« Previous | Contents | Next »
Listen
Indicator 3. Population structure
Proportion of population which is working age
Estimated and projected population
Age | 1981 | 1991 | 2001 | 2011 | 2021 | 2025 |
|---|
0-15 | 22.9 | 20.1 | 19.2 | 16.8 | 15.9 | 15.8 |
|---|
Working age (adjusted) | 60.0 | 62.0 | 62.2 | 62.6 | 62.5 | 60.8 |
|---|
Pensionable age (adjusted) | 17.0 | 17.9 | 18.6 | 20.7 | 21.6 | 23.4 |
|---|
Source: GROS revised mid-year estimates and GAD interim 2003 based population projections.
Notes: Working age for men is taken as 16-64 and for women 16-59 until 2010 rising to 16-64 in 2020. Pensionable age is taken as all those above working age. Non-adjusted figures in the chart do not take account of the changes to the retirement age of women between 2010 and 2020 that result in the equalisation of pensionable ages for men and women at 65 in 2020.
The relevance of the indicator
A sustainable Scotland will include a balance of children, people of working age and older people. We need to ensure that we retain the talents and skills of people of all ages.
Choice of Indicator
The proportion of the population which is of working age will not only give an indication of the potential size of the workforce in Scotland, but will also gauge the degree of dependency within the economy ( i.e. those who are not of working age).
Detailed definition and source details
The indicator is defined as the proportion of the Scottish population which is of working age. Working age is currently defined as males aged 16-64 and females aged 16-59. Between 2010 and 2020 the pensionable age for women will increase in steps from 60 to 65, with a resulting increase in the number of people of working age. The data are taken from the General Register Office for Scotland's ( GROS) annual mid-year population estimates for 1981-2003 and from the Government Actuary's Department ( GAD) interim 2003 based national population projections. The trends disaggregated by urban and rural areas use GROS 2002 based sub-national population projections.
The 2004 based national projections will be published in October 2005 followed by the 2004 based sub-national projections in December 2005.
Trends
Following small increases in the early eighties, the percentage of the population of working age has remained largely static at 62%. This is projected to rise to 62.6% by 2011 and to peak at 62.9% between 2015 and 2019, before falling to 60.8% in 2025. The chart shows that without the change in the retirement age of women, the projected percentage of people of working age would otherwise start to fall in 2010, dropping to 56.8% by 2025. The average age of the working population is projected to increase, with an increasing percentage aged over 50. Over the whole period the percentage of population below 16 is projected to fall (from 22.9% in 1981 to 15.8% in 2025), while the percentage of those of pensionable age will rise (from 17.0% to 23.4%).
Further disaggregation
The data can be split into urban and rural areas on the basis of council area (see the Annex for allocation of council areas to urban and rural). The data for urban and rural areas shown are not adjusted for the increase in the pensionable age for women. The data can be further disaggregated by council area and gender and are available on the General Register Office for Scotland ( GROS) website 1
Source: GROS mid-year population estimates and 2002 based sub-national population projections.
Target
No target - an assessment over time of the trend and rate of change will need to be made.
Action
We aim to maintain and foster the wide range of communities throughout Scotland, and to influence population trends, particularly the outflow of younger people. Ensuring that the right jobs are on offer within the Scottish economy will help encourage the young to stay and the more experienced to return.
The Fresh Talent Initiative was announced by the First Minister in February 2003. The initiative has focussed on four key areas: promoting Scotland as a place to live and work; promoting Scotland as a destination for people applying for UK work permits; encouraging students at Scottish Universities to stay in Scotland; and improving first impressions of Scotland on arrival, be it business travellers, migrants, students or tourists. The key objective of this initiative is to put in place the measures to address these priority areas with a view to attracting and retaining 'talented' people to live and work in Scotland. 2
Footnotes1 See http:// www.scotland.gov.uk/library5/environment/isds04-30.asp.
2 See http:// www.scotland.gov.uk/library5/environment/isds04-30.asp.
« Previous | Contents | Next »