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Scoping Study into the Cost of Flooding Using the August 2004 event as a case study Final Report

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Appendix D: - Economic Analysis

Table D1: Damage Data

Damage Type

Methodology/Source

Brief Description of Approach

Values Taken from Source

Key Sources of Uncertainty

Other Notes/Comments

Low

Mid

High

Damage to building fabric

Multi-Coloured Manual

Applies to residential properties (per property)

LOW: 1 in 10 year flood, mean depth 0.2m above floor level

MID: 1 in 50 year flood, mean depth 0.4m above floor level

HIGH: 1 in 100 year flood, mean depth 0.5m above floor level

£6,110

£8,650

£9,350

Based on average for all residential properties; flood duration <12 hours

May 2002 prices - need to be updated

Damage to household inventory items

Multi-Coloured Manual

Applies to residential properties (per property)

LOW: 1 in 10 year flood, mean depth 0.2m above floor level

MID: 1 in 50 year flood, mean depth 0.4m above floor level

HIGH: 1 in 100 year flood, mean depth 0.5m above floor level

£16,250

£17,680

£18,120

Based on average for all residential properties; flood duration <12 hours

May 2002 prices - need to be updated

Damage to services in commercial properties

Multi-Coloured Manual

Based on values per property, using High Street Shop (211), with typical area of 550m2, DDBasic depth-damage data

LOW: mean depth of 0.2m

MID: mean depth of 0.4m

HIGH: mean depth of 0.5m

£14,480

£34,784

£56,981

Used High Street Shop as figures in Tables 5.6 and 5.7 give very high numbers when multiplied by typical areas

Values are still high (per property) and may over-estimate damages - Hotel (511) gives lower values, but pub, café all are much higher

£109,383

£308,097

£511,102

Damage to moveable equipment in commercial properties

Multi-Coloured Manual

Based on values per property, using High Street Shop (211), with typical area of 550m2, DDBasic depth-damage data

LOW: mean depth of 0.2m

MID: mean depth of 0.4m

HIGH: mean depth of 0.5m

£32,188

£95,166

£159,494

Used High Street Shop as figures in Tables 5.6 and 5.7 give very high numbers when multiplied by typical areas

Values are still high (per property) and may over-estimate damages - Hotel (511) gives lower values, but pub, café all are much higher

Damage to fixtures and fittings in commercial properties

Multi-Coloured Manual

Based on values per property, using High Street Shop (211), with typical area of 550m2, DDBasic depth-damage data

LOW: mean depth of 0.2m

MID: mean depth of 0.4m

HIGH: mean depth of 0.5m

£40,874

£109,590

£173,393

Used High Street Shop as figures in Tables 5.6 and 5.7 give very high numbers when multiplied by typical areas

Values are still high (per property) and may over-estimate damages - Hotel (511) gives lower values, but pub, café all are much higher

Damage to stock in commercial properties

Multi-Coloured Manual

Based on values per property, using High Street Shop (211), with typical area of 550m2, DDBasic depth-damage data

LOW: mean depth of 0.2m

MID: mean depth of 0.4m

HIGH: mean depth of 0.5m

£21,841

£68,557

£121,234

Used High Street Shop as figures in Tables 5.6 and 5.7 give very high numbers when multiplied by typical areas

Values are still high (per property) and may over-estimate damages - Hotel (511) gives lower values, but pub, café all are much higher

Clean-up costs

Multi-Coloured Manual

Per property, irrespective of flood duration, house type, age and social class of residents

LOW: average clean-up costs taken from Table 4.4 for flood depths below 0.1m

MID: taken as average of low and high costs

HIGH: average clean-up costs taken from Table 4.4 for flood depths above 0.1m

£5,725

£7,855

£9,985

Bungalows and ground floor flats may have higher clean-up costs.

Includes costs of dehumidifiers (should not be included in indirect costs)

Erosion of assets (including land)

Multi-Coloured Manual Land values taken from Nix (2004)

Prices are per hectare multiplied by 0.45 to remove effect of subsidies

LOW: Based on per ha price of land in NE

MID: Based on per ha price of land in Yorkshire and Humber

HIGH: Based on per ha price of land in NW

£1,802

£2,538

£2,915

Land prices refer to areas in England

Change in agricultural output

Multi-Coloured Manual

Prices are per hectare for the economic gross margin for extensive grass

LOW: Very bad drainage

MID: Bad drainage

HIGH: Good drainage

£109

£134

£155

Prices are 2001 values

extensive grass

Multi-Coloured Manual

Prices are per hectare for the economic gross margin for intensive grass

LOW: Very bad drainage

MID: Bad drainage

HIGH: Good drainage

£209

£266

£328

Prices are 2001 values

intensive grass

Multi-Coloured Manual

Prices are per hectare for the economic gross margin for grass/cereal rotation

LOW: Very bad drainage

MID: Bad drainage

HIGH: Good drainage

£173

£266

£341

Prices are 2001 values

grass/cereal rotation

Multi-Coloured Manual

Prices are per hectare for the economic gross margin for all arable:

