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1.
Main Points
1.1 The provisional total number of people killed in
road accidents in Scotland in 2004 was 307: a decrease of
24 (7%) over the figure for 2003, and the second lowest
total since current records began more than fifty years
ago.
1.2 There was a provisional total of 2,712 people
recorded as seriously injured in road accidents in 2004,
235 (8%) fewer than in 2003, and the lowest figure since
records of the numbers of serious injuries began in
1950.
1.3 The provisional figure of 15,227 people recorded as
slightly injured in 2004 was 219 (1%) fewer than in 2003,
and the lowest number since 1955.
1.4 The provisional total number of casualties in 2004
was 18,246, which was 478 (3%) lower than in 2003, and the
lowest figure since 1953.
1.5 There was a provisional total of 3,019 people killed
or seriously injured in 2004, 38% (1,819) below the 1994-98
average of 4,838, so the 2010 target fall of 40% has almost
been achieved.
1.6 The provisional total of 381 children killed or
seriously injured in 2004 was 55% (461) below the 1994-98
average of 842, so the 2010 target of a 50% reduction has
already been achieved.
1.7 At the time of writing, 2003 is the latest year for
which there is an estimate of the total volume of traffic
for Scotland as a whole. The slight casualty rate of 36.74
casualties per 100 million vehicle kilometres in 2003 was
21% below the 1994-98 baseline average of 46.42, so the
2010 target of a 10% reduction has already been
achieved.
1.8 Accidents on roads in non built-up areas accounted
for over two thirds (69%) of all those killed in Scotland,
compared with about two fifths (43%) of the total number of
casualties, perhaps because average speeds are higher on
such roads.
1.9 A provisional total of 11,450 car users were injured
in road accidents in 2004, 168 of whom died (9% less than
the previous year). There were 3,031 pedestrian casualties
including 75 killed (19% more than the previous year).
Perhaps because of their greater vulnerability, 24% of all
pedestrian casualties were either killed or seriously
injured, whereas only 14% of car users were killed or
seriously injured.
1.10 There were provisional totals of 977 motorcyclist
casualties, 909 bus and coach user casualties and 764 pedal
cyclists casualties in 2004.
1.11 The provisional total of 2,358 child casualties in
2004 was 118 (5%) fewer than in 2003. They included 12
killed: 5 deaths fewer than in 2003.
Killed - from 1950
Killed & Seriously injured casualties and
Seriously injured casualties - from 1950
2.
Background2.1 This bulletin presents
provisional statistics of road accidents in which people were
killed or injured ("injury road accidents") in Scotland in
2004, which were extracted from the Road Accidents
statistical database on 11 May 2005. The final totals for
2004, which will appear later, in
"Road Accidents Scotland 2004", may differ
slightly from the figures given here, due to (e.g.) late
returns and amendments. For similar reasons, the figures
which appear here for 2003 and earlier years may differ
slightly from those published previously.
2.2 Section 5, tables 3 - 5 and the charts on page 6
show progress towards the casualty reduction targets for
2010. The targets are described in section 10.4. The
figures for 2004 are compared with the annual averages for
1994-98, because this is the "baseline" period for the road
safety targets for the year 2010. In the charts on page 6,
the thick black lines show the figures recorded so far, the
horizontal dashed lines show the baseline averages, and the
dotted lines going downwards indicate how the figures would
have to fall
if the targets for 2010 were to be achieved by
means of a constant percentage reduction in each year. They
imply the following reductions from the 1994-98 averages by
2004:
Killed or seriously injured: 25.3%
Child killed or seriously injured: 32.7%
Slight casualty rate (per 100 million vehicle-km):
5.8%
- therefore, any falls which are
greater than these suggest
more rapid progress than the relevant indicative
lines.
2.3 In this edition, Tables 3,4 and 5 have been expanded
to provide the latest five years' average and the numbers
in 2010 implied by the casualty reduction targets.
3.
