002-03	2003-04	2004-05
Dwellings allocated by local authorities ^{3 6}	63,955	63,113	67,973	67,918	66,365	..	..	53,187	52,535	39,136	34,458
% new lets	63	66	65	66	68	..	..	71	73	75	77
% new lets under homelessness legislation	20	21	19	20	21	..	..	24	28	29	36

Note: Certain time series for local authority figures show substantial year on year variation due to housing stock transfers: these are indicated by broken lines in the table (see notes and definitions).
1. 2004 figures are provisional.
2. Includes estimates for outstanding returns for the private sector in Highland from 2003 Qtr 4 onwards.
3. Includes estimates for outstanding returns.
4. Subsequent to stock transfers in Glasgow, figures for 2003 include approximately 14,000 medium dependency units which were previously unclassified. The decrease in 2004 is due to reclassifying approximately 13,000 units as general needs accommodation.
5. These are combined waiting and transfer list figures. Due to housing stock transfers, figures for Dumfries & Galloway, Glasgow and Scottish Borders are not included in the 2004 totals.
6. Source: Housing Revenue Account return from local authorities to the Scottish Executive Development Department: Housing 1. This return was discontinued after 1999-00 to be replaced with a new form (LETTINGS) collecting information from 2001-02 onwards. 1994-95 lettings figures are based on incomplete returns. Due to housing stock transfers, figures for Dumfries & Galloway, Glasgow and Scottish Borders are not included in the totals from 2003-04 onwards.

Table 2
Estimated stock of dwellings by tenure: 1993 to 2004

	Total number of dwellings (000s)	Owner occupied		Rented
		Owner occupied		Privately, with a job/business		From housing associations		From local authorities, New Towns, Scottish Homes
		Number	Percentage	Number	Percentage	Number	Percentage	Number	Percentage
December 1993	2,193	1,217	55.5	154	7.0	67	3.1	755	34.4
December 1994	2,210	1,258	56.9	155	7.0	77	3.5	721	32.6
December 1995	2,230	1,293	58.0	155	7.0	91	4.1	692	31.0
December 1996	2,248	1,327	59.0	154	6.9	99	4.4	668	29.7
December 1997	2,267	1,366	60.3	154	6.8	115	5.1	631	27.8
December 1998	2,285	1,401	61.3	154	6.7	121	5.3	608	26.6
December 1999	2,305	1,436	62.3	155	6.7	130	5.6	584	25.3
December 2000	2,324	1,474	63.4	156	6.7	137	5.9	558	24.0
December 2001	2,323	1,468	63.2	176	7.6	144	6.2	535	23.0
December 2002	2,344	1,507	64.3	176	7.5	146	6.2	515	22.0
December 2003 ¹	2,366	1,549	65.5	178	7.5	250	10.6	389	16.4
December 2004 ²	2,389	1,583	66.3	178	7.5	250	10.5	378	15.8

Note: Estimates up to 2000 are based on the 1991 Census. Estimates from 2001 onwards are based on the 2001 Census and are not strictly comparable (see notes and definitions).
1. Stock transfers took place for Dumfries & Galloway, Glasgow and Scottish Borders in 2003. Estimates for 2003 onwards will reflect this change of tenure.
2. Provisional.

