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EDUCATION MAINTENANCE ALLOWANCES (EMAS): ATTAINMENT OF NATIONAL QUALIFICATIONS IN THE SCOTTISH PILOTS: final report to the scottish executive

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APPENDIX 4: TABLES RELATNG TO EAST AYRSHIRE PILOT

Table A4.1: Factors influencing full-time participation in national qualifications in the first year after S4 (results of binary logistic regression model)

Whole sample

Low attainers

Estimate

SE

Estimate

SE

Number of Credit awards at Standard Grade

0.39

0.02

omitted

Standard Grade attainment (point score)

0.20

0.01

0.25

0.01

School free-meal entitlement (zscore)

-0.07

0.03

-0.07 ns

0.04

Living in low SES area

-0.20

0.06

0.17 ns

0.10

C1 in 2000 (vs C1b & C2b in 1998-99)

2.99

0.10

5.37

0.46

C2 in 2001 (vs C1b & C2b in 1998-99)

2.86

0.10

5.23

0.46

C3 in 2002 (vs C1b & C2b in 1998-99)

3.63

0.11

5.89

0.46

Phase 1 EMA Pilot (vs control)

-0.04 ns

0.09

0.47 ns

0.57

Phase 1 EMA pilot in 2000

0.15 ns

0.14

-0.51 ns

0.59

Phase 1 EMA pilot in 2001

0.39

0.14

-0.02 ns

0.59

Phase 1 EMA pilot in 2002

0.24 ns

0.14

-0.15 ns

0.59

Reference category

-5.61

0.15

-8.56

0.49

Notes: Results are shown as log-odds of full-time participation.

Reference category refers to person in the pre- EMA baseline cohorts (C1b&C2b), in the control area, who attended a school with average free-meal entitlement, who lived in an area that was not low SES, and had no credit level awards or points at Standard Grade.

'ns' denotes the factor is not statistically significant at the 95% confidence level

Table A4.2: Factors influencing full-time participation in national qualifications in the 2nd year after S4 (results of binary logistic regression model)

Whole sample

Low attainers

Estimate

SE

Estimate

SE

Number of Credit awards at Standard Grade

-0.09

0.02

omitted

Standard Grade attainment (point score)

0.24

0.01

0.24

0.02

School free-meal entitlement (zscore)

-0.04

0.02

-0.10

0.05

Living in low SES area

-0.07 ns

0.04

-0.08 ns

0.11

C1 in 2001 (vs C1b & C2b in 1999-00)

0.08 ns

0.08

1.41

0.23

C2 in 2002 (vs C1b & C2b in 1999-00)

0.67

0.08

1.91

0.22

C3 in 2003 (vs C1b & C2b in 1999-00)

1.14

0.08

2.11

0.22

Phase 1 EMA Pilot (vs control)

0.14

0.07

0.66

0.22

Phase 1 EMA pilot in 2001

-0.03 ns

0.11

-0.25 ns

0.30

Phase 1 EMA pilot in 2002

0.04 ns

0.11

-0.33 ns

0.28

Phase 1 EMA pilot in 2003

-0.06 ns

0.11

-0.53

0.28

Reference category

-5.13

0.16

-6.26

0.29

Notes: Results are shown as log-odds of full-time participation.

Reference category refers to person in the pre- EMA baseline cohorts (C1b&C2b), in the control area, who attended a school with average free-meal entitlement, who lived in an area that was not low SES, and had no credit level awards or points at Standard Grade.

'ns' denotes the factor is not statistically significant at the 95% confidence level

Table A4.3: Average number of national courses and units attempted and passed in the first post-compulsory year (mean of all cohorts in pilot and control areas)

C1b: 1998

C2b: 1999

C1: 2000

C2: 2001

C3: 2002

Courses attempted

• pilot area

1.53

1.59

2.28

2.58

3.01

• control area

1.47

1.55

2.25

2.51

2.67

Courses passed

• pilot area

1.02

1.06

1.75

2.08

2.35

• control area

1.01

1.10

1.86

2.03

2.16

% courses passed

• pilot area

58

58

74

78

77

• control area

60

62

80

79

78

Units attempted

• pilot area

-

-

12.95

13.95

16.93

• control area

-

-

12.11

13.39

15.93

Units passed

• pilot area

-

-

9.25

11.14

12.39

• control area

-

-

9.16

10.57

11.65

% units passed

• pilot area

-

-

72

78

73

• control area

-

-

75

78

72

Sample Size

• pilot area

1502

1493

1405

1403

1459

• control area

1573

1422

1417

1419

1383

Note: Units include those taken as component parts of courses, and extra units

Table A4.4: Highest SCQF level of courses attempted in first post-compulsory year