Numbers of Accidents (
Table 1)3.1
Table 1 shows the numbers of injury road accidents
recorded by the police in 2004 and some earlier years. As
noted earlier, the figures relate only to those accidents
in which one or more people were killed or injured. Each
accident is classified according to the severity of the
most seriously injured casualty who was involved in it.
3.2 Following the trend of most years since 1989, the
total number of injury road accidents fell. In 2004, there
was a
provisional total of 13,738 accidents in which
someone was killed or injured, 1% fewer than in 2003. The
number of fatal accidents in 2004 (281) was 17 (6%) less
than the figure for 2003 (298), and was the second lowest
figure since records of fatal accidents began in 1970.
3.3 The provisional number of serious injury accidents
in 2004 (2,286) fell by 203 (8%) from the figure for 2003
(2,489) to the lowest figure recorded. Although the
provisional number of "slight injury" accidents in 2004
(11,171) was 1% more than the figure for 2003 (11,110), it
was still the second lowest number recorded since the
current records began in 1970.
All casualties and Slightly injured casualties
- from 1950
4.
Numbers of Casualties by Severity (
Table 2)4.1
Numbers fatally injured
Table 2 shows that the provisional total number of
people fatally injured in road accidents in Scotland in
2004 was 307. This was 24 (7%) lower than the figure for
2003, and was the second lowest since the current records
began more than 50 years ago (information about road
accident fatalities prior to 1947 is not readily
available). With a few exceptions, there has been a fall in
each year since 1978, and for most of that period the
figures show a clear, steady long-term downward trend,
particularly between 1982 and 1994. From that point, the
numbers appear to have been fluctuating around a less
pronounced downward trend.
4.2
Numbers seriously injured
There was a provisional total of 2,712 people recorded
as seriously injured in road accidents in 2004: 235 (8%)
fewer than in 2003. This is the lowest figure since records
of the numbers of serious injuries began in 1950. Since the
early 1980s, the long-term trend has generally been
downward, although there was an apparent levelling-off when
the figures for 1996, 1997 and 1998 showed very little
change, all being around 4,050. However, since then it
appears that the downward trend has resumed, with falls in
every year since 1998.
4.3
Numbers slightly injured
The provisional figure of 15,227 people recorded as
slightly injured in 2004 is 219 (1%) fewer than in 2003.
This is the lowest number recorded since 1955. Between 1970
and 1990, the figures fluctuated in a range which was
broadly 17,000 to 21,000. The fall between 1990 and 1995 in
the number of people with slight injuries, followed by an
apparent levelling-off at around 17-18,000 in each of the
years from 1996 to 1999, could have been a continuation of
that pattern. However, the falls in the figures in every
year since 1997 suggest a resumption of the downward
trend.
4.4
Total numbers of casualties
The provisional total number of casualties (of all
severities) in 2004 was 18,246 which was 478 (3%) lower
than in 2003. This represented the lowest number of
casualties since 1953. Between about 1970 and 1990, the
figures appeared to fluctuate greatly around a general
downward trend. Subsequently, the total number of
casualties fell markedly from the level of the most recent
"short-term" peak (which was over 27,000 in both 1989 and
1990), before appearing to level off: the figures for each
of the years from 1993 to 1998 were all within about 600
(3%) of the average of 22,332 for those six years. However,
it appears that the downward trend has resumed: the figures
for 2001 onwards were the first for almost 50 years to be
below 20,000.
Progress towards the 2010 casualty reduction
targets
(A) Killed or Seriously Injured
casualties
(B) Child Killed or Seriously Injured
casualties
(C) Slight casualties: rate per 100 million
vehicle kilometres
5.
Progress towards the casualty reduction targets for
2010 (
Tables 3-5)5.1
Killed or seriously injured casualties
There was a provisional total of 3,019 people killed or
seriously injured in 2004, 38% (1,819) below the 1994-98
average of 4,838. As noted in paragraph 2.2, the relevant
"indicative line" figure for 2004 is 25.3% below the
1994-98 baseline average. The reduction so far has been
greater than would be needed to achieve the 2010 target
fall of 40% by means of a constant annual percentage
reduction, so the figure for 2004 is below the relevant
indicative line.