Table 3
Summary information by local authority

Area	Number of dwellings on the council tax register as at 6/9/05 ¹	Estimated number of recipients of housing benefit ²	Local authority dwellings ³
Area		Estimated number of recipients of housing benefit ²	Near actual number estimated as at 30/9/05	Estimated average weekly standard rent (£) 2004-05 ⁴
SCOTLAND	2,398,470	446,800	378,450	42.32
Aberdeen City	107,670	15,800	25,005	42.67
Aberdeenshire	102,864	10,300	14,234	40.33
Angus	51,989	7,600	8,640	37.33
Argyll & Bute	45,512	5,900	5,975	44.19
Clackmannanshire	22,443	4,600	5,592	40.19
Dumfries & Galloway	69,880	10,600	na	na
Dundee City	71,790	18,500	16,479	44.72
East Ayrshire	53,842	12,300	14,894	41.93
East Dunbartonshire	43,405	4,000	4,253	44.79
East Lothian	41,441	6,000	8,496	36.25
East Renfrewshire	36,728	3,400	3,620	42.74
Edinburgh, City of	223,693	33,500	24,417	49.44
Eilean Siar	13,676	1,400	1,823	44.07
Falkirk	68,295	12,700	18,309	42.68
Fife	163,313	27,000	34,205	41.44
Glasgow City	294,819	95,500	na	na
Highland	105,628	13,500	14,995	47.42
Inverclyde	39,376	9,500	9,262	52.80
Midlothian	33,795	5,100	6,673	33.77
Moray	40,179	4,700	6,465	34.34
North Ayrshire	64,130	13,900	15,280	38.60
North Lanarkshire	142,679	33,300	41,317	42.49
Orkney	9,642	800	850	39.82
Perth & Kinross	65,608	7,600	8,392	37.59
Renfrewshire	80,632	16,600	15,350	46.78
Scottish Borders, The	53,252	7,100	na	na
Shetland	10,157	1,000	2,015	50.75
South Ayrshire	52,391	8,600	9,525	39.84
South Lanarkshire	136,862	25,800	30,115	42.08
Stirling	38,198	5,200	6,601	39.27
West Dunbartonshire	43,827	11,800	12,475	42.18
West Lothian	70,754	13,100	13,193	46.70

1. Source: Information supplied by local authorities to the Scottish Executive Financial and Central Services Department Analytical Services Division: Local Government Finance on CTAXBASE statistical return. Excludes free-standing lock-ups/garages.
2. Source: Department for Work and Pensions Housing Benefit and Council Tax Benefit Management Information System. Quarterly 100% caseload stock counts taken in August, November 2004 and February, May 2005. Figures shown are averages of caseload counts over the four time points, and are rounded to the nearest hundred. Figures refer to a benefit unit, which may be a single person or a couple, and exclude extended payment cases. Figures for any non-responding authority, or for an authority which was unable to provide accurate information, have been estimated based on historical and regional data.
3. Source: Housing Revenue Account return from local authorities to the Scottish Executive Development Department: Housing 1. Following housing stock transfers, figures for Dumfries & Galloway, Glasgow and Scottish Borders councils are not included in the Scotland totals.
4. Average weekly rent is calculated by dividing the estimated housing revenue from 1 April 2004 -31 March 2005 by the estimated housing stock at the mid point of the financial year (30 September 2004).

Table 4
Financial key indicators: 1995-96 to 2004-05

	1994-95	1995-96	1996-97	1997-98	1998-99	1999-00	2000-01	2001-02	2002-03	2003-04	2004-05
Housing finance ¹
Total expenditure (£m)	1,104.0	1,035.6	742.8	677.1	725.0	732.9	771.4	814.4	905.0	1,374.1	1,454.2
Capital expenditure (£m) out-turn ²	1,031.6	968.4	666.4	583.6	624.6	644.1	687.1	719.4	823.2	827.7	894.7
Current expenditure (£m) out-turn	72.4	67.2	76.4	93.5	100.4	88.8	84.3	95.0	81.8	546.4	559.5
Local authority rents ³
Average weekly rent (£)	27.71	28.67	31.11	33.40	35.36	36.43	38.05	39.30	40.94	42.32
Number of dwellings	648,337	633,129	630,596	612,976	593,313	573,295	552,291	532,966	512,552	378,450
	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004
Housing Tender Price Index (1985=100) ⁴	140	147	145	139	151	163	170	175	188	199	208
Average dwelling price: all lenders ⁵
All purchasers (£)	50,651	53,143	56,674	57,883	63,585	69,312	69,961	73,570	76,877	95,006	118,932

