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Section A Aggregate Output, Input and Income in
2004
Introduction
The 2004 estimates of agricultural output, input and
income for the
UK are described in 'Agriculture in the
United Kingdom 2004', published by The Stationery Office in
April 2005 on behalf of the
UK Agriculture departments. The Scottish
estimates given in this report correspond to those in the
combined
UK publication. The aggregate income
figures reflect the estimated value of outputs from and
inputs to Scottish agriculture over the calendar year.
Subsidy payments are also incorporated into output and
income estimates on an accruals basis, i.e. they are shown
in the year in which they became due to be paid. Normally
this is the year in which the farmer carries out the
production to which the subsidy relates.
Commentary
Aggregate Results
The 2004 estimates are provisional. They were
calculated during November 2004-January 2005 and were based
on the latest available information at the time. While
information on outputs is largely complete, data on input
figures tend to become available later, sometimes with
significant delay. The forecasts are, therefore, subject to
revision in the next Annual Review.
The 2004 forecasts for Scottish agricultural output,
input and income are shown in Table A1. Total Income From
Farming (
TIFF) measures business profits plus
income to workers with an entrepreneurial interest
(farmers, partners, directors and their spouses, and most
other family members who work on the farm).
TIFF is forecast to increase by around
2.5% (£12 million) over last year, before inflation is
taken into account. In real terms, this represents a fall
of around 0.4%.
Farm Crops
In the cereals sector, yields were better than
expected given the weather conditions prevailing at the
onset of harvest. However the associated reduction in
quality and low market prices are reflected in a fall in
overall output value of 2%. The value of the potato crop
shows a 36% increase, due largely to strong prices,
particularly during the first half of the year.
Livestock and Livestock Products
The value of finished livestock (£910 million) is
forecast to have risen by 3% in 2004. The output value of
finished cattle is up, reflecting an improvement in prices.
Despite a marginal fall in the prices achieved for finished
sheep, the output value has increased due to a rise in
volume. Output values are forecast to have risen for both
the pig and poultry sectors. The Dairy Premium Payment made
in 2004 has contributed to a 5% (£16 million) increase in
the output value of Livestock Products.
Direct Payments
The value of direct payments (those included in
commodity output and as sundry receipts in the accounts) to
Scottish agriculture in 2004 is estimated to be £532
million, an increase of around 3% (£13 million) from 2003.
This rise is mainly due to increased payments made under
the sheep and milk schemes.
Inputs
The gross input value is forecast to increase by 6%
to £1,121 million in 2004. There are forecast increases in
almost all categories, the most significant of which are
feeding stuffs, fertilizers and lime, interest and
miscellaneous expenses. Within miscellaneous expenses, fuel
and oil has increased by 14% from 2003, reflecting the
crude oil price increases in 2004. The amount of interest
paid by farmers has also risen as a result of the interest
rate increases that occurred in 2004.
Balance Sheet
Overall the total value of assets increased by £415
million to £14.6 billion. This is mainly due to an increase
in the value of Land and Buildings. Total liabilities are
estimated to increase by £70 million to £1,990 million. The
net worth of the industry (calculated by subtracting total
liabilities from total assets) has increased by 3% to £12.6
billion from 2003 but remains at just over 86% of the value
of total assets.
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