27 th July 2005
NEXT PUBLISHED (Provisionally): 26 th October 2005
A Scottish Executive National Statistics Publication
ISBN 0 7559 2671 4 (Web only publication)
This document is also available in pdf format (1MB)
Gross Domestic Product in Scotland rose by 2.0 per cent over the year to 2005 Q1 and remained constant (in percentage terms) during the first quarter of 2005 according to provisional estimates released today by the Scottish Executive.
The main findings of the latest figures are:
- GDP rose by 2.0 per cent over the year to 2005 Q1 and remained constant over the first quarter of 2005 (seasonally adjusted).
- Over the year to 2005 Q1, annual output in the Scottish service sector grew by 2.6 per cent, compared with a 0.4 per cent decrease in the production sector and a 3.2 per cent rise in construction.
- In the first quarter of 2005, the service sector grew by 0.6 per cent, the production sector fell by 2.3 per cent and the construction sector rose by 0.3 per cent.
- The UK figures show that GDP rose by 2.7 per cent over the year to 2005 Q1 and by 0.4 per cent over the latest quarter.
- Over the year to 2005 Q1, the UK experienced a 3.5 per cent growth in services, a 0.3 per cent growth in production and 2.7 per cent growth in construction.
- Over the latest quarter, the service sector grew by 0.6 per cent. Within this sector the real estate and business services (1.2%) sector was the main driver of the quarterly increase, with hotels & catering (2.4%), retail & wholesale (0.5%), other services (0.8%) and public administration, education & health (0.2%) also contributing to the growth.
- Output in the production sector fell by 2.3% in the latest quarter. Over the year, the sector decreased by 0.4%.
- Within production, the main sectors driving the quarterly decrease were manufacturing (-1.2%) and electricity, gas & water supply ( -6.9%). The'electricity, gas & water supply' and manufacturing sectors each contributed -0.9% towards the overall 2.3% fall in production over the quarter. Mining & quarrying also decreased over the quarter ( -4.4%).
- Within manufacturing the main sectors driving the quarterly decrease were engineering & allied industries (-1.9%) and metals (-5.2%). Textiles (-3.1%) and other manufacturing (- 0.4%) also fell over the quarter.
Table 1: Gross Value Added chained volume measures at basic prices, 1,2 by category of output
Scotland, 1998 to 2005 Q1
Total Gross Value Added
Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing
2001 weights 3
Q1 04 on Q4 03
Q2 04 on Q1 04
Q3 04 on Q2 04
Q4 04 on Q3 04
Q1 05 on Q4 04
% change latest 4 qtrs on previous 4 qtrs
1. Gross Value Added ( GVA) is also referred to as Gross Domestic Product ( GDP) at basic prices
2. Estimates cannot be regarded as accurate to the last digit shown
3. Weights may not sum to the total due to rounding
- Gross Domestic Product ( GDP) is a measure of the value of goods and services produced by residents, before allowing for depreciation or capital consumption. Net receipts from interest, profits and dividends abroad are excluded. The estimates produced in this publication measure GDP at basic prices (also referred to as gross value added ( GVA)).
- In February 2004, on publication of results for 2003 Q3, the Scottish GDP estimates moved to annually weighted and chained estimates of volume measures - referred to as "annual chainlinking" - as recommended in the System of National Accounts 1993. This is consistent with the UK where this approach was introduced on 30 September 2003 in respect of the 2003 Q2 results. Annual chainlinking is achieved by producing a weighted average of over 260 separate indices (160 of which are in the production sector). The indices represent changes in the value added, at constant prices, in the production of goods and services in individual industries. These industries are compiled using the standard industrial classification SIC2003.
- The main difference between chainlinking and the previous "fixed base" methodology is that the weights applied to each industry (reflecting importance in the Scottish economy) are updated on an annual basis, instead of a 5-yearly basis. The major effect of chainlinking has been to more accurately reflect the changing importance of sectors. The impact of chainlinking the Scottish GDP series to 2000 weights was to reduce the negative effect of the low/declining growth in some sectors, while simultaneously increasing the importance of those which had been performing well. Both of these changes had a positive effect on the overall level of growth estimated by the Scottish GDP series. In October 2004 the weights were updated to 2001 in line with the annual chainlinking methodology. The effects of the new weights on the overall GDP index were negligible. There was a slightly positive effect on production and construction balanced by a very small negative effect on services with the result of almost no change to total GDP. An article providing more information about the chainlinking methodology was published in Scottish Economic Statistics 2004 www.scotland.gov.uk/stats/ses.