LOW: Very bad drainage

MID: Bad drainage

HIGH: Good drainage

£136

£259

£341

Prices for all cereal, extensive and intensive arable are very similar, combined for ease of use

Prices are 2001 values

all arable

Impact on environmental sites

Environmental Stewardship Scheme

Based on per ha payments:

LOW: Entry level stewardship for Less Favoured Area

MID: Entry Level

HIGH: Organic Entry Level

£15

£30

£60

No data for other levels, e.g. higher level

Seem low compared with ESA payments??

Worry about future flooding

Defra methodology

Applies to residential properties (per property discounted over 100 years (to change, alter cell I13))

LOW: 1 in 100 year standard of defence

MID: 1 in 50 year standard of defence

HIGH: 1 in 10 year standard of defence

£716

£4,351

£6,297

99

years

28.62336529

Damage to historic buildings

Replacement costs (building cost database)

Based on costs of repairing walls, replastering, etc.

LOW: £80/m2 of wall area

MID: £100/m2 of wall area

HIGH: £120/m2 of wall area

£80

£100

£120

Based on 'normal' building costs rather than historic building specific

2001 prices; seem low and may be difficult to get m2 of wall affected!!

Damage to physical and/or mental health, death or injury

HM Treasury (2004): Managing Risks to the Public: Appraisal Guidance, Draft for Consultation, October 2004

Based on Table 5.2, source: Highways Economics Note No. 1, 2002 - SLIGHT injury

LOW: medical and ambulance costs only

MID: medical and human costs only

HIGH: medical, human costs and lost output

£740

£9,080

£10,830

2002 values

Damage to physical and/or mental health, death or injury

HM Treasury (2004): Managing Risks to the Public: Appraisal Guidance, Draft for Consultation, October 2004

Based on Table 5.2, source: Highways Economics Note No. 1, 2002 - SERIOUS injury

LOW: medical and ambulance costs only

MID: medical and human costs only

HIGH: medical, human costs and lost output

£10,030

£123,900

£140,450

2002 values

Permanent evacuation of area

Market price costs from National Statistics, Survey of Mortgage Lenders, 2001

Based on average dwelling prices:

LOW: terraced house in Scotland

MID: average (all dwellings) in Scotland

HIGH: detached house in Scotland

£58,190

£73,570

£121,705

2001 prices

Disruption to household due to flood damage

Based on rented accommodation costs. Source: CORE Annual Digest 2002/03

Based on average weekly rent (all regions):

LOW: 1 bedroom property

MID: 2 bedroom property

HIGH: 3 bedroom property

£51

£60

£68

All regions does not include Scotland

Rents seem low?

Evacuation costs and emergency services costs

Multi-Coloured Manual

Based on 10.7% of residential property damages (from above), per property

£2,393

£2,817

£2,939

Applies to residential properties only

Emergency repair and response costs

Based on actual costs in Wales from Oct/Nov 200 floods

Based on costs of emergency repair:

LOW: £50,000

MID: £100,000

HIGH: £150,000

£50,000

£100,000

£150,000

Based on data for Wales

2000 prices

Loss of utility services

Cost of providing alternatives?

Loss of income/earnings

Working days lost; source: National Statistics - Survey of Personal Incomes, Inland Revenue

Based on average income from Scotland (per day):

LOW: for females: £14,100 per year over 225 working days per year

MID: mean of males/females

HIGH: for males: £21,400 per year over 225 working days per year

£63

£79

£95

2000/2001

Loss of leisure and recreational opportunities

Multi-Coloured Manual

Increased travel costs: road traffic disruption

DETR (2000) in Multi-Coloured Manual

Based on costs per non- PSV vehicles ( e.g. car, LGV, OGV) travelling at different speeds (can take diversion length at same speed, or change in speed)

LOW: 20 kph (12 mph)

MID: 50 kph (31 mph)

HIGH: 100 kph (62 mph)

£0.13

£0.22

£0.50

Based on DETR (2000)

Need length of diversion (then are assuming that travel speeds are the same)