SCQF level

C1b: 1998

C2b: 1999

C1: 2000

C2: 2001

C3: 2002

pilot

6 Higher

51.0

50.9

50.5

47.1

47.8

5 Intermediate 2

8.9

12.0

15.3

4 Intermediate 1

3.1

2.8

2.2

None attempted

49.0

49.1

37.6

38.1

34.7

N (=100%)

1502

1493

1405

1403

1459

control

6 Higher

49.8

50.4

52.2

48.8

47.4

5 Intermediate 2

0.1

7.8

9.5

12.1

4 Intermediate 1

3.7

1.1

2.7

None attempted

50.2

49.5

36.3

40.7

37.7

N (=100%)

1573

1422

1417

1419

1383

Table A4.5: Highest SCQF level of courses passed in first post-compulsory year

SCQF level

C1b: 1998

C2b: 1999

C1: 2000

C2: 2001

C3: 2002

pilot

6 Higher

38.9

38.6

38.3

39.8

37.3

5 Intermediate 2

0.1

15.8

15.9

21.1

4 Intermediate 1

4.6

4.3

5.1

3 Access 3

0.1

0.1

None passed

61.0

61.4

41.2

39.8

36.5

N (=100%)

1502

1493

1405

1403

1459

control

6 Higher

38.1

39.2

45.0

40.8

40.2

5 Intermediate 2

10.8

14.4

15.8

4 Intermediate 1

0.1

4.7

2.3

3.7

3 Access 3

0.1

None passed

61.9

60.8

39.4

42.5

40.1

N (=100%)

1573

1422

1417

1419

1383

Table A4.6: Factors influencing attainment in national qualifications in the first year after S4 (results of linear regression model)

1. Whole sample

2. Low attainers

3. Controlling for college entries

Estimate

SE

Estimate

SE

Estimate

SE

Number of Credit awards at Standard Grade

3.86

0.16

omitted

7.81

0.16

Standard Grade attainment (point score)

1.34

0.08

1.70

0.07

1.48

0.07

School free-meal entitlement (zscore)

-0.56

0.25

-0.14 ns

0.32

-0.84

0.25

Living in low SES area

-2.20

0.54

0.84 ns

0.75

-2.96

0.52

C1 in 2000 (vs c1b&c2b in 1998-99)

2.66

0.94

18.01

1.20

27.13

0.92

C2 in 2001 (vs c1b&c2b in 1998-99)

7.20

0.94

19.97

1.21

33.27

0.92

C3 in 2002 (vs c1b&c2b in 1998-99)

9.42

0.95

23.00

1.22

39.74

0.93

Phase 1 EMA Pilot (vs control)

1.32 ns

0.76

0.02 ns

0.92

-2.26

0.73

Phase 1 EMA pilot in 2000

0.69 ns

1.33

-1.01 ns

1.70

0.31 ns

1.29

Phase 1 EMA pilot in 2001

2.16 ns

1.33

3.16 ns

1.71

4.83

1.29

Phase 1 EMA pilot in 2002

2.04 ns

1.33

8.01

1.69

6.03

1.29

NQ at college

-6.42

1.01

Reference category

-8.04

1.14

-16.93

1.16

-17.80

1.11

Table A4.7: Average number of national courses and units attempted and passed in the second post-compulsory year (mean of all cohorts in pilot and control areas)