Table 3 shows that this is also the case for most
modes of transport: the percentage fall from the 1994-98
average number of killed or seriously injured (
KSI) casualties is more than 25.3% for
most modes of transport, and so their figures would be
below their indicative lines (if it is assumed that the
percentage reduction should be the same for each mode of
transport).
About half of all the 3,019
KSI casualties in 2004 were car users.
The total of 1,555 car
KSI casualties in 2004 was 38% below the
1994-98 baseline average of 2,501, and therefore better
than the indicative line reduction. There were 741
pedestrian
KSI casualties in 2004, 46% fewer than
the annual average of 1,376 for the period 1994-98.
However, the number of motorcycle
KSI casualties in 2004 was 383, an
increase of 8% (28) from the 1994-98 average: this was the
only category of road user for which the figure in 2004 was
above the indicative line. There were 126 pedal cycle
KSI casualties, 49% below the 1994-98
average, and 93 goods vehicle user
KSI casualties, 46% below the baseline
average. The numbers of
KSI casualties were smaller for each of
the remaining categories of road user (bus/coach: 65;
others: 56).
5.2
Child killed or seriously injured casualties
There was a provisional total of 381 children killed or
seriously injured in 2004, 55% (461) below the 1994-98
average of 842, so the target of a 50% reduction by 2010
has been met. The indicative line figure for 2004 is 32.7%
below the 1994-98 average.
Table 4 shows that, in 2004, the figures for child
pedestrians, pedal cyclists and car users were all below
the indicative line. The figures for the other modes of
transport are very small.
About two-thirds of the 381 child killed or seriously
injured (
KSI) casualties in 2004 were
pedestrians. The number of child pedestrian
KSI casualties in 2004 was 245, 317
(56%) below the 1994-98 average of 562, and therefore
meeting the 2010 target of a 50% reduction. There were 77
child car
KSI casualties in 2004, a fall of 68
(47%) from the 1994-98 average of 145, and therefore their
numbers would be below the indicative line. The number of
child pedal cycle
KSI casualties in 2004 was 39, 61 (61%)
below the 1994-98 average of 100 and therefore meeting the
2010 target of a 50% reduction. As there are few child
KSI casualties for other modes of
transport, small fluctuations in their numbers can cause
apparently large percentage changes from the 1994-98
baseline average levels - so percentage changes for them
are not shown in Table 4.
5.3
Slightly injured casualties, and the slight casualty
rate per 100 million vehicle kilometres
At the time of writing, 2003 is the latest year for
which there is an estimate of the total volume of traffic
for Scotland as a whole. The slight casualty rate of 36.74
casualties per 100 million vehicle kilometres in 2003 was
21% below the 1994-98 baseline average of 46.42, so the
2010 target of a 10% reduction has already been
achieved.
About two-thirds of slight casualties in 2004 were car
users. The total number of car user slight casualties in
2004 was 9,895: 9% below the 1994-98 average of 10,859.
There were 2,290 pedestrian slight casualties, 24% fewer
than the 1994-98 average of 3,009. Bus and coach user
slight casualties totalled 844 in 2004, 7% fewer than the
1994-98 average, the number of pedal cyclist slight
casualties (638) was 38% below the baseline average, and
goods vehicle user slight casualties (554) were 5% fewer
than the baseline average. However, motorcyclist slight
casualties (594 in 2004) were 2% above the 1994-98
average.
6.
Casualties by Type of Road (
Table 6)6.1 In 2004, "non built-up" roads (see the definition in
section 10.3) accounted for about two-fifths of the total
number of casualties (43%: 7,766 out of 18,246). However,
perhaps because average speeds are higher on non built-up
roads than elsewhere, they accounted for over two thirds of
those killed (69%: 212 out of 307) and for over half of the
total number of killed and seriously injured combined (54%:
1,642 out of 3,019).
