The Scottish Government

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INFORMING GOVERNMENT PROGRAMMES

Measuring delivery and impact

6. There has been a huge improvement in the range of statistics produced in recent years, particularly on the economy and on the opportunity gap. In the last few months the Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics programme has resulted in the release of a wide range of data at local level.

7. Ministers have been particularly keen that all the statistics required to measure the delivery of the Partnership Agreement are in place. This has been done or if not work is in hand to develop them.

8. We now need to make further progress on measuring the impact of Partnership Agreement commitments and government programmes generally. This will be a major priority in the coming months.

9. Much of the action to address these issues occurs within each portfolio and is described in each topic plan. The following sections set out some of the corporate work we will pursue to achieve these aims.

High-level summary of key statistics

10. We will produce a new high level document providing a summary of the key statistics relevant to measuring the impact of government programmes, and facilitating access to more detailed statistics for those who require it.

11. This will involve drawing together, on a topic basis, the key statistics together with contextual information to aid interpretation. The aim is to provide high level information that can then be explored in more detail and will link into the full range of statistics covered in bulletins.

Providing a database of targets

12. Better information on targets will help to improve understanding of what they are and how they are being measured.

13. We have already produced, for the ScotStat Board, an initial spreadsheet giving information on all the main government targets in place. This is now being updated and developed further. The intention is that the database should focus on whether inputs, outputs and outcomes are being measured or should be measured and allow Departments to fill gaps in the evidence base.

14. Work has also been developing on local government performance, initially through identifying the local government contribution to these targets.

Improving target setting

15. Setting targets and measuring performance are crucial elements of modern government. Whilst the selection of targets and performance indicators is essentially a political matter, the Statistician Group is uniquely placed to advise on the measurement issues.

16. The ScotStat Board agreed to issue guidance on target setting. We will consider this and further action within the Executive and bring forward proposals for Ministers to consider.

Advising on the impact of Scotland's demographic changes

17. The Registrar General already provides a wide range of quality statistics on the country's population and will continue to develop the advice he provides on demographic issues. However Scotland faces a demographic challenge that is unique in Europe and we need to consider developing our capacity to forecast and analyse the impact of demographic change on key service areas. We are developing a programme of work to take this forward.

Improving timeliness

18. Everyone wants statistics to be as up to date as possible. Significant improvements have already been made to timeliness and other improvements are under way. Access to administrative data sets (which also gives huge opportunities for added-value statistics) and electronic data capture provide further opportunities for improvement.

19. However there are constraints:

• Providing data is a burden on suppliers who are often involved in delivery of front-line services. We remain committed to avoiding an unnecessary burden on them.
• Sometimes the statistics are derived from administrative processes which are subject to delays.
• There are resources limit on how much can be produced at the same time.
• In many cases there is no possibility of reducing processing and production time without compromising quality.

20. The individual topic plans contain information on recent and planned improvements.

21. In general we do not favour the production of more provisional estimates as a means of improving timeliness. It diverts effort from the timeliness and quality of the final figures. Furthermore, provisional estimates could easily lead to decision making or Parliamentary/media debate on statistics results which by their very nature are known to be of insufficient quality.

Improving relevance and dropping statistics that are no longer needed

22. A lot of statistics we currently produce are directly relevant to government programmes. Others provide essential context (e.g. population, benefits statistics and school leaver destinations) or are required for other good reasons e.g. EC obligations, resource allocation, management or Inspection purposes or to meet recognised needs of other users.

23. The statistics we collect are already under regular review with users and providers. However there is almost always some scope to develop information to keep it relevant to a changing agenda and remove certain collections each year or reduce their frequency. Again details of recent and planned developments are contained in individual topic plans.

Improving the way we analyse and publish statistics

24. The publication of statistics is often structured around the collection process. This in part stems from the principle of publishing data as soon as it is ready. The downside is that it can provide a much less coherent picture of what is occurring and people often find it more difficult to access the information they need and more especially to access focused analysis of the basic statistics.

25. So improving dissemination and access to our statistics is an important priority including a new high level summary of key statistics that we are developing.

26. The other main areas we are addressing are as follows

• We will start the second phase of re-developing our internet site to provide more efficient access to data sets by users. This will complement the work on the high level summary.
• We will improve the form and content of statistics releases.