1. Source: Capital Payment and Housing Revenue Account returns from local authorities to the Scottish Executive Finance and Central Services Department: Local Government Finance and Development Department: Housing 1. Figures in this bulletin include councils' gross capital spend (including spending from borrowing consents, receipts and current revenue) on both their own stock (Housing Revenue Account) and private sector housing (non- HRA).
2. Excludes £107m in 1995-96 and £83m in 1996-97 which was additional borrowing consent to enable councils to purchase New Towns stock. Excludes additional grant of £46m in 1997-98 and £67m in 1998-99 to enable the redemption of Scottish Homes debt. Covers both capital and current expenditure by Community Scotland/Scottish Homes for 2001-02 and 2002-03, while most recent years include elements of Communities Scotland Development Programme now classed as capital expenditure (such as grant to local authorities).
3. Source: Housing Revenue Account return from local authorities to the Scottish Executive Development Department: Housing 1. Average weekly rent is calculated by dividing the estimated housing revenue from 1 April to 31 March by the estimated housing stock at the mid point of the financial year (30 September). Figures are near actual.
4. Source: Scottish Executive Finance and Central Services Department: Construction Advice and Policy (see notes and definitions). The figures for 2002 onwards are based on smaller samples than previous years and should be treated with caution.
5. Source: Survey of Mortgage Lenders, Council of Mortgage Lenders and the Office of the Deputy Prime Minister. Figures shown are simple average dwelling price and are not adjusted for the mix of dwellings sold.

Table 5
Mortgages at completion stage: 1995 to 30 June 2005

Period	Number of loans (000s) ^{1 2}	Mix-adjusted House Price Index 2002=100 ³	All purchasers			Percentage of first time purchasers
Period	Number of loans (000s) ^{1 2}	Mix-adjusted House Price Index 2002=100 ³	Average house price (£)	Percentage of price advanced ⁴	Average recorded income (£)	Percentage of first time purchasers
1995	53	77	53,143	76	20,928	54
1996	65	79	56,674	75	21,877	50
1997	74	84	57,883	75	22,450	50
1998	72	89	63,585	75	24,151	52
1999	83	91	69,312	75	25,936	50
2000	78	93	69,961	77	26,877	49
2001	86	97	73,570	76	28,495	41
2002	94	110	76,877	73	30,236	30
2003	84	125	95,006	67	31,945	20
2004	84	151	118,932	68	34,080	22
2003 1st Qtr	16	113	78,734	64	29,309	24
2003 2nd Qtr	20	122	89,309	63	30,805	23
2003 3rd Qtr	23	130	103,905	70	33,353	18
2003 4rd Qtr	25	136	108,076	72	33,206	18
2004 1st Qtr	20	140	110,886	69	33,939	20
2004 2nd Qtr	25	150	114,240	68	33,471	17
2004 3rd Qtr	24	157	124,917	67	34,180	23
2004 4th Qtr	18	159	125,683	67	34,729	24
2005 1st Qtr	12	160	124,494	66	35,161	23
2005 2nd Qtr	14	170	136,205	65	37,442	22

Source: Survey of Mortgage Lenders, Council of Mortgage Lenders and the Office of the Deputy Prime Minister.
Notes: Figures since 1993 have been revised, substantially in some cases, due to changes in methodology (see notes and definitions). Due to rounding, the total shown may not be equal to the sum of constituent parts. The relatively small sample sizes and effects of seasonality mean that quarter on quarter changes should be interpreted with caution. Figures from 2002 Q2 onwards are based on an increased sample size.
1. The numbers of loans are estimated by applying the house purchasing activity rate for England and Wales to the estimated privately-owned housing stock in Scotland (see notes and definitions).
2. 2005 Q2 figures are provisional.
3. The House Price Index was revised in 2003 (see notes and definitions).
4. The percentage of price advanced has been revised. Percentages are now calculated on a case-by case basis and then averaged. Previously the percentages were derived on the overall average price and advance.

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