C1b: 1999

C2b: 2000

C1: 2001

C2: 2002

C3: 2003

Courses attempted

• pilot area

0.85

1.02

1.07

1.19

1.14

• control area

0.82

0.90

1.07

1.07

1.09

Courses passed

• pilot area

0.51

0.73

0.86

0.94

0.90

• control area

0.54

0.66

0.84

0.85

0.87

% courses passed

• pilot area

60

72

82

80

80

• control area

65

71

79

79

80

Units attempted

• pilot area

-

-

5.04

6.59

7.05

• control area

-

-

4.49

5.79

6.19

Units passed

• pilot area

-

-

3.99

4.67

4.96

• control area

-

-

3.53

4.04

4.27

% units passed

• pilot area

-

-

78

72

72

• control area

-

-

79

70

70

Sample Size

• pilot area

1502

1493

1405

1403

1459

• control areas

1573

1422

1417

1419

1383

Note: Units include those taken as component parts of courses, and extra units

Table A4.8: Highest level of course attempted in second post-compulsory year

SCQF level

C1b: 1999

C2b: 2000

C1: 2001

C2: 2002

C3: 2003

pilot

7 CSYS/ Advanced Higher

10.3

10.6

11.5

15.1

13.9

6 Higher

27.2

26.0

24.1

22.4

21.5

5 Intermediate 2

1.5

2.4

3.4

4.7

4 Intermediate 1

0.5

0.8

0.4

0.2

3 Access 3

None attempted

62.5

61.4

61.2

58.7

59.6

N (=100%)

1502

1493

1405

1403

1459

control

7 CSYS/Advanced Higher

9.2

10.1

11.0

10.9

11.8

6 Higher

26.9

26.0

27.6

24.9

25.3

5 Intermediate 2

0.6

2.3

2.8

3.3

4 Intermediate 1

0.3

0.1

0.6

0.5

3 Access 3

None attempted

63.9

63.0

59.1

60.9

59.1

N (=100%)

1573

1422

1417

1419

1383

Table A4.9: Highest level of course passed in second post-compulsory year

SCQF level

C1b: 1999

C2b: 2000

C1: 2001

C2: 2002

C3: 2003

pilot

7 CSYS/Advanced Higher

6.6

7.4

9.4

11.0

11.2

6 Higher

22.1

22.7

20.8

19.4

18.8

5 Intermediate 2

3.5

5.8

6.8

7.0

4 Intermediate 1

1.0

1.3

1.1

1.2

None passed

71.3

65.4

62.8

61.7

61.8

N (=100%)

1502

1493

1405

1403

1459

control

7 CSYS/Advanced Higher

6.9

7.9

8.0

7.8

8.5

6 Higher

21.7

21.7

24.3

21.7

22.4

5 Intermediate 2

1.5

4.8

5.7

6.3

4 Intermediate 1

0.7

0.7

0.6

0.8

None passed

71.4

68.1

62.2

64.3

62.0

N (=100%)

1573

1422

1417

1419

1383

Table A4.10: Factors influencing attainment in national qualifications by the end of the 2nd year after S4 (results of linear regression model)

Whole sample

Low attainers

Estimate

SE

Estimate

SE

Number of Credit awards at Standard Grade

11.76

0.26

omitted

Standard Grade attainment (point score)

2.81

0.12

2.88

0.11

School free-meal entitlement (zscore)

-1.47

0.41

-0.72 ns

0.50

Living in low SES area

-5.16

0.87

0.24 ns

1.17

C1 in 2001 (vs c1b&c2b in 1999-00)

29.10

1.51

22.17

1.88

C2 in 2002 (vs c1b&c2b in 1999-00)

39.79

1.50

24.55

1.89

C3 in 2003 (vs c1b&c2b in 1999-00)

48.08

1.52

27.23

1.90

Phase 1 EMA Pilot (vs control)

-0.97 ns

1.21

2.27 ns

1.43

Phase 1 EMA pilot in 2001

1.22 ns

2.13

-1.60 ns

2.64

Phase 1 EMA pilot in 2002

7.09

2.13

4.00 ns

2.67

Phase 1 EMA pilot in 2003

8.64

2.13

9.20

2.63

Reference category

-25.85

1.83

-24.02

1.81

Notes: Results are shown as attainment point score.
Reference category refers to person in the pre- EMA baseline cohorts (C1b&C2b), in the control area, who attended a school with average free-meal entitlement, who lived in an area that was not low SES, and had no credit level awards or points at Standard Grade.
'ns' denotes the factor is not statistically significant at the 95% confidence level

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Page updated: Thursday, April 7, 2005