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CHAPTER TWO: POST-ELECTION SURVEY OF COLINTON ELECTORS

This section of the report contains the findings of the post-election survey of Colinton residents conducted by MORI Scotland, jointly funded by City of Edinburgh Council and the Scottish Executive.

INTRODUCTION

The aim of the post-election survey was to gather detailed information on the experience of, and attitudes to, the all-postal scheme piloted in the Colinton by-election. The specific objectives were to examine:

• The level of awareness that the by-election was taking place;
• The level of support for the use of all postal vote ballots for future elections, and whether this varied by age and/or other demographic factors;
• What information, if any, about the all-postal voting scheme electors found useful;
• Whether there were any systematic reasons for non-voting;
• The use and experience of official home visits and assisted delivery points.

METHODOLOGY

MORI interviewed 500 residents registered on the electoral roll in the ward of Colinton. All interviews were conducted by telephone between 29 ^th October and 2 ^nd November, 2004.

The sampling procedure involved several stages.

• Telephone number look-ups operate on surnames and addresses, thus the first stage was to ensure that, for each address listed, each surname only appeared once. This was to improve the efficiency of the telephone number look-up process. Where an individual address included more than one surname, each different name was included, since it was not known under which name the telephone number would be registered.

• An automated system was used to look up telephone numbers. Out of a total of 6,589 names and addresses, telephone numbers were successfully found for 3,114, a success rate of 47%.
• Telephone numbers were matched back to the original file, so that for each named elector at an address, the appropriate telephone number was appended to their record.
• A systematic random sample of 1,218 electors was drawn from this list, and this sample was read into the sample management system for the project. At each number, interviewers attempted to achieve an interview with the named elector, with calls made over a range of times and days of the week. No substitutions were allowed.

The table below shows the outcome for each lead in the sample. As mentioned above, the sample was made up of 1,218 electors. Of these, 50 of the telephone numbers were bad numbers or the elector had moved. This left 1,168 eligible leads. Almost one in five electors refused (17%) and two in five (40%) were non-contact. This resulted in an overall response rate of 42%.

It should be remembered at all times that a sample and not the entire population of Colinton residents has been interviewed. In consequence, all results are subject to sampling tolerances which means that not all differences may be statistically significant.

Where percentages do not sum to 100%, this may be due to computer rounding, the exclusion of 'don't know' categories or multiple answers. Throughout the volume, an asterisk (*) denotes any value of less that half a percent.

AWARENESS AND PARTICIPATION

The Colinton Ward has a tradition of high turnout at elections. The officially recorded turnout of 61% in the by-election reflected this, and was in line with the turnout in the 2003 Council election. However, the 2003 election was an unusual one, and may have been 'artificially' high, because it coincided with the elections for the Scottish Parliament. The most recent full Council election in Edinburgh, unaffected in this way (the 1999 elections saw the Council and Scottish Parliament votes cast on the same day too) was in 1995, when the turnout was 52%. Of course the context in 1995 was also unique, because it was the first election since the re-organisation of local government in Scotland, which produced unitary local government to replace the old District and Regional councils.

Respondents to this survey were even more likely to have voted than the Colinton electorate as a whole - perhaps because, as voters engaged in the process, they were more willing to participate in the survey, or because of a degree of over-claim in whether they voted. Without checking back to the marked register, it is not possible to say which of these two factors is the more significant.

Very few respondents said they were unaware of the by-election (2%), and most of those aware of the by-election knew that it was postal-only (97%) - corresponding to 95% of the electorate. Awareness of how the votes could be cast was lower among the small number of respondents who said that they did not vote (86% of whom said they knew that it was a postal-only ballot).

More than eight in ten electors responding to the survey (85%) said they voted in the by-election, and their responses to other questions suggest that they are fairly consistent in their participation in elections. Electors in Colinton were most likely to say they always vote in General elections, but substantially less likely to say the same of European elections.

Source: MORI

Non-participation in the by-election reflects people's likelihood of voting in elections generally. Thus those residents who did not vote in the recent by-election are significantly more likely to say they never vote in other elections. One in ten (11%) say they never vote in General elections rising to one in three (36%) non-voters in the by-election who state that they never vote in European Parliament elections.