6.2 Compared with the 1994-98 average, the fall in the
total number of casualties has been greater for "built-up"
roads (22%) than for non built-up roads (12%). The
difference between the two types of road is less when one
compares the falls from the 1994-98 averages for the
numbers killed (down by 17% for built-up roads compared
with 19% for non built-up) but not the numbers killed or
seriously injured (falls of 44% for built up roads and 31%
for non-built up roads).
7.
Casualties by Mode of Transport (
Table 6)7.1
Car users
A provisional total of 11,450 car users were injured in
road accidents in 2004, representing just over three-fifths
of all casualties (63%: 11,450 out of 18,246). Of these
people, a total of 1,555 were either killed or seriously
injured, 168 of whom died. Non built-up roads accounted for
a little over half of all car user casualties (55%: 6,346
out of 11,450). Perhaps because average speeds are higher
on non built-up roads, they accounted for much higher
percentages of the total numbers of car users who were
killed (83%: 140 out of 168) or were killed or seriously
injured (76%: 1,180 out of 1,555).
The number of car user fatalities in 2004 was 9% lower
than in 2003, and was 20% below the 1994-98 average level.
The number who were killed or seriously injured fell by 8%
from 2003, and the total number of casualties (of all
severities) was 2% less than in the previous year. The
total number of car user casualties in 2004 was 14% below
the 1994-98 average.
7.2
Pedestrians
There was a provisional total of 3,031 pedestrian
casualties in 2004: a sixth of all casualties (17%: 3,031
out of 18,246). Of these, 741 were killed or seriously
injured (75 died). Perhaps because of the greater
vulnerability of pedestrians, 24% of pedestrian casualties
were killed or seriously injured (741 out of 3,031)
compared with 14% of all car users (1,555 out of 11,450).
About 95% of pedestrian casualties occurred on built-up
roads (2,877 out of 3,031). Perhaps because of higher
average speeds on non built-up roads, 54% of the pedestrian
casualties on such roads were seriously injured or killed
(83 out of 154) compared with 23% on built-up roads (658
out of 2,877).
7.3
Other casualties
Together, all other modes of transport accounted for a
fifth (21%) of casualties in 2004 (3,765 out of 18,246) and
for a similar proportion of the total number of killed and
seriously injured (24%: 723 out of 3,019). In 2004 there
were 977 motor cycle casualties, (12% fewer than 2003 but
4% above the 1994-98 average), of whom 383 (39%) suffered
fatal or serious injuries (41 died). A total of 909 bus and
coach users were injured, of whom 65 were killed or
seriously injured (3 died) - these low proportions
presumably being due to the greater protection of their
passengers by buses and coaches. The number of bus and
coach user casualties rose by 2% in 2004, but was 10% below
the 1994-98 average level. There were 764 pedal cyclist
casualties in 2004, (5% fewer than in 2003 and 40% below
the 1994-98 average level), including 126 (16%) killed or
seriously injured (7 died).
8.
Child Casualties (
Table 7)8.1
Child casualties
The provisional total of 2,358 child casualties in 2004,
represented about an eighth of the total number of
casualties of all ages (13%: 2,358 out of 18,246). Of the
child casualties, 381 were killed or seriously injured, of
whom 12 died. This was 5 deaths fewer than in 2003; the
total number of child casualties fell by 118 (5%). These
numbers were all considerably below the 1994-98 average
levels: the number of casualties was 39% lower, the number
of deaths was about two fifths of the 1994-98 average level
and the number of killed or seriously injured was 55% below
the 1994-98 average level.
8.2
Child pedestrians
There were 1,161 child pedestrian casualties in 2004.
They accounted for 38% of all pedestrian casualties of all
ages (1,161 out of 3,031). Of the child pedestrian
casualties, 245 were killed or seriously injured (8 died).
The number killed was 3 more than in 2003, but the total
number of killed and seriously injured was 10% lower than
in 2003. The figures were considerably below the
corresponding 1994-98 averages: the number of killed and
seriously injured child pedestrian casualties and the
overall number of child pedestrian casualties were,
respectively, 56% and 40% below the 1994-98 average
level.
