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Indicator 7 Climate Change

Million tonnes of greenhouse gases carbon equivalent (weighted by Global Warming Potential)

Source: NETCEN

Note: Totals may not sum due to the effect of rounding. Scottish greenhouse gas emissions data were first published in 2000 for 1990 and 1995. Scottish emissions data for 1998 and subsequent years are being published annually.

The relevance of the indicator

Our climate in Scotland is changing to become wetter and wilder as a result of increased concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. We need to act to reduce those emissions and to deal with the impacts of climate change such as flooding.

Detailed definition and source details

Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change ( UNFCCC) are obliged to compile inventories of the six greenhouse gases targeted by the Kyoto Protocol. The inventories are based on emission source and sink categories agreed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Following devolution, a national UK inventory continues to be needed to ensure the UK fulfils its reporting under the UNFCCC and to monitor the legally binding commitments under the Kyoto Protocol, which came into force on 16 February 2005. However, some of the measures to deliver greenhouse gas emissions reductions are devolved and information on the emissions from the UK's four constituent countries is needed to support action in each country.

Different greenhouse gases have varying capacities to cause global warming. The Global Warming Potential ( GWP) provides a measure of the relative radiative effects of the emission of various greenhouse gases, accounting for the potency of the gas as well as the amount emitted. It is possible to estimate the overall global warming effect of Scottish greenhouse gas emissions by weighting the emissions of each gas by its GWP. SF₆, PFCs and HFCs are the most potent, with GWP up to several thousand times greater than carbon dioxide, although, as the table shows, carbon dioxide is by far the most significant. Data for 1990, 1995, and 1998-2002 were taken from the report compiled by NETCEN for the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (<acronym>Defra</acronym>) and the devolved administrations ¹. Emissions projections are also discussed in the Jan 2002 edition of the Scottish Economic Report²

Trends

Total greenhouse gas emissions for Scotland fell by almost 6% between base years ³ and 2002. Scottish carbon dioxide emissions declined by over 3% between 1990 and 2002, while the Scottish economy grew by 25% over the same period. UK greenhouse gas emissions fell by around 15% between base years and 2002.

DTI produces projections of energy use and carbon emissions. For 1990-2020, steady growth is expected in energy use, albeit at a rate lower than that of economic growth. Due to the size of the Scottish economy, the results for emissions are extremely sensitive to potential investment changes in the market for electricity generation. Amongst other pertinent considerations are what happens to the flow of electricity through the interconnector (in 2003 Scotland exported around 17% of the electricity it generated to other parts of the UK, though the emissions associated with its generation are attributed to Scotland), and the effect that changes in world oil prices can have on the relative competitiveness of coal.

These issues, along with the fact that all modelling is subject to uncertainty, make projections for carbon emissions in Scotland a very imprecise art. Based on work ⁴ done for the Scottish Executive we can, however, estimate that the combined effects of the UK and Scottish Climate Change Programmes would be a reduction in Scottish greenhouse gas emissions of between 4.7 per cent and 16.6 per cent on 1990 levels by 2010. A formal review of the Scottish Climate Change Programme commenced in autumn 2004 and, as part of this review, work is underway to evaluate the impact of the Executive's climate change policies on emissions and to provide updated carbon dioxide projections to 2020. A revised Programme is due to be published in summer 2005.

Further disaggregation

In 2002, Scotland's contribution of carbon dioxide was 19.5 million tonnes of carbon equivalent (11% of the UK total), a fall of 1.2 million tonnes from 1990. The largest source of carbon dioxide emissions is from the energy sector, whilst the combination of agriculture, forestry and land use is the second largest source. Total emissions of methane are declining and fell by 29.5% between 1990 and 2002. The major sources of methane are waste disposal, coal mining, leakage from the gas distribution system and agriculture.

Target

In A Partnership for a Better Scotland, Scottish Ministers pledged to "work with the UK Government, where appropriate, to meet our commitments to tackle climate change and promote renewable energy and other aspects of sustainability." The Scottish Executive is committed to making an equitable contribution to the UK Kyoto target of a 12.5% reduction in 1990 levels of UK greenhouse gas emissions by 2008-2012 and working in partnership with the UK Government in moving towards its more ambitious domestic goals. A public consultation on the review of our Scottish Climate Change Programme was launched on 2 December 2004 and closed on 24 February 2004. This sought views on whether establishing separate Scottish climate change targets might now be a practicable proposition and responses will help inform the revised Scottish Programme, due for publication in the first half of 2005.

Action

We published the Scottish Climate Change Programme⁵ in November 2000. The Programme sets out the measures that will deliver Scotland's contribution to the UK Climate Change Programme, aimed at meeting the UK Kyoto commitment and moving the UK as a whole toward the domestic goal of a 20% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions by 2010. We welcome the UK Government's pledge, made in response to the Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution's 22 ^nd Report and in the Energy White Paper, to put the UK on the path towards a reduction in carbon dioxide emissions by some 60 per cent by around 2050. The review of the Scottish Programme is considering the scope for strengthening existing policies and for adopting new ones.

The EU Emissions Trading Scheme began on 1 January 2005. The 'cap and trade' Scheme is being implemented in an undifferentiated manner across the UK and for the first time imposes requirements on the largest individual emitters of carbon dioxide to monitor and account for their emissions. Together, the installations covered by the Scheme (including: the electricity generation industry; oil refineries; the iron and steel industry, the minerals industry, and paper, pulp and board manufacturing) account for about 50% of all UK carbon dioxide emissions. The first phase of the scheme (2005-2007), will cap traded sector carbon dioxide emissions at 756 million tonnes, 5% below projected business as usual emissions. The second phase (2008-2012) emissions cap will be consistent with the trading sector's contribution to achieving the 20% domestic goal. The Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trading Regulation 2003 ⁶ came into force on 31 December 2003.

Raising awareness of climate change issues in Scotland is an important element of the Scottish Climate Change Programme. Climate change features as part of our Do a little, change a lot environmental awareness campaign ⁷. This element of the campaign seeks to make the link between everyday actions and climate change by encouraging domestic energy efficiency and reduced car use for short journeys. An interactive website ⁸, designed for Scottish schoolchildren, was developed in 2002 for the Scottish Executive. The site was revised in 2003 with the addition of comprehensive teacher resources.

Footnotes

1 Baggot et al. (2004) "Greenhouse Gas Inventories for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland: 1990-2002". NETCEN, AEATechnology, AEAT/ENV/R/1761.

2 Available on the Scottish Executive website at: www.scotland.gov.uk/library3/fionance/ser5-09.asp

3 1990 for carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide and 1995 for hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons and sulphur hexafluoride.

4 Available on the Scottish Executive website at: www.scotland.gov.uk/library3/fionance/ser5-09.asp

5 Available on the Scottish Executive climate change web-site at: www.scotland.gov.uk/climatechange/

6 Available at: www.hmso.gov.uk/si/si2003/20033311.htm

7 The campaign website can be found at: www.dochange.net.

8 Available at www.ltscotland.com/climatechange.

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