Source: MORI

However, there is one group that does not fit this pattern - those who oppose the use of postal-only ballots in future elections. This group was more likely to say that they always vote in General elections (89% compared with 82% of those in support of postal-only ballots), always vote in Scottish Parliament elections (79% compared with 64% of supporters of postal-only ballots) and always vote in European elections (69% compared with 52%). Although there was no statistically significant difference in their claimed propensity to vote in Council elections, they were markedly less likely to say they voted in the by-election (83% said that they voted, compared with 92% of those who generally support the idea of postal-only ballots).

Source: MORI

Prior to the by-election, relatively few voters in Colinton had experience of postal voting. Ninety-five per cent of those who said they voted in the 2001 General Election said they did so at a conventional polling station, while just 3% said they used a postal vote. Similarly, 90% of those who said they voted at the Scottish Parliament and Local elections in 2003 said they voted at a polling station, and just 6% said they did so by post. Of the remaining 4%, 1% voted by proxy and 3% voted but can't remember which method they used. Finally, 88% of those who said they voted in the 2003 European election said they voted at a polling station, with 7% once again saying they did so by post. Five percent voted, but could not remember which method they used.

The most common reason why residents said they did not vote in the Colinton by-election was that they forgot. Three in ten (29%) of those who did not vote say this is the reason. One in ten (11%) did not vote because they don't care about the local Council or were too busy and didn't get round to it. Five per cent of non-voters say they did not vote because they wanted to vote in the traditional way, by going to a polling station.

Source: MORI

The reasons for not voting are broadly in line with findings from other MORI research where lack of interest in politics, lack of information from the candidates and circumstances on the day are among the key reasons why people don't vote. ²

SOURCES OF INFORMATION

Few electors say that they received helpful information about how to cast their vote from any source other than the material they received with their ballot papers. Three quarters say this provided them with helpful information (76%), rising to 80% of those who went on to vote, but falling to 47% of those that say they did not vote in the by-election. Of this latter group, around three in ten said that they did not receive any helpful information.

One in ten said that they received helpful information from the candidates or political parties (9%), and just 2% said that the media was a useful source.

Source: MORI

Electors in Colinton recall receiving their ballot papers and accompanying information over a number of days from Saturday 16 ^th October onwards, ¹although as many as four in ten (38%) were unable to recall when their papers arrived. One in eight (12%) says they received their papers on Monday 18 ^th October and one in seven (14%) on Tuesday 19 ^th October. Three per cent of residents say they received their voting papers after Saturday 23 ^rd October.

Source: MORI

REACTION TO THE ELECTORAL PROCESS

More than eight in ten Colinton residents who voted in the by-election (86%) rated their overall experience of voting by post in the by-election as good, including six in ten (61%) who rated their experience as very good. Fewer than one in ten residents rated their experience as poor, and sixteen times as many said their experience was very good as said it was very poor.

Source: MORI

The experience of those who support the future use of postal only ballots was overwhelmingly positive in the by-election (78% saying it was very good, and a further 20% saying it was fairly good), but even those who oppose future postal only ballots generally had a positive experience this time (34% very good and 31% fairly good). Having said that, one in five of those who oppose future use of postal only ballots said their experience in the by-election was poor.

Electors were asked about their experience, or perception of, a number of different parameters of the process of postal voting. There is little difference in the balance of opinion expressed by those who voted, and the perceptions of those who did not vote in the by-election (although there is some difference in the intensity of views). However, there are substantial differences between the perceptions or experiences of those who support and those who oppose the future use of postal only ballots. This suggests that the kind of issues explored here have some relevance to people's support or opposition for the process, but is less significant in their decision on whether to participate.

Source: MORI

Source: MORI

Although the small sub-sample size means that the analysis is at best indicative, it does at least appear that young electors may be less wary of the reliability of postal ballots, and their susceptibility to fraud and abuse.

The overall proportion that said they felt the postal ballot process was safe from fraud and abuse was broadly in line with that found by ICM in a survey of adults in the 2004 English pilot regions, where 51% said they felt it was safe ³, although in the ICM survey, just 34% said they felt it was unsafe from fraud and abuse.