8.3
Children in cars
In 2004, there were 793 child casualties in cars, 7% of
the total number of car user casualties
of all ages (793 out of 11,450). Of the child casualties
in cars, 77 were killed or seriously injured (3 died).
While the total number of child car users killed and
seriously injured was 47% below the 1994-98 average, the
total number of child car user casualties (of all
severities) was only 28% lower than the 1994-98
average.
8.4
Other child casualties
In 2004, there were 257 child pedal cycle casualties
(34% of the total of 764 pedal cycle casualties of all
ages), 81 child bus and coach user casualties (9% of the
total of 909 of all ages) and 66 other child casualties.
The child pedal cycle casualties included 39 serious
injuries, and no deaths. The total number of child pedal
cycle casualties in 2004 was 52% below the 1994-98 average,
and the total number of child bus and coach user casualties
was 55% below the 1994-98 average.
9.
Accidents and Casualties by Police Force and Local
Authority area (Tables
8 and
9)9.1
Tables 8 and 9 give the numbers of
accidents and numbers of casualties in each Police Force
area and each Local Authority area. When using these
tables, it must be remembered that these are
provisional figures, which are subject to
revisions due to (e.g.) late returns and amendments which
had not been added to the Scottish Executive's road
accident statistics database by the time that the
statistics for this bulletin were extracted. In addition,
there can be quite large percentage year-to-year
fluctuations in the figures for areas within Scotland,
particularly for those with the lower numbers. Therefore,
the annual average for the latest five years may be a
better guide to the "normal" level of the numbers than the
figures for the latest single year.
10.
Sources and definitions10.1
The sources of the data
The statistics in this bulletin were compiled from
returns made by police forces, which cover all accidents in
which a vehicle is involved that occur on roads (including
footways) and result in personal injury, if they become
known to the police. The vehicle need not be moving, and
need not be in collision - for example, the returns include
accidents involving people alighting from buses. "Damage
only" accidents are not included in this definition.
10.2
The definition of "severity" used in the Road Accident
statistics
The classification of the severity of an accident (as
"fatal", "serious" or "slight") is determined by the
severity of the injury to the most severely injured
casualty. The police usually record this information soon
after the accident occurs. However, if further information
becomes available which would alter the classification (for
example, if a person dies within 30 days of the accident,
as a result of the injuries sustained in the accident) the
police change the initial classification of the
severity.
For the purposes of the Road Accidents statistical
returns:
a
fatal injury is one which causes death less than 30 days after
the accident;
a
fatal accident is an accident in which at least one person is
fatally injured;
a
serious injury is one which does
not cause death less than 30 days after the
accident,
and which is in one (or more) of the following
categories:
(a) an injury for which a person is detained in hospital
as an in-patient
or (b) any of the following injuries (whether or
not the person is detained in hospital): fractures,
concussion, internal injuries, crushings, severe cuts and
lacerations, severe general shock requiring treatment
or (c) any injury causing death 30 or more days
after the accident;
a
serious accident is one in which at least one person is seriously
injured, but no-one suffers a fatal injury;
a
"slight" injury is any injury which is neither "fatal" nor
"serious" - for example, a sprain, bruise or cut which is
not judged to be severe, or slight shock requiring roadside
attention;
a
"slight" accident is one in which at least one person suffers
"slight" injuries, but no-one is seriously injured, or
fatally injured.
Over the years, improvements in vehicle design, and the
provision and use of additional safety features, together
with changes in the law (e.g. on the fitting and wearing of
seat belts), will all have helped to reduce the severity of
the injuries suffered in some accidents. Road safety
measures should also have reduced the levels of injuries
sustained. For example, if traffic calming schemes reduce
average speeds, people may suffer only "slight injury" in
collisions that previously would have taken place at higher
speeds and so might previously have resulted in "serious
injury".