- Series are derived from indicators based on data from a wide range of sources. Examples include: deflated turnover, deflated production, the volume of a good or service sold or produced and, for some parts of the public sector, employee numbers.
- The quarterly Scottish GDP estimates are published within 4 months (approximately 17 weeks) of the end of the quarter to which they relate.
- The indices published within this Statistics Publication Notice are grouped according to the 2003 revised Standard Industrial Classification. The four broad groupings of industries are
(a) agriculture, hunting, forestry and fishing
(b) production which comprises: mining and quarrying industries; energy and water supply; and manufacturing, which includes: refined petroleum products and nuclear fuel; chemical and man-made fibres; metal and metal products; engineering and allied industries; food, drink and tobacco industries; textiles, footwear, leather and clothing; other manufacturing.
(d) services, which includes: retail and wholesale; hotels and catering; transport, storage and communication; financial services; real estate and business services; public administration, education and health; other services.
- Scottish GDP estimates will generally be less reliable than the estimates for the UK, primarily because the equivalent UK figures are produced by balancing 3 independent sets of estimates (Output ( GVA), Income & Expenditure-based approaches). Furthermore, the survey data tend to be based on smaller numbers of units, making figures for Scotland more likely to be subject to small random fluctuations.
Cash Estimates of GVA
- Estimates of the cash value of gross value added ( GVA) at current prices for Scotland (and other regions of the UK) are produced by the Office for National Statistics. Estimates for 2003 were published on 22 nd December 2004. The ONS current price value estimates are methodologically different from the Scottish Executive volume (constant price) index and are based on different data sources.
- The figures in this Statistics Publication Notice incorporate revisions to previously published estimates. These are mainly due to revisions to input data and adjustments to seasonal factors. Tables 8 - 13 identify the extent of revisions since the last publication in January 2005. Note that revisions are shown to one decimal place for total GVA and GVA excluding oil & gas and to zero decimal places for all other sectors.
The series most affected by revisions this quarter are:
- Financial Services - due to revised life insurance data and subsequent adjustments to seasonal factors;
- Transport - due to revised deflator data and adjustments to seasonal factors;
- Mining & Quarrying - due to revised input data;
- 'Metal & Metal products'; 'Chemicals'- due to revised input data and seasonal factor adjustments.
- National Statistics are produced to high professional standards set out in the National Statistics Code of Practice. They undergo regular quality assurance reviews to ensure that they meet customer needs. They are produced free from any political interference.
- Detailed results for all industries are available to download from the Scottish Executive website www.scotland.gov.uk/gdp.
Issued by St Andrew's House
Office of the Chief Economic Adviser
Office of the Permanent Secretary
Edinburgh EH1 3DG
Press Office: Stuart Lewis 0131-244-2517
Statistician: Andrew Mortimer 0131-244-3771
List of tables
Table 1: Gross Value Added chained volume measures at basic prices, by category of output
Table 2: Gross Value Added chained volume measures at basic prices, by category of output
Table 3: Gross Value Added chained volume measures at basic prices:service industries
Table 4: Gross Value Added chained volume measures at basic prices: detailed service industries
Table 5: Gross Value Added chained volume measures at basic prices: production industries
Table 6: Gross Value Added chained volume measures at basic prices: detailed production industries
Table 7: Gross Value Added chained volume measures at basic prices by category of output
Table 8: Revisions to data published on 27 April 2005 (Table 2)
Table 9: Revisions to data published on 27 April 2005 (Table 3)
Table 10: Revisions to data published on 27 April 2005 (Table 4)
Table 11: Revisions to data published on 27 April 2005 (Table 5)
Table 12: Revisions to data published on 27 April 2005 (Table 7)
Table 13: Revisions to data published on 27 April 2005 (Table 7)