LESSONS FOR THE FUTURE

The Council offered a number of different facilities to people who may not have been familiar with postal voting - an official home visit to help complete the ballot paper, a telephone helpline to answer queries, and assistance and delivery points in Colinton where the completed ballot paper could be returned in person. Awareness of these services was patchy, however.

A majority of electors in Colinton were aware that the Council offered assistance and delivery points (80%) and a telephone helpline (68%), but fewer than half (46%) were aware that an official home visit was available. Awareness of the assistance and delivery points in Colinton was substantially higher than was found among electors in the 2004 all postal pilots in England where 50% of the electorate said they were aware of assistance and delivery points on offer in their area. ⁴

Source: MORI

Those who did not vote in the by-election were the most likely group to have been unaware of the services offered. A majority of all non-voters were not aware of the different services, with more than eight in ten (86%) not aware of official home visits, compared to fewer than half (48%) of voters.

Only the assistance and delivery points were actually used by respondents to the survey. One in ten (10%) used them to return their ballot paper in person and the vast majority of these people found the points helpful (88%). One in ten (13%) found the service unhelpful. The ballot box at Colinton library was the most commonly used of the assistance and delivery points with 8% of voters returning their ballot papers there. The overwhelming majority of voters returned their completed ballot paper by post (89%).

Source: MORI

Reflecting attitudes towards safety and reliability, those voters who oppose the use of postal only ballots in future elections were significantly more likely than those who support their use to have delivered their completed ballot papers by hand. One in five (19%) who oppose future postal ballots hand delivered their paper compared with only 5% of those who support future postal ballots. A majority of those who oppose the use of future postal-only ballots, however, still returned their ballot papers by post (80%), although significantly less than those who support future use (95%).

The majority of those who voted by post and were unaware of the option to hand deliver said they were happy with the way in which they voted. One in ten (9%) would have preferred to have delivered their ballot paper by hand if they knew the option existed. Three-quarters (77%) were happy to post.

Given that nine in ten residents (89%) posted their ballot paper, rather than hand delivered it, it is interesting to note that half of all residents have concerns about the safety of postal voting. As mentioned before, 50% of Colinton residents expressed concerns that voting by post is open to fraud and abuse.

This is particularly relevant, because previous MORI research has found that safety from fraud and abuse is one of the most salient aspects for the electorate in terms of the voting process. MORI research for the Electoral Commission in 2003 found that privacy (seen as most important by 33%) and the vote being safe from fraud and abuse (30%) are most commonly seen as important factors for voters. Convenience is important to one in five (20%) and ease of use to one in six (15%) ⁵.

Source: MORI

While concerns about the possibility of fraud or abuse in postal voting are common, they are not caused by personal experience. Half of those who think that voting by post is open to fraud and abuse (50%) hold this view because of concerns read or heard in the media. One in five just say that is the way they feel, for no particular reason (20%), while just four per cent hold this view because of some personal experience. Opinions are uniform across all sub-groups with no one group favouring one reason more than another group.

These opinions are also reflected elsewhere. MORI research among the public in the 2003 electoral pilot schemes in England revealed that concerns over fraud and abuse in postal voting were key issues for the electorate. Two in five (38%) of those who felt voting by post was poor in terms of being safe from fraud and abuse said that ' it's not secure/people can find out how you voted' and one in four (26%) that 'someone else can vote in your place/steal your vote'. One in five (17%) also felt that 'you can't guarantee your vote getting there'⁶.

Although there are concerns about fraud and abuse in postal voting, many Colinton residents are supportive of the use of postal only ballots for future elections. Half of all residents (51%) support their use compared to one in three (31%) who oppose their use. This is broadly in line with the 2004 English pilot areas where 55% of those living in pilot regions supported holding future elections exclusively by post. ⁷

Source: MORI

Support is spread across all sectors of the population in Colinton, with residents who voted in the recent by-election among the most supportive (54%). Those who voted are significantly more likely than non-voters to support the use of postal-only ballots in future elections (54% vs 30%). Analysis by age is inconclusive, as it reveals as much about engagement with voting as it does about attitudes to the specific method of postal ballots. Thus the tendency to be ambivalent about postal ballots is as common among younger electors as it is to either support or oppose. Among other age groups, most express a clear view one way or the other, and the balance between those supporting and opposing the method is broadly consistent.

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