Based on costs for PSV (per PSV) travelling at different speeds (can take diversion length at same speed, or change in speed)

LOW: 20 kph (12 mph)

MID: 50 kph (31 mph)

HIGH: 100 kph (62 mph)

£0.84

£1.50

£3.46

Based on DETR (2000)

Need length of diversion (then are assuming that travel speeds are the same)

Increased travel costs: rail disruption

Halcrow (2000): Costs of Substitute Bus Services

LOW: Based on 800km/day bus services

MID: Based on provision of emergency 800km/day bus services

HIGH: Based on provision of 1200km/day bus services, visiting three intermediate stations

£480

£600

£805

2000 prices, focused on SE of England

Doesn't take into account costs of time delays, etc.

Increased cost of shopping and recreational opportunities

Increase in time and travel costs ( MCM)

Cost of repairs to roads

LOW/MID/HIGH: £2000/m based on average cost of repairing roads of £2,000,000 pr km

£2,000

£2,000

£2,000

Based on JA assumptions

Costs from failure of guide level bathing water standards

Eftec (2002)

LOW: Small beach (rural beach with few facilities)

MID/HIGH: Small resort (beach with some resort facilities)

£48,000

£96,000

£96,000

2001 prices, based on England & Wales

Relates to a 2.3% reduction in risk of catching gastroenteritis. It is assumed that this is equivalent to a 2.3% increased risk (move from mandatory standards to guide values). Is a per year value, hence, relates to failure for one whole year

Table D2: Summary of Damage Estimates

Damage Type

TOTALS (to 2 Sig Figs)

Based on initial estimates and incomplete information therefore, are approximate estimates only

Low

Mid

High

Economic

£6,600,000

£15,000,000

£27,000,000

Environment

£6

£13

£30

Social

£610,000

£2,500,000

£3,700,000

TOTAL

£7,200,000

£18,000,000

£31,000,000

Notes: Includes only those impacts that can be valued in monetary terms

DATA ENTRY:

Low

Mid

High

No. residential properties affected

169

186

211

Permanent evacuation or damages

properties are damaged, but can still be lived in

Based the low values as the best estimate we can make of the properties affected, and then estimated that we may have missed some so medium becomes 10% above and high becomes 25% above our initial estimate.

No. commercial properties affected

20

22

25

Based the low values as the best estimate we can make of the properties affected, and then estimated that we may have missed some so medium becomes 10% above and high becomes 25% above our initial estimate.

No. weeks for which rented accommodation is required

1690

1860

2110

Number of households affected:

1

Because we are sure that about 169 properties flooded we reckon people may be out for longer so took your 10 week estimate.

No. working days lost (total)

438

482

547

assumed 2 days for every property flooded

No. hectares land eroded

0.4

0.44

0.5

We have assumed each landslide was quite large (400m2) and then that we did not pick up all the landslides that occurred. This is partly observsational in that there appeared to be more smaller landslides

No. hectares agricultural land affected (not eroded)

20

22

25

Type of land affected:

extensive grass

assumed to be twice that eroded

No. hectares environmental sites affected

0.4

0.44

0.5

assumed to be same as agirucltural land

No. people injured - SLIGHT

78

107

146

based on injury risk of 0.2 to 0.3

No. people injured - SERIOUS

0

1

1

based on injury risk of 0.001, 0.002, 0.003

Area of wall of historic buildings affected (m2)

not known

No. days that train service is out of operation

2

4

6

based on best estimates from descriptions given

No. emergency repairs required

20

30

50

based on number of 'flooding' events and total number of events (rounded to nearest 10): actually 21 and 53

Diversion length (km) for road traffic

170

212.5

340

Type of vehicle affected:

non- PSV

9 diversions required, assumed 30km for A9, 100km for A81 and then smaller

Length of road needing repairs

500

750

1000

average length of road to repair of 50m, 75m and 100m over 10 landslides

Number of beaches failing guide EC Bathing Water Standards

0

0

0

EC Bathing Water Directive allows three spills a season due to adverse weather. No single beach exceeded three spills, therefore, no damage costs are expected to have been incurred

Table D3: Damage Estimates Scotland

Damage Type

Values Taken from Source

Numbers Affected

Required Units

Damage Estimates (£)