However, it is also possible that some of the changes
shown in the statistics of "serious injuries" and "slight
injuries" may be due to changes in administrative
practices, which may have altered the proportion of
accidents which is categorised as "serious". For example,
the distinction between "serious" and "slight" injuries
could be affected by factors such as changes in hospitals'
admission policies. All else being equal, the number of
"serious injury" cases would rise, and the number of
"slight injury" cases would fall, if it became standard
procedure for a hospital to keep in overnight, for
precautionary reasons, casualties with a particular type of
injury. The increase in the number of "serious" injury
accidents in 1994 was partly attributed to a change in the
health boards' policies in admitting more child casualties
for overnight observation, which in turn changed the
classification of many injuries from "slight" to
"serious". The number of child casualties recorded as
having serious injuries in 1994 was 35% higher than in the
previous year. There could also be changes in hospitals'
procedures that would reduce the numbers of "serious
injury" cases. In addition, there is anecdotal evidence
that changes in procedures for assigning severity codes may
affect the categorisation of injuries. For example,
different severity codes might be assigned by a police
officer who was at the scene of an accident and by a clerk
who bases the code on a police officer's written
description of the accident.
10.3
Some other definitions
Built-up roads: accidents which occur on "built-up" roads are those
which occur on roads which have speed limits of up to 40
miles per hour (
ignoring temporary speed limits on roads for which
the normal speed limit is over 40mph). Therefore, an
accident on a motorway in an urban area would
not be counted as occurring on a "built-up" road,
because the speed limit on the motorway is 70mph. An
accident on a stretch of motorway with a temporary speed
limit of 30mph would
not be counted as occurring on a "built-up" road,
because the normal speed limit is 70mph.
Children: people under 16 years old.
Pedestrians: includes people riding toy cycles on the
footway, people pushing bicycles, people pushing or pulling
other vehicles or operating pedestrian-controlled vehicles,
those leading or herding animals, occupants of prams or
wheelchairs, and people who alight safely from vehicles and
are subsequently injured.
10.4
The targets for reducing road accident casualties
by the year 2010
In March 2000, the
UK Government, the Scottish Executive
and the National Assembly for Wales announced a new
national road safety strategy and casualty reduction
targets for 2010. These targets were introduced to focus on
achieving a further substantial improvement in road safety
over the next ten years, with particular emphasis on child
casualties. The targets, which are given in the document
"Tomorrow's roads - safer for everyone", are based
on the annual average casualty levels over the period 1994
to 1998. By 2010 it is hoped that there will be, compared
with the average for 1994-98:
- a 40% reduction in the number of people killed or
seriously injured in road accidents.
- a 50% reduction in the number of children killed or
seriously injured; and
- a 10% reduction in the slight casualty rate,
expressed as the number of people slightly injured per
100 million vehicle kilometres.
10.5
The calculation of the "indicative lines" shown in
the graphs
One way of assessing progress towards these targets is
to compare actual casualty numbers in each year with an
indicative line that starts at the baseline figure in 1996
and falls, by a constant percentage reduction in each
subsequent year, to the target for 2010. This is the
approach adopted by the
GB Road Safety Advisory Panel. The
indicative line starts at the baseline figure in 1996
because that is the middle year of the 1994-98 "baseline"
period. Other approaches could have been used: there are
many ways of producing lines that indicate how casualty
numbers might fall fairly steadily to the targets for
2010.
As the method adopted to produce the indicative lines
involves a constant percentage reduction in each year, the
lines are not straight. This is due to the "compounding
over the years" effect of constant annual percentage
reductions: each year's fall in an indicative line's figure
is calculated by applying a constant percentage reduction
to the line's number of casualties in the previous year
(which reduces each year, so the falls between one year and
the next get smaller and smaller). To two decimal places,
the falls are: 3.58% p.a. for killed or seriously injured
casualties; 4.83% p.a. for child killed or seriously
injured casualties; and 0.75% p.a. for the slight casualty
rate.
More statistics relating to the targets appear in
"Road Accidents Scotland". A table on page 46 of
"Road Accidents Scotland 2003" shows the
percentages of the baseline averages in each year which are
represented by each of the indicative lines.
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