MODERNISING THE WAY WE COLLECT AND PRODUCE POPULATION AND SOCIAL STATISTICS

The new population and social statistics system

27. We are now embarking on a major modernisation of the way we produce statistics across a large range of social and demographic matters - encompassing sample population surveys, the Census, Neighbourhood Statistics, administrative data, developments in population and personal address registration, and related estimation systems.

28. The impact of these changes will be unprecedented. They will improve greatly the range of statistics and analysis we produce and the ways in which they are used. They will change the nature of our relationship with users and providers, and they will greatly improve quality, efficiency and timeliness.

Background

29. There have been a number of major developments in social and demographic statistics in recent years:

• Neighbourhood Statistics - which has seen a substantial growth in the availability of data at a very small area level and improved access systems.
• Developments in the use of administrative data and other personal data sets to provide a much greater range of information, at smaller geographical level and to do so more efficiently and timeously. This has been greatly supported by the investment in Neighbourhood Statistics.
• Better co-ordination of surveys through the Scottish Population Survey Co-ordinating Committee.

30. But the pace of change is gathering:

• Office for National Statistics (ONS) plans to combine a range of UK Government personal surveys into a Continuous Population Survey are moving forward.
• There is the prospect of enhanced population registration and developments in unique property referencing through the Definitive National Address project.
• The range of data available from administrative sources continues to grow.
• ONS and GROS are considering whether a combination of administrative and survey data, linked to address/population registers, could provide Census type data accurately and cost-effectively - and much more frequently than the traditional Census of Population.

31. We now need to bring all these strands together in Scotland - in tandem with UK developments. We are working closely with UK Government and Wales and Northern Ireland, sharing expertise and contributing to the UK development process.

32. We also need the ONS and other UK departments to contribute as producers of key statistics. The recent Allsopp review interim report adds weight to this.

Key developments

33. Against this backdrop of major long term change, the following developments are under way:

Neighbourhood Statistics

• The new Index of Deprivation was produced in May 2004 using improved data and capable of being updated on a frequent and consistent basis rather than every ten years from the Census. This is being followed through and leading to much better information and analysis of the progress in tackling area deprivation.
• We now have for the first time a fixed small area statistical geography (data zones) which will greatly improve the scope for joining up data on different issues and for analysing changes over time, as well as providing regular data for smaller and more suitable areas than before. Its uses will be taken forward during the year.
• Continued development of new data in health, care, housing, access to services, community well-being, and the environment.
• The major emphasis will be on developing analysis of small area statistics and the index of deprivation particularly in relation to 'Closing the Opportunity Gap'.
• More information on Neighbourhood Statistics is contained in the Social & Welfare topic plan and in the Neighbourhood Statistics website.

Developments in personal data

• The collection and analysis of pupil level data through the ScotXed project will continue.
• The Department for Work & Pensions is developing a Work and Pensions longitudinal database which has the potential to provide immensely powerful data on poverty and the transition to and from work and the incomes, all on a longitudinal basis and with better small area estimation. The SE Labour Market and Income Statistics branches are currently looking at the feasibility of accessing this data and the potential uses. The potential for matching with other sources such as education data will be explored subject to data protection and privacy constraints.

Survey co-ordination and integration

• We are currently engaged, through the Scottish Population Surveys Co-ordinating Committee, in a process of improving co-ordination and harmonisation of the personal surveys currently carried out within Scotland.
• We have asked statistics branches to look at data across all surveys (and other sources) adding value to the current system of separate survey management.
• We need to decide the way forward on the key issue - do we integrate some or all Scottish Surveys into the UK integrated survey, do we manage integration across Scottish surveys in parallel with and in collaboration with ONS or do we continue as at present? The Scottish Household Survey, our funding for the Labour Force Survey and the various other major and smaller scale surveys all come into this.

Population and property registration

• GROS is keeping in close touch with proposals for identity cards and the Citizen Information Project (a thin population register linking existing departmental databases)
• GROS and SE are also working with the Definitive National Address project and we will develop its use in statistical systems.

Developments in population, household and housing statistics

• Small area analysis relating the Census, population counts and other sources.
• Improvements in migration statistics and estimation in parallel with UK developments.
• A new project based in GROS but working with Development Department and Communities Scotland to produce population, households and housing estimates in an integrated way.

Future of demographic statistics

• The review of how demographic statistics might be provided in future is being taken forward by a group consisting of SE Office of the Chief Statistician and GROS. A consultation paper will be issued.

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