The Scottish Government

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CHAPTER FIVE: EVALUATIONS OF DEVOLUTION

Chapter aims

This chapter addresses three questions:

• Who do people think has most influence over how Scotland is run: the Scottish Executive or the UK Government?
• Which of these institutions should have most say over how Scotland is run?
• Has devolution strengthened Scotland's voice in the UK and who is most likely to believe this is the case?

Introduction

5.1 This report considers two aspects of people's evaluations of devolution. Firstly, it explores people's views about the impact of devolution on the wider process of governing Scotland; for example has it given Scottish institutions greater influence and does Scotland now have a stronger voice? Secondly, it examines what people believe the new system of government has meant for public services and policy delivery. This chapter addresses the first of these issues and chapter six looks at the second.

5.2 The issue of how much influence different institutions exert over how Scotland is run is covered by two questions that have now been asked on five occasions since the Scottish Social Attitudes survey began in 1999. The first asks:

Which of the following do you think has most influence over the way Scotland is run?

The Scottish Parliament

The UK government at Westminster

Local councils in Scotland

The European Union

As with some of the other questions looked at in this report the question wording has had to be adapted over the years. This question has changed in two ways. In 1999 the wording reflected the fact that the parliament had yet to open and instead asked "When the new parliament starts work, which of the following will have most influence…". In 2004 Scottish Parliament was replaced with Scottish Executive so that it would match the UK Government option ¹⁰.

5.3 This question is always followed up by a second which asks (using the same answer options):

And which do you think ought to have most influence over the way Scotland is run?

5.4 In addition to looking at the relative powers of the Scottish Executive and UK Government the survey also asked about the relative power of Scotland within the UK. The following question was asked in 1997, 1999 and 2000 with the intention of tapping this dimension:

Will a Scottish Parliament give Scotland ...
...a stronger voice in the United Kingdom,
a weaker voice in the United Kingdom,
or, will it make no difference?

It was then replaced in 2001 (and asked annually since) by a slightly different format of wording which asked people to evaluate performance in this respect:

Do you think that having a Scottish Parliament is giving Scotland...
...a stronger voice in the United Kingdom,
a weaker voice in the United Kingdom,
or, is it making no difference?

Power and influence

5.5 Figure 5.1 shows the proportions of people over time who have said that the Scottish Executive does have most influence over how Scotland is run alongside the proportions who said that it should have most say. The different wording used in 1999, as discussed in the introduction, in part accounts for the higher proportion choosing the Scottish Parliament in the first year than did so in later years when the question asked about actuality.

5.6 The most striking pattern evident in this chart is the fact that in every year the proportion who think the Executive should have most say exceeds, by a fairly large margin, those who think this is actually the case. By 2003 the proportion who said the Executive should have most say had declined from three-quarters to two-thirds, and this remained the case in 2004, but despite this drop the gap between people's aspirations and their perceptions of reality is still quite large. It should also be noted that over the same period there was a small but steady increase in the proportion who believe that it does indeed have most influence, from 13% in 2000 to 19% in 2004.

Figure 5.1 Perceptions of the Scottish Executive's role in how Scotland is run, 1999-2004

5.7 Although the question gave people a range of four possible institutions to choose from, the only other body which has attracted significant attention over time is the UK Government. Figure 5.2 follows the same principle as Figure 5.1 but this time looks at views towards the UK Government's role.

5.8 Once again the first point to note is the large gap between what people say should be the case and what they think is actually happening. Even at its highest point (20% in 2003) no more than a small minority take the view that the UK Government should have most influence, and even this reading appears so far to be a one off reading. By 2004, it had dropped down to its lowest ever level (12%). As before, 1999 stands out as quite distinct with just four in ten (39%) people during the period immediately after the first Scottish Parliament elections saying that the UK Government had most influence over how Scotland is run. By 2000, however, this jumped to two-thirds, remaining at this level until 2004 when there was a significant drop, to 48%.

Figure 5.2 Perceptions of the UK Government's role in how Scotland is run, 1999-2004

5.9 The fact that the proportion who said the UK Government has most influence dropped to just below half in 2004 cannot be accounted for by the small increase in the proportion saying that the Scottish Executive has (as shown in Figure 5.1). In fact what happened is rather more curious. For the first time since the survey began the proportion saying that local councils have most influence hit double figures - 20% - up from 7% in 2003. Quite why this might have happened is unclear.

Scotland's voice

5.10 Prior to 1997 Scottish voting trends were quite different to those in England. Since 1959 Scotland has returned a majority of Labour MPs at each election ¹¹, so by 1992 (when the Conservatives had won four elections in a row) Scotland had been governed by a party which had only won a minority of seats for an unprecedented period of time. This situation increased concerns about Scotland's influence within the UK and as a result the Scottish Social Attitudes survey has asked a question every year about whether devolution is strengthening Scotland's voice within the UK. As with other questions the wording of this question in the early years asked about aspirations whereas from 2001 onwards people were asked to evaluate devolution's performance.

5.11 Figure 5.3 looks at people's views in the years immediately before and after the establishment of devolution. In 1997 and 1999 large majorities of seven in ten (70%) thought that Scotland would have a stronger voice within the UK as a result of devolution, though this dropped to half by the time devolution had been place for a year.

Figure 5.3 Will having a Scottish Parliament give Scotland a stronger voice in the UK? 1997, 1999 and 2000

5.12 Figure 5.4 looks at people's evaluations of the impact of devolution on Scotland's voice within the UK. In 2001 and 2003 the proportion who thought Scotland has a stronger voice outweighed those who said devolution had made no difference in this respect. In 2002 and 2004 the reverse is the case, which echoes a trend present in a number of the analyses in this report (of views differing in alternate years).

Figure 5.4 Do you think having a Scottish Parliament is giving Scotland a stronger voice in the UK? 2001-2004

5.13 Table 5.1 looks at the relationship between whether people think devolution has or has not strengthened Scotland's voice in the UK and trust in government, party identification, and awareness of the Executive's activities. Figure 5.4 indicated that in 2004 more people thought that devolution was making no difference than said it was giving Scotland a stronger voice. People with high levels of trust, however, are more likely to believe that it is having a positive impact (50%) in this respect than not (42%). While there are very strong associations between both party identification and awareness levels and this measure, none of the other groups are more positive than negative overall.

Table 5.1 Perceptions of the impact of devolution on Scotland's voice in the UK, by trust in government, party identification, age, and awareness of the Scottish Executive's activities

Key points from this chapter

• Since 1999 clear majorities of between three-quarters and two-thirds have said each year that the Scottish Executive should have the most influence over how Scotland is run.
• However, no more than one in five has ever said that the Scottish Executive does in fact have most influence.
• Between 2000 and 2003 around two-thirds identified the UK Government as the body having most influence, though in 2004 this fell to just under half. It is not possible to conclude from a single year's results what caused this change between 2003 and 2004.
• The high aspirations recorded in 1997 and 1999 that devolution would give Scotland a stronger voice in the UK do not appear to have been met.
• From 2001 onwards the proportion who believe Scotland now has a stronger voice in the UK has fluctuated between a half (52%) and a third (35%) while the proportion who believe devolution has made no difference on this front has moved between four in ten (40%) and over half (55%).

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