Economic

Environment

Social

Low

Mid

High

Low

Mid

High

Low

Mid

High

Low

Mid

High

Low

Mid

High

Low

Mid

High

E

Damage to building fabric

£6,110

£8,650

£9,350

169

186

211

No. residential properties affected

£1,032,590

£1,608,900

£1,972,850

£1,032,590

£1,608,900

£1,972,850

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

E

Damage to household inventory items

£16,250

£17,680

£18,120

20

22

25

No. commercial properties affected

£325,000

£388,960

£453,000

£325,000

£388,960

£453,000

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

E

Damage to services in commercial properties

£14,480

£34,784

£56,981

20

22

25

No. commercial properties affected

£289,600

£765,248

£1,424,525

£289,600

£765,248

£1,424,525

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

E

Damage to moveable equipment in commercial properties

£32,188

£95,166

£159,494

20

22

25

No. commercial properties affected

£643,760

£2,093,652

£3,987,350

£643,760

£2,093,652

£3,987,350

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

E

Damage to fixtures and fittings in commercial properties

£40,874

£109,590

£173,393

20

22

25

No. commercial properties affected

£817,480

£2,410,980

£4,334,825

£817,480

£2,410,980

£4,334,825

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

E

Damage to stock in commercial properties

£21,841

£68,557

£121,234

20

22

25

No. commercial properties affected

£436,820

£1,508,254

£3,030,850

£436,820

£1,508,254

£3,030,850

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

E

Clean-up costs

£5,725

£7,855

£9,985

169

186

211

No. residential properties affected

£967,525

£1,461,030

£2,106,835

£967,525

£1,461,030

£2,106,835

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

E

Erosion of assets (including land)

£1,802

£2,538

£2,915

0.4

0.44

0.5

No. hectares affected

£721

£1,117

£1,458

£721

£1,117

£1,458

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

E

Change in agricultural output

£109

£134

£155

20

22

25

No. hectares affected

£2,180

£2,948

£3,875

£2,180

£2,948

£3,875

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

N

Impact on environmental sites

£15

£30

£60

0.4

0.44

0.5

No. hectares affected

£6

£13

£30

£0

£0

£0

£6

£13

£30

£0

£0

£0

S

Worry about future flooding

£716

£4,351

£6,297

169

186

211

No. residential properties affected

£120,934

£809,240

£1,328,697

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£120,934

£809,240

£1,328,697

N

Damage to historic buildings

£80

£100

£120

0

0

0

m2 of wall affected

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

S

Damage to physical and/or mental health, death or injury: SLIGHT

£740

£9,080

£10,830

78

107

146

No. people injured

£57,720

£971,560

£1,581,180

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£57,720

£971,560

£1,581,180

S

Damage to physical and/or mental health, death or injury: SERIOUS

£10,030

£123,900

£140,450

0

1

1

No. people injured

£0

£123,900

£140,450

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£123,900

£140,450

E

Permanent evacuation of area

£58,190

£73,570

£121,705

169

186

211

No. residential properties affected

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

E

Disruption to household due to flood damage

£51

£60

£68

1690

1860

2110

No. weeks for which rented accommodation is required

£86,190

£111,600

£143,480

£86,190

£111,600

£143,480

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

S

Evacuation costs and emergency services costs

£2,393

£2,817

£2,939

169

186

211

No. residential properties affected

£404,336

£524,020

£620,190

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£404,336

£524,020

£620,190

E

Emergency repair and response costs

£50,000

£100,000

£150,000

20

30

50

No. emergency repairs required

£1,000,000

£3,000,000

£7,500,000

£1,000,000

£3,000,000

£7,500,000

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

S

Loss of utility services

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

S

Loss of income/earnings

£63

£79

£95

438

482

547

No. working days lost

£27,594

£38,078

£51,965

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£27,594

£38,078

£51,965

S

Loss of leisure and recreational opportunities

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

E

Increased travel costs: road traffic disruption

£0.13

£0.22

£0.50

170

212.5

340

Diversion length (km) for road traffic

£22

£47

£170

£22

£47

£170

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

E

Increased travel costs: rail disruption

£480

£600

£805

2

4

6

No. days trains service is out of operation

£960

£2,400

£4,830

£960

£2,400

£4,830

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

S

Increased cost of shopping and recreational opportunities

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

E

Cost of road repairs

£2,000

£2,000

£2,000

500

750

1000

Length of road needing repairs

£1,000,000

£1,500,000

£2,000,000

£1,000,000

£1,500,000

£2,000,000

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

N

Costs from failure of bathing water standards

£48,000

£96,000

£96,000

0

0

0

Number of beaches failing Bathing Water Standards

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£0

£7,213,437

£17,321,946

£30,686,559

£6,602,848

£14,855,135

£26,964,048

£6

£13

£30

£610,584

£2,466,797

£3,722,482

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Page updated: Tuesday, May